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Log inMir wrote:So you guys expect Russia to go full nuclear because ONE ATCMS got through
Evidently only enough of one to start a small fire.
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Russian special military operation in Ukraine #62
The-thing-next-door- Posts : 1393
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- Post n°601
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #62
The-thing-next-door Wed Nov 20, 2024 1:12 am
Evidently only enough of one to start a small fire.
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caveat emptor- Posts : 2024
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- Post n°602
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #62
caveat emptor Wed Nov 20, 2024 1:15 am
@Mir
Of course not. But, retaliating strictly in Ukraine will not make any difference, as no one in the west gives a shit about Ukrainians. Cutting underwater cables in scale would be a possible, good answer to this latest escalation. It has to be painful enough and clear enough that it was a planned sabotage and not just a random occurrence. And going directly against western countries.
Changing nuclear deterrence doctrine doesn't mean much in this context. Also, don't run your mouth unless you intend to back it up with action.
Of course not. But, retaliating strictly in Ukraine will not make any difference, as no one in the west gives a shit about Ukrainians. Cutting underwater cables in scale would be a possible, good answer to this latest escalation. It has to be painful enough and clear enough that it was a planned sabotage and not just a random occurrence. And going directly against western countries.
Changing nuclear deterrence doctrine doesn't mean much in this context. Also, don't run your mouth unless you intend to back it up with action.
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flamming_python- Posts : 9547
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- Post n°603
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #62
flamming_python Wed Nov 20, 2024 1:18 am
The-thing-next-door wrote:Evidently only enough of one to start a small fire.
If you believe the MOD. Wouldn't be the first time they downplayed damage from a missile or drone strike.
But as caveat emptor said, how many get through and what they strike is not really the point
The West 'walked back' its authorization only yesterday, claiming that it's only going to 'allow' strikes on North Korean forces and in the Kursk region. And the same night a Russian military target was attacked in the Bryansk region. And next time what's going to be attacked? It's clear they're creeping forward to see how far they push Russia's red lines, or alternatively, they really have figured that they don't exist and that all they need to do is escalate slowly, in order to avoid a military response.
Russia is not being given a choice. If nothing is done sooner or later you'll have Tomahawks brought in per Zelensky's 'victory plan' and all Russian territory and major cities can come under attack.
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@caveat emptor
Well cutting the cable is already doing much more damage than the single ATACMS hit.
I think they should actually pull the plugs on the two British carriers - they are so bad no-one will actually believe it's Putin's men who did it!
Well cutting the cable is already doing much more damage than the single ATACMS hit.
I think they should actually pull the plugs on the two British carriers - they are so bad no-one will actually believe it's Putin's men who did it!
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- Post n°605
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #62
The-thing-next-door Wed Nov 20, 2024 1:26 am
flamming_python wrote:
But as caveat emptor said, how many get through and what they strike is not really the point
.
Agreed, my intention was only to mock the anemic strike.
Because of the Russian rhetoric prior to the strike they now need to do something noticeable.
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- Post n°606
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #62
caveat emptor Wed Nov 20, 2024 1:31 am
Mir wrote:@caveat emptor
Well cutting the cable is already doing much more damage than the single ATACMS hit.
I think they should actually pull the plugs on the two British carriers - they are so bad no-one will actually believe it's Putin's men who did it!
Longer they wait, harder escalatory strikes will have to be in the future in order to re-establish deterrence equilibrium. This is also why retaliation has to be against western countries and not Ukraine.
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Arkanghelsk
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Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #62
Arkanghelsk Wed Nov 20, 2024 3:05 am
Russia will hit NATO conventionally like Iran hit Israel
Crossing the psychological barrier is important , NATO like Israel will not do anything except token response
It should be a big strike, flashy and visible , which will reset European calculations - and also rewrite the rules of the game in which NATO is allowed to hit Russia
Israel thought the rules of the game were the same until Iran reintroduced deterrence
A conventional hit on Polish runways, ammo dumps and Fuel sites will be perfect - let them know in advance the same way Iran did
So they can move personnel and equipment
Crossing the psychological barrier is important , NATO like Israel will not do anything except token response
It should be a big strike, flashy and visible , which will reset European calculations - and also rewrite the rules of the game in which NATO is allowed to hit Russia
Israel thought the rules of the game were the same until Iran reintroduced deterrence
A conventional hit on Polish runways, ammo dumps and Fuel sites will be perfect - let them know in advance the same way Iran did
So they can move personnel and equipment
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Isos- Posts : 11602
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They won't attack nato. They will wait Trump that will stop helping them and take Ukraine all.
It's not a 300km range missile that changes nothing.
It's not a 300km range missile that changes nothing.
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Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #62
flamming_python Wed Nov 20, 2024 3:50 am
Wait for Trump to do what?
This whole thing is in collusion with Trump for all anybody knows, to increase his bargaining power for when he assumes office
And the sort of hints that have been dropped at least in Trump's name about ending the conflict are just as unrealistic as Biden's plans to 'freeze' the conflict. As they amount to the same thing.
But most of all, Russia just doesn't have 2 months to wait when under attack.
This whole thing is in collusion with Trump for all anybody knows, to increase his bargaining power for when he assumes office
And the sort of hints that have been dropped at least in Trump's name about ending the conflict are just as unrealistic as Biden's plans to 'freeze' the conflict. As they amount to the same thing.
But most of all, Russia just doesn't have 2 months to wait when under attack.
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pavi- Posts : 69
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According to my understanding retaliatory measures will be covential hit inside Ukraine territory and probaply proxy actions somewhere. Using nukes for retalition could spin out of hand very easily. As Martyanov has pointed very often, there is no such a thing as "limited nuclear war".Mir wrote:So you guys expect Russia to go full nuclear because ONE ATCMS got through
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Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #62
flamming_python Wed Nov 20, 2024 3:58 am
As pointed out, the West could care less about the Ukraine and targeting anything there will neither create deterrence nor impress anyone.
And I don't see what actions Russia could take through some proxy forces that can match missiles being launched against its territory.
I mean I don't deny the preference for deniability or a masquerade. Dress up as Somali pirates if you have to. But to do any serious damage Russian units will have to be employed, not the Houthis or whoever.
And I don't see what actions Russia could take through some proxy forces that can match missiles being launched against its territory.
I mean I don't deny the preference for deniability or a masquerade. Dress up as Somali pirates if you have to. But to do any serious damage Russian units will have to be employed, not the Houthis or whoever.
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Russia will hit NATO conventionally like Iran hit Israel wrote:
Good joke 
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Going to the max in retaliation from the first attack is stupid. Juicy targets need to be reserved for future expenditure as part of the
escalation spiral. It's a type of negotiation process.
escalation spiral. It's a type of negotiation process.
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Arrow- Posts : 3490
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The comment from Runet is very true.
SNF is needed to deter a potential enemy, it works as long as the enemy is firmly convinced that we will use it. Now the potential enemy is becoming more convinced that we will never use it under any circumstances.
The point is that the West is less and less afraid, if at all, of Russian strategic nuclear weapons. In the West, the truly crazy in an act of desperation may try to launch larger and larger shelling of Russian territory in order to achieve a major propaganda victory, to divert attention from the defeat in Ukraine.
SNF is needed to deter a potential enemy, it works as long as the enemy is firmly convinced that we will use it. Now the potential enemy is becoming more convinced that we will never use it under any circumstances.
The point is that the West is less and less afraid, if at all, of Russian strategic nuclear weapons. In the West, the truly crazy in an act of desperation may try to launch larger and larger shelling of Russian territory in order to achieve a major propaganda victory, to divert attention from the defeat in Ukraine.
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- Post n°615
Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #62
Arkanghelsk Wed Nov 20, 2024 5:31 am
Arrow wrote:
That anyone would hit Israel with 200 ballistic missiles was considered a joke too
Until it wasn’t
And no Samson option got triggered, article V would go the same way
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That anyone would hit Israel with 200 ballistic missiles was considered a joke too wrote:
Russia won't even lift a finger towards NATO, let alone attack with 200 ballistic missiles.
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Mir wrote:@caveat emptor
Well cutting the cable is already doing much more damage than the single ATACMS hit.
I think they should actually pull the plugs on the two British carriers - they are so bad no-one will actually believe it's Putin's men who did it!
you know those two Aircraft Carriers have been suffering numerous problems since going into active service, including the type 26 frigates, by bolts being fixed with superglue , the carriers and frigates are built in Scotland, where the majority of Scots want Independence from the UK, and some media reports the issues are caused by sabotage by pro Independence nationalist, the wiring was pulled from a unfinished type 26 frigate after the contractors hadn't been paid
Russia has made a start by banning the sale of Uranium to America, it also needs to stop the sales of Titanium along with China, also Russia needs to start backing the Ruble with gold & oil , i believe that alone would cause a negative run on the Dow Jones
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Arrow wrote:
Russia won't even lift a finger towards NATO, let alone attack with 200 ballistic missiles.
quite simply supply America's enemies with weapon systems that can hurt America and help Strengthen Mexican & Cuban armed forces .... countries that can easily hit American soil if attacked
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If they use the Storm Shadow in Russia, they should also ban the sale of enriched uranium to Europe. Hard quotas should be set based on actual use for everyone else. No resale of enriched uranium. We will see how the French like that.Godric wrote:Russia has made a start by banning the sale of Uranium to America, it also needs to stop the sales of Titanium along with China, also Russia needs to start backing the Ruble with gold & oil , i believe that alone would cause a negative run on the Dow Jones
I would also enact an export ban on LNG from Russia to the West until they drop the sanctions on Arctic LNG 2. For whatever reason they seem to think Russia "needs" their funny fiat money. I would just flare the gas if it came to it and make the world's largest light show.
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Monstrous explosions in Sumy region: unique defense plant destroyed
Powerful explosion, secondary detonation and fire in the city of Shostka continue.
KP "Shostka state-owned plant "Impulse" - since 1848 a defense complex plant, ensuring the combat readiness of the armed forces and the uninterrupted operation of mining enterprises of strategic importance for the security of Ukraine. The unique enterprise specializes in fulfilling orders from the Ministry of Defense and is one of the few manufacturers of explosion initiation devices in the world: electric detonators, detonating cords, non-electric initiation devices, etc.
Considering that all minerals (ore, coal, crushed stone) are mined using explosions, the Impuls plant is the only one in Ukraine that manufactures a full range of industrial explosive charge initiation devices in a closed cycle, meeting the needs of the mining and coal industry, metallurgy, thermal power engineering and construction.
- RVvoenkor
Shostka Chemical Plant of Ukrainian SSR/ SVEMA (light sensitive materials & magnetic tapes), which also used to make a Photo & Motion Picture film.
Epic explosion near defense plant
in Sumy region
Local channels write about a powerful explosion and a huge column of fire near the state-owned plant "Impulse" in Shostka with subsequent secondary detonation. The glow illuminates the city for several hours.
The enterprise produces detonator caps, electric detonators, detonating cords, electric igniters, cartridges, ammunition for automatic and underbarrel grenade launchers, etc.
- RVvoenkor
Powerful explosion, secondary detonation and fire in the city of Shostka continue.KP "Shostka state-owned plant "Impulse" - since 1848 a defense complex plant, ensuring the combat readiness of the armed forces and the uninterrupted operation of mining enterprises of strategic importance for the security of Ukraine. The unique enterprise specializes in fulfilling orders from the Ministry of Defense and is one of the few manufacturers of explosion initiation devices in the world: electric detonators, detonating cords, non-electric initiation devices, etc. Considering that all minerals (ore, coal, crushed stone) are mined using explosions, the Impuls plant is the only one in Ukraine that manufactures a full range of industrial explosive charge initiation devices in a closed cycle, meeting the needs of the mining and coal industry, metallurgy, thermal power engineering and construction. - RVvoenkor
Shostka Chemical Plant of Ukrainian SSR/ SVEMA (light sensitive materials & magnetic tapes), which also used to make a Photo & Motion Picture film.
Epic explosion near defense plant
in Sumy region
Local channels write about a powerful explosion and a huge column of fire near the state-owned plant "Impulse" in Shostka with subsequent secondary detonation. The glow illuminates the city for several hours.The enterprise produces detonator caps, electric detonators, detonating cords, electric igniters, cartridges, ammunition for automatic and underbarrel grenade launchers, etc.- RVvoenkor
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This is the new warfare. The warfare that many militaries who are not currently directly and personally involved in are going to have difficulties coming to terms with and revamping their entire modus operandii
Last edited by JohninMK on Wed Nov 20, 2024 7:48 am; edited 1 time in total
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Ukrainian Armed Forces • ATACMS and M270 MLRS
According to various sources, the Ukrainian Armed Forces currently have about 50 MGM-140A ATACMS Block I missiles and several of their modifications.
As we saw today, they can launch from 3 to 9 missiles at a time. Usually, this is 6 launches, from several vehicles. Once the missiles are exhausted, the launch containers will be used for Himers missiles, but also until they are completely expended.
The vehicle basing and missile storage sites are currently a priority target for us. As well as the personnel who service/load them.
- Condottiero
According to various sources, the Ukrainian Armed Forces currently have about 50 MGM-140A ATACMS Block I missiles and several of their modifications.
As we saw today, they can launch from 3 to 9 missiles at a time. Usually, this is 6 launches, from several vehicles. Once the missiles are exhausted, the launch containers will be used for Himers missiles, but also until they are completely expended.
The vehicle basing and missile storage sites are currently a priority target for us. As well as the personnel who service/load them.
- Condottiero
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I understand that around $900M of the new loan will be used to repay old loans. The Bankers usually win
The IMF has reached a preliminary agreement with Ukraine, under which Kiev may receive another tranche of $1.1 billion.
@ukraine_watch
The IMF has reached a preliminary agreement with Ukraine, under which Kiev may receive another tranche of $1.1 billion.
@ukraine_watch
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mnztr- Posts : 2898
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caveat emptor wrote:@Mir
Of course not. But, retaliating strictly in Ukraine will not make any difference, as no one in the west gives a shit about Ukrainians. Cutting underwater cables in scale would be a possible, good answer to this latest escalation. It has to be painful enough and clear enough that it was a planned sabotage and not just a random occurrence. And going directly against western countries.
Changing nuclear deterrence doctrine doesn't mean much in this context. Also, don't run your mouth unless you intend to back it up with action.
100% right, they need to lauch missiles with Russian markings at the US base in Syria. a single Iskander. if they don't more and larger strikes will follow as surely as the sun rise. Either that or blow some US and NATO drones out of the sky over the black sea.
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flamming_python wrote:As pointed out, the West could care less about the Ukraine and targeting anything there will neither create deterrence nor impress anyone.
And I don't see what actions Russia could take through some proxy forces that can match missiles being launched against its territory.
I mean I don't deny the preference for deniability or a masquerade. Dress up as Somali pirates if you have to. But to do any serious damage Russian units will have to be employed, not the Houthis or whoever.
I think VVP was quite clear no? if this happens he no longer considers it a proxy attack, as there is significant involvement of the USA in this type of attack, ergo Russia can just launch an Iskandar in Syria to strike the US base.
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