Ibn Riad, [14/4/2024 17:17]
🧵
THE IRANIAN RETALIATION
PART 1
The Iranian retaliation to the occupation's flagrant, illegal aggression against the Iranian consulate in Damascus came last night, and it was resoundingly successful across multiple layers, not only militarily but also strategically.
This success is evident across multiple sectors, as we will explore.
All the noise trying to deny this success is manufactured damage-control by the US, the entity and Arab/Gulf normalizers.
The attack was layered, not just functionally, but also in its aims & goals:
Military: The first real-world trial of Iran's new ballistic paradigm
Popular: Iran & Axis of Resistance as champions of Arab-Muslim world
Economic: Immense cost to enemy
Strategic: New direct phase, zugzwang
Militarily, the most sophisticated and concentrated air defenses — not only of the entity but also its US master throughout the entire region — abjectly failed to deal with what was ultimately a limited attack, relative to Iran's fullest capabilities.
Middle East Observer: (https://x.com/ME_Observer_/status/1779347101257797873)
The Iranian attack was huge and successful. Their target was the airbase that struck the embassy. It required 300+ projectiles because Israel has the most protected airspace in the world:
It's own air defense layers
It's own airforce which participated to hunt missiles & drones manually
US airforce
Jordanian airforce
UK Royal Aircorce
Jordanian air defenses
American air defenses
American radars in the entire region
American navy
The vulnerability of the entity has been exposed.
For the second time since October 7th — and for all the myths of IOF 'military might' — it is painfully obvious they are unable to defend themselves alone, and even unable to defend themselves with full US support:
Scott Ritter: (https://x.com/RealScottRitter/status/1779304880139559275)
Eye for an eye.
Iran struck Nevatim air base with at least seven of its new hypersonic missiles.
Nevatim is home to the F-35 fighters that attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
Not a single Iranian missile [that was intended* to make impact] was intercepted.
Let that sink in.
Israel is defenseless.
[*As opposed to the decoy drones and missiles meant to distract the Iron Dome while the ballistic missiles hit their targets]
For all the screams from both US/Occupation as well as Gulf/Normalizer voices, the Iranian attack not only was successful, but exceeded (https://x.com/Aly_jezzini/status/1779339238124707911) all expectations:
Long-standing IOF/US doctrine is to deny (https://x.com/asadabukhalil/status/1779320905380065723) all losses unless indubitably exposed.
The resistance records operations because it's the only way the IOF admit their losses, so it's no surprise that they claimed "no losses" through the gritted teeth of their military censorship.
It's been said that 'you can tell a lie from its enormity', and their claim of a ludicrous 99% success rate in interceptions tells you they are lying through their teeth, as does the endless footage we have of failed interceptions (https://x.com/revolutionaryem/status/1779336513274405047) and direct hits.
The fact that they had to resort to manual fighter jet shootdowns (https://x.com/ME_Observer_/status/1779324186042708230) is another huge point of failure: in the case of a full-blown open war, this is not a feasible nor sustainable way to conduct defense.
CONTINUED
Ibn Riad, [14/4/2024 17:18]
THE IRANIAN RETALIATION
PART 2
Indeed, in addition to trying to salvage the reputation of western military technology and doctrine while also reassuring disillusioned, terrified settlers; a major goal of downplaying (https://x.com/SinaToossi/status/1779305542743167210) the Iranian success may well be the intention to avoid further escalation.
The drawn-out build-up to this response served the purpose of extending the state of hysteria among settlers in the entity, but it also may have been intentional in allowing the US and the occupation to prepare all the air defenses they could muster.
Rania Khalek: (https://x.com/RaniaKhalek/status/1779423485401379022)
THE KEY TAKEAWAY FROM THE IRANIAN RETALIATION ON ISRAEL:
This is a deterrence win for Iran.
Had Israel been taken by surprise and not had the days long preparation to mitigate the impact of an Iranian attack this large, the damage would have been huge.
There is no way Israel could have intercepted hundreds of Iranian missiles without a week of its allies putting defenses in place and Iran intentionally taking its time.
A real war would NOT be telegraphed in advance so Israel can prepare with a symphony of air defenses from its allies.
Biden understands the risks posed by further escalation, especially to US forces, which is why he told Netanyahu he will not back an Israeli counterstrike.
The equation in the region has changed and Iran did it masterfully and responsibly without igniting the big war.
The goals for this would be threefold:
As Rania Khalek says above, it allowed for a huge strike without igniting a full war.
Thus, it remains a message, saying: "in case of real war, you will not have this amount of notice" — leaving the results of that to their imagination.
This message is then made all the more powerful when we see that, even with all their preparation, their full extent of air defenses were overwhelmed.
This would be the second goal of the delay: it allowed Iran to go up against the full extent of air defenses amd beat them.
It allowed Iran to test the full defensive capabilities of the US and occupation, to their greatest extent.
The data recorded last night will be invaluable (https://x.com/IbnIbnRiad/status/1779529373571330370) for any wider war, without Iran having revealed anything of its own.
Strategically, yesterday signalled a new paradigm amongst the entire Axis of Resistance: All members are now actively, directly involved against the entity.
The floodgates that cannot be closed.
The bind that the occupation has been in for months becomes still tighter:
Amal Saad: (https://x.com/amalsaad_lb/status/1779466137215844471)
The region is entering uncharted territory where the previous strategic paradigm and rules of engagement no longer apply. From now on, any Israeli action will be met with a direct and collective response by the Axis.
Regardless of what Israel does next, there is no going back to the status quo ante. This is no longer the Iran that just supports resistance movements with weapons and training. This is the Iran that directly engages in strikes against Israel.
This is a new proactive phase of the Resistance Axis' "offensive defense" strategy, which was officially launched on October 8 when Hizbullah and later other Resistance Axis allies directly intervened in the conflict against Israel.
The US and other Western and Arab allies have also taken the unprecedented step of directly defending Israel. Yesterday night proved that Israel's self-sufficiency in security and defense matters is limited. Israel will not be fighting any of its future wars independently.
Iran's masterful performance puts the enemy in yet another impossible bind.
Iran demonstrated some of their capabilities, showing the enemy that it cannot stop even a long-telegraphed, limited attack — never mind an extensive surprise attack.
Ben Amer, Yemeni Armed Forces: (https://x.com/BIG__Brother7/status/1779334137196814744)
Biden asked Netanyahu not to respond to Iran. In fact, the Israelis will not be able to swallow the blow and act as if nothing had happened because what happened will affect Israel’s status and dominance in the region and the world. As for Iran, this strike moved it to the stage of direct confrontation, and this has its importance in the future conflict.
CONTINUED
Ibn Riad, [14/4/2024 17:19]
THE IRANIAN RETALIATION
PART 3
Indeed, the non-response of the enemy was fully baked into the attack, the manner it was conducted, what it revealed, and the position (https://x.com/Aly_jezzini/status/1779339249822601688) it put the enemy in.
The fact that even the 1st wave of missiles hit, the fact that enemy air defenses were depleted...
The strike was just limited enough that it gave the US — who absolutely does not want a regional war — just enough room to force the entity to swallow it up and not respond.
The enemy is thus once more in the same place as the past year, except even more intensely: zugzwang
'Zugzwang' (from German 'compulsion to move') is a situation found in chess and other turn-based games wherein one player is put at a disadvantage because of their obligation to make a move; a player is said to be "in zugzwang" when any legal move will worsen their position.
Part of the intent of alarmist reports (https://x.com/IbnIbnRiad/status/1777471373545271596) from the US over past weeks was to raise the ceiling of expectations, to make it impossible for Iran to act without seeming either (a.) underwhelming or (b.) unreasonably aggressive; and therefore at fault for any escalation.
The Iranians turned this on its head and caught the world off-guard.
The attack was massive in scope — much bigger than what the US actually expected, despite their words — and though the actual sites hit were limited in quantity, they were qualitatively of incredible significance.
In particular, the heavy-hitting Khayber-Shekan ballistic missiles were aimed at the IOF airbase (https://x.com/AryJeay/status/1779301585425666139) from which the attack on the consulate was launched and out of which raids on Gaza are launched — a highly symbolic goal, a show of power, and meaningful retaliation.
By combining this with the literal biggest drone attack in history, setting up hours of looming dread for the hysterical settlers, setting off red alerts across the entity, the attack was anything but underwhelming while still avoiding an irresponsible escalation.
A master-stroke.
The occupation comes out more vulnerable, weak and helpless than they have ever been in history, and all the more so if they are forced — by US pressure, but above all by Iranian design — to refrain from responding.
Escalating brings the Zionist entity destruction; deescalating brings them implosion.
And as for the hordes of settlers, imperialists, sectarians and normalizers barking at the tops of their little canine lungs...
The louder they bark, the more you realize just how bad the events of last night have been for them.
•••
https://t.me/IbnRiadTG/247
The UNSC was supposed to take action after the Israeli strike on the Iranian Consulate, Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzia said during an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council.
“Iranian leaders realize that if they don’t have a serious response, these types of attacks will continue and increase. And that’s why they responded. So, it shows Iran’s capacity. And it shows the fact that Iran is willing to use this capacity,” Dr. Izadi emphasized.
NEW: At least 9 Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israeli strategic airbases
we will retaliate with a heavier more meaningful attack i.e flatten the base. They did the same to Israel here, its a warning saying hey we have the means to reach you, and flatten you, as well as highlighting the Air defence cost to Israel for such a attack. Israel now knows that If they over step the mark Iran could send ten times the amount of drones from different directions, and the same goes for ballistic and cruise missiles. And they wouldn't be giving them advance warnings this time. And we could also see a ground invasion directly after it from Lebanon and Syria from Hezbollah and Iranian paramilitary groups the end result wouldn't be good for Israel. 
/
Financial Times: As the Iranian missiles approached Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Zion Wing, the plane took off from the Nevatim air base to a safe zone.
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