2024 Iran–Israel conflict

In a clip posted by the Israeli army, there is a hole that they say it was the site of an Iranian missile collision, and the missiles hit the base with a very high error, without hitting a shed or military equipment.

But with a little attention, we realize that the pit was dug by a human and an excavator.

They didn't even have time to transport the hills created by the soil from the digging of the pit and the soil resulting from the digging can be clearly seen.

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/107753

The Israelis can't stop lying.
They will do everything possible to show that the Iranian attack was ineffective and that Israel remains invincible.

Ibn Riad, [14/4/2024 17:17]
🧵 THE IRANIAN RETALIATION
PART 1

The Iranian retaliation to the occupation's flagrant, illegal aggression against the Iranian consulate in Damascus came last night, and it was resoundingly successful across multiple layers, not only militarily but also strategically.

This success is evident across multiple sectors, as we will explore.

All the noise trying to deny this success is manufactured damage-control by the US, the entity and Arab/Gulf normalizers.

The attack was layered, not just functionally, but also in its aims & goals:

Military: The first real-world trial of Iran's new ballistic paradigm

Popular: Iran & Axis of Resistance as champions of Arab-Muslim world

Economic: Immense cost to enemy

Strategic: New direct phase, zugzwang

Militarily, the most sophisticated and concentrated air defenses — not only of the entity but also its US master throughout the entire region — abjectly failed to deal with what was ultimately a limited attack, relative to Iran's fullest capabilities.

Middle East Observer: (https://x.com/ME_Observer_/status/1779347101257797873)
The Iranian attack was huge and successful. Their target was the airbase that struck the embassy. It required 300+ projectiles because Israel has the most protected airspace in the world:

It's own air defense layers
It's own airforce which participated to hunt missiles & drones manually
US airforce
Jordanian airforce
UK Royal Aircorce
Jordanian air defenses
American air defenses
American radars in the entire region
American navy

The vulnerability of the entity has been exposed.

For the second time since October 7th — and for all the myths of IOF 'military might' — it is painfully obvious they are unable to defend themselves alone, and even unable to defend themselves with full US support:

Scott Ritter: (https://x.com/RealScottRitter/status/1779304880139559275)
Eye for an eye.

Iran struck Nevatim air base with at least seven of its new hypersonic missiles.

Nevatim is home to the F-35 fighters that attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus.

Not a single Iranian missile [that was intended* to make impact] was intercepted.

Let that sink in.

Israel is defenseless.
[*As opposed to the decoy drones and missiles meant to distract the Iron Dome while the ballistic missiles hit their targets]

For all the screams from both US/Occupation as well as Gulf/Normalizer voices, the Iranian attack not only was successful, but exceeded (https://x.com/Aly_jezzini/status/1779339238124707911) all expectations:

Long-standing IOF/US doctrine is to deny (https://x.com/asadabukhalil/status/1779320905380065723) all losses unless indubitably exposed.

The resistance records operations because it's the only way the IOF admit their losses, so it's no surprise that they claimed "no losses" through the gritted teeth of their military censorship.

It's been said that 'you can tell a lie from its enormity', and their claim of a ludicrous 99% success rate in interceptions tells you they are lying through their teeth, as does the endless footage we have of failed interceptions (https://x.com/revolutionaryem/status/1779336513274405047) and direct hits.

The fact that they had to resort to manual fighter jet shootdowns (https://x.com/ME_Observer_/status/1779324186042708230) is another huge point of failure: in the case of a full-blown open war, this is not a feasible nor sustainable way to conduct defense.

CONTINUED

Ibn Riad, [14/4/2024 17:18]
THE IRANIAN RETALIATION
PART 2

Indeed, in addition to trying to salvage the reputation of western military technology and doctrine while also reassuring disillusioned, terrified settlers; a major goal of downplaying (https://x.com/SinaToossi/status/1779305542743167210) the Iranian success may well be the intention to avoid further escalation.

The drawn-out build-up to this response served the purpose of extending the state of hysteria among settlers in the entity, but it also may have been intentional in allowing the US and the occupation to prepare all the air defenses they could muster.

Rania Khalek: (https://x.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1779423485401379022)
THE KEY TAKEAWAY FROM THE IRANIAN RETALIATION ON ISRAEL:

This is a deterrence win for Iran.

Had Israel been taken by surprise and not had the days long preparation to mitigate the impact of an Iranian attack this large, the damage would have been huge.

There is no way Israel could have intercepted hundreds of Iranian missiles without a week of its allies putting defenses in place and Iran intentionally taking its time.

A real war would NOT be telegraphed in advance so Israel can prepare with a symphony of air defenses from its allies.

Biden understands the risks posed by further escalation, especially to US forces, which is why he told Netanyahu he will not back an Israeli counterstrike.

The equation in the region has changed and Iran did it masterfully and responsibly without igniting the big war.

The goals for this would be threefold:

As Rania Khalek says above, it allowed for a huge strike without igniting a full war.

Thus, it remains a message, saying: "in case of real war, you will not have this amount of notice" — leaving the results of that to their imagination.

This message is then made all the more powerful when we see that, even with all their preparation, their full extent of air defenses were overwhelmed.

This would be the second goal of the delay: it allowed Iran to go up against the full extent of air defenses amd beat them.

It allowed Iran to test the full defensive capabilities of the US and occupation, to their greatest extent.

The data recorded last night will be invaluable (https://x.com/IbnIbnRiad/status/1779529373571330370) for any wider war, without Iran having revealed anything of its own.

Strategically, yesterday signalled a new paradigm amongst the entire Axis of Resistance: All members are now actively, directly involved against the entity.

The floodgates that cannot be closed.

The bind that the occupation has been in for months becomes still tighter:

Amal Saad: (https://x.com/amalsaad_lb/status/1779466137215844471)
The region is entering uncharted territory where the previous strategic paradigm and rules of engagement no longer apply. From now on, any Israeli action will be met with a direct and collective response by the Axis.

Regardless of what Israel does next, there is no going back to the status quo ante. This is no longer the Iran that just supports resistance movements with weapons and training. This is the Iran that directly engages in strikes against Israel.

This is a new proactive phase of the Resistance Axis' "offensive defense" strategy, which was officially launched on October 8 when Hizbullah and later other Resistance Axis allies directly intervened in the conflict against Israel.

The US and other Western and Arab allies have also taken the unprecedented step of directly defending Israel. Yesterday night proved that Israel's self-sufficiency in security and defense matters is limited. Israel will not be fighting any of its future wars independently.

Iran's masterful performance puts the enemy in yet another impossible bind.

Iran demonstrated some of their capabilities, showing the enemy that it cannot stop even a long-telegraphed, limited attack — never mind an extensive surprise attack.

Ben Amer, Yemeni Armed Forces: (https://x.com/BIG__Brother7/status/1779334137196814744)
Biden asked Netanyahu not to respond to Iran. In fact, the Israelis will not be able to swallow the blow and act as if nothing had happened because what happened will affect Israel’s status and dominance in the region and the world. As for Iran, this strike moved it to the stage of direct confrontation, and this has its importance in the future conflict.

CONTINUED

Ibn Riad, [14/4/2024 17:19]
THE IRANIAN RETALIATION
PART 3

Indeed, the non-response of the enemy was fully baked into the attack, the manner it was conducted, what it revealed, and the position (https://x.com/Aly_jezzini/status/1779339249822601688) it put the enemy in.

The fact that even the 1st wave of missiles hit, the fact that enemy air defenses were depleted...

The strike was just limited enough that it gave the US — who absolutely does not want a regional war — just enough room to force the entity to swallow it up and not respond.

The enemy is thus once more in the same place as the past year, except even more intensely: zugzwang

'Zugzwang' (from German 'compulsion to move') is a situation found in chess and other turn-based games wherein one player is put at a disadvantage because of their obligation to make a move; a player is said to be "in zugzwang" when any legal move will worsen their position.

Part of the intent of alarmist reports (https://x.com/IbnIbnRiad/status/1777471373545271596) from the US over past weeks was to raise the ceiling of expectations, to make it impossible for Iran to act without seeming either (a.) underwhelming or (b.) unreasonably aggressive; and therefore at fault for any escalation.

The Iranians turned this on its head and caught the world off-guard.

The attack was massive in scope — much bigger than what the US actually expected, despite their words — and though the actual sites hit were limited in quantity, they were qualitatively of incredible significance.

In particular, the heavy-hitting Khayber-Shekan ballistic missiles were aimed at the IOF airbase (https://x.com/AryJeay/status/1779301585425666139) from which the attack on the consulate was launched and out of which raids on Gaza are launched — a highly symbolic goal, a show of power, and meaningful retaliation.

By combining this with the literal biggest drone attack in history, setting up hours of looming dread for the hysterical settlers, setting off red alerts across the entity, the attack was anything but underwhelming while still avoiding an irresponsible escalation.

A master-stroke.

The occupation comes out more vulnerable, weak and helpless than they have ever been in history, and all the more so if they are forced — by US pressure, but above all by Iranian design — to refrain from responding.

Escalating brings the Zionist entity destruction; deescalating brings them implosion.

And as for the hordes of settlers, imperialists, sectarians and normalizers barking at the tops of their little canine lungs...

The louder they bark, the more you realize just how bad the events of last night have been for them.
•••


https://t.me/IbnRiadTG/247

Supreme National Security Council of Iran:

— In this attack, Iran took the least punitive action against the occupying regime and we avoided targeting economic facilities and infrastructure.

— The "Operation True Promise" was carried out with the aim of punishing the aggressor and with a deterrent approach. If the Zionist regime wants to continue doing evil against Iran, it will receive a response at least 10 times stronger than the recent attack.


https://t.me/iswnews_en/10758

‘Just a slap in the face’: Iran’s retaliatory strike against Israel merely a preview of its full capabilities

“For Iran this was a very small attack. This was just a slap in the face,” Dr. Mohammad Marandi, a political analyst and professor at Tehran University, told Sputnik, commenting on the Islamic Republic’s massive missile and drone barrage against military targets in Israel Saturday night, which came nearly two weeks after an Israeli airstrike hit Iran’s Embassy compound in Damascus, killing seven senior IRGC officers.

“Iran’s drone and missile capabilities are very advanced, and the Iranians only used a handful of their advanced missiles. The rest were decoys that forced Israelis to use up $1.3 billion worth of anti-missile missiles. So, the Israelis know that if they’ll continue this, then the Iranians will hit them much harder,” Marandi said.

Dr. Faod Izadi, an associate professor in the department of American studies at Tehran University, noted that Iran had the legal right and what amounts to strategic responsibility to mount Saturday night’s missile and drone campaign.

“Iran attacked Israel because of Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Consulates under international law, under the Vienna Convention are part of that country’s territory, its soil. And under Article 51 of the UN Charter, if a country is attacked, that country can respond, defend itself,” Izadi said.

“Iranian leaders realize that if they don’t have a serious response, these types of attacks will continue and increase. And that’s why they responded. So, it shows Iran’s capacity. And it shows the fact that Iran is willing to use this capacity,” Dr. Izadi emphasized.


https://t.me/geopolitics_live/21446

— / NEW: At least 9 Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israeli strategic airbases

The Nevatim airbase in the Negev was struck by 5 ballistic missiles, damaging the main runway, a C-130 transport aircraft, and several storage facilities.

Ramon airbase, also located in the Negev, was struck by at least 4 ballistic missiles, causing unspecified damage.

– U.S. Officials to ABC News

@Middle_East_Spectator

— / NEW: The heaviest damage of Iran's ballistic missile attack occurred on a secret intelligence base in the Golan Heights, for which the IDF has imposed a media ban, so the damage cannot be assessed – Hebrew Sources

I think was a case similar to the Iranian attack on the USA base in Iraq in retaliation for Qasem Soleimani death  The Iranians had the choice to flatten the USA base there and kill everyone in it. But they decided not to. It was purely to show USA that they are willing to attack such targets something USA most likely thought Iran never had the balls to do so. Iran proved them wrong. It was a warning saying the next time you do such we will retaliate with a heavier more meaningful attack i.e flatten the base. They did the same to Israel here, its a warning saying hey we have the means to reach you, and flatten you, as well as highlighting the Air defence cost to Israel for such a attack. Israel now knows that If they over step the mark Iran could send ten times the amount of drones from different directions, and the same goes for ballistic and cruise missiles. And they wouldn't be giving them advance warnings this time. And we could also see a ground invasion directly after it from Lebanon and Syria from Hezbollah and Iranian paramilitary groups the end result wouldn't be good for Israel.

Anyone looking at this with a sane mind would realise this is the case. Nobody pre-warns their enemy and enemies allies of planned attacks hours(although most likely days) in advance while firing them directly over allied territory where they have time to prepare to intercept them. I pretty much see this whole issue being put to bed now. Unless Israel plans on a further sneaky attack in the future then we will see the true fireworks light up Israel and no amount of air defence systems, allied aircraft will save them.

The Grand Mufti of Oman expresses his support for Iran and appreciates Tehran for striking “the Zionist regime”.

// Details of the US military's participation in countering Iranian missiles and drones, according to a senior US defense official:

— During Iran's attack on Israel, no American fighter jet was engaged with Iranian missiles. In other areas, no aircraft from the American fleet in the Red Sea was involved with Iranian missiles or drones.

— USS Carney destroyer shot down a ballistic missile in the eastern Mediterranean.

— USS Arleigh Burke destroyer also shot down three ballistic missiles before they could threaten Israel.


https://t.me/iswnews_en/10759

Milei explains why the "bond of freedom" with Israel matters

The president of Argentina, Javier Milei, expressed his concern about the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and highlighted the importance of the "bond of freedom" between his country and Israel, remembering the biblical character Moses.

Via: RT.

Financial Times: As the Iranian missiles approached Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Zion Wing, the plane took off from the Nevatim air base to a safe zone.

Eugenio Argentina wrote:— / NEW: At least 9 Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israeli strategic airbases

The Nevatim airbase in the Negev was struck by 5 ballistic missiles, damaging the main runway, a C-130 transport aircraft, and several storage facilities.

Ramon airbase, also located in the Negev, was struck by at least 4 ballistic missiles, causing unspecified damage.

– U.S. Officials to ABC News

@Middle_East_Spectator

The ziofilth are only admitting to those impacts that were caught on camera and uploaded to web. If it wasn't captured on camera (and most strikes wouldn't be) then they will deny deny deny as usual (and our corrupt corporate tribe-owned MSM will work hard to amplify their denials).

What was evident from footage was that a few of the strikes were by warheads with very fast terminal attack speeds, while most were much more sedate. It looks like the Iranians used a few of their new (allegedly) hypersonic missiles

Financial Times, citing an Israeli official: The Iranian drone squadron was designed to explore Israel’s responses and track the locations and routes of its defense assets.

Isos wrote:Israel has the best AD in the world.

Yeah sure. Just pretend that Russia doesn't exist and you can maintain your delusions with a trouble-free mind.

When I watch footage of those heavy warheads slamming into the Nevatim airbase, I'm thinking that it could easily have been the Knesset bldg, or the Dimona reactor complex

Even the most unhinged, stupid and hate-filled ziotrash exceptionalist must be feeling the icy grip of fear clutching at their throats. If they give in to their natural proclivities and dare to cross over the line then they know the hammer will descend, and they will not like the consequences....

The fact that they had to resort to manual fighter jet shootdowns (https://x.com/ME_Observer_/status/1779324186042708230) is another huge point of failure: in the case of a full-blown open war, this is not a feasible nor sustainable way to conduct defense.

This is catastrophic for the west... they will never be able to concentrate an air defence system the way Israel should be able to with the small amount of territory and all the outside help they get, yet they still performed worse than the Russian Army on the front line in Ukraine.

This is a real blow to their whole defence paradigm based around aircraft... which is good against an enemy with little or not air force that you can outnumber ten to one and have a two or three generation advantage in aircraft and missiles, but against China or Russia they would not just struggle... they would fail.

And having based both defence and attack on air power they will have to resort to nukes very very quickly... which makes the question about what they intend to spend their money on in the future very interesting... will they continue to waste money on fighters... every HATO country seems to have their own fighters... all of different incompatible types, and none of the force multipliers like AWACS or inflight refuelling or JSTARS types... or even transport types that would be more useful that half a dozen more fighters in a conflict in the third world where the enemy don't have any aircraft.

Israel has the best AD in the world.

Their kill rate for ballistic targets was pathetic. The Crimea has better air defence than Israel despite orders of magnitude differences on how much was spent.

It seems their kill rate for drones and cruise missiles was not that great either.

Obviously any targets can be overwhelmed, but very few incoming missiles seem to have been actually intercepted.

The awesome thing is that Kiev is begging... demanding air defence missiles... I suspect they wont get them now... because they will be going to Israel.

Well done Iran... and lets hope Israel does something stupid again...

A defence solely based on missiles with conventional warheads is also of Limited value in a prolonged war : ( 1 ) Missiles are expensive to make . ( 2 ) They are difficult to store in bunkers in large numbers . ( 3 ) Limited yield , compared to Aircraft .

Suppose Iran used 150 old Rockets , and that Iran had 3000 Rockets in storage . Then it could sustain an " offensive , " posture for a month at best ! What then ? It has few operational Jets ! To launch offensives .

Therefore being self - congratulating oneself , however successful an " operation , " may actually be harmful.. This approach is costly and ineffective in long run and is not a true asymmetric approach . Certainly because , it does not stop a larger or more determined enemy from attacking .

Iran , like North Korea needs Nukes . Even if Iran bolstered it's conventional forces , with hundreds of modern fighters and tens of modern Ships and Submarines , still it could not deter a larger army using symmetric conventional approach ! I find , carrying out this operation as insane , without first displaying a Nuclear force .

Also it did not kill , as far as we know a similar number of top Israeli scientists and Generals ! It should have at least equalled the number or more ! It still shows too much " concern , " for escalation ! Too much fear !


Just saying ........

Or the warhead has to change to something else.

Most countries friendly to Iran wouldn't want Iran to get Nukes. So that would be a problem.

In this regard, then Iran needs to develop something that can magnify the blasts. Heavier warheads, possibly new chemical mixture, maybe somehow come up with a Thermobaric warhead similar to that of the FOAB/MOAB but capable of being launched on a missile.

Would be massive missile, and heavy. But build enough of them would be possibly be cheaper and still effective.

nomadski wrote:




The choice for Russia / China is : ( 1 ) Nuclear Iran , like North Korea , safe from defeat or invasion , continuing to be a partner . ( 2 ) Afghanistan , Iraq , Libya , Syria .....

I dont know why you used large size for wording, maybe a case of mental disorder.  But anyway....

Nukes haven't stopped US and west to picking a fight with Russia in Ukraine and constant threats either.  Or their weapons being used against Russian civilians.

I am sorry, but yours, phst and others bombastic remarks is far from reality is really, really annoying. It makes me think that critical thinking isn't very common at all.

Perhaps the only advantage that lsraeI enjoys over lran is Air Power.

The lsraeIi air force is small but modern, whereas lran suffers from a lack of 4th gen fighter aircraft.  However, they'll compensate that with enough cruise and ballistic missiles.

While a ground invasion of lsraeI is not possible since lran doesn't share a border with lsraeI, and both the sides lack naval vessels that can transport tanks, I noticed that lranian homegrown tanks suffer from several flaws in design, easy picking for lsraeli helos, but like I said, a ground war is unlikely.

While there is no evidence to suggest US, UK fighter are downing lranian cruise missiles, lran needs to improve the quality of these missiles. Unlike Russia cruise missiles that we see in Ukraine that flies a nap of the Earth profile, lranian cruise missiles spend a lot of time at very high altitude, allowing PAC-3 , Iron Dome, Arrow 3 to engage them.