The whole of Ukraine will crumble: the loss of one city will kill the West's plan for victory, by Kirill Strelnikov for RiaNovosti. 10.20.2024.
Our opponents have never lacked large-scale, convincing, well-calculated and superbly substantiated plans, each of which was capable of bringing Russia to its knees and forcing it to do something, several times in a row. Such plans include the grandiose counteroffensive of 2023, the adventure in the Kursk region, and a whole series of magical "betrayal victories." Yes, they ended in failure, but now the West has another plan that finally "should change everything."
However, the fate of what may be the last super-plan of our opponents (and probably the entire SVO) depends on one small town 60 kilometers from Donetsk.
Biden's caution, refusing to sharply increase military supplies, and the real prospect of a Trump presidency, who has threatened to turn off the tap to Ukraine altogether, have forced Zelensky's gang and his masters to desperately search for "option B".
This option was first voiced in detail by the so-called Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on January 14 this year in the report "Ukraine's Long-Term Path to Success: Building a Self-Sufficient Defense Industrial Base with US and EU Support ." According to the report, "Ukraine's efforts to create a military-industrial complex will help not only it, but also NATO countries ," meaning that the Europeans can now stop worrying about the stalled militarization of their economy and can simply buy their way out.
Apparently, the bait was swallowed, and recently the European Union announced a new approach to supporting Ukraine - "Investments instead of weapons", for which a special fund was quickly created, and money was urgently collected for the Ukrainian military-industrial complex (they have found about a billion so far). In their joy, the Europeans admitted that they did not know what to do: the powerful European military-industrial complex had made a mistake, and the loud figures on the supply of shells and everything else to Ukraine were shamefully covered with a napkin. A few days ago, The Washington Post quoted another European diplomat, who, on condition of anonymity, said: "There is an understanding that Europe is not able to produce the weapons that Ukraine needs, and the easiest way for Ukrainians is to make them themselves. If Ukrainians have materials and money, they can do it themselves much faster."
According to Western media, "in the near future, the flow of money into Ukraine's defense industry may increase dramatically." Anticipating profit, Zelensky switched on the "New Vasyuki" mode and announced that "the Ukrainian defense industry is now on the path to leadership, at least in Europe" - and soon Ukroboronprom will be able to produce weapons worth as much as $20 billion a year, including for export.
Enchanted by the bright prospects and promises, Western military manufacturers rushed to sign agreements on joint production in Ukraine. For example, at the recent international defence industry forum in Kiev, 20 agreements and memorandums were signed on the production of drones, repair of military equipment, joint production of armored vehicles and ammunition, technology exchange and supply of components.
It got to the point that the Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine, Alexander Kamyshin, who had become extremely emboldened, declared that “my goal is to make Ukraine the arsenal of the free world.”
But behind the clinking of glasses, the Kiev gang and its friends forgot two things: first, military production makes no sense if there is no metal for it, mainly steel; second, Russian troops are standing on the threshold of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk in Russian), the quick and inevitable capture of which will cover all these imaginary mountains of weapons and money with a copper basin.
Pokrovsk itself is a very important logistics hub, the capture of which will sharply worsen the situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces along the entire eastern front. But no less, and perhaps more important, is the importance of Pokrovsk in the economy.
About 15 kilometers from this city is the Krasnoarmeyskaya-Zapadnaya No. 1 mine, the only enterprise in the not yet liberated territory of Ukraine that produces coking coal (reserves are over 200 million tons). Coking coal is a critical element for the production of cast iron and steel. According to the most optimistic estimates, the loss of Pokrovsk (and, accordingly, the mine) will reduce steel production in Ukraine by 80%, but in reality everything is much worse.
According to Stanislav Zinchenko, executive director of Ukrainian industrial consulting company GMK Center, "Kiev's loss of control over Krasnoarmeysk will lead to the complete collapse of the Ukrainian economy, since the city is a key source of coal for the country's steel and metallurgical industry," and "without steel mills, the Ukrainian economy will simply die."
This forecast is shared by experts from The Economist: "The Ukrainian steel industry is under threat of destruction due to the approach of the Russian Armed Forces to Pokrovsk." According to experts familiar with the situation, without coal from Pokrovsk, the five remaining coke plants in Ukraine will stop, and ensuring even the minimum load of Ukrainian metallurgical plants will become a serious problem: it will not be possible to compensate for the lost coal volumes at the expense of Europe - there is simply no such capacity there, and sea shipments will be golden, as a result of which "the economy of metallurgical plants will go into a knockout." Result: the loss of Pokrovsk risks becoming the final point in the history of independent metallurgy.
Yesterday, the head of the Pokrovsk administration, Sergei Dobryak, called on the remaining residents to evacuate immediately, adding that all city utilities were stopping their work in connection with the approach of Russian troops and that "heating the city during the winter period is no longer planned."
Right now our soldiers are completing the encirclement of Selidovo, and there are about ten kilometers left to Pokrovsk.
Let's wish our guys good luck: with the help of the "liberated" coal of Pokrovsk, millions of tons of steel for various military equipment will be produced in any case, but now the Russian flag will fly over it.
https://ria.ru/20241020/ukraina-1978916403.html
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