Russian special military operation in Ukraine #56

Hole wrote:
Why keep they sending such crap?

Old expired useless crap is better for money Laundering

Especially when they charge full price you would pay for such things now for that rubbish, while when they bought it decades ago it was much cheaper...

Check this out :




Same situation - Buk chassis and missiles being clearly not 9M38 missiles. Containers look like Sea Sparrow indeed.

By the way, the main goal of this Kharkov offensive is to make the Ukrainians divert troops from other directions. Once they divert a part of their forces from Chasov Yar, Chasov Yar is done.

[quote="Walther von Oldenburg"]By the way, the main goal of this Kharkov offensive is to make the Ukrainians divert troops from other directions. Once they divert a part of their forces from Chasov Yar, Chasov Yar is done.[/quote

It's only 50k Ukraine has enough men for this.

People are gravely misunestimating the amount of troops here.

YouTubers have hyped this move up for weeks now the reality is it's a small amount of troops with the goal to make a small buffer zone between Kharkov and belegrod, Ukraine has had units in position for months to defend, they do not need to pull anything from anywhere.

Raze the entire city of Kharkov only as a last resort, making the city unlivable by cutting off supplies should be enough to purge all NATO and Ukrainian occupiers in the city.

Tying up 150,000 cannon fodder in Kiev

There are no 150.000 fighters left.

before karma catches up with them

Russian karma is flying with hypersonic speed. 

 hardly enough to penetrate deep into Ukrainian lines

If the Banderites had 300.000 troops in that area, well trained and equipped, you would need maybe 150.000 soldiers.
But the reality on the ground is completely different.

Buk chassis and missiles being clearly not 9M38 missiles.

Why isn´t NATO sending their equivalent of Buk? 

Big_Gazza wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:This is the reason why I find it difficult to understand why Russia refuses to kill the representatives of Ukrainian regime. Why kill thousands of conscripts instead of cutting the head of the monster.

Simple.  It is in Russias long term interest for every last Ukrainian male of fighting age who hates Russia to be given the chance to join the AFU, pick up a weapon, head to the front and to get KILLED.  That means one less Ukro enemy to deal with after the fighting is done, and one less potential troublemaker or potential insurgent.  Some men will be consripted against their will and forced to fight, many or even most of them will be ethnic Russians, and that is unfortunate, but it doesn't change the logic.  If those unwilling victims of the regime die in combat, most of the blame will fall on the shoulders of the deposed Ukronazi regime, ie a Russian micro-win. If those unwilling victims survive until the final defeat and are demobilised, they will most likely blame their misfortune on the deposed Ukronazi regime, ie a Russian micro-win. Such micro-wins will accumulate to Russias gain.

This is the calculus of war.  It's nasty, brutal, inhuman and borderline psychotic, but its the only way to win a struggle between two so profoundly at-odds ideological outlooks.  Kill or be killed, eliminate the enemy, hold your nose and suspend your basic humanity until the job is done and the healing can start.  Russia didn't want this bloody fratricidal war (NATO did) but will sure as hell finish it, and will finish it to their satisfaction.

I don't agree that Russia is following such logic

You know back in 1999 when Putin cemented an alliance with Kadyrov Sr. there were still plenty of Chechens willing to fight Russia. There were as well in 2002 or whenever it was, when Kadyrov Jr. announced an amnesty... or rather there were many rebels with their backs to the wall who didn't see an alternative prior to that, other than to keep fighting. But the amnesty over time had a big effect and many people opted to return to civilian life. Kadyrov's own men were fighting Russia in the 1st war. Yet then they began fighting for Russia, and continue to do so now in the Ukraine.

So it is too with the Ukraine. Simply prolonging the war to drain the entire country of manpower on account of them being all Russia-haters (even with a large unwilling contingent as you admit) doesn't make sense as an optimal strategy. Not only will the war take longer and Russia will incur more casualties, but after the war there will be no-one to run the economy either and the territory will just be a burden on Russia with nothing but disabled, women with kids, and other dependents populating it.

The supply of Russia haters will in fact end, when you end the regime. And while there may be an insurgency if this is done sooner rather than later, an insurgency is far less deadly than a full-scale war.

As to why Russia is not ending the regime - simply put it can't. For one thing it doesn't control enough population centers in the country to establish a viable alternative government. In fact Russia elected out of this approach in preference to simply annexing territory and pretending that everybody is Russian - which actually makes things harder. Russia doesn't have the alliance of any elites in the country as any that were willing to ally with Russia were quickly purged by the Banderites, and have been whittled down since 2014 besides that. Killing off regime functionaries will incur a large diplomatic penalty in the UN, and likely won't accomplish much as the replacements could potentially be more competent if anything.
Advancing further into the Ukraine with more ambitious strategies was inherently risky on account of the possibility of NATO intervening while Russian forces are overstretched, and would also incur more casualties on Russia which didn't sit well with a casualty-averse Kremlin that insists on portraying the war as an SMO and avoiding announcing any additional mobilization.

So we're stuck with this war of attrition, but one that heavily favours Russia and that Russia is waging far more competently than the Ukraine and NATO has.
But that doesn't mean that any opportunity to end the war early and cut the supply of manpower to the Ukrainian regime shouldn't be taken if it presents itself. IMO it's all about reaching this breaking point at which Ukrainian morale collapses and their forces start to surrender. This psychological part of the war IMO, is something that Russia has not managed very well.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claim 1620 Ukrainian casualties over the past 24 hours. Of these 170 plus 34 POW's in the new border operation.

https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12512580@egNews

Information appears that the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has begun the transfer of units from Kherson to Kharkov.

Ukraine fell for the bait

Expect the main push to start soon

Arkanghelsk wrote: Information appears that the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has begun the transfer of units from Kherson to Kharkov.

Ukraine fell for the bait

Expect the main push to start soon

I think the feint in Kharkov should be given a realistic feel. Russian air forces need to obliterate the meat wagons. Then they should drive the fascist filth out of the rest of Zaprozhiye and Kherson.

ucmvulcan wrote:


I think the feint in Kharkov should be given a realistic feel.  Russian air forces need to obliterate the meat wagons.  Then they should drive the fascist filth out of the rest of Zaprozhiye and Kherson.

It's only a feint to the extent that they transfer reserves

It's up to Syrsky

How does he want to lose the left bank

Either by defending Pokrovsk,  or defending Kharkov

Either way, one of them is going to fall

The choice is his

But soon the northern wind will start blowing in Sumy and Chernigov

And the marines have already captured an island in kherson

This shouldn't be interpreted as a simple feint

It's a full blown offensive with the characteristics of Brusilovs offensive from ww1

Force them to deploy their last reserves, tie them down, and then start the push

No spearheads or column formations

Purely wedge formations with 2-3 echelons

This is how you break out of positional warfare and into operational maneuver

History is the greatest teacher

Actually to expand

In 1916, the central powers had fought the RU imperial army to a positional stalemate along the entire Frontline from Riga to Iasi

The Frontline never moved more than several meters

In this instance, the Germans launched an offensive and had expended its reserves attacking the French culminating in the battle of Verdun on the western front

The Russian high command - Stavka had received proposals from General Alexei Brusilov on how to break the positional stalemate

The plan was for General Lebed and General Evert to launch simultaneously an offensive in the north

While in the south, Brusilov would command 4 armies and force a breech in the Austro-Hungarian lines

The tactics were radically different from the human waves that all armies used at the time

Instead of concentrating his forces into a single fist

He dispersed them in wedge formations attacking along sectors 15km wide, with layers of echelons to sustain the offensive thrusts

In order to stave off the offensives in the north, German command transfered its last reserves to plug gaps around Minsk

This stabilized the lines in the north

But in the south, a different situation brewed

Brusilov unleashed a hellish artillery barrage (like we see around Ukraine) and opened 20+ breaches in their lines

From there, the 7th, 8th, 9th, and 11th armies used shocktroops to detect the weak points

Followed up by the main forces

The result was spectacular, they overwhelmed the Austro-Hungarian lines and broke into enemy territory

The relevance is that in the conditions of this war, where surprise is irrelevant due to the prevalence of ISR and surveillance means

The only solution is to tactically overwhelm Ukraine in spite of observation and knowledge of Russian force concentrations

This leads to the "washing machine" offensive or Brusilovs offensive 2.0

Russia has systematically destroyed Ukrainian weapons, from artillery, Air defense, vehicles and its manpower by inflicting horrendous casualties and by forcing them to tie down their reserves

We saw in January how multiple axis were activated, Russia attacked in Rabotino, Avdeyevka, Sinkovka, and Novomikhailovka, Russia did this by transferring its forces anytime Ukraine brought reserves up

With superior mobility and logistics, they overwhelmed Ukraine and captured 400km2 of land from Avdeyevka to the Ocheretino Flower

This set the stage for what we see now

Even more expanded operations, attacking simultaneously- not seeking to advance deeply

But straining the Ukrainian army horizontally to force a collapse of the front

Naturally the Kharkov/Sumy/Chernigov/Kherson/Donetsk operations will culminate into a contiguous offensive where Russia will activate different parts of the front to collapse the left bank defenses

They have no need to transfer their own manpower anymore as they have reached superior manpower in all directions

Ukraine has no good options here, their high command knows Russias intentions but can do little to change its reality

Arkanghelsk wrote:
Ukraine fell for the bait

They did not.
Only there was no other option to follow.
Sun Tzu.
Classic.

https://t.me/infantmilitario/126341

The work of Russian artillery on the border of Sumy and Belgorod regions.

Karl Haushofer wrote:This is the reason why I find it difficult to understand why Russia refuses to kill the representatives of Ukrainian regime. Why kill thousands of conscripts instead of cutting the head of the monster.

Because Zelensky is not the monster, Ukrainian fully Nazi population is

Zelensky is one of the greatest assets Russia has in this war

Killing those Nazi conscripts is THE primary objective in the whole war

Once you cut that head off the monster it will die for good unlike in 1946 when they were treating symptoms instead of disease

Population is the disease, Zelensky is just the symptom

As long as he keeps sending those Nazis into the wood chipper Zelensky must be protected at all costs

Important to remember zelen is just a figure head here, kill him and someone just like him will take his place or worse you risk someone who knows what they are doing getting into the position

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Important to remember zelen is just a figure head here, kill him and someone just like him will take his place or worse you risk someone who knows what they are doing getting into the position

Things would only be worse for the average Ukrainian.  The reason Putin has not taken out the Ukrainian high command is the same reason the Chinese and USAAF never wasted their time taking out PuYi and the Manchukuo puppet government and why no effort was taken to bomb Vichy and kill Petain.  Sure, de jure, Vichy and Manchukuo were "sovereign" states, but everyone knew that both Petain and PuYi were puppets.  Their military forces and surface ships were attacked, but not them because they were puppets.  Ukraine is the same thing.  IF you want to take out Ukraine's military leadership you have to hit Bonn, Paris, London, Berlin, and Washington because that is where the decision making centers are.

Karl Haushofer wrote:This is the reason why I find it difficult to understand why Russia refuses to kill the representatives of Ukrainian regime. Why kill thousands of conscripts instead of cutting the head of the monster.

The head of the monster is in Washington, Brussels, London, Paris and Tel Aviv, not Kiev.

Killing incompetent leaders only leads to more competent (anti-Russian) leadership taking over.

Ukrainian conscripts (knowingly) obey commanders who are sending them to their deaths, killing Zelensky won't change that.

The US has spent 30+ years brainwashing soft Ukrainian brains to hate and blame Russia for all their problems, current pro-Nazi dictatorship is a symptom of the problem, not the cause.

Conquering the Ukraine quickly and occupying them would've led to an insurgency unrivaled in size and scope with the full support of NATO ISR providing target acquisition for some kind of Slavic ISIS in the Ukraine and Russia too.

Ultimately, Russia chose the least worst option for themselves which was "Demilitarization and Denazification" aka killing hundreds of thousands of Ukropeons who were willing (or acquiescent enough) to fight and die for Nazis, NATO, the liberal world order, EU 'values' and the unelected Dicktaker, Nazilensky.

PapaDragon wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:This is the reason why I find it difficult to understand why Russia refuses to kill the representatives of Ukrainian regime. Why kill thousands of conscripts instead of cutting the head of the monster.

Because Zelensky is not the monster, Ukrainian fully Nazi population is

Zelensky is one of the greatest assets Russia has in this war

Killing those Nazi conscripts is THE primary objective in the whole war

It would be a mistake, for the Russian ideological mindset, all what these people are are misguided Russian brothers unaware of their sins.

They must be saved not exactly by pummeling them but by making them realize how silly it is to follow these golden calves that are the EU, NATO and American Hegemony.

9th May celebrations have a MUCH more persuasive effect on that populace than any amount of bombs and idiotic genocidal drivel might ever have. As the Ukies are then faced directly with their own massive contradiction which is to either celebrate their very own ancestors who drove out a monstruous invasion hell bent on destroying the entire Russian AND Ukrainian nation, or to put a veil on it and face the Nazi alternative.

As indeed what the West and the dirty Zelensky regime is doing right now is force feeding the Nazis onto the Ukrainian population. Whereas a newly born Ukrainian nation is obligated to relinquish the sacrifice of millions of Ukrainian soldiers and instead praise some genocidal groups with ideas to cleanse much of Ukraine itself, an unnatural and outright evil alternative especially for eastern Ukrainians.

I sure hope Ukies will finally wake up from this existential nightmare and decide for themselves what is best for this young nation, which by nature is tied to the Russian ensemble as long as there is Russian blood on its roots.

In that view, it is way better to keep the equally highly confused Zelensky gang in there with all the ideological blunders that go with them.

Tu 22M3 launch Kh 32.
https://t.me/jnb_news/48401