2024 Iran–Israel conflict

“The Iranians targeted exactly what they wanted to target (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/34054)… multiple air bases, including the one that, apparently, the attack that killed Hezbollah's Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah [was launched from],” he noted. “It's a new day for Israel. It's a new day for Iran, for the US, for the resistance axis, for the entire world.”

“They gave the US time, they gave a chance for a ceasefire in Gaza... But we have seen now for months on end that Israel sabotages these negotiations (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/23173) day in and day out.”

Israel’s regional deterrence has historically rested its Iron Dome and the support it enjoys from the US. But Iran’s use of hypersonic missiles has proven that Tehran has the ability to bypass the defense system (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/34059)and strike any target within Israeli territory. Meanwhile, the US has found itself boxed in by the upcoming presidential election as President Biden works to prevent the outbreak of a regional war that could sink Democrats’ chances in November.

“They are getting cut down [in Lebanon],” Carrillo claimed. “They are getting ambushed (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/34179). They are getting sent back with their tails between their legs because they do not have the winning hand. So Iran last night warned Israel, ‘Do not miscalculate.’”

After Tuesday’s attack, has Iran eclipsed Israel’s deterrence capacity? (Part 2 Part 1 (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/34195))

Beirut-based journalist Esteban Carrillo claimed the balance of power in the Middle East has changed after Iran’s attack against Israel Tuesday (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/34060), with Iranian hypersonic capabilities and other events on the ground limiting Israel’s options.

“‘Do not think that you can, at this point, hit us again,’” Carrillo said on Sputnik’s Fault Lines program, summarizing the message sent by Tehran’s attack. “‘Because if you do, if you come and you hit Iran,’ they are saying, ‘you are going to face our wrath. You are going to quickly collapse. This is going to be the end of you. (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/34104)”

Meanwhile, questions have been raised about the United States’ capacity to continue arming its Israeli ally as it faces commitments across the globe.

“How are we now going to supply Israel in another war?” asked host Jamarl Thomas, suggesting the US is being stretched thin by providing arms in various conflicts. “Against what, three states? Four states? Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran? And the Houthis. Five states. How are we going to supply weapons for this larger war while the war in Ukraine also continues (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/33648) at a steady pace?”

“Don't forget about Taiwan too,” Carrillo noted, “this planned escalation against China (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/31494) which is also in the wings, which is also something that the US hasn't given up on… Diplomacy is a foreign word for [the US government]... a dirty word even… US officials seem really just hellbent on lining their pockets with money from the weapons companies because at the end of the day, war is just a money-laundering machine.”

https://t.me/geopolitics_live/34195

Exoatmospheric intercepts possibly Arrow 3? I wonder how many missiles were intercepted by Israeli AD and AEGIS in total.

Video does NOT show intercept . It shows an explosion only . There is no Rocket plume before intercept . Unless this Rocket had invisible plume , unlike others . Most likely the SAM warhead designed to spend it's payload at terminal point . As was pointed out before , why sirens sounded after Rocket impact ? And such low intercepts ? Me thinks Rockets are low RCS .....Plus decoys........And fast !

Video does NOT show intercept . It shows an explosion only . There is no Rocket plume before intercept . Unless this Rocket had invisible plume , unlike other wrote:

These are intercepts. The ABM missile's engines are not running all the time. They occur high above the atmosphere.

@ Video above showing alleged exoatmospheric interceptions:

Colour me unimpressed.   Israel is like its pet pit bull America, only ready to attack defenceless countries.  

But this does not make Iran safe.   It has apparent internal subversion rot and can drop the ball with any military engagement with Israel and its dog.   The death of the previous
president demonstrates this well.   Dying while riding a decrepit US helicopter instead of functional and better Soviet/Russian models.   The infiltration is deep.

I have sensed that military manoeuvres do happen , right when there is internal conflict . Such as " crossing," the Araxes River into R . Azer , just when a shrine is attacked . So external conflict ( phoney or theatrically ) can possibly be started as a social glue ! Such was the case during Iran/ Iraq war . Iran rejecting peace proposals twice . The right wing exterminating the left , the sound of Artillery drowning the cries of the people . So it helps those in power , play with their balls , not drop them .

If the "left wing" needs to pander to the NATzO west in its alleged fight with the right, then it is nothing but compardor scum. This appears to be a common theme with modern
left. It has been hijacked by globalists who are ultimately the worst form of right wing. They want to restore the aristocratic order with the prole masses being serfs on their
plantations. Any "leftist" that lubricates this process needs to be exterminated.

Iranian media publish new footage of Iran's preparation of missiles for an attack on Israel (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/34067).

https://t.me/geopolitics_live/34227

kvs wrote:If the "left wing" needs to pander to the NATzO west in its alleged fight with the right, then it is nothing but compardor scum.   This appears to be a common theme with modern
left.   It has been hijacked by globalists who are ultimately the worst form of right wing.    They want to restore the aristocratic order with the prole masses being serfs on their
plantations.   Any "leftist" that lubricates this process needs to be exterminated.

What you were referring to , and is generally confused with the " left , " is actually the liberal left or phoney left . A section of the right wing , what you called the globalist . I am not talking about that . I was talking about the Iranian working class political party , that was exterminated and the large masses of Iranian people who are the majority and are powerless and oppressed by the right wing . The right wing in power now , is a mix of liberal and national elements , but in their oppressive and dictatorial rule , they unite against the majority . I think that , if confronted with loosing power to the left ( Iranian working class ) , that they would unite with even the monarchists and invite uncle Sam back .

| NEW: A new footage shows more successive impacts at the israeli Nevatim airbase.

Some explosions (00:21) are stronger than the others which means that the 700-800 kg heavy warheads of the Iranian liquid propellant missiles also hit this base.

Keep in mind, this is israel’s most secured airbase and they are very proud of this base.


https://t.me/FotrosResistance/8722

Middle East Spectator, [3/10/2024 10:28]
— / BREAKING: A senior Iranian Official has told Al-Jazeera:

'We have sent a message to the United States through Qatar that any Israeli attack would be met with an unconventional and disproportionate response that would include nationwide infrastructure.

The phase of unilateral restraint is over. There is a regional need to restrain Israel and its madness.'

@Middle_East_Spectator

Middle East Spectator, [3/10/2024 10:40]
— / Iranian Official to Al-Jazeera: 'We have come to the conclusion that showing restraint simply does not benefit us in terms of national security nor regional stability – Israel will do whatever it wants regardless, so now we will make them pay'

@Middle_East_Spectator

Israel's air defense: A high-tech shield that leaks like a sieve

On October 1, Iran fired (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/34067) around 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel’s killings of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah. Iran claims 90% hit their targets (https://t.me/geopolitics_live/34054), while Tel Aviv insists their “state-of-the-art” air defense stopped most of them – although evidence on the ground suggests otherwise. How did Israel’s missile defense fare when really put to the test?

Iron Dome: Designed for short-range threats like rockets and mortars, with a range of 4-70km. Each battery has a radar and launchers with 20 interceptors. But its weakness against mass rocket attacks has been exposed, and at $50,000 per missile it’s not exactly budget-friendly.

David's Sling: Built for longer-range threats up to 300km, it uses kinetic "hit-to-kill" tech to shoot down ballistic missiles. But it lacks a fragmenting explosive warhead to take out missiles in a near-miss, and like its counterparts it buckles under mass missile attacks.

The Arrow 2 and 3 systems are built to stop medium and long-range missiles up to 2,400km away and can target 14 missiles at once. But when the skies get busy, accuracy falters and their blind spots for fast-moving threats become a real problem.

Iron Beam: The new kid on the block – except it’s still not quite ready to play. Touted as a ‘Star Wars’ weapon using lasers to shoot down missiles, the Iron Beam is still in development. For now, it’s nothing more than a promise on paper and Israel remains vulnerable while waiting for this technology to come online.

CNN reported that some Iron Dome batteries would be overwhelmed if Israel launched a full-scale war with Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

Russian military historian Yury Knutov told Sputnik that the Iron Dome is effective only when dealing with a few targets coming from one direction. During last year’s surprise Hamas attack on Israel, a number of rockets launched by the Palestinian militant group penetrated the air defenses and struck Israeli cities.

— / NEW: Satellite imagery from the day before the attack on Nevatim airbase shows an Israeli AWACs plane (probably Gulfstream G550) inside the exact hangar that was struck by Iran

Pinpoint accuracy.

https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/10607

— WATCH: Newly released footage shows the preparation of Iran's ballistic missiles for Operation True Promise-2 by the IRGC Aerospace Force engineers

https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/10623

| Some of Iran’s ballistic missile impacts—mapped out based on visual evidence.

This map was created by a friend of mine from ISW (https://t.me/iswnewsmaps) .

https://t.me/FotrosResistance/8754