Russian special military operation in Ukraine #61

ALAMO wrote:....
A 50k NK special forces would be just enough to close a giant part of the border.
And those men are highly trained in both infiltration and anti-saboteur - they would hunt down ukro DRGs like on a fukin hunting season...
Those guys have been trained by a system at war for the last 70 years ...
Try to imagine that

Shit, now I want to see this

Sujoy wrote:Ukraine's balloon drones

https://x.com/DanielR33187703/status/1848073452462440867

Doesn't sound like it can be used for anything other than terrorizing civilian homes
Which I guess is the point

more like 6-700 due to routine BDA overcounting.

The MoD is undercounting regularly.

So what's the situation at the front?

The situation in the Chasiv Jar and Siversk areas look promising.

The US mass perception of its military adventures is terminal delusion. They won WWII, only left Vietnam because of the US media, etc. ad nauseam. Now their proxy is losing and
they are making up cope-tard stories about how the Russians had no real contribution to the loss. These same clowns then expect to roll over Russia without any effort in any potential
war with it. This appears to be the basis of the neocon chutzpah. They even announce near term war on China and expect to walk over the dead corpse of Russia any day now.

The characterization "lunatics running the asylum" is scientifically accurate.

Arkanghelsk wrote:https://i.servimg.com/u/f83/20/39/25/54/img_6910.jpg

The figure of 848193 KIA + WIA is way too low. The total must exceed 1.5 million since the KIA are closer to 500,000.

kvs wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:https://i.servimg.com/u/f83/20/39/25/54/img_6910.jpg

The figure of 848193 KIA + WIA is way too low.   The total must exceed 1.5 million since the KIA are closer to 500,000.  

Those numbers are based on the accumulated daily MoD briefings. The casualties are based on front lines estimates and do not include those hit further back by rockets and aviation assets. Some of the other numbers are also misread... people

NOTE: Included the two quotes as they are relevant to my post.

Balloons with GPS , dropping munitions ? Ok , they can accurately miss their targets ! Nukes for a terrorist comedian cosmopolitan jet setter NATO fanboy , engaged in civil war ? No , not a good idea , he may drop the baby and retreat to his villa in Italy . N. Korean troops in support roles ? Good ! Why not Iranian IRGC troops also ? Heard Russian Ships & advisers in Iran for the show against Israel . So why not ? The start of a beautiful relationship .

flamming_python wrote: Doesn't sound like it can be used for anything other than terrorizing civilian homes
Which I guess is the point

These drones can do some very rough aiming if they have weather data for the altitude at which it will fly.  Basically you launch and select a flight altitude based on winds and the drone can climb higher mid route to change course if you need.  I suspect it would need a  dense enough target map to make every flight a winner. Other than that they'll be used as decoys when IIR guided SAM is missing.

kvs wrote:The figure of 848193 KIA + WIA is way too low.   The total must exceed 1.5 million since the KIA are closer to 500,000.  

Not necessarily. I've seen it mentioned that when it comes to serious injuries that disable fighters or disqualify them from service, the Russian figure is a fraction for what it is for Russian KIA. While of course the total Russian wounded is much larger than Russian killed; the majority of those wounded recover and are fit for duty again.

So I presume the same is true of the Ukrainian army. If they have 500k KIA, then the amount put of our action by their injuries for good might be around 50-100k, with maybe another 200-300k currently recovering but that will eventually be back in action. Without knowing the methodology used it's hard to judge how the figure was arrived at.

franco wrote:
Those numbers are based on the accumulated daily MoD briefings. The casualties are based on front lines estimates and do not include those hit further back by rockets and aviation assets. Some of the other numbers are also misread... people

The MOD is lowballing Ukr losses.   If we take these numbers at face value then the Ukr KIA are somewhere between 250,000 and 300,000.   That would imply a ratio of around
5:1 for Ukr vs Russian losses.   This is very generous.

Thank you for editing your post before I had time to give you a temporary ban for posting a conversation... GarryB

I believe Putin, sometime this year, said that the unrecoverable loss ratio for manpower was in excess of 5:1. Would assume unrecoverable would be dead and those too wounded to return to duty.

Sujoy wrote:These drones can do some very rough aiming if they have weather data for the altitude at which it will fly.  Basically you launch and select a flight altitude based on winds and the drone can climb higher mid route to change course if you need.  I suspect it would need a  dense enough target map to make every flight a winner. Other than that they'll be used as decoys when IIR guided SAM is missing.

Which makes it useless for engaging enemy forces; rough aiming + low payload. And you will have to pick stationary targets too, as the drone will be too slow to keep up with anything else. So the obvious use is against towns or cities.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/111221
The DPRK flag is hoisted on a spoil heap near the recently liberated Tsukurino on the Pokrovsky Front.

Our fighters caused hysteria of the enemy with their actions.

I like how Russia trolls everyone

The true reason why the Nano-Fuhrer is always so grumpy...

Pedal to the metal! Squeeze their bollocks until they pop like blisters...

They certainly seem very keen on severing that road to the south... Do they intend this to be the point where they cross the Oskol in force? Cross here and drive north up the road on the west bank into Kupyansk (its likely to not be fortified as Ukie earthworks will be to the east)? That might explain why the Kiev regime is starting to pull people from Kupyansk, they sense blood in the wind and recognise that it is theirs...

flamming_python wrote:

kvs wrote:The figure of 848193 KIA + WIA is way too low.   The total must exceed 1.5 million since the KIA are closer to 500,000.  

Not necessarily. I've seen it mentioned that when it comes to serious injuries that disable fighters or disqualify them from service, the Russian figure is a fraction for what it is for Russian KIA. While of course the total Russian wounded is much larger than Russian killed; the majority of those wounded recover and are fit for duty again.

So I presume the same is true of the Ukrainian army. If they have 500k KIA, then the amount put of our action by their injuries for good might be around 50-100k, with maybe another 200-300k currently recovering but that will eventually be back in action. Without knowing the methodology used it's hard to judge how the figure was arrived at.

Yeah the Russian side based on different sources has anywhere from 60-80K KIA and adding LDNR you get to 110-120k KIA based on mediazona and even Putin and the MOD admissions of 1 to 5 RU to UKR losses, but it’s a bit misleading because they aren’t including irrecoverable Ukrainian losses which really pushes it to 1 to 10

Russia has superior battlefield medicine, medevac, helicopters that can get soldiers to hospitals quickly and better logistics - casevac ability with overall more vehicles and generally more competence than Ukraine by fact of resources and economy

This means they stick to the conventional wisdom of 1 KIA for 3 WIA - taking our BBC numbers above we extrapolate to 360k WIA- of this number it’s generally accepted that 25-30% are irrecoverable losses , so 80-100k is a figure in line with both RU+LDNR heavy wounded , the difference is sanitary losses , so 260k is also a number in line with figures analysts were using a couple of months ago - this number is the number of sanitary losses or light injuries by Soviet definition - and this figure is a bit tricky as it could be a third of the true number , based on the fact that you could double or even triple count light injuries and these guys usually get put back into service

Now for Ukraine - using the MOD and Putins numbers from few months ago , are at 600k KIA , with 1.8 million wounded, and that number being 50/50 sanitary to irrecoverable, making Ukraines total losses of dead and maimed 1.5 million and the difference being those who lived to tell the tale and don’t get rotated out and probably end up in the KIA and irrecoverable number only a few weeks or months later

So Russian total losses of KIA and irrecoverable are 120k + 80 k for 200k , and Ukrainian are at about 1.5 million , that gives a respectable 1 to 7.5 RU to Ukrop losses

And that fits in with the US numbers of 400-500k Russian losses (they use sanitary losses as the baseline for their estimates)

nomadski wrote:


Balloons with GPS , dropping munitions ? Ok , they can accurately miss their targets ! Nukes for a terrorist comedian cosmopolitan jet setter NATO fanboy , engaged in civil war ? No , not a good idea , he may drop the baby and retreat to his villa in Italy . N. Korean troops in support roles ? Good ! Why not Iranian IRGC troops also ? Heard Russian Ships & advisers in Iran for the show against Israel . So why not ? The start of a beautiful relationship .

Awwww, ain't that cute, the Ukronazis have gotten fugo bombs. Wonder if the Japanese helped them build them. I hope the Russians help Kim Jong Un perfect his garbage balloons.

A live look at the mighty Ukrainian Lolwaffe

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTAuT6ZMZXM