2024 Iran–Israel conflict

35 hits on Nevatim and much less on otger target as this one is the main target. So any were intercepted.

Even then they emptied their stock of Arrow missiles.

Apparently it's SM 3.

A-235 doesn't help in case of a major attack... most likely it will take down the first missiles so that Putin can take cover and launch its own missiles. Or it can be used against lonely attacks by some dumb countries.

Return of the boomerang: the United States faced a terrible choice, by Pëtr Akopov for RiaNovosti. 10.05.2024.

The US is confident that it can control the degree of escalation of conflicts (both ongoing and potential) anywhere in the world: in Ukraine, the Middle East, around Taiwan. Somewhere to play for an escalation, somewhere to drag it out - everything is ultimately regulated by Washington, even when this requires building very complex combinations. To regulate does not necessarily mean to win: you can ultimately remain with your own or even suffer certain losses. To regulate means to have the ability to determine the course and speed of events, and this is the most important sign of a superpower trying to maintain the status of a world hegemon.

That is why Kiev is not receiving permission to strike Russia with long-range weapons – now the US is forced to take into account Vladimir Putin’s warning that this will lead to an escalation of the conflict between the West and Russia. America absolutely does not need this at the moment – ​​and given Ukraine’s dependence on the US, Kiev cannot afford to disobey the order from Washington.

However, the situation in the Middle East is quite different: the United States has been unable to influence Israel for a year now , which, after the start of the operation in Gaza, has placed its bets on escalating the conflict throughout the Middle East and drawing the United States into it. Of course, Israel is not Ukraine and not even an ordinary part of the American global project. In essence, it is a client of the supranational world elites, which also govern the United States. But this does not change the fact that America is the base and main force of these elites - and it is on its power and influence that the entire Anglo-Saxon globalization project is based. Therefore, no matter how highly Israel's interests are valued, the American ones are undoubtedly higher - because if the influence of the United States in the world falls critically, then Israel will have no future. Without American help, Ukraine, as the West admits, will last a couple of weeks, but Israel will not last long either.

Therefore, there can be no "tail wagging the dog" here: "America above all", not based on the ideas of American isolationists about the need to concentrate on solving growing internal problems and contradictions, but simply taking into account the importance of maintaining its position as a world hegemon. And if Israel digs in, forgetting about the fundamental interests of the globalists, it, in theory, should have been put in its place - especially at such a critical moment for the United States as the presidential elections coming up in a month. Increasing the fire that has been raging in the Middle East for a year is absolutely not in the interests of the American establishment, because it undermines the already shaky position of the Biden-Harris administration. The discontent of various parts of the traditional supporters of the Democrats - from young people to Muslims - increases Trump's chances of winning. And this is categorically unacceptable for the globalist elite. And none of Netanyahu's ambitions and plans play a role here - the stakes are incomparable.

But what do we see now? Israel is stubbornly pushing the escalation button — ignoring advice from Washington. Of course, Netanyahu has ignored them for the past year, actively playing on the contradictions in the American elite (where both parties must demonstrate their support for Israel), but recently it may seem that he has completely let go. After the assassination of the leader of the Palestinian Hamas in Tehran in July, Israel did not wait for a response from Iran — and moved on to a new stage of provocations. The terrorist attack with pagers, the murder of the leader of Hezbollah and the beginning of a ground invasion of Lebanon — all this is a game with a big fire, which will be the direct involvement of Iran in the conflict, after which Israel hopes to drag the United States into the war. Has Netanyahu achieved his goals? No — because even Iran's attack on Israel on October 1 does not give America a pretext to begin an operation against Tehran. Without this, all Israeli terrorist attacks, bombings and genocide do not give Netanyahu anything - Israel itself is not able to change the Middle Eastern reality and its position. America does not want to get involved - and then Israel begins to blackmail it.

Here is what former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett wrote after the Iranian strikes : "Israel has the greatest opportunity in 50 years to change the face of the Middle East. Iran's leadership, which used to play chess well, made a terrible mistake tonight. We must act now to destroy Iran's nuclear program, its central energy facilities, and fatally cripple this terrorist regime."

This is not just the opinion of the former prime minister - on the eve of the strikes, Netanyahu addressed the Iranian people, in which he combined threats with an denunciation of the "anti-people" Iranian regime and a warning that "Iran will become free much sooner than people think." That is, Israel is betting that strikes on Iran will lead to internal unrest and the fall of the ayatollahs, and it is clear that, according to its calculations, these strikes will be carried out not so much by the Israeli army as by the American army.

This crazy scenario of attacking Iran has been hatched in Washington and Israel for two decades now - and Netanyahu himself has repeatedly stated (including from the UN rostrum ) that Iran is only months away from acquiring nuclear weapons. And so, he says, a preemptive strike must be launched - to prevent the "terrorist regime" from acquiring an atomic bomb. Therefore, when Bennett now openly calls for a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, this must be taken extremely seriously.

Israel itself will not want to strike at underground facilities - and it is useless: its aircraft and missiles will not be able to destroy the bunkers. And America is not ready to participate in this - and even Biden has already spoken out on this matter. But the very fact that this topic is being seriously discussed and promoted by the Israeli leadership indicates its intention to escalate the conflict as much as possible. Okay, they tell the Americans, we will not strike at nuclear facilities - but let's strike at the Iranian oil industry, destroy the port through which exports are made? The Americans are against this too, because this will not only lead to higher prices (completely unnecessary for the administration), but could also force Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz , that is, cause the collapse of the energy market.

Israel's last option is to strike Iranian missile control centres. However, this too would require American participation, and this is the option Netanyahu now seems to be trying to push. But if the US were to take part in a strike on Iran, it would become a direct aggressor and give Iran a free hand to attack American bases and naval forces in the region. It is clear that the last thing Harris needs now is casualties among the American military - they would simply guarantee Trump's re-election.

That is, Israel has found itself in a dead end: the war in Lebanon, as in Gaza, does not lead to any victory - no matter how many civilians and fighters of Hamas and Hezbollah it kills, no matter how many of their leaders it destroys, it will achieve nothing. Nor can it drag Iran into the war - to destroy it with the hands of the Americans.

But the US has also found itself in a stalemate: it can no longer control the escalation, and Netanyahu does not listen to them, realizing that America will still support Israel. The fact that supporting outrages and provocations, as well as the inability to bring the parties to an agreement, will cost America very dearly (even if we take into account only influence and reputation in the Islamic world), does not bother Netanyahu. Not because he has written off the US, but because America itself has created a situation in which it can no longer control the development of events.

In Ukraine this still works, but in Israel it no longer works. For now the US has the strength not to give in to obvious provocations, but what will happen when an open struggle for power begins in Washington itself?

https://ria.ru/20241005/ssha-1976453029.html

It seems like Israel will target Iran tonight and they might go for the nuclear sites.

Considering they are deep in the ground they would need at least those bunker buster bombs to try to hit them which wouldn't even succeed.

Most interesting is the fact that those aren't gliding bombs or long range missiles. They would need to go in Iranian airspace and face Iranian air defence and very likely S-300 and Tor.

IMO Iran needs to move its AD vehicles quite often to not be easy targets for missiles with pre register coordinates.