Azerbaijan vs Armenia [Nagorno-Karabakh conflict]

ATLASCUB wrote:Confuse Armenian elites?   They got their man already in place.

Pelosi's visit is more than just a "normal" trip. This is a well calculated play by the man (and entourage) that the Kremlin and its allies in Armenia have failed to overthrow for god knows how long. It can't be a louder message to the Kremlin.

This is playing out extremely well for the U.S.

You have the U.S offering security assurances to Armenia. You also have protests in Yerevan seeking a pull out by Armenia from the CSTO (manufacturing mass support by using a complex national crisis to rally support), while Azerbaijan and the Turks play their role of the dog on a leash. Russia is sandwiched in-between and neutralized from making any moves by trying to balance all sides. It's a masterful chess move in motion, even if it doesn't devolve into anything of serious concrete importance. At the very least these moves put the ball moving, and you never know, Armenia is a few obstacles away from flipping like Georgia.... with mainly military elites and a few older chaps holding the line. If by some chance they flip or get pushed out of the board... it's toast for the Kremlin boys. Thus, because of this, you see the U.S and its vultures make the move....you proactively shake the board cause you never know what may fall out of it.

Pelosi's visit is not by chance, it's by invitation and with high up political approval. Where is Putin? Definitely not in Armenia, but Pelosi (and America) is. Optics 101.

Overall it's like pulling the rug under the house of cards built by the Kremlin boys.  The U.S/UK going hard at the CSTO, Eurasian Economic Union.....throwing a big massive fvck you wrench to the designs of the Union State by blowing up Ukraine etc etc. They won't stop until it's all crumbling in ashes. As they should btw, you keep your dominant position in no small part by destroying your rival designs and work. The earlier the better. After all, the Kremlin too is pushing for the end of the unipolar world order, and that hits home with the anglo, and global elites - sort of gets personal you see. Challenge met with challenge. Zero sum.

It's the job of the Kremlin boys to meet the challenge and surpass their rivals. Fail? Well, some consequences are known, some you won't even dream of.

sundoesntrise wrote:

ATLASCUB wrote:Confuse Armenian elites?   They got their man already in place.

Pelosi's visit is more than just a "normal" trip. This is a well calculated play by the man (and entourage) that the Kremlin and its allies in Armenia have failed to overthrow for god knows how long. It can't be a louder message to the Kremlin.

This is playing out extremely well for the U.S.

You have the U.S offering security assurances to Armenia. You also have protests in Yerevan seeking a pull out by Armenia from the CSTO (manufacturing mass support by using a complex national crisis to rally support), while Azerbaijan and the Turks play their role of the dog on a leash. Russia is sandwiched in-between and neutralized from making any moves by trying to balance all sides. It's a masterful chess move in motion, even if it doesn't devolve into anything of serious concrete importance. At the very least these moves put the ball moving, and you never know, Armenia is a few obstacles away from flipping like Georgia.... with mainly military elites and a few older chaps holding the line. If by some chance they flip or get pushed out of the board... it's toast for the Kremlin boys. Thus, because of this, you see the U.S and its vultures make the move....you proactively shake the board cause you never know what may fall out of it.

Pelosi's visit is not by chance, it's by invitation and with high up political approval. Where is Putin? Definitely not in Armenia, but Pelosi (and America) is. Optics 101.

Overall it's like pulling the rug under the house of cards built by the Kremlin boys.  The U.S/UK going hard at the CSTO, Eurasian Economic Union.....throwing a big massive fvck you wrench to the designs of the Union State by blowing up Ukraine etc etc. They won't stop until it's all crumbling in ashes. As they should btw, you keep your dominant position in no small part by destroying your rival designs and work. The earlier the better. After all, the Kremlin too is pushing for the end of the unipolar world order, and that hits home with the anglo, and global elites - sort of gets personal you see. Challenge met with challenge. Zero sum.

It's the job of the Kremlin boys to meet the challenge and surpass their rivals. Fail? Well, some consequences are known, some you won't even dream of.

Your assessment of Russia's moves is correct - in that they are mostly ineffective or even counterproductive.

However imo stating that Erdo&Aliyev are on a US leash is a bridge too far. They are loose guns and at this point all the indicators point at them having a go at establishing that land corridor through Armenian territory. In fact they've already started it as during the Sept. 13-14 fighting they have taken up much more advantegous positions inside Armenian territory. Reminder that at its narrowest point the corridor is only 40-45 km, and that a full on invasion will likely be from two sides.

The timing would be perfect. Russia has been exposed as weak and is distracted elsewhere, the EU has just agreed on extensive new gas contracts with Azerbaijan (which they really need), the US is far away and equally occupied in Ukraine, and Armenia itself seems paralyzed by deep internal divisions and a traitorous prime Minister at the helm.

Only question mark is Iran. Based on recent history they are all bark and no bite, having their wings clipped by the (military) sanctions and sitting on a volcano themselves. Imagine Iran getting involved in the conflict. People in Tel Aviv would be absolutely creaming over the thought.

Also shout out to the peeps who during the Artsakh 2020 War were beyond adamant that Azerbaijan attacking Armenia proper would never ever happen because powerful Russia blablabla..

TMA1 wrote:Incoherent rambling

Krepost wrote:

GarryB wrote:

Also shout out to the peeps who during the Artsakh 2020 War were beyond adamant that Azerbaijan attacking Armenia proper would never ever happen because powerful Russia blablabla..

Yeah, because power is being a bully like the US... pick your side and obliterate the other side and that other side is always bad until they are useful.

Clear you are the one that doesn't get it.

BTW the US is very keen to destroy any org or construction they are not part of and have no control over... fragile little princesses.

flamming_python wrote:

Actually this past 6 months has brought an economic improvement to Russia.
What junior partnership with the Chinese? The same Chinese who chickened out on Taiwan? Not that I blame them for averting conflict; but they're not leading Russia around by the nose.
Russia's main adversaries meanwhile, the EU and to a lesser extent the US are in trouble economically. Their plans for inciting regime change in Russia did not work. While the rest of the world is mostly busy distancing themselves from that mad crew.
And their man Pashinyan and his petty schemes in Yerevan is hardly much of a consolation prize for Washington
Neither the Erdo and Aliev tandem. Yes Russia is invested completely into the Ukraine and does not have the leverage to bring to bear against anyone else at the moment as it needs their support instead.. the West BTW is in the same position. But this is temporary. As soon as the current crisis between the bigger players passes Erdogan and Aliev will be shown where they belong by those same bigger players, although not before having won some dividends of their own in the meantime.

Your thesis here is nothing but a reflection of your own inner doomerism and Chicken little complex. More defeatist porn to scratch that itch. Give it a break.

flamming_python wrote:
Actually this past 6 months has brought an economic improvement to Russia.

ALAMO wrote:
But of course.
Take a look at RUB conversion rates.
The reference rates.
Mortgage rates.
Unemployment.

There are two things that can bother a regular citizen, that is slightly lower disposable income due to higher costs of living, and a decline of net value of the income.

Both are not even close to the decline the other countries in the west are facing right now.
And has not much to do with Ukraine.

ALAMO wrote:

sepheronx wrote:The duran did a video where they talked up the idea that US was mostly behind this recent flare up. They stated its a method to try and get Armenia out of russias influence because the US demanded it as recently from Armenia saying they would never have a problem with Azerbaijan again, more or less threatening Azerbaijan.

But seems more and more that Russia started to really give a middle finger to Armenia, as for the last decade or more it brought more issues than gains.
The announcement of selling Rusian gas (!!) to Iran is still warm, aired yesterday.
It will be pumped via Azeri gas system.
This is a gain, a real money, and a real power leverage.
What can offer the Armenians, other than next stab in back?

ALAMO wrote:
My mortgage DOUBLED in the last 2 months. Not 10% rise, not 20% rise, not 50%, but DOUBLE.
And will pay even more next month.
By gas bill quadrupled.
Electricity threefoled.
Maybe some Russkie can switch, how do you think?