2024 Iran–Israel conflict

US Awash in Iranian Oil, by Sergey Savchuk for RiaNovosti. 10.06.2024.

Israel's ground invasion of southern Lebanon and the massive missile attack by Iran that preceded it have sharply shifted the focus of world politics to the Middle East. This is understandable: the outcome of the Ukrainian conflict, no matter what Kiev fantasizes about, is not capable of having a significant impact on the geostrategic situation in a global sense. But the rapidly heating up and increasingly bloody conflict in the south poses a whole range of difficulties for global players.

Leading Western publications are writing in unison about the feverish work of the American diplomatic corps in the region. The chicks of Anthony Blinken's nest are simultaneously negotiating with Tel Aviv regarding its plans to strike Iranian oil fields, while simultaneously probing the position of neighboring states. Reuters, citing its own sources, writes that unnamed countries in the region (and according to geographic logic, these are Syria , Jordan , and Iraq ) responded with a categorical refusal to the request to open their airspace for the flight of Israeli missiles. Naturally, such a statement could be disinformation to deceive the Iranian military command. But here it would be useful to recall that these same countries did not particularly interfere with the flight of Iranian missiles, except that Jordan half-heartedly pretended to intercept, shooting down an insignificant number of them.

The Financial Times completes the picture. It writes that the European Union also sent its emissaries to Israel with a persistent request not to carry out retaliatory strikes on Iranian oil storage facilities. The obvious displeasure of the European diplomats is noted, since Tel Aviv did not give them any guarantees. According to one of the envoys, Brussels is extremely disappointed with such a response and how insignificant the EU's influence on Middle Eastern processes is.

Diplomats get paid for being able to bury the true meaning under a thick layer of tricky verbal chaff. After all, Washington and Brussels don't give a damn about the number of victims in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, they are interested in only one thing - Persian oil as a geostrategic factor of long-term influence.

By the way, the remotely clashing Israel and Iran show in the best possible way that Washington's influence on powerful regional centers is quite indirect. And even in the case of critical dependence, as in the case of the Jewish state, local "hawks" conduct a fairly independent and aggressive policy without constantly glancing over the ocean.

It is not known how successful the raids of American conciliatory diplomacy were. However, a list of potential targets on Iranian territory where a retaliatory strike could be directed is known. These include the oil refinery near Tehran , the Abadan oil refinery, the Bandar Abbas oil refinery and oil loading terminal, the Persian Gulf Star oil refinery next to it on the coast with a capacity of almost half a million barrels per day, the huge Kharg Island marine terminal (with storage and transshipment capacity of up to 28 million "barrels"), and the Bushehr nuclear power plant under construction . The fact that the latter facility is an unfinished peaceful station, a priori incapable of being involved in the process of Tehran's nuclear armament, does not particularly worry anyone.

And here we gradually approach the main thing, namely: why are American geopolitical composers so carefully touching the Middle Eastern strings, and Joe Biden even blurted out that Israel’s actions are taking him out of his comfort zone.

If Israel "takes out" key Persian refineries and oil storage facilities, this will instantly raise world oil prices. OPEC+ has already stated that it has reserves to replace Iranian exports, but if Tehran in response begins to destroy oil production in neighboring countries in the region, this will lead to a regional and possibly global crisis. At the moment, OPEC+ has about six million barrels of reserves per day, and Saudi Arabia (plus three million) and the UAE (plus 1.4 million "barrels" per day) have already announced their readiness to sharply increase production.

At first glance, it is enough, because Iran exports about 1.7 million barrels of crude oil per day plus 240 thousand "barrels" of fuel oil. The catch is that the key buyer of Iranian oil and products is China , almost half of all exports go there, and Beijing will clearly not be happy about such a kick in the gut to its energy balance. And relations between the US and China are far from ideal anyway.

The US, as one of the largest oil exporters, is generally satisfied with the shutdown of the Iranian oil flow. According to Goldman Sachs , even an initial Israeli strike will cause oil prices to rise by an average of $20 per barrel, and if the conflict spreads to the entire Strait of Hormuz, the limit will not be even $150 per "barrel". But the Americans are not the only sellers on the market. Record quotes will bring fabulous profits to the same Saudis, who are already moving further and further away from the American orbit of influence. Riyadh is already pursuing an extremely independent policy, bargaining on equal terms with yesterday's overlord.

And of course, the Russian factor is very important here.

For three years, the entire collective West has been bending over backwards to limit Moscow's income from oil exports. It is endlessly repeated that this will dry up the state budget and force Russia to curtail military operations in Ukraine . An Israeli strike on Iran's oil fields, be it Ghajaran, Marun, Avaz Banjistan, Agha Jari, Raj-e-Safid, Pars or Bibi Hakim, will be like opening the dam doors, through which an avalanche of money will pour into the Russian budget. Washington understands this, Kiev and Brussels understand it.

That is why the US is forced to balance between the greed of its own oilmen, the interests of its strategic ally Israel, the need to support Ukraine and contain Moscow, not to give the Arab countries too much freedom, and not to prematurely enter into a clinch with China. Geopolitics is a chemist's scale, only it has not two, but a hundred cups at once.

https://ria.ru/20241006/neft-1976544126.html

How Israel is turning its own disaster into a victory for Russia too, by Gevorg Mirzayan for VZGLYAD. 10.07.2024.

Exactly one year ago, an event occurred that dramatically accelerated the course of events in the Middle East and affected the entire world – a bloody attack by Arab groups on Israel. At that time, the consequences of this terrorist attack looked like a catastrophe for the Jewish state. How and why did the situation actually turn upside down in a year, and what significance does what is happening have for our country?

October 7 marks exactly one year since the bloodiest terrorist attack in Israel's modern history. On that day, Hamas and its allies managed to disable or deceive Israeli surveillance equipment, after which they broke through the fence surrounding the Gaza Strip into Israeli territory. As a result, they not only killed almost 1,200 Israelis (for comparison: in the Yom Kippur War, Israel's bloodiest war against the armies of Egypt and Syria, between 2,500 and 3,000 citizens died) and kidnapped several hundred, but also seized a significant part of southern Israel for several days.

The significance and consequences of this terrorist attack go far beyond the Israeli-Hamas standoff. Many experts call it one of the turning points in the history of the Middle East. A spark that could ignite the flames of a major regional war.

After the invasion, the Israeli army began a large-scale operation against Hamas and the Gaza Strip. Now a new stage has begun – an invasion of Lebanon with the aim of destroying or weakening as much as possible the Hezbollah group (whose middle and high command staff was knocked out by Israeli intelligence with the help of terrorist attacks and bombings). In the foreseeable future, this invasion is capable of developing into a full-fledged war between Iran (which will come to the aid of Hezbollah) on one side and Israel and the United States (which will come to the aid of Israel) on the other.

The process of clearing the ripples from the October 7 terrorist attacks is not yet complete. But now we can already sum up the results and consequences for key regional and external players: Israel, Iran and its allies, the United States – and, of course, Russia.

Israel lost but won

A year ago, Israel was considered the biggest loser, not only because of the unprecedented number of casualties, but also because of the demonstration of weakness.

The Arab world has long had a fear of Israel, formed by the Jewish state's military victories in the mid-20th century. It was believed that the territory under Israeli control was impossible to occupy. The last attempt to do so was 50 years ago (the Yom Kippur War) and ended in a crushing defeat for the leading armies of the Arab states. However, on October 7, 2023, it became clear that no armies were needed to capture it - just a few thousand Palestinian fighters. The invasion was expected to be the end of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political career.

However, over the past year, the Israelis and Netanyahu personally have managed to convert their defeat into what they consider a victory. Tel Aviv has launched an unprecedentedly audacious operation to defend itself against Iran’s “thousand cuts” strategy. The essence of this strategy is to surround Israel with a network of pro-Iranian structures and, through terrorist attacks and instability, to exhaust the Jewish state.

Ultimately, the October 7 attack allowed Israel to consolidate its society and launch operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Yes, their unprecedented brutality quickly deprived Israelis of the international sympathy that had emerged after the October 7 attacks. Yes, a large portion of Israelis still have a negative view of Prime Minister Netanyahu. However, opinion polls show that he is still the most popular candidate for the country's prime minister. Moreover, his successful operations against Hamas and Hezbollah give him the credibility to carry out other operations.

Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah won but lost
The so-called Iranian-led “Axis of Resistance” – which includes Hamas and Hezbollah – is currently listed as a loser, despite the initial success of the October 7 terrorist attack and other attacks on Israel.

These victories have come at a very high price. Thousands of Hamas fighters have been killed, including the head of the organization's politburo, Ismail Haniyeh. Gaza's infrastructure has been destroyed, with more than half of the residential buildings either damaged or destroyed. With no money to rebuild, much of the strip will remain uninhabitable, weakening the group's position not only in the conflict with Israel, but also in the confrontation with its rivals. In particular, the Fatah group that governs the West Bank.

Hezbollah is in an even worse situation. Its entire top leadership has been wiped out in the last year. Much of the middle management has been wiped out, thanks to an Israeli intelligence operation that planted explosives in the pagers of Hezbollah activists. The organization is so weakened that it is unlikely to be able to prevent an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon.


The problems of Hamas and Hezbollah are also becoming problems for their main sponsor, Iran. But they are not the main problems. The main problem is the fork that Tel Aviv has set for Tehran.


By conducting large-scale, daring and demonstratively cruel operations against Iranian proxies, the Israelis demonstrate to all other proxies, as well as to the Middle Eastern countries, the weakness of Iran - because it is unable to protect its allies. They are thus destroying the axis of resistance. If Iran chooses to defend itself, that is, strikes Israel - this could lead to a sharp escalation of the conflict. Simply put, to a war between Iran and the United States, which is unnecessary and extremely dangerous for Tehran.

As a result, choosing between war and the shame that would follow war, the Iranians demonstratively chose readiness for war and launched a massive missile attack on Israel on October 1. Giving Tel Aviv the opportunity to begin the escalation for which it is clearly preparing.

The Dog with the Strange Tail and the Wise Monkey

The extent of this escalation will largely depend on the position of the United States, Israel's key ally, without whose help Tel Aviv will not be able to sustain this war. It would seem that the Americans should have abandoned it. The Democrats do not need this war, because it will lead to an increase in Donald Trump's rating. The United States as a state does not need it either, because America is already bogged down in the conflict in Ukraine.

However, the problem is that the Israeli tail is now actively wagging the American dog. Benjamin Netanyahu has driven America into a situation where the White House has no room to maneuver. In the event of a sharp escalation, he cannot help but support Israel – domestic political life in the United States is structured in such a way that the electorate and sponsors will turn away from a candidate who turns away from Israel. And a military defeat of the Jewish state in the war against Iran (inevitable if the United States does not help with money, weapons and soldiers) will deprive the United States of its only stronghold and ally in the region.

As for Russia, the actions of Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, the US and Iran have made Moscow one of the main beneficiaries of the entire Israeli multi-move. The wise monkey from the Chinese proverb, past which the enemy's corpse floats.


First of all, the US is distracted by the Middle East. Even the current level of conflict between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah requires Washington to constantly supply money and weapons to the Jewish state. And every dollar and bullet that goes to Israel does not go to Ukraine.

By siding with Israel in the inhumane bombing of Hamas, the US has damaged its relations with the Muslim world to the maximum extent. There can now be no talk of any Arab states participating in the sanctions campaign against Russia.

Relations with the Arab world have been damaged not only by the United States, but also by Western-controlled international organizations. The refusal of the International Olympic Committee and other structures to impose sanctions against Israel has become the best proof of double standards. It turned out that the Muslims that Israel kills in Gaza are less important to the West than the Ukrainians who die in the fighting.

Of course, Moscow condemns Israel and the US for their provocative activity. It opposes war in the Middle East. But this condemnation does not mean that Russia should not take advantage of the mistakes of its enemies. Even if for Israel these mistakes look like success and victory.

https://vz.ru/world/2024/10/7/1291034.html

Do you think Iran conducted a nuclear test?

How Iran Penetrated Israel's Air Defense Shield, by Alexander Gulin, Olga Voloshina for VZGLYAD. 10.07.2024.

"Israeli air defense is not nearly as reliable as they publicly claim." These are the words used by experts to sum up one of the main military events of the past week – Iran's missile strike on Israeli military targets. What real results did Iran achieve in this attack and with what weapons?

"Operation True Promise 2 has proven that we can raze any place we want to the ground," a source in the Iranian Armed Forces reportedly said, summing up last week's rocket attack on Israel. In other words, Iran is making it clear that it is pleased with the outcome.

Let us recall that on October 1, Iran launched a massive missile attack on Israeli territory. The exact number of missiles launched is unknown. Official Israeli authorities speak of 180 launches, the Iranian side reports 400 missiles, and the Jerusalem Post newspaper writes about almost five hundred missiles launched. Iran's targets were two Israeli military air bases, Nevatim and Tel Nof, as well as the headquarters of Israel's national intelligence service, Mossad.

Tehran claims that the attack, dubbed True Promise 2, hit 80% of its targets. The Israel Defense Forces, though not immediately, acknowledged hitting several air bases in Nevatim and Tel Nof. So what missiles did Iran use to penetrate Israel’s deep air defenses?

Medium-range ballistic missiles

Military experts call Iran's missile arsenal the most diverse and extensive in the entire Middle East. According to Reuters, Tehran has thousands of cruise and ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel in 12-15 minutes. As US Marine Corps General Kenneth McKenzie noted back in 2022, "over the last five to seven years, they [the Iranian authorities – Vzglyad note] have invested heavily in their ballistic missile program. Their missiles have a longer range – significantly longer range – and significantly higher accuracy."

According to CNN, the medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) used by Iran during the attack included the liquid-fueled Ghadr-1 (Ghadr), which entered service in 2007. The Ghadr system is capable of entering combat mode and launching a missile within 30-40 minutes of receiving the command. The 15.5 m long (according to other sources - 16.6 m) and 1.25 m in diameter munition weighs 17.5 tons, with the warhead accounting for 750 kg. The Ghadr missile has a range of up to 1,600 km (according to some sources - up to 2,000 km).

A specially developed aerodynamic design provides the Ghadr with high speed, making the missile virtually elusive to Israel's missile defence systems.

In addition, the Iranian Armed Forces "tested" Israeli targets with Khaybar Shekan missiles, which were first shown in February 2022. "Fortress Destroyer" (this is how "Khyber Shekan" is translated into Russian) is a solid-fuel MRBM with high accuracy (circular error probable - less than 20 m). An important advantage of the missile is its maneuverability in the final leg of the flight. "Khyber Shekan" is able to significantly reduce speed during descent, which reduces the thermal load (there are no signs of melting the warhead and burning blocks). All this makes the munition less vulnerable to air defense systems.

Khaybar Shekan has a more compact body than its classmates, and therefore a lower weight (6.3 tons). The engine power allows the "Destroyer" to carry a half-ton warhead and cover a distance of 1,450 km. The "filling" of the missile's warhead is a high-explosive fragmentation munition. Western media have repeatedly expressed concerns about the possibility of equipping the "Khyber Shekan" with a compact nuclear charge.

Israel's missile defence system couldn't withstand "hypersonic"

During the October attack on Israel, Iran used its new Fattah missiles for the first time. Tehran claims that they successfully hit their targets, destroying Israel's Hetz-2 and Hetz-3 anti-aircraft missile systems.

Fattah, which means "Conqueror" in Persian, was created by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and unveiled to the public in 2023. Its first launch took place on June 6 of that year. Iran's Air Force and Aerospace Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh claimed that the missile has hypersonic speed and high maneuverability in and outside the atmosphere.

Fattah is said to be capable of reaching speeds of up to Mach 13 (15,900 km/h) and a range of 1,400 km. The missile is highly maneuverable and has precise guidance due to its engine with a movable nozzle. The thrust vector control and aerodynamic rudders allow the missile to rotate during flight and more accurately aim at the target immediately before impact.


Iranian media claim that Fattah is capable of overcoming all missile defense systems, and that there is no system in the world that can reliably intercept the Iranian development. It is difficult to assess how well-founded this statement is.

But it is already clear that Israel's air defence and missile defence systems - in particular, the Hetz and Iron Dome anti-aircraft missile systems - were not prepared for such an attack. As military expert Yuri Lyamin noted, Israel's missile defense was overloaded under the attack of dozens of Iranian missiles and did not have time to respond to two massive missile salvos from Iran (the missiles needed only about 12 minutes to reach their intended targets).

The Aftermath of Operation True Promise 2

Iran and Israel have provided completely opposite information about the results of Operation True Promise 2. Iranian state media wrote that 20 F-35 Adir fighters were damaged, two gas platforms in the Mediterranean Sea were damaged, Israeli Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 missile defense systems were destroyed, several warheads reached the Gaza Strip and many tanks were hit. It was also reported that several missiles hit the Tel Nof airbase, located 27 km from Tel Aviv.

In contrast, the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) claims that the several strikes recorded on the Nevatim and Tel Nof airbases did not cause significant damage. Thus, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant stated: "Not a single squadron was hit, not a single aircraft was damaged, there is no faulty runway and there are no disruptions in our operations." According to the Israeli side, most of the rockets were successfully intercepted, only two civilians were injured and one Palestinian worker was killed - he was crushed by debris from the downed rocket.

So where is the truth? Satellite images that have appeared in the media confirm that at least two runways at the Nevatim airbase have been damaged, a building has been destroyed, the roof of an aircraft hangar has been breached, and craters from explosions are visible.

The released video footage shows Israeli equipment filling in craters at the airbase. Journalists also captured on video a crater nearly nine meters deep and 15 meters wide about half a kilometer from the Mossad headquarters.

Doctor of Military Sciences Konstantin Sivkov believes that the Iranian attack on the southern targets, the most distant from Iran, which required overcoming the entire Israeli air defense system, was purely demonstrative in nature. The expert stated : "This strike was demonstrative, it was intended to show that the Israeli air defense and missile defense system is not capable of neutralizing Iranian missiles."

Apparently, Iran did not fully achieve the strike's objectives, but Israel's air defense did not cope with the Iranian missiles with the required degree of effectiveness. This means that the very fact of a massive strike on Israeli territory caused serious reputational damage to Israel's air defense systems. Retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis also says this. He notes that "Israeli air defense is far from being as reliable as they publicly claim." The expert calls on the Israeli government to reduce escalation and warns: "If Israel enters into a missile war with Iran, it will suffer serious damage. This war must not happen."

https://vz.ru/world/2024/10/7/1291118.html