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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #60

    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Mon Aug 19, 2024 10:27 am

    Yes, there is, if you miss a mass grouping of enemy forces and those forces exploit that to execute a surprise attack, that is the very definition of being caught with your pants down.

    The saying means that you are caught unaware and taken by surprise, that the text book example of it

    This cope is getting sad,

    what you said makes sense if they weren't scrambling to redeploy forces, and the fact is the russians were in a huge rush to move troops from other areas, it was not a well-coordinated move they were sending units piecemeal into areas to organize them.

    IF what you said was true they would have had these forces at staging points ready to counter-attack much sooner than they did, fact is they weren't hence that russian convoy getting himmered.

    Russia wasn't expecting this attack, they didn't know about it until it happened.

    The only reason Ukraine failed to penetrate deeper is because they have so few forces to spare they could not group up the numbers needed

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    Post  lancelot Mon Aug 19, 2024 11:26 am

    So what if Russia was caught somewhat unprepared at Kursk? No one in their right mind would think the Ukrainians would do such a dumb move. It is as simple as that. Look at the Kursk border region. It is empty spaces and tiny hamlets. The largest place they captured at Kursk is Sudzha. A place with a population of 5,127 people. Compare that with Niu York that the Russians captured at roughly the same time with a pre war population of 10,064.

    Just continue thinking Ukraine is doing some sort of masterstroke with this move when all they will get is a boot to their face.

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    Post  Belisarius Mon Aug 19, 2024 11:27 am

    flamming_python wrote:
    I really would not put overly much stock into the claims of enemy propaganda mouthpieces smack in the middle of an ongoing offensive and corresponding info-war campaign.

    Based on what information, did you decide that there were even 100 prisoners at all, nevermind 100 conscripts?
    I've already posted a video Ukrainians filmed where there was a captured FSB borderguard with certainly hair length far beyond anything tolerated during my time - claiming that he was a conscript.
    The Ukros are engaged in a massive bullshit operation here. Both about who they took prisoner and how many.

    Not that I entirely discount the possibility of course, of a large number of Russian POWs captured. One can't assume the competency of green units and their commanders. But it would be pretty strange if several times as many Russians would have been captured on their own land as Ukrainian troops on enemy land while the later are basically fighting at a disadvantage and being attacked from the air as well.

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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Mon Aug 19, 2024 11:42 am

    lancelot wrote:So what if Russia was caught somewhat unprepared at Kursk? No one in their right mind would think the Ukrainians would do such a dumb move. It is as simple as that. Look at the Kursk border region. It is empty spaces and tiny hamlets. The largest place they captured at Kursk is Sudzha. A place with a population of 5,127 people. Compare that with Niu York that the Russians captured at roughly the same time with a pre war population of 10,064.

    Just continue thinking Ukraine is doing some sort of masterstroke with this move when all they will get is a boot to their face.

    I am not debating any of those...why is basic reading comprehension so hard on this forum for people

    I merely said they were taken by surprise to those who are denying they weren't, that is all
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    Post  flamming_python Mon Aug 19, 2024 1:27 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:Yes, there is, if you miss a mass grouping of enemy forces and those forces exploit that to execute a surprise attack, that is the very definition of being caught with your pants down.

    The saying means that you are caught unaware and taken by surprise, that the text book  example of it

    This cope is getting sad,

    what you said makes sense if they weren't scrambling to redeploy forces, and the fact is the russians were in a huge rush to move troops from other areas, it was not a well-coordinated move they were sending units piecemeal into areas to organize them.

    IF what you said was true they would have had these forces at staging points ready to counter-attack much sooner than they did, fact is they weren't hence that russian convoy getting himmered.

    Russia wasn't expecting this attack, they didn't know about it until it happened.

    The only reason Ukraine failed to penetrate deeper is because they have so few forces to spare they could not group up the numbers needed

    They have rapid reaction reserves and whatever staging points or temporary deployment areas they had were a lot further back, as you don't know where precisely the enemy will attack or how. First reinforcements we heard about was the Akhmat forces and Pyatnashka. These are elite units and which weren't currently engaged in the Donbass, hence they were on reserve duty. And they arrived by the 2nd or 3rd day once the enemy had already commited it's troops.

    And if you also have paratroopers that can be deployed across the country at a moment's notice then you don't even need to have reserves close by. That is your defence - mobility. Which is not the same as no defence, as the Ukrainians are finding out.
    And it absolutely would go down the same whether there was intelligence about the enemy's plans or not.

    The destroyed convoy belonged to whatever local unit, during their deployment - and it wasn't far from the front. If they were much closer to the front though, then they could have been himmared as soon as the enemy attacked. The enemy found them in real time at night on the move -  why wouldn't they have found them if they were stationary?

    They didn't penetrate more deeply because it was a retarded plan from the beginning and could never hope to gain success given Russian air power and reserves available. I have no doubt they're going all in here with everything they got.

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    Post  franco Mon Aug 19, 2024 1:57 pm

    Russian MoD reporting 2265 Ukrainian casualties over the past 24 hours including...

    Summary of the Russian Ministry of Defense on the progress of repelling the attempted invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the territory of the Russian Federation (as of August 19, 2024)

    The Armed Forces continue to repel the attempted invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the territory of the Russian Federation.

    Units of the North group of forces, with the support of army aviation and artillery fire, are conducting reconnaissance and search operations to identify and destroy enemy sabotage groups in forests that tried to penetrate deep into Russian territory, south of the settlements of Skrylevka and Sheptukhovka.

    Attacks of enemy assault groups in the direction of the settlements of Olgovka, Russian and Cherkassk Porechnoye were repelled. As a result, the AFU lost a tank, an infantry fighting vehicle, two armored combat vehicles and more than 25 people, four AFU servicemen were captured.

    Air strikes, artillery fire and actions of the defending troops defeated concentrations of manpower and equipment of the 22nd, 61st, 115th mechanized and 80th airborne assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Borki, Bogdanovka, Vishnevka, Viktorovka, Kositsa, Lyubimovka, Melovoy, Snagost, west of Martynovka and south-east of Korenevo.

    Tactical air strikes were carried out on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the reserves of the 82nd airborne assault Brigade, the 103rd and 129th Air Defense brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Basovka, Vorozhba, Krugok, Miropole, Novaya Sich and Sadki of the Sumy region.

    During the day, the losses of the Armed Forces amounted to more than 330 servicemen and 27 armored vehicles, including four tanks, an infantry fighting vehicle, three armored personnel carriers, 19 armored combat vehicles, as well as eight vehicles, two artillery pieces and three mortars.

    In total, during the fighting in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost up to 3,800 troops, 54 tanks, 26 infantry fighting vehicles, 48 armored personnel carriers, 281 armored combat vehicles, 123 vehicles, 27 artillery pieces, five anti-aircraft missile systems, seven multiple launch rocket launchers, including three HIMARS MLRS and one MLRS, five electronic warfare stations, as well as four units of engineering equipment, including two engineering barrage vehicles and one UR-77 mine clearance unit.

    The operation to destroy the AFU formations continues.

    https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12525946@egNews

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    Post  caveat emptor Mon Aug 19, 2024 2:18 pm

    flamming_python wrote:Based on what information, did you decide that there were even 100 prisoners at all, nevermind 100 conscripts?
    Not that I entirely discount the possibility of course, of a large number of Russian POWs captured. One can't assume the competency of green units and their commanders. But it would be pretty strange if several times as many Russians would have been captured on their own land as Ukrainian troops on enemy land while the later are basically fighting at a disadvantage and being attacked from the air as well.
    Many units were overrun in the first two days of the attack. I would not expect conscripts or border guards to fare well against mechanized units. Most likely, conscript units are stripped of some officers, as well, who are taking part in the active fighting in other areas. 
    As I said, I doubt the numbers in the article, but also Russian MoD should come out with the real number. 
    As for Ukrainians, they were coming up with some crazy numbers of over 1000 POWs.
    As for what's strange and what's not, observing this war for so long, nothing is that strange anymore.

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    Post  ALAMO Mon Aug 19, 2024 2:31 pm

    1k ukro POW are not that crazy numbers actually.
    Every single day there are a few documented events of 5-20 taken.
    It started to be boring actually.
    Those are hundreds for sure, soooo ...
    On the other hand, we have only a few revealed situations with Russian POW.
    The last one is hilarious, as it cames from the body cams of liquidated and imprisoned ukrs who documented their "safari". To east the dust 2 days later...
    Anyway, the interesting part is that they have documented kidnapping civilian males not being military of any sort.

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    Post  caveat emptor Mon Aug 19, 2024 2:43 pm

    You misunderstood me. Ukrainians are claiming they hold over 1k Russian POWs, taken in this incursion alone.

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    Post  Broski Mon Aug 19, 2024 2:50 pm

    caveat emptor wrote:You misunderstood me. Ukrainians are claiming they hold over 1k Russian POWs, taken in this incursion alone.
    Yes, lets give the side that's lied about everything the benefit of the doubt for the millionth time, Jesus F Christ! We've seen videos of these scumbags kidnapping Russian civilians from areas they've invaded and laughing their ass off while doing it, which is exactly what you'd expect from White ISIS. Obviously they'll try to use this as a bargaining chip to get some Nazi POW's back, or kill them, or both, because that's what terrorists do.

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    Post  ALAMO Mon Aug 19, 2024 3:01 pm

    Russian official data claim that they don't know the fate of about 2000 civilians.
    If we will combine that with the materials revealed on ukro body cams, we can seriously consider a mass hostage taking.

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    Post  caveat emptor Mon Aug 19, 2024 3:04 pm

    Broski wrote:Yes, lets give the side that's lied about everything the benefit of the doubt for the millionth time, Jesus F Christ! We've seen videos of these scumbags kidnapping Russian civilians from areas they've invaded and laughing their ass off while doing it, which is exactly what you'd expect from White ISIS. Obviously they'll try to use this as a bargaining chip to get some Nazi POW's back, or kill them, or both, because that's what terrorists do.

    I don't believe them for sure. Honestly, I don't believe any side completely, unless some proof is provided. I believe Russian side more, but some of the MoDs claims I take with the grain of salt.
    Like daily losses report, which continues to show losses north of 2k every day for two months already. I can't see how Ukrainian army can sustain these level of losses for such a long period, without completely falling apart. 

    One interesting thing I forgot to mention is a low key talk by some Russian sources, for now, of possible additional attack of Ukrainians in Zaporozhie, with the goal of taking Energodar nuclear plant. Remains to be seen what will come out of it, if anything.
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    Post  caveat emptor Mon Aug 19, 2024 3:05 pm

    ALAMO wrote:Russian official data claim that they don't know the fate of about 2000 civilians.
    If we will combine that with the materials revealed on ukro body cams, we can seriously consider a mass hostage taking.
    For sure, males have been picked up and taken to Sumy region.
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    Post  Arrow Mon Aug 19, 2024 3:40 pm

    How many more of these S 300 systems can Ukraine have, every now and then they destroy some S 300 after two years of war. The number of launchers was probably much greater than officially reported.



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    Post  ALAMO Mon Aug 19, 2024 3:41 pm

    One more very informative and professional interview with Batka.



    He covers Kursk issue.
    English subtitles.

    Pay attention to his description of border coverage.
    If someone is unaware of, he served in the Soviet Army in border troops, so he considers himself as "pohranichnyk".
    He really knows what he is talking about - and - how surprisingly - what he describes is perfectly what we saw in Kursk.
    Who would guess ... Twisted Evil

    Arrow wrote:How many more of these S 300 systems can Ukraine have, every now and then they destroy some S 300 after two years of war. The number of launchers was probably much greater than officially reported.

    They used to have about 200 systems. Plus Slovakian. Plus some from the US, bought for evaluation back in the 90s.


    Last edited by ALAMO on Mon Aug 19, 2024 3:53 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  flamming_python Mon Aug 19, 2024 3:47 pm

    caveat emptor wrote:Many units were overrun in the first two days of the attack. I would not expect conscripts or border guards to fare well against mechanized units. Most likely, conscript units are stripped of some officers, as well, who are taking part in the active fighting in other areas. 
    As I said, I doubt the numbers in the article, but also Russian MoD should come out with the real number. 
    As for Ukrainians, they were coming up with some crazy numbers of over 1000 POWs.
    As for what's strange and what's not, observing this war for so long, nothing is that strange anymore.

    Overrun with propaganda more like. Only units which were overrun were border guards because the enemy force was overwhelming in numbers.
    This is exactly why you don't have your motor-rifles and whoever else right on the border, and Russia didn't.

    There is no such thing as a 'conscript unit' either. Every single military unit in Russia is either fully-manned with contract soldiers, or partially manned with conscripts/partially manned with contract soldiers. Whereby in the 2nd instance the contract soldiers will fill the more technical roles and NCO roles, but not only.
    And if officers were commandeered to other units engaged in the SVO; which is entirely possible especially if they volunteered for such - then their positions in those units would be replaced with other officers from elsewhere, while in the interim being covered for by existing officers in that unit.

    I can accept that these partially-conscript manned units were green, given that as a cohesive unit they wouldn't have taken part in the SVO prior, and in some cases may have performed poorly - but that's not the same as being overrun, and a lot more evidence has to be given before any claim of a hundred or several hundred POWs can be seriously considered. Especially when it's coming from the Ukrainians, who after the first couple of weeks of the war were already claiming that they killed 10,000 Russian troops and destroyed 100 Russian aircraft.


    Last edited by flamming_python on Mon Aug 19, 2024 3:51 pm; edited 2 times in total

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    Post  caveat emptor Mon Aug 19, 2024 3:48 pm

    Arrow wrote:How many more of these S 300 systems can Ukraine have, every now and then they destroy some S 300 after two years of war. The number of launchers was probably much greater than officially reported.

    It's not excluded that Greeks sent Cyprian systems, as well. Actually, those would be most modern Ukrainians would have, if that was the case. Also, Bulgarians should have some.

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    Post  flamming_python Mon Aug 19, 2024 3:50 pm

    caveat emptor wrote:It's not excluded that Greeks sent Cyprian systems, as well. Actually, those would be most modern Ukrainians would have, if that was the case. Also, Bulgarians should have some.

    If they're shipping their F-16s to the Ukraine, don't see why they would have a problem sending S-300 systems too.

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    Post  caveat emptor Mon Aug 19, 2024 3:52 pm

    flamming_python wrote:

    Overrun with propaganda more like. ... Especially when it's coming from the Ukrainians, who after the first couple of weeks of the war were already claiming that they killed 10,000 Russian troops and destroyed 100 Russian aircraft.

    As i said, MoD should announce numbers and end all speculations.
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    Post  flamming_python Mon Aug 19, 2024 4:07 pm

    caveat wrote:
    As i said, MoD should announce numbers and end all speculations.

    MoD is not going to announce jack. If you want to run with Ukro numbers be my guest

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    Post  ucmvulcan Mon Aug 19, 2024 4:16 pm

    caveat emptor wrote:

    As i said, MoD should announce numbers and end all speculations.

    what's in it for MoD? They tell the truth and its only like 60 thousand and they get accused of lying. They tell the truth and its 100 or 200 thousand like some of you assholes who will remain nameless want? Its a cause celebree in the west. Keep it a secret. Keep the whole thing a secret. The west and Ukraine already does things based on believing their own lies. West says Russia out of missiles by the end of March (2022) hit Kiev hard in April 2022. West says Russia out of tanks? Parade t-72 and newer variants. Russia can't supply winter clothing to its troops? Take pics from the front of troops in winter gear. Troops using mosin nagants? Take pics of troops with latest model kalashnikovs. They say they shot down more rockets than you launched? Show pics of the burned out targets that "intercepted" your rockets. In no way do you risk opsec. No pics of deployments. No current footage by RT of the front. They love murdering journalists, don't give them that chance.

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    Post  caveat emptor Mon Aug 19, 2024 4:23 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    MoD is not going to announce jack. If you want to run with Ukro numbers be my guest

    It's not a problem what i will be "running with". Question is what Russian population, or at least part of it, will go with, as Russian MoD says zilch.
    You're a self proclaimed communist. I don't think i have to tell you how seriously Soviet Union took propaganda war and informational hygiene during WW2.
    When we are at Russian MoD and propaganda, interesting story is that Andrei Ilnitsky, that was in charge of informational work in MoD, was fired recently. His previous experience was as a manager in Khodorkovsky organization Open Russia from 2003-06., meaning during Yukos affair. How was this subversive element allowed to be employed there is a big question and another in the long string of pearls?
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    Post  caveat emptor Mon Aug 19, 2024 4:25 pm

    ucmvulcan wrote:

    what's in it for MoD? They tell the truth and its only like 60 thousand and they get accused of lying.  They tell the truth and its 100 or 200 thousand like some of you assholes who will remain nameless want? Its a cause celebree in the west.  Keep it a secret.  Keep the whole thing a secret.  The west and Ukraine already does things based on believing their own lies.  West says Russia out of missiles by the end of March (2022) hit Kiev hard in April 2022.  West says Russia out of tanks? Parade t-72 and newer variants.  Russia can't supply winter clothing to its troops? Take pics from the front of troops in winter gear.  Troops using mosin nagants? Take pics of troops with latest model kalashnikovs.   They say they shot down more rockets than you launched? Show pics of the burned out targets that "intercepted" your rockets. In no way do you risk opsec.  No pics of deployments.  No current footage by RT of the front.  They love murdering journalists, don't give them that chance.  

    I'm talking about number of POW conscripts, as this is very sensitive subject. I don't know if you're aware, but many people in Russia still remember issues around conscripts during Chechen wars.
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    Post  ucmvulcan Mon Aug 19, 2024 4:32 pm

    caveat emptor wrote:

    I'm talking about number of POW conscripts, as this is very sensitive subject. I don't know if you're aware, but many people in Russia still remember issues around conscripts during Chechen wars.

    Many in America still remember conscription from Vietnam.  Its why Biden's ploy to bring back and expand selective service caused outrage.  Want to deal with anger over conscription? Show victories.  Take care of the families of the dead and wounded, and win the fucking war.  You and I don't need to know because Ukraine and NATO sure as shit don't need to know.

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    Post  caveat emptor Mon Aug 19, 2024 4:36 pm

    ucmvulcan wrote:

    Many in America still remember conscription from Vietnam.  Its why Biden's ploy to bring back and expand selective service caused outrage.  Want to deal with anger over conscription? Show victories.  Take care of the families of the dead and wounded, and win the fucking war.  You and I don't need to know because Ukraine and NATO sure as shit don't need to know.

    I'm sure Ukrainians know how many they've captured. On the other hand, Russian general population has to know. When you don't provide credible sources, population will go next for what's available and that's usually enemy sources.

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