Russian special military operation in Ukraine #60

It seems like a ridiculously underwhelming pin-prick attack to risk a NATO-Russia war for. wrote:

Such attacks will not cause war with NATO, even Storm Shadow or JASSM fire, therefore the West will scale it if it wants and Russia will not respond. Only an ICBM and SLBM attack on Russian territory will cause war.

The Russian Aerospace Forces shot down two Ukrainian Su-27 fighter jets of the Ukrainian Air Force in one day. On the same day, air defense systems destroyed a Ukrainian MiG-29. This was reported by the Russian Defense Ministry.

The air defense systems also intercepted one US-made HIMARS rocket and four French-made Hammer guided bombs. 55 enemy drones were also shot down - 22 of them were destroyed outside the special military operation zone.

Earlier, the Russian Defense Ministry reported the destruction of 29 enemy drones over Russian territory. Fifteen of them were hit in the Bryansk region, five in the Kursk region. Four were shot down in the Smolensk region, two in the Oryol region. Another three were destroyed in the Belgorod, Kaluga and Rostov regions.

https://tvzvezda-ru.translate.goog/news/2024915126-J8n5Z.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB&_x_tr_pto=nui

The Russian MoD reporting 2515 Ukrainian casualties over the past 24 hours including;

During the day, the losses of the Armed Forces amounted to more than 300 soldiers and 22 armored vehicles, including three tanks, four armored personnel carriers and 15 armored combat vehicles, as well as an artillery piece and 8 vehicles. Seven servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine surrendered.

In total, during the fighting in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost more than 13,400 troops, 113 tanks, 44 infantry fighting vehicles, 91 armored personnel carriers, 718 armored combat vehicles, 431 vehicles, 96 artillery pieces, 26 multiple rocket launchers, including seven HIMARS and five MLRS manufactured by the United States, 8 launchers installations of anti-aircraft missile systems, two transport-loading vehicles, 26 electronic warfare stations, 7 counter-battery radars, two air defense radars, 13 units of engineering equipment, of which seven engineering barrier vehicles and one UR-77 mine clearance unit.

Russian engineers will "zero out" the effectiveness of HIMARS, by Evgeniy Pozdnyakov for VZGLYAD. 09.15.2024.

Russia has received the warhead of the American-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system. Experts have already begun to study it, which could potentially significantly reduce the effectiveness of its use by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

This event could be another blow to Ukraine's high-precision munitions, which have suffered serious reputational losses over the past year. How exactly can domestic experts improve the effectiveness of countering HIMARS missiles?

Russian specialists have begun studying the warhead of the HIMARS missile. According to a RIA Novosti source , it is where the technical processes responsible for the operation of the entire munition take place. The engineers have valuable microcircuits and stabilizers at their disposal.

The components are currently being extracted. Once the preparatory stage is complete, experts will begin a thorough analysis of the data obtained. HIMARS is a multiple launch rocket system. It was developed by the American companies BAE Systems and Lockheed Martin between 1996 and 2000.

However, mass production began only in 2003. The weapon is based on the three-axle FMTV wheeled chassis and can carry six rockets or one ATACMS operational-tactical ballistic missile; the effective firing range for certain types of ammunition is 80 km.

The analysis of the HIMARS warhead will only exacerbate the problems Ukraine faces with its use of precision weapons. In May, The Washington Post reported that Russia was actively improving its electronic warfare (EW) systems. Built around potential targets for Ukrainian strikes, they create dangerous interference that disables Western munitions.

The main "victim" of the modernization of electronic warfare systems was the 155-mm guided artillery shell Excalibur. Washington began delivering it to Ukraine in the spring of 2022. The Pentagon spent $92 million on purchasing the model, which allowed the enemy to obtain more than 800 copies of this munition.

Even then, Russian experts were talking about the high power of the projectile. Many of them agreed that it would be impossible to combat the projectiles themselves using air defense systems, so it was proposed to intensify strikes on the installations from which the ammunition was launched.

Indeed, according to Ukrainian military reports, in 2022 Excalibur proved itself to be an extremely accurate projectile. However, by January 2023, the percentage of confirmed successful strikes with it had dropped to 55, and by August – to six. Problems are also observed with JDAM missiles and other devices operating with the help of a GPS navigator.

"HIMARS systems have always been distinguished by their high accuracy. Their coefficient of probability of deviation (CVO) was only one meter. Such indicators were achieved due to two components. The first is a high-quality GPS navigator installed in the warhead of the missile. The second is aerodynamic rudders used to correct the flight of the munition," says Alexey Anpilogov, President of the Foundation for the Support of Scientific Research and Development of Civil Initiatives "Osnovanie".

"We had not been able to study these components in detail before. The problem was that after hitting the target, the missile was destroyed. We were unable to get a detailed picture of the HIMARS operation from the debris. At this point, Russia has probably found a relatively intact projectile," he said.

"Perhaps the missile accidentally hit soft ground or the contact fuse simply failed to work. This event is extremely noteworthy, since now we have the opportunity to learn the radio frequencies of the munition and the principle of their change. In addition, our engineers will be able to "fish out" information about the HIMARS calculation of the munition's flight trajectory," the expert emphasizes.

“In this way, a complete picture of the rocket’s ‘life activity’ is collected.

Previously, a similar situation occurred with the 155-mm Excalibur shells, on which the Ukrainian Armed Forces also relied heavily. Having obtained an untouched copy of this model, we were able to understand the principles of its operation and significantly adjust the principles of counteracting it,” the source believes.

"Even Western observers acknowledged that after this, the effectiveness of Excalibur dropped from 70% to practically one. That is, high-precision weapons turned into ordinary 155-mm shells, the production of which, however, cost millions of dollars. Accordingly, their further use became simply unprofitable," he adds.

"It is quite possible that HIMARS will suffer a similar fate. In addition, what happened should be considered from the point of view of the confrontation between domestic and Western schools of military engineering. It is always useful and interesting to learn about the enemy's experience. We receive data not just about a specific missile, but about the thought process of foreign designers," the expert reasons.

"By disassembling the projectile and inspecting it completely, the Russian army gets the opportunity to introduce some innovations into its own future projects. This is a common practice that began during the Cold War. Having learned about a successful find by American engineers, we often tried to recreate it and then improve it," says Anpilogov.

The Russian military has long been working against HIMARS strikes, recalls Aitech Bizhev, former deputy commander-in-chief of the Russian Air Force for the unified air defense system of the CIS member states, a retired lieutenant general. “Our air defense systems have learned to give them a worthy rebuff in field conditions,” he says.

“That is, over these two years we have already learned quite fully the specifics of its work, including the methods of operation of the guidance programs. Thus, one should not expect a radical change in the situation, thanks to the received warhead of the missile. However, it will still be possible to increase the effectiveness of counteraction to these munitions," he emphasizes.

"This will happen by activating the existing electronic suppression systems. By disassembling and studying the components we have, engineers will be able to accurately understand the specific radio frequencies of HIMARS missiles. In the future, we will also be able to make close copies of the shells for field testing," he believes.

"Then, after a series of test launches, we will have precise data on what frequencies the existing EW systems should be tuned to. The corresponding parameters will be transmitted to the front, where the process of suppressing ammunition within the current conflict will begin. Theoretically, this will significantly reduce the effectiveness of HIMARS and make the process of countering them cheaper," Bizhev concluded.

https://vz.ru/politics/2024/9/15/1287317.html

But I pointed out the reason why Finland is doing this. It is because the decision makers in Finland see Russia as weak and unable or unwilling to retaliate.

But hang on... Finland attacking Russia because it thinks it is weak and wont defend itself.... isn't that like Russia attacking Ukraine because Ukraine is weak and can't defend itself?

But Russian actions are bad and Finlands actions are normal and acceptable... and of course Russia attacked the Ukraine to defend the Ukrainian people Kiev was designating as being Russian and murdering... they tried everything they could before they started using force.

Finland on the other hand is clearly being used by the other HATO countries to put its hands into the Bears cage to poke it... how did that work out for Georgia in 2008?

And I'm afraid that Finland is correct in it conclusion.

So it is OK to attack the weak... and you respect your country for attacking a country you don't think will fight back now you are in HATO.

That is good to know... maybe they will put that on the plaques and statues they build when they occupy your country again....  

Russia's leadership and government are restrained to an extreme. So restrained that it has become a weakness instead of a strength.

So lets say you and the US gets their wish and Putin is overthrown and a new guy gets into power because Putin is so damn weak the Russian public can't take it any more.... are they going to vote in a Navalny type pro US arse hole, or are they going to vote in a hardliner who promises tough responses...

Couple of questions for you. First how is he going to treat Finland when he gets into power knowing what Finland has been doing.

Second why do you think a hardliner that over reacts and perhaps even wants WWIII in power in Russia is better for HATO or Finland or the rest of the world?

Are you fucking stupid?

Clearly no one discusses anything in Finland, you just do as you are told and don't think of questioning your government... so clearly the world wont miss a few sheep if they get sent to the slaughterhouse.

It would be all great if Russia's hostile neighbors would react to Russia's non-retaliation policies in the same manner. But they are not.

But most are, they are funding Ukraine, they are supplying mercenaries, they are condemning Russia internationally and they support the sanctions.

They interpret it as weakness and continue to escalate.

You can cry about Putins weakness all you like but when exactly has he folded and said that the west can do as they please like western politicians do to the US every single day of the week?

Just a few years ago it would have been unthinkable for Finland to carry out military strikes against Russia. But here we are.

When they recover those drones they will be able to analyse the navigation systems and work out where they flew and where they were launched from and that will be used in their mission planning for retaliation.

Currently, right now Finland is already paying with an economic recession for its hostile policy towards Russia. If they want to keep shooting themselves in the dick, well, Finland will probably cease to exist as a state in the coming decades.

Russia is freeing Ukrainians from the Kiev regime, but a war with Finland would be a war of defense for Russia... there is no territory they need to capture, no people to rescue from an evil government gone wrong... US and Finnish military bases can just be hit repeatedly and then population centres and ports can be smashed till the country is no longer a threat.

But I think Finland is safe as long as Putin is in charge in Russia. What comes after him is another thing.

The irony is that he just threatened nuclear war with the west if Kiev starts using long range western weapons against Russia because to use those long range weapons against targets deep inside Russia Kiev would need the assistance and cooperation of HATO advisors who would only help with the express permission of their respective HATO governments... this would change the war to a war against HATO.

If Finland is launching attack and suicide drones against Russian territory including strategic targets like Murmansk ports then that would also be a similar problem for Russia and the solution would be similar... up to and including the use of nuclear weapons on Finland.

2. Your underestimation of Putin makes you almost indistinguishable from your government. You are literally trying to blame Putin for not starting a nuclear war.

Fortunately the rest of the west are fucking stupid too and to this day think Putin is an idiot that is just getting lucky and every time he rips them a new one...

It is funny how stupid the west are in regard to Putin and they still don't get it.... starting WWIII is not in Russian interests, but handing him an excuse to escalate any way he likes by getting involved in this conflict is not handing a child a loaded gun... it is handing a trained sniper a rifle and ammo and telling him his mother is a whore.

If you take all the delivries and divide by 30 months you end with something like 10 tanks, 10 SPG, 50 IFV, 1 fighter jet, 1 AD system, 500k shells on average per month. You don't win a war with such low figures.

If you took the real value of weapons sent to Kiev it would likely be four or five times more than what the Soviets spent on weapons to the Vietnamese... 30 Abrams tanks that cost more than 2,000 T-54s... an F-16 that costs more than all the SA-2 batteries they sent in 10 years... and then there is all the cash that seems to have been used up already.... more than was spent on the Marshall plan after WWII to fix all of Europe... and the Ukraine is still broken.

Russia can just finish off the electrical grid of the Ukraine and the flood of 5-10 million people into Europe is going to be a real problem for Europe...

Winter is coming.

The average delivries are pathetic compare to what soviet and chinese sent to Vietnames (more Mig were sent than nato sent tanks to Ukraine...).

In numbers, yes... in value... no.

That's why in my opinion NATO's goal is only to keep the war going but they have no real intentions behind other than burn their cash in their defence companies to flood pockets of their richest people.

And destroy industry in Europe by making energy costs higher, and of course to get all those pesky former Warsaw Pact countries to get rid of their enormous stocks of cheap Soviet era stuff and replace it with modern HATO kit that is vastly more expensive and often no more effective in real combat.

Warehouse stocks depleted and needing to be restocked with new build stuff from the only left factories working.... American ones.

Putin is seen in the West as weak and someone who can be pushed further. Whether he actually he is weak or isn't. You don't like that fact, but it is what it is.

The fact that the west is stupid and has underestimated him since he took office 24 years ago, there is still no respect for what he has achieved and the future path he has put his country on is astounding. Even super optimistic me would never have guessed this sort of result.

In the early 2000s I was chatting online with American teenagers about how the Russian weapon makers will all collapse and die and that by 2015 Russia will be operating third hand F-16s while Europe will be flying F-35 super fighters...

So you recon Putin would be considered A REAL MAN if he unleashes nuclear annihilation because a couple of drones were launched from Finland with zero impact? Laughing

The line is drawn in the sand and the west took notice. Lets see if they change their minds and call Putin's bluff.

Even if they do call his bluff.... and it isn't a bluff... there wont be nukes, but there will be actions that seriously damage the west... I suspect finishing off Ukraines electrical grid and their fresh water supply and heating infrastucture that keeps their population alive during Winter to force a mass exodus of civilians rushing to Europe to survive this winter... and probably cut off gas and oil supplies to Europe at the same time... there are no long term contracts any more so that should be easy...

If they did fly over Finland and Finland had allowed it then Russia should strike at Finland for sure. Not nuclear but destroy Finland airports and airforce bases. If they claim they didn't, then Russia should give final warning to force Finland hands to act against Ukraine or face punishment.

The remains of the drones will contain parts of the navigation systems which will tell them where they flew and where they were launched from...

Nothing was launched from Finland. End off with this whole non-story

There will be American bases there by now.... who knows what they might have launched.... told the locals they are weather balloons...

An attack by a drone on an SSBN base is not yet a nuclear first strike, which is carried out by ballistic missiles, or possibly cruise missiles, but it is risky. So Russia's reaction to this would not be too big.

Any attack on SSBNs would be potentially an attempted decapitation strike that would precede a nuclear strike... the response should be a full nuclear strike against the perpetrators.

Drones that were downed around Murmansk are the Лютый type. Ukrainians claim 1000km range, while closest possible distance to Murmansk from Ukr border is around 1900km. There were speculations before that some were launched from Estonia and that they fly over Finland in order not to get discovered by Russian PVO.

A German investigation is centering about a couple of Ukrainians who hired a Yacht and were sailing in the arctic ocean that might have launched the drones while doing a bit of diving at the time...

Such attacks will not cause war with NATO, even Storm Shadow or JASSM fire, therefore the West will scale it if it wants and Russia will not respond. Only an ICBM and SLBM attack on Russian territory will cause war.

A conventional missile strike that destroys aircraft and infrastructure in Finland in response might be cause for war from their perspective...

Just because Ukrainian drones are pin prick attacks does not mean Russia should respond with useless attacks.

That would be weak and Russia should not be weak towards HATO...    

I am all for showing NATO that they can't be taking pot shots at Russia from the territories of their own countries without fear of reprisals, but I am also against the idea of global nuclear incineration. Surely Russia has the ability for a creative a measured response against Norway and Finland.

Fully agree and I would say hitting government buildings in Finland and killing these idiot politicians who gave up Finlands neutrality and put their entire population at risk would be a good response... not weak at all... but also no WWIII yet.

A few drone dropping thermite on their forests would be a good alternative too of course... they are so proud of their 1.350km long border with Russia.... how are they are protecting it...

If not a demonstrative nuke on TV , then a non- lethal strike in international waters or empty space on enemy soil .

Which will prove to the neocon hawks in the west that Putin really is weak... he is afraid to kill people like we do...

Biden, Starmer Fail to Agree on Ukraine’s Long-Range Strikes Against Russia, by Oleg Burunov for Sputnikglobe.com. 09. 15.2024.

Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier warned that NATO's approval of the use of long-range missiles by Ukraine would mean the bloc, the US and European countries NATO countries, the United States and European countries, are at war with Russia.

It seems US President Joe Biden and British PM Keir Starmer have delayed a decision to allow Ukraine to conduct deep strikes into Russian territory with long-range Western-supplied missiles, a plea Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly floated.

Referring to his "productive" talks with Biden in Washington, Starmer said it "wasn't a meeting about a particular capability" pertaining to the UK-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

He also added that he and Biden would now discuss the plan at the UN General Assembly in New York the week after next "with a wider group of individuals."

The White House had earlier played down the chances of a decision in favor of the Kiev regime, with National Security Council spokesman John Kirby telling reporters that he wouldn't expect “any major announcement in that regard coming out of the discussions, certainly not from our [US] side.”

Zelensky in turn accused the West of being "afraid" to even help Ukraine shoot down incoming missiles as it has done with Israel.

The Biden-Starmer talks came after Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Western countries not to let Ukraine fire long-range missiles at Russia. Putin stressed that such a move would mean NATO, the US and European countries’ "direct participation" in the Ukraine conflict.

The direct involvement of the West in the conflict changes its nature, and Moscow will be forced to make decisions based on the threats thus created for it, according to the Russian president.

The Times has meanwhile cited an unnamed British defence source as saying that although the Storm Shadow missiles can be effectively "threaded through the eye of a needle" with the help of GPS and terrain mapping data, they "probably wouldn’t survive in the contested, electronically jammed environment" that the Russian forces possess.

"Russian electronic warfare has rendered GPS useless. They jam it," the source said. A Storm Shadow has a maximum range of 250 km (155 miles) and is worth a whopping $1 million a piece.

https://sputnikglobe.com/20240915/biden-starmer-fail-to-agree-on-ukraines-long-range-strikes-against-russia--1120160476.html

caveat emptor wrote:....
For the sake of the argument, Serbia still has over 300 tanks in active service and reserves and Vucic is a piece of shit. Nothing would surprise me, when it comes to him.

Riiiiight....

When fanatical Brussels loving pride flag-waiving Belgrade ultra liberals start being upset about Serbia possibly helping Ukraine (like they have been for a while now) you know someone is full of shit