Russian special military operation in Ukraine #60

Backman wrote:The fucking govt of Ukraine should be in exile in Poland. Not sitting comfortably in Kiev.

No. It needs to go further.

The fucking govt of Poland should be in exile in Belgium.

Big moves by Russian forces in the Donbass theatre of operations.   Eat shit NAFO mutts

Ukraine may well have 120k troops on Belarusian border however the standard of these troops will be terrible. 1 week trained civilians, ex cons, injured, mentally ill, learning disabilities, and old age pensioners. Up against a mined border facing a trained military force, and most likely remnants of Wagner. Belarus has armour, artillery, Air Defence, anti armour weapons, air force. Although Belarus has a fairly small force they can still call up reserves. And if you send ill trained, ill equipped, unmotivated, low morale, no experience troops it counts for nothing up against a well trained army.

Belarusian Air defence has Buk, S-300, S-400, Tor these are more then a deterrent against Ukrainian aircraft. Belarus has a decent amount of Mig-29 with around a squadron upgraded to equivalent to SMT level, a handful of Su-30. And Mi-24 as well as a large number of Su-25and recently reactivated a squadron of Su-24(to be armed with nuclear weapons but could be used with conventional arms) and they have shown their Yak-130 with arms. Couple this with BM-21, BM-27, BM-30, Totcka, Iskander, Polonez and a mined border suddenly an invasion but such a terrible force seems like a bad idea. Belarus also has a defence industry which will be able to maintain it's forces. Belarus still retains a fairly large amount of weapons, ammo, armour in reserve. They have also been producing drones as well.

I see this as a move by Ukraine to threaten Belarus thinking that Russia might divert troops but Russia won't fall for such. Ukraine can't afford to start such a war with another country it would also contradict their argument that Russia is bad for invading another country. Ukraine is struggling to arm and equip it's front lines and it can't cope with a large front like this. And I would imagine Belarus has been preparing for such events and well trained for such an invasion ever since the war started. Transnistria is far more weaker target although it would serve zero strategic value and would just be seen as an extermination of people Russian people and yet again a contradiction to the big bad Russia invading another country line. Belgorod is more likely their next target.

Russia needs to kill and destroy as much equipment as possible in Kursk, while capitalising on its gains in Donbass and keep grinding and taking land here, and thirdly targeting F-16 aircraft. If Ukraine loses it's F-16 which is seen as some kind of saviour equipment and their invasion into Russia fails and they are pushed back over the border with high equipment and troop losses, then add in large land losses in Donbass, it will surely have a huge impact on troop morale and donors wanting to continue to prop them up.

Original article is behind paywall, but I anyway put original story and archived version. WP claims 320 prisoners of war during Kursk incursion and from that 250 conscripts. Honestly, I expected about 100 conscripts from what was seen, so I'm not sure about number. Russian MoD should come out with official numbers.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/16/ukraine-russia-soldiers-conscripts-kursk/
https://archive.is/DTAhg

d_taddei2 wrote:Ukraine may well have 120k troops on Belarusian border however the standard of these troops will be terrible. 1 week trained civilians, ex cons, injured, mentally ill, learning disabilities, and old age pensioners. Up against a mined border facing a trained military force, and most likely remnants of Wagner. Belarus has armour, artillery, Air Defence, anti armour weapons, air force. Although Belarus has a fairly small force they can still call up reserves. And if you send ill trained, ill equipped, unmotivated, low morale, no experience troops it counts for nothing up against a well trained army.

Belarusian Air defence has Buk, S-300, S-400, Tor these are more then a deterrent against Ukrainian aircraft. Belarus has a decent amount of Mig-29 with around a squadron upgraded to equivalent to SMT level, a handful of Su-30. And Mi-24 as well as a large number of Su-25and recently reactivated a squadron of Su-24(to be armed with nuclear weapons but could be used with conventional arms) and they have shown their Yak-130 with arms. Couple this with BM-21, BM-27, BM-30, Totcka, Iskander, Polonez and a mined border suddenly an invasion but such a terrible force seems like a bad idea. Belarus also has a defence industry which will be able to maintain it's forces. Belarus still retains a fairly large amount of weapons, ammo, armour in reserve. They have also been producing drones as well.

I see this as a move by Ukraine to threaten Belarus thinking that Russia might divert troops but Russia won't fall for such. 

I don't think these troops are there to attack Belarus, but to defend against possible Russian attack from the north. Lukashenko made a comment about these troops already several months ago, except that number he claimed.was around 110k. Most likely, these troops are rotated in/out that area from Donbas and other areas of active fighting when they are in need of rest and replenishment.

Interesting quote from Vojvoda about Ukrainian troops in Kursk:
https://t.me/ZOV_Voevoda/18794

Briefly about the situation.

The enemy is still trying to penetrate several sectors of the front in the Kursk region.
Our group, having had its fill of reinforcements, is also trying to attack.

The enemy is "blind". Yesterday's picture, when 2 tanks, leaning forward, wandered around like blind kittens until one of them was burned. They have a connection problem. It continues to grow.

There is little old meat among the prisoners.
Basically, no older than 35, in good physical shape. There are many who voluntarily signed the contract and generally served until 2022.
Not those idiots who were grabbed by the recruiters at the age of 50, who have to be beaten in the DPR.
There is a fresh, trained, evil and arrogant enemy on our territory.

caveat emptor wrote:

mnztr wrote:

The 10K are all scatttered so it will take some time to mop them up. They will get droned when they go out to take a shit. The 120K in Belarus probably have encampments and are in larger clusters, but that is probably 800-1000km away unless you attack from Belarus. So they would have to use kaliber missiles or SU 34 with a long flight over Urkaine (which it can do) we are talking 4h mission to deliver FABs.

Length of the Belarus-Ukraine border is over 1000 kilometers.  In a straight line, from  east to west it is 600.
They will certainly not send Su-34 in long range missions over Ukraine, since they stopped doing that during 2022. In any case they are much more needed in Kursk and over Ukraininan front.
Kursk is much easier to solve, as it is easy to supply, plus there's 200k refugees and political cost to take into calculations.  Also, i believe that Lukashenko will be much more careful going forward and try to keep Belarus out of any hostilities for as long as possible.  

There are NO SHORTAGE of SU-34s for the SMO. There are probably over 200 at this point, if they were eash doing 2 sorties a day that would be 4800 T of ordinence. Does it look like thats happening? Personally I think the shortage is ramping up glide kit production.

New York has been liberated by Russian Forces.

mnztr wrote:

There are NO SHORTAGE of SU-34s for the SMO. There are probably over 200 at this point, if they were eash doing 2 sorties a day that would be 4800 T of ordinence. Does it look like thats happening? Personally I think the shortage is ramping up glide kit production.

So you want to make a shortage by sending them on missions deep over enemy territory?
And no, there's no 200 of them. Unless Russia started churning them in a big way, which there'sno indication of. Also, 28-9 were lost in different ways in the last 2.5 years.

caveat emptor wrote:So you want to make a shortage by sending them on missions deep over enemy territory?
And no, there's no 200 of them. Unless Russia started churning them in a big way, which there'sno indication of. Also, 28-9 were lost in different ways in the last 2.5 years.  

They did increase the production rate. This was hinted at in the latest Military Acceptance video on the Su-34.

lancelot wrote:
They did increase the production rate. This was hinted at in the latest Military Acceptance video on the Su-34.

I did, but it wasn't quantified. BMPD livejournal mentioned something about 10 in 2022, 12 2023 and 16-18 this year. This is only numbers i've seen quoted by reputable source.

If you watched the latest episode of CA yesterday, you would know what they are doing.

xeno wrote:If you watched the latest episode of CA yesterday, you would know what they are doing.

I watched it. Amount of current work they are doing is also bigger due to more need for overhauls and modernizations due to the fact that planes fly many more sorties. Novosibirsk plant is doing many things concurrently, not only for military. Voena priomka never quoted any numbers for newly produced or modernized planes, so i am going by what bmpd posted. If you have other sources, feel free to share.

According to Lukashenko, Ukraine has 120K men stationed near Belarus border. So apparently Ukraine has plenty of men to send to other regions like it did in Kursk.

They probably have another 500K men throughout Ukraine, including police, firemen, press gangs to gather up men to the front line, and of course all the aircrew and soldiers stationed in other parts of the country... if Ukraine sent those men to the front then Russia could invade between the gaps knowing there is nothing behind the front line of these barely trained troops.

Wasn't it WWI when the elite troops were held back to protect the government in Russia and over time news from the front and agitators eventually got to them and they had a revolution to overthrow the government... that can happen any time so the government needs to keep trusted people in important places in Kiev and also in other cities to make sure they don't get such ideas.

The suggestion that they could actually fight to the last man is ridiculous.

Why doesn't Russia destroy these 120,000 men?

Because they are doing nothing standing on the border with Belarus?

The guys on the front line and in the incursion are more important and more relevant targets.

Incompetence.

For whatever reason, Russian authorities are holding back for nothing other than to extend the amount of deaths and blunders of their own.

To work out the level of stupidity in your post Seph, just take a look at who liked it...

Even if we assume the figure is correct and there are 120K men on the border with Belarus, which means there are 120 men per kilometre... that is going to take a lot of bombs and missiles with such low density.... and even if you achieve your goal... they were being faced by two or three times that number of Russians and Belarussian soldiers on the other side of that border... they aren't doing anything but Kiev needs them there to stop Russia from flanking them... the Ukraine hasn't got enough to hold the front line and is pissing away its best trained and equipped soldiers on ego trip incursions that are being mopped up and just making Russians hate them more.

Remember many Ukrainians hated Russians but that number is being offset by the number who realise their own government and their western allies are the ones ruining their country and killing their people.

Henry Kissenger said "It may be dangerous to be an enemy of the US of A, but as they are finding... being a friend is fatal" ...to their culture and their country, their resources and their people. No men left and all their resources owned by US companies and still with a massive debt to pay off...

The Russians generally didn't hate Ukrainians... a bit like the British and Americans... you like to beat them at sport, there is a rivalry there, but you don't want to see them dead.

Well thanks to Zelensky and the actions and announcements of the west Russians are realising that for now the west is an enemy... there are parts they can talk to and do business with and have normal relations, but most of the rest can just **** off.

The Russian military is capable. But for whatever reason, the high command is just sitting still.

The Russian military is capable, but not all powerful. Russia hasn't killed all the Ukrainian border troops on the border with Belarus for the same reason the entire force of HATO didn't kill all the 50-60K taliban in Afghanistan over the period of 20 years they were in that country... It is not just a question of making a choice.

For fucks sake they can't even win the war on drugs... prescribed drugs kill more americans than anything else... gun crime kills about 40K Americans, about the same... 42K dead in road accidents... prescription drugs kill about 100K per year... and these are prescription drugs... NOT illegal drugs.

Why can't America fix that?

Maybe it is planned and they want the US population to be medicated and stupid.

As opposed to just stupid.

Putin was apparently visibly angry, meaning that even he is aware of the **** ups.

Of course he is angry... this internal civil war between Ukrainian factions where pro Russian Ukrainians were getting murdered by anti Russian Ukrainians should never have gotten this far... in a rules based international order Kiev should have been hit with massive international sanctions the second they banned a language and a culture, let alone when they started shelling and bombing their own people and burning them to death in buildings for wanting to speak that language... but the international community remained silent. Encouraged them even... from the western backers of this shithole.

Putin has been forced to intervene at great cost to Russia and Russians and of course he is not happy about that, nor this escalation on the part of Kiev.

He will go through his options and he will take action that benefits Russia and Russians and damages the west and kiev as much as possible.

This is interesting because for a year and a half now the narrative has been that the Ukrainian forces are about to fall apart.

Because the people thinking that were looking at their actual losses and wondering why Ukrainians are so keen to get Russians to kill them to benefit big US companies who are going to take ownership of everything valuable in their country as soon as they can.

The people thinking they will fall apart ignored the fact that these people are morons and don't actually know what is happening and more importantly WHY.

Luka likely told Moscow he doesn't want to get involved directly military so there will be none of russian troops using his land for attacks against Ukie forces, remember Russia and Bela are two different countries

Luka likely told Moscow he doesn't want to get involved directly military so there will be none of russian troops using his land for attacks against Ukie forces, remember Russia and Bela are two different countries

Putin likely does not want Belarus involved in this conflict either because it is useful to base nuclear armed missiles there to target parts of HATO that can't reach very far based in Kaliningrad, and are too vulnerable to have too many there.

The 120K in Belarus probably have encampments and are in larger clusters, but that is probably 800-1000km away unless you attack from Belarus.

If you started hitting them they would scatter... 120K over 1,000km is 120 men per km.... but they wont be bunched up on one camp because they do have to cover the entire length of the border...

Its a dumb rhetorical question. They are scattered in small groups in huge forests and abandoned towns. And they snuck in from huge forests and abandoned towns from across the border. Which has no natural barriers. Has anyone not learned anything about this war ye

It is a dumb question, but I agree that it is just as dumb as asking the original question.... or any such questions like that... why didn't America kill all the north korean soldiers in the korean war... why didn't they just kill all their enemies in every war they have ever fought?

Are they incompetent or is that just a fucking stupid question.... I think the answer is obvious... if you are not sure PM me and I will tell you.

When you got both Pepe Escobar and the Duran saying that Putin was visibly angry, and I notice he was visibly angry, means that things really didn't go to plan and someone fucked up severely.

You assume he is angry at his own people, but I would say it is likely he is angry with Kiev for doing this and making all of this necessary, and also angry with the west for funding and supporting them for committing these war crimes. (whether you agree with him or not, he has decided an incursion that kills civilians and tries to destroy the Crimean bridge and capture or destroy a nuclear power plant, are terrorist acts that are unnecessary escalations from an enemy that has already lost... like a player with just their king left and you have all 16 pieces and you are cornering him and he is trying to knock the game off the table onto the floor so he can call it a draw...).

Bad cricket.

Putin likes rules and laws and follows them even when it is not convenient.

Then when I'm reading various Russians response and how they keep saying that the upper command are useless twats with no experience or as Caveat said, full of medals but never faced combat, then gives me indication it was gross incompetence.

I would say the Ukrainians have a better case to make such claims of their own military and those in the west who are supporting Kiev to perform these attacks and actions.

If the high command of the Russian military was incompetent they would not be in the place they are now in terms of this conflict and several other recent ones.

Or perhaps you don't understand the meaning of the word incompetent?

You do understand that the western use of the term means someone who does something a way I don't agree with and don't understand... they seem to get good results but I don't like it.

They must be incompetent.

Now let's see what Ukraine does with its soldiers bordering Belarus.

On past form... try to invade the Crimea by getting them to jump into the water in Turkey and swim... in full gear. Ironically their western armour will sink immediately so it will probably kill fewer Ukrainian soldiers than it did in the other areas of the war...

Even if they don't have 120K troops near Belarus, if they even have troops there to begin with, says a lot more than Russia being caught with its pants down in Kursk.

If these 120K men exist they are border guards, they are not fucking SEAL team 6. Most would likely surrender... half are likely overweight and couldn't be sent to the front because of health issues.

So please, why waste munitions against a force in being when you have forces at the front that require more attention. However, I am sure these formations will soon get attacked.

I suspect after 3 years these guys have a very realistic understanding of what will happen if they go to the eastern front.... there is a history of this in Europe and it is not popular no matter what uniform you wear and who sent you.

If Zelensky starts trying to send these guys... 60K to 120K... how ever many there might be, it is more likely they will revolt and refuse to go... remember these guys are actually armed... but I doubt they have a lot of armour or supply units operating with them currently.

And this is going to keep happening. Russia will eventually snuff out Kursk. And keep making slow progress in the east. And while another year passes, the US will arm and plan another one of these attacks. What gives ? Now instead of just towns in ukraine getting destroyed , there's towns in Russia getting destroyed.

Destroyed? You mean about to get upgrades and improvements...

It took a year and a half of specialist training to get those guys to the level to execute this sort of mission and some of them are western mercs because they didn't have enough Ukrainians for the job... in a years time there wont be a conflict in the Ukraine except over whose fault it was.

It is like their wonder weapons... the first time it is a surprise, but after that you expect it and you know how to deal with it and it will fail horribly.

The west was hoping this would be a game changer... shelling markets probably killed more civilians over the last few years.

But the point is that it is Russia that has the numbers... Putins response to this incursion might be two new incursions every week into Ukrainian territory... the Orcs are stretched as it is and will not be able to cope with such a thing... and where they can't cope the Russian forces can push deep into Ukrainian territory... and when it comes time to peace talks they can decide whether to trade Ukrainian territory for prisoners and Russian territory or not.

Russia can afford to fight like this. But so can the US and Nato. If Russia doesn't change its strategy , the next 5 years is going to look like the last 2.

Kiev is not going to last 2 years... Kiev is not going to last 8 months...

The entire govt of Ukraine and the administrative state has to be destroyed. Make it harder for them. The fucking govt of Ukraine should be in exile in Poland. Not sitting comfortably in Kiev.

The problem there is answered... no point in trying to take out the Kiev leadership because they will just move to Poland or Brussels.

Blow up the US embassy in Kiev... it has thousands of workers... what do you think they are doing? Not issuing green cards.

Their signals intel will have worked out communications centres in Kiev and where the orders are coming from and will have a good idea of which buildings to drop.

Humint will also be improving as Ukrainians realise who is the real problem for their country and their people.

Like Garry I believe that the US embassy in Kiev should be targeted. Unlike him I think it should just be a warning shot, a direct hit being a declaration of war.

If you just want a warning shot then just publicly state that it is part of this conflict and will be eliminated if it is not closed down in a day.

The problem is that they will just move everything somewhere else and it will just continue.

A Kinzhal or three set to detonate at different levels of the building would get rid of the problem and likely cripple the Ukrainian government and Ukrainian military.

Lots of Chinese people and Iranian people will think it is perfectly fine when Russia says it used old maps and thought it was a childrens hospital and petting zoo.

Objective being to scare the shit out of all the people there who didn't believe they had signed up to be at risk in a war zone and to make life harder within it.

These are people who hate Russians and are working hard to keep Ukraine in this war... fuckem.

At the same time make a mess of the westbound railway lines out of Kiev to make escape more difficult.

I would say the opposite... make a mess of the east bound traffic as that is likely taking men and weapons and ammo to the front line.... or it is going to collect grain or coal or other resources from the east to ship west to make money.

Traffic going west will be anti Russians running from the oncoming horde... good to get them out of the way and out of the referendums that will follow.

I've been thinking that this whole Kursk offensive was a trap.

The attack was an attack, but Putin tends to make attacks from the enemy into traps for the enemy...

What regime change? Russia cannot regime change.

I think he means the people of the countries realising their governments are idiots and voting in less russophobic parties that might want to improve relations with Russia... like France for instance with Moron gone any replacement might be more practical and sensible.

Certainly there are countries that have worked hard to remain as neutral as they could like Hungary and now Fico in Slovakia? and of course Serbia and even Turkey with whom Russia has good trade and relations with.

Chance of having a pro-Russian (or even neutral to Russia) government in countries like Germany, Britain, France is close to zero. Chance of having a pro-Russian (or even neutral to Russia) government in Finland, Poland and Baltic states is exactly zero.

I don't think he is talking about pro Russia, he is just talking about neutral and practical... interested in business and trade and not about the intolerance the west has been displaying the last few centuries against Russia.

He is talking about trade so actually many EU countries still buy Russian gas and oil and other products... some pretend they are not by buying from third parties but that is where it comes from and they just end up paying a higher price by having a middle man as part of the transaction.

Neutral countries would just trade directly with Russia and save money. Anti Russian countries... well... who cares how much they end up paying, I am sure they will think it is worth it.

If Russia - after all of this is over (and if Russia exists by then) - ever fall for these "from Vladivostok to Lisbon" idiocies ever again then they are the biggest morons on this planet.

I think that ship has sailed, Russia has turned away from the west and is engaging and trading with the rest of the world, which is an enormous market with lots of opportunities for both partners to make money and improve and grow and develop.

I thought Ukraine was already out of soldiers.

They are... now they have IT guys and accountants.... and if these 120K exist they are border guards... no artillery no armour... probably a whistle and a baton.

There is no such thing as "reputable source" nowadays, and even that reporter was not allowed to film the whole workshop due to obvious reasons, but they did mention that they can produce 3 more after modifying the production process while maintaining the quality, although they didn't say from what basis.
Anyway you can believe in BMPD, it is your problem.

Since he was always considered as a very solid and knowledgeable source on Russian military, there's nothing better out there to go with.

I believe we have all seen where he was wrong. Been mentioned through the years.

Officially, they can produce much more. As xeno said, it's up to you what you want to believe. NAPO is now running at 3 shifts so they would be able to produce more or at least get much more done with the workforce they got.

That is some next level cope, If it was just a few thousand missing them is understandable but with sates, recon drones etc amassing that many men and the russians missing it isn't defendable.

It wasn't a trap, the Russians where caught with their pants down, they had no troops in the are at the amount needed.

I don't even think Putin is that gullible enough to honor some "deal" about not attacking and thinning out troops on purpose, that is one of the silliest excuses I have heard to date

Arrow wrote:his year, the industry in Russia has significantly increased production of combat aircraft. About 20 Su-34s and about 20 Su-57s are coming out. The question is how many Su-35s and Su-30s?

I doubt that amount of Su-57 will come out. I heard nothing about Megapolis aka Su-57M coming out of flight testing. They also haven't delivered any Su-57M this year thus far. So it is highly unlikely they will deliver 20. They would be lucky to deliver any at all.

Of course this is because of the Russian MoD's insistence that the next aircraft must be Su-57M and not the regular Su-57.

I think the number of Su-34, Su-35, and Su-30 delivered should be quite high.

caveat emptor wrote:Original article is behind paywall, but I anyway put original story and archived version. WP claims 320 prisoners of war during Kursk incursion and from that 250 conscripts. Honestly, I expected about 100 conscripts from what was seen, so I'm not sure about number. Russian MoD should come out with official numbers.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/16/ukraine-russia-soldiers-conscripts-kursk/
https://archive.is/DTAhg

I really would not put overly much stock into the claims of enemy propaganda mouthpieces smack in the middle of an ongoing offensive and corresponding info-war campaign.

Based on what information, did you decide that there were even 100 prisoners at all, nevermind 100 conscripts?
I've already posted a video Ukrainians filmed where there was a captured FSB borderguard with certainly hair length far beyond anything tolerated during my time - claiming that he was a conscript.
The Ukros are engaged in a massive bullshit operation here. Both about who they took prisoner and how many.

Not that I entirely discount the possibility of course, of a large number of Russian POWs captured. One can't assume the competency of green units and their commanders. But it would be pretty strange if several times as many Russians would have been captured on their own land as Ukrainian troops on enemy land while the later are basically fighting at a disadvantage and being attacked from the air as well.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:That is some next level cope, If it was just a few thousand missing them is understandable but with sates, recon drones etc amassing that many men and the russians missing it isn't defendable.

It wasn't a trap, the Russians where caught with their pants down, they had no troops in the are at the amount needed.

I don't even think Putin is that gullible enough to honor some "deal" about not attacking and thinning out troops on purpose, that is one of the silliest excuses I have heard to date

Again there is no such as being caught with their pants down.

The Russians can be caught with their pants down on the Chinese border, but not on the Ukrainian one. Simply because they have a lot of defenses there and a lot of reserves. And as soon as the enemy crosses they spring into action, regardless of whether or not they had prior warning.
The defenses are not meant to be rigid, hence it's a given that any large enemy incursion will be able to take some bordering territory.

About the trap theory I also have my doubts, but it's somewhat more plausible to me than Russia simply not having any defenses there are at all because they thought some deal would be honored and then being blitzkrieg'd and having to rush reinforcements and throw conscripts into battle in desperation.
In fact the Ukrainians have managed so far to capture nothing important at all or accomplish anything.