2024 Iran–Israel conflict

A Hebrew channel leaked a video of a direct strike in Hod Hasharon, north of Tel Aviv of an Iranian missile hitting something.

https://t.me/ResistanceTrench2/12307

New footage of Iran missile attack on Israel

https://t.me/ResistanceTrench2/12309

I used to be quite good in my profession, before I moved to business endevaurs. Why don't listen someone who had actually put the effort and the brains to study something instead of talking crap. What's wrong with internet? wrote:

Many countries in the world are constantly working on systems to fight ballistic missiles. These are the USA, Russia, China, Feance, Israel, etc. Is something wrong with the physicists from these countries? Since they invest billions of USD in ABM systems? The fact that it is possible to intercept a ballistic missile has been known since 1961, when the Russians did it with the V-1000 missile. After that, a lot of ABM systems were created. For example, GBI, SM-3 block II, 53T6M, THAAD, ARROW 1,2,3, S-300V, S-300V4, S-500, PAC-3. Each more or less effective. Currently, the problem is not about physically intercepting the warhead of a ballistic missile, because this has been done many times. The problem is of course still complex, which is why few countries in the world are able to do it. The problem is that you can still saturate and overwhelm ABM systems. In addition, there are warheads that maneuver like HGVs or maneuvering hypersonic missiles, where it is very difficult to predict the flight trajectory and calculate the interception point. Modern SLBMs and ICBMs have dozens of decoys that are very difficult to distinguish from real RVs, in addition, some are designed so that they accompany MIRVs even in the atmosphere, some will burn out. In the case of ballistic missiles, you have very little time to react, so you need extensive systems for detecting and classifying targets. So you are right here, but I think not entirely. Because it is physically possible, but considering many other factors it is very difficult. Despite this, however, larger powers are constantly working on technologies to combat ballistic missiles. Of course, it is very difficult to stop a massive attack of 200 ballistic missiles, when you add decoys to this it becomes exceptionally difficult.

nomadski wrote:I was replying to KVS . This was about the relationship of internal politics and external conditions . I was saying that , there are groups and classes in Iran , that have and may still be using external ( as well as internal ) war as means of staying in power . A diversion , politically speaking . The killing of Haniyeh , may have been partly or entirely organised by this right wing group . As well as other incidents .

I speak both from personal experience , and observing the political situation . As an example , the entire voter turnout in the last elections was very low , as low as 25% . It is not just economic factors . It is to do with the cultural and political life of the people . Becoming a refugee , is not a choice for people . Setting aside political refugees , such as your's truly , then most are economic . The new generation of young Iranians , many of them are misguided . They are influenced by right wing propaganda , and may form a romantic view of life under the Shah regime . Unfortunately .

Maybe take a look at how many people turned out for Raisi's and earlier Soleimani's funeral.

Opposition in Iran doesn't seem to be too significant.

This thread is dedicated to the Iran vs Israel confrontation.
It would be good to move the discussions on Iranian internal politics elsewhere.

| Ayatollah Khamenei praises Operation "True Promise 2"

• What our armed forces did was the minimum punishment for the crimes of the bloodthirsty, wolf-like, and rabid dog that is America in the region.

• Any duty of the Islamic Republic, will be carried out. We will neither delay nor neglect.

• The action taken by our armed forces two or three nights ago was both legal and legitimate.

• In fulfilling this duty, we neither delay nor act hastily.

https://t.me/FotrosResistance/8775

— | Ayatollah Khamenei: Every blow to the Zionist regime is a service to all of humanity. The Zionist regime remains standing only through US support.

The Zionist regime is rootless, artificial, and unstable, and it will never defeat Hamas and Hezbollah.

• It is our duty, and the duty of all Muslims, to repay our debt to the wounded and bloodied Lebanon. Hezbollah and Sayyed Hassan, by defending Gaza, striving for Al-Aqsa Mosque, and striking the usurping and oppressive regime, have taken crucial steps in serving the entire region and the whole Islamic world.

• America and its allies' reliance on maintaining the security of the usurping regime is merely a cover for their deadly policy of turning this regime into a tool for controlling all the resources of this region and using them in major global conflicts.

• The Zionist regime is barely standing, only due to the sucking up of US support; and even that will not last long, by the will of God.

https://t.me/FotrosResistance/8781

| The israeli Nevatim air base was struck by 32 missiles, pinned out on this map.

Sattelite imagery that were released yesterday only showed 5 of those 32 impacts.

(Thanks to Dr. Jeffrey Lewis’ team)


https://t.me/FotrosResistance/8783

| New sattelite images of Nevatim & Ovda airbase was released with visible damage


https://t.me/FotrosResistance/8786

— | People wonder why some Iranian missile hits are very accurate some less so: Read all of this to understand

Iran used new generation Kheybar-Shekan-2 as well the one decade old Emad

The Emad is very useful with its heavy 900kg warhead, but its CEP of 30-50m means that it can't hit very small targets reliably

Its mission are larger objects

Iran displayed its capability to knock-out Israeli air bases in time of conflict.
Hence the Emads in the mix would have to be used on small or very hardened targets for which they lack the necessary precision and CEP of ~10m

Therefore:
If Iran hit a target like the hangar of Israel's AEW fleet, then it was likely a Kheybar-Shekan-2
If it hit precisely the middle of a runway or taxiway, then it was the KS-2
If it hits the street in front of the Mossad HQ, then its most probably a warning shot by the KS-2

If the missile hits just 10-30m away from the center of the target, its likely the Emad

Important:
People must bear in mind, that no soft defeat measure helped to prevent the strike:
- No GPS/GLONASS spoofing and jamming helped, whether by or
- No sabotage asset
- No secret space-based counter system

In the last strike in April, Iran avoided the use of Kheybar-Shekan-2 and resorted to older missiles

In a real war scenario, Iran would use its high-precision missiles against the hardened and small targets.
While the less accurate ones would be used against various large targets

Iran did show its "mercy" by hitting runways and taxi-ways. If maximum pain at the airbases was the goal it would not have done so
It was a capability display for a high-intensity war scenario in which the loss of the runways for just 1-2 days could decide the war.
Israel is highly depending on its air force. The degradation of its power for just 1-2 days, can allow for heavy exploits by its adversaries

In summary: Even the one decade old Emad with its 30-50 CEP is for 98% of the worlds nations an almost mystical capability, they lack

(Repost from Patarames (https://x.com/pataramesh/status/1842075445606408247?s=46&t=P1DQrEyGxQ0X-IFfq7mhEw) on X)



https://t.me/FotrosResistance/8788

— Imbeciles: “Iranian people are against Khamenei and want peace with israel”

Reality: The people of Iran attending the speech & prayers of Imam Khamenei while chanting death to israel amid israel’s threats.


https://t.me/FotrosResistance/8796

— / NEW: U.S. Analysts from the Center of Naval Analyses (CNA) have identified 32 direct hits on Israel's Nevatim airbase in the Negev, with several ballistic missiles impacting directly at the protective hangars of Israel's F-35 'Adir' jets.

Detailed closeup imagery is not yet available to fully assess the damage. The satellite imagery from Tel Nof airbase, which was also struck by Iran, has not been released yet, and the damage is likely severe.

On another note, while the damage at Nevatim might not look severe, Iran used 'airburst' warheads, which don't leave large craters but sling shrapnel in a large radius, effective against soft targets like jets.

https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/10635

— / NEW: Satellite imagery from Ovda airbase in southern Israel also shows at least 3 direct hits of Iranian ballistic missiles against the hardened F-16 hangars in the base


https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/10707

— Admiral Ali Fadavi, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC: 'If the Zionist regime makes a mistake, we will target all of its energy infrastructure, power plants, refineries and gas fields'

He adds: 'The Zionist regime has only 3 power plants and a few refineries, their infrastructure can be knocked out easily. Iran on the other hand is a vast country with many facilities spread across the nation.'

@Middle_East_Spectator

— / NEW: Satellite confirms at least 3 ballistic missile impacts at Israel's F-35 'Adir' shelters in Nevatim airbase, with one direct hit on a shelter

Hebrew sources are slowly starting to report that 1 F-35 has been taken 'temporarily out of service' and another F-35 was 'slightly damaged'.

https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/10717

Some interesting news was revealed.
USN launched 12 pcs of SM3 missiles in an interception attempt.
TWELVE.
And this is - now hold my beer - a yearly US production.

Yes, Israeli AD was supported by the US ABM system, the question is whether the SM 3s intercepted anything? The number of production 12 pieces per year is hard to believe

Additional satellite images of Israel's Nevatim airbase after Iranian ballistic missiles landed there.

As you can see, one of the buildings on the airbase territory was damaged, and one of the shelters for F-35I fighters was also hit - a couple more missiles hit near other shelters without causing damage.

It is unknown whether the fighters were in their shelters at that moment, or whether they had been raised into the air and redeployed in advance.


https://t.me/intelslava/67800

Middle East Spectator, [4/10/2024 11:50]
Another thing that you guys have to keep in mind is that not all of these were hyper accurate ballistic missiles. There were a number of different systems utilized to overwhelm air defense, so some of the craters that you see randomly on the ground or far away are not necessarily intended.

It almost looks like they oversaturated, and some of the less accurate missiles hit areas that they weren’t necessarily meant to hit. They were supposed to take an interceptor for the accurate missiles.

Middle East Spectator, [4/10/2024 11:50]
Something like this

Middle East Spectator, [4/10/2024 11:50]
If they wanted to hit every single one of those F-35 shelters, they would’ve launched the proper number of missiles with a relatively low CEP.

Middle East Spectator, [4/10/2024 11:54]
— Scott is right. Many of the missiles were simply intended to overwhelm Israeli air defenses, if any of them actually hit it would be an 'added bonus'. They did have target coordinates input, of course, for the case that they did manage to bypass defenses.

The blue circles are likely the targets Iran REALLY cared about and actually wanted to hit. That's why we used Kheybar Shekan and Kheybar Shekan-2, one of our most accurate missiles in the arsenal. If we actually wanted to make sure of destroying the F-35 hangars, we would've used a much larger quantity of these.

Keep in mind that Iran still hasn't used the 'Khorramshahr-4' LRBM, which has a warhead of 1,500kg and could be devastating if they make any direct hits.

@Middle_East_Spectator

A new video showing start of Iran strike on Israel. Sirens and air defense system get disabled as soon as first missile hit a target with large explosion.

https://t.me/ResistanceTrench2/12407