The Situation in the Ukraine. #14

kvs wrote:The crying by EU-tards about being blacklisted and calling it a "violation of international law" is beyond ludicrous and pathetic.
Since when has international law applied to the selection of visas by any country?

KoTeMoRe wrote:FFS this bleeding is insane, even by those standarts its about 10/15 casualties per day. It's a 3/400 casualties per month operation. At this rate the Ukrops will either have to attack or start another mobilization wave...

KoTeMoRe wrote:FFS people the black list BS is because generally states who get blacklisted don't fireback. And usually don't matter.

whir wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:FFS people the black list BS is because generally states who get blacklisted don't fireback. And usually don't matter.

But this time is different since little bird told me (and it's not Twitter) that at least 2 of the blacklisted are really butthurt because they can no longer travel to Russia.

The Guardian wrote:Putin’s travel bans are the latest mis-step in a clumsy diplomatic dance with Europe
Mary Dejevsky Sunday 31 May 2015 19.30 BST

Relations have deteriorated so much that we don’t know if the bar on Nick Clegg and others visiting Russia is a sham diplomatic storm or a real one

onsigned to the back benches, party leader and deputy prime minister no more, Nick Clegg finds himself suddenly back in the spotlight … because he has been banned from Russia. Tragi-comic, perverse, regrettable – choose your adjective to describe this latest twist in international diplomacy.

Clegg is one of nine Britons and 89 European Union citizens on a list of prohibited individuals that Russia has now “shared with” Brussels, and the response was predictable. The bans were immediately condemned by the EU as arbitrary, unjustified and possibly illegal. A common conclusion was that Russia is deliberately escalating the conflict with the west over Ukraine to a new and even more dangerous level.

Tempting though it may be to see it in this way – especially for fractious Europeans in need of a new rallying point – this is not the only permissible interpretation. We could in fact be watching the latest mis-steps in the clumsy diplomatic dance that has Russia and the EU still treading on each other’s toes, just as the United States is trying to change the music. John Kerry, the US secretary of state (now recovering from a broken leg), stopped off in Sochi to meet President Putin two weeks ago, in a reopening of public contact that the EU has yet to follow.

Throughout the east-west standoff over Ukraine, mistiming and misreading have been the norm, and the latest verbal sniping offers more of the same. Russian visa bans are not new; what is new is the “sharing” of the list – it has still not been officially published. But this comes in response to long-standing efforts by the EU for clarification from Russia about who is and is not subject to a ban. Now the Russians have apparently provided it: is this an unfriendly act or not? (And, they might ask, who started the war of visa bans anyway?)

Now consider who is on this list: not exactly A-listers. The vast majority are former this and former that. As well as Clegg, the UK list includes the former MP, former foreign secretary and former intelligence committee chairman Malcolm Rifkind. Speaking today, Rifkind said the Russian ban was proof of EU sanctions working, and he had no immediate plans to visit the country. Nor, no doubt, do Clegg, Andrew Parker, the head of MI5, John Sawers, the former head of MI6, and Nicholas Houghton, the chief of the defence staff. Continue reading.

Vann7 wrote:Busted! Ukrainian officers responsible for death of five civilians in Horlivka are identified!

In 1977, Protocol I was adopted as an amendment to the Geneva Conventions, prohibiting the deliberate or indiscriminate attack of civilians and civilian objects, even if the area contained military objectives, and the attacking force must take precautions and steps to spare the lives of civilians and civilian objects as possible. However, forces occupying near densely populated areas must avoid locating military objectives near or in densely populated areas and endeavor to remove civilians from the vicinity of military objectives. Failure to do so would cause a higher civilian death toll resulting from bombardment by the attacking force and the defenders would be held responsible, even criminally liable, for these deaths. This issue was addressed because drafters of Protocol I pointed out historical examples such as Japan in World War II who often dispersed legitimate military and industrial targets (almost two-thirds of production was from small factories of thirty or fewer persons or in wooden homes, which were clustered around the factories) throughout urban areas in many of its cities either with the sole purpose of preventing enemy forces from bombing these targets or using its civilian casualties caused by enemy bombardment as propaganda value against the enemy. This move made Japan vulnerable to area bombardment and the U.S. Army Air Forces (USAAF) adopted a policy of carpetbombing which destroyed 69 Japanese cities with either incendiary bombs or atomic bombs, with the deaths of 381,000-500,000 Japanese people.[30][31][32][33] wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote: Oh they are?

Reuters wrote:U.N. finds growing signs of Russian involvement in Ukraine war
World | Mon Jun 1, 2015 11:47am EDT GENEVA | BY TOM MILES

A separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine is revealing increasing evidence, but not yet conclusive legal proof, of Russian state involvement, senior United Nations human rights officials said on Monday.

"We are speaking about increasing inflow of (unofficial) fighters and increasing evidence that there are also some (Russian) servicemen involved in fighting," Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Ivan Simonovic told a news conference in Geneva.

Russia denies Western accusations that it is backing pro-Russian rebels with arms and troops.

On May 21, U.N. officials interviewed two Russians captured in eastern Ukraine. The two men believe they should be treated as captured servicemen, but Russia says they are former soldiers who had left the military.

The pair were charged with terrorism by Ukrainian authorities, putting them "between a rock and a hard place", Simonovic said.

"It is very difficult to prove whether they are servicemen or not. That is why mostly we are speaking about 'fighters' of the Russian federation," said Armen Harutyunyan, head of the U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine. Continue reading.

New York Times wrote:Fighting in Ukraine Eases, but Abuses Continue on Both Sides, U.N. Says
By NICK CUMMING-BRUCEJUNE 1, 2015

GENEVA — Fighting in eastern Ukraine has eased recently, but at least 6,417 people have died in the conflict and abuses that may amount to war crimes continue to be committed by both sides, the United Nations said Monday.

Nearly 16,000 people have also been injured since fighting broke out between Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists in the region in April 2014, Ivan Simonovic, assistant head of the United Nations human rights office, told reporters in Geneva in presenting the latest report of its monitors.

The casualty estimates were conservative, Mr. Simonovic emphasized. Both sides have reported that hundreds of people are missing, and morgues in the contested areas reportedly hold hundreds more bodies, the report said.

Indiscriminate shelling and the number of civilian casualties from the fighting have fallen since February, but “the shelling has not stopped, nor have armed hostilities between Ukrainian armed forces and armed groups, meaning that civilians continue to live in fear,” the human rights office said in a statement released with its report, which focuses on developments in the three months to May 15. Continue reading.

The Guardian wrote:Ukraine prisoners stranded in legal limbo on the frontline of a war
Anton Naumlyuk for MediaZona, part of the New East network
Monday 1 June 2015 05.00 BST

17,000 inmates were serving sentences in the east before the conflict began. Many remain in jail, with no one to review their cases or authorise their release. Anton Naumlyuk travelled from Artyomovsk to Mariupol to speak to them

“When [former president Viktor] Yanukovich was in power, they rammed the prisons to bursting point,” said an inmate at Penal Colony Number 57 in the village of Michurino in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic. “If you nicked a bag of potatoes they’d put you away for five or seven years.”

After the pro-European Maidan revolution and the fall of Yanukovich’s government, prisoners had hoped that their cases would be reviewed, he added. Instead those being held in disputed territories found themselves trapped in legal limbo – some of them on the frontline of a war.

“They put us in prison and we’ve wound up in some sort of trench,” he said. “We’ve got Glory to Ukraine written on the fence on one side and on the other we’ve got jeeps with Donetsk People’s Republic [DPR] flags driving around. Then a bombardment kicks off and shells start flying in from both sides.”

Last July, a rocket attack destroyed two barracks in the prison. The canteen, industrial zone, and administrative office were all hit, killing six prisoners and a guard. After this, shells bombarded the prison and its grounds on an almost daily basis throughout the summer of 2014, he added.

Until recently, the prison had no electricity or running water. During particularly intense bombing campaigns inmates hid for weeks in a damp basement, and by spring many of them were ill.

“The sewage treatment plant in [nearby] Horlovka was bombed out, and nobody knew about it,” recalled another prisoner. “Half the zona [colony] got diarrhoea and were throwing up. They were really worried that dysentery would break out,” he says.

Neither Ukrainian authorities nor the separatists deliver food or medicines to the prison, with supplies provided only by inmates’ relatives, and on rare occasions by volunteer organisations.

“The zona is practically self-reliant. Everyone brings what they can – medicines, food. There’s machine-guns and mortars firing all the way here, but relatives still come – to bring us at least something,” said an inmate. “There’ve been two loads of humanitarian aid, one an eight-tonner, the other a six. But that’s a drop in the ocean for 600 people. Just enough to survive.” Continue reading.

Spiegel wrote:Paid as a Pro-Kremlin Troll: 'The Hatred Spills over into the Real World'
By Benjamin Bidder June 01, 2015 – 03:48 PM

Lyudmila Savchuk recently went public about her experiences working for a Russian Internet propaganda factory in St. Petersburg. In an interview, she describes how clandestine workers are promoting the Kremlin's message.

Lyudmila Savchuk speaks quickly. She also uses two phones at the same time -- they've been ringing nonstop since a news agency ran a feature about Savchuk and her experiences working as a professional Kremlin Internet troll. Savchuk, who hails from St. Petersburg, says she wants to set the record straight: She isn't simply a former employee at a St. Petersburg "troll factory," she is a journalist who deliberately infiltrated it to expose the business of paying people to post pro-Kremlin online comments.

To do so, Savchuk says she joined forces with other activists in a group called InfoPeace. Savchuk now wants to take her former employer to court so that the truth about the Kremlin's troll houses and the people behind them will come to light.
SPIEGEL ONLINE: You worked in a so-called "Troll Factory" in St. Petersburg, where you were paid to post comments supporting the Kremlin line. How did you get inside?

Savchuk: I decided last October to research this structure from within. I spoke with a few friends about it, activists. I also got counsel from lawyers on my actions.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Why?

Savchuk: Because you have to sign a few declarations of commitment as well as a confidentiality agreement. You're not allowed to talk about the work, especially not to the press. An atmosphere of utmost secrecy is deliberately created, which I found to be laughable from the very beginning. In truth, these papers have no legal validity.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: What platforms are the St. Petersburg trolls using?

Savchuk: I have personally seen the following: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Livejournal.com as well as the Russian networks VK.com and Odnoklassniki. The targets also include the discussion areas on all major news sites and the forums of the websites of cities in the Russian provinces. A colleague of mine posted primarily in forums in Saratov and Engels, two cities along the Volga River. I worked on Livejournal blogs, which are very popular in Russia. Continue reading.

Spiegel via Google Translate wrote:Foto-Analyse zum Absturz: Wie Russland die MH17-Beweise manipulierte
Photo analysis crash: How Russia manipulated the MH17-evidence
Monday, 01/06/2015 - 11:20 clock

Clouds have been added, changed datings: Moscow has apparently falsified satellite photos to shoot down of flight MH17. Experts reveal now, how the Russians vorgingen, ascribe to the Ukraine to blame for the crash.

298 people are dead. They died on 17 July 2014 in a Boeing 777 of Malaysia Airlines on the Eastern Ukraine. They were en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur when the plane was attacked. Who is responsible for the death of human beings?

After Russian interpretation is Kiev: Ukrainians have flight MH17 shot, it was shortly after the accident from the Kremlin. The Russian Defense Ministry published four days later, several satellite images to demonstrate alleged activities of the Ukrainian air defense in the region. Kiev denies the accusations.
Now the independent Investigativplattform Bellingcat has two of the photos presented analyzes. The result of the experts is clear - in its report ( read here the whole investigation report as a PDF ) states:

"The forensic analysis by the Bellingcat investigation team has clearly and undoubtedly demonstrated that these satellite photos dated incorrectly and were changed digitally by the software Adobe Photoshop CS5."
Ten experts from the Investigativteams have two of the images analyzed, published Russia on July 21. To check the authenticity of satellite photos, they have analyzed the sources and metadata. In addition, the authors have the two images of a so-called reference Fehlerstufen- and analysis of image contents subjected to clarify their plausibility. These images it is: Continue reading.

Carnegie wrote:Why the Kremlin Is Shutting Down the Novorossiya Project
Posted by: ANDREI KOLESNIKOV FRIDAY, MAY 29, 2015

On May 20, the leaders of the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics (LNR and DNR) announced the abandonment of the Novorossiya project, a hypothetical confederation of states in southeastern Ukraine stretching from Kharkiv to Odessa. DNR Foreign Minister Alexander Kofman said that the idea hadn’t attracted enough support outside the separatist territories. Oleg Tsaryov, the speaker of Novorossiya’s “Unitary Parliament” and a frequent guest on Russian television, offered a different explanation: “The work of Novorossiya [official] structures has been frozen because it does not conform to the [Minsk II] peace agreement signed in the presence of the Normandy Four countries [Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France, on February 12].”

It is no coincidence that the closure comes just days after Secretary of State John Kerry met with President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Sochi, and Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland met with her counterparts in Moscow, marking the highest-level meetings between U.S. and Russian officials in Russia since the beginning of the crisis in Ukraine. Although representatives from the Russian Foreign Ministry insisted that they would not cut a deal with the Americans, the two sides seem to have come to some kind of agreement.

The Novorossiya project would not have been shuttered had Moscow not overtly pressured separatist leaders. A week before the closure, the ultra-right Russian ideologue Alexander Dugin suggested in his weekly column for the “Novorossiya Information Agency” that a “Crimea for Novorossiya” deal was about to be negotiated. According to this agreement, he suggested, the separatists would comply with the Minsk II agreements and attempt to strengthen the DNR’s and LNR’s autonomy within the borders of Ukraine. Dugin was not alone in his prediction: others have long suggested that such an exchange was possible. Continue reading.

Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa/U.S. 6th Fleet wrote:USS Ross in the Black Sea: May 30, 2015

ОМБ "Август" - Армия Новороссии wrote:New Russia. Tank streetracing :-)

max TV wrote:We FSUs "First rule FSUs" second red lights bl @ Th! We ride ...

Tank DNR stuck in the swamp

Erich Hartmann New Channel wrote:Shirokino - "Russian world" - Rashisty blast fence

sepheronx wrote:Spiegel strikes again as retarded news. If I want to read bullshit, I wouldnt be here Whir or whatecer your name is.

Anyway, counter Spiegels mention of bellingcats bullshit: http://ntv.livejournal.com/398128.html

Apparently rips apart bellingcats claims.

As well, that Sevchuk woman is an idiot. Not only do I think she is a liar, but a signed agreement between her and any other entity when applying and doing a job, is credible especially if both parties signed so the stupid c*** can get counter sued quite easily.

Kiev flirting with selectively defaulting on its obligations

This article originally appeared at True Economics

An interesting and far-reaching article on Ukraine’s attempts to restructure some of its debts via Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-29/ukraine-creditors-said-to-offer-coupon-cuts-10-year-extension-ia9ao4ey

In the nutshell, Ukraine needs to restructure its debt per IMF three targets for debt ‘sustainability’:

   generate $15 billion in public-sector financing during the program period;

   bring the public and publicly guaranteed debt-to-GDP ratio under 71% of GDP by 2020; and

   keep the budget’s gross financing needs at an average of 10% of GDP (maximum of 12% of GDP annually) in 2019–2025

Note, these are different than what Bloomberg reports.

Key difference, however, is the matter of Russian debt. S&P note from February 2015 addressed this in detail: see more here. In simple terms, Ukraine’s debt to Russia is not, repeat: not, a private debt. Instead it is official bilateral debt. As such it is not covered by the IMF programme condition for restructuring privately held debt regardless of whatever Ukrainian Rada or Government think. Full details of the IMF programme are linked here.

As I noted in March: “IMF has already pre-committed Ukraine to cutting USD15.3 billion off its Government debt levels via private sector ‘participation’ in the programme”. Once again, Bloomberg ‘conveniently’ ignores this pesky fact about only private debt being covered.

Now, it appears we have the first private sector offer for restructuring. It is pretty dramatic, as Bloomberg note linked above outlines. But it is clearly not enough, as it involves no cuts to the principal. This is the sticking point because the proposal front-loads notional savings to the amount of USD15.8 billion, but it subsequently requires Ukraine to repay full principal - a point that is not exactly in contradiction to the IMF plan in letter, but certainly risks violating it in spirit. The chart below shows that beyond Q2 2017, Ukraine is facing pretty steep repayments of debt and there is absolutely no guarantee that by then Ukraine will be able to withstand this repayments cliff.



To further complicate issues, Ukrainian Parliament (Rada) passed a law last week that would hold off repayments of debt until there is an agreement with private holders on haircuts. This presents three key problems for Ukraine:

   The law can be used to hold off on repaying Russian debt, which is not private by definition and as such will constitute a sovereign default on bilateral loans. This will be pretty much as ugly as it gets short of defaulting on IMF.

   The law, if implemented, will also halt repayments on genuine private debt. Which will also constitute a default.

   If Russia refuses to restructure its debt (for example, citing the fact that it is non-private debt), Rada law will have to be applied selectively (e.g. if Rada suspends repayments on Russian debt alone), which will strengthen Russian position in international courts.

In case of default, be it on Russian debt or on private debt, or both, Ukraine will see its foreign assets arrested. Which involves state enterprises-owned property, accounts etc. The reason for this is that Rada has no jurisdiction over laws governing these bonds, which are issued under English law. In addition, Ukrainian banks - big holders of Ukrainian Government debt - will be made insolvent overnight as the value of their assets (bonds) will collapse.

Final point is that ex-post application of the law, there will be no possibility for achieving any voluntary restructuring of debt as all negotiations will be terminated because Ukraine will be declared in a default.

While Greece continues to attract much of the media attention, the real crunch time is currently happening in Kiev and the outcome of this crisis is likely to have a significant impact across the international financial system, despite the fact that Ukraine is a relatively small minnow in the world of international finance.

Here is Euromoney Country Risk assessment of Ukrainian credit risks:





Ukraine score is 26.30 which ranks the country 147th in the world in creditworthiness.

kvs wrote:

Viktor wrote:Nazi junta does what it knows best - 10% GDP decline for 2015  

The IMF downgraded the forecast decline in GDP of Ukraine

These forecasts are ludicrous.   Ukraine's official GDP shrank by 17.6% in the first quarter of 2015.  The
decline has accelerated from late last year.   In order for it to only fall by 10% it must actually grow in the second
half of this year.   Does anyone here believe that there will be any growth in Ukraine in 2015?   Seriously, these
forecasts are politically motivate trash.

President at the meeting with pupils on the Day of Children's Protection: Step by step we should build a European Ukraine