Karl Haushofer wrote:The nature of the war in Donbass seems to have changed lately, and not in a good way for Novorossiya.
Instead of suicidal offensives and going into cauldrons the Ukrainian military is staying put and shelling both the military and civilian targets in Donbass. In this week hundreds of civilians in different parts of Donbass have been killed by the shelling of Kiev. I’m sure the American advisers have played their part in this change of strategy.
What does this mean? The NAF (Novorossiyan Armed Forces) have to go for an offensives against well fortified junta positions. This will
1. cause great losses in manpower and arms for the NAF
2. give Kiev and the West a good pretext to blame the NAF for escalation and breach of Minsk agreement (as they ignore the previous shelling of Kiev and only take notice when the NAF goes for an offensive) and extend the sanctions on Russia.
The latest battle in Marinka was a good demonstration. The Kiev junta used Marinka as a base for shelling other parts of Donetsk. The junta also fortified Marinka well with the help of their US advisers. As the civilian casualties started to mount the NAF had no other options than to start an offensive against Marinka. The NAF suffered heavy losses (hundreds of KIA according to pro-Novorossiyan sources) and managed to capture only a small part of Marinka. The Kiev junta considered the outcome as a victory since they managed to inflict heavy losses for the NAF and keep most of Marinka.
I’m afraid that outcomes like happened in Ilovaysk and Debaltsevo are not going to happen anymore. The Ukrainian military is simply better than it was then. They have become wiser. They “bait” the NAF to attack by killing scores of civilians and then repel these attacks while inflicting heavy losses for the NAF.
The current standings in the war are in favor of Kiev, since Novorossiya is in a constant survival mode. The war has been going on for a year and the enemy has not even been driven out of Donetsk yet. In order to do so Donbass needs increased Russian help which may not be coming. Expect this war to continue for at least two or three more years with thousands of more civilians dying.
Karl, I respect you and all but I really need to tear you a new one right now:
-Your constant panicking and doomsday predictions are getting tiresome.
-Nothing changed in nature of this war and nothing will, especially not in favor of UAF, unless their tuberculosis ridden cannon fodder somehow starts spreading tuberculosis among NAF troops.
-UAF is not getting better. What on earth would make you even think that they got better? Just because couple of US nobodies were prancing around with some UAF grunts for the camera? You can polish a turd till your hands bleed, turd it is still a turd.
-If several thousand instructors from a country like Israel or Serbia came to Ukraine and spent no less than 2 years training no less than 20.000 ukrops then MAYBE, I repeat MAYBE there might be some remote possibility of marginal UAF improvement. Anything less is just a bad joke.
Only thing they can learn from US army is to call for air-support every time someone shoots at them. Just to remind you: Ukraine does not have air-force anymore.
-UAF kills civilians. UAF can kill more civilians.
UAF can kill every last single civilian in Donbass but it will not bring them an inch closer to winning a single battle let alone winning a war.
-UAF can shell NAF positions but NAF is also able to shell UAF positions without a problem. Or did ukrops suddenly develop natural immunity to fragmentation warheads?
-Ilovaysk and Debaltsevo will be repeating on regular basis for years to come and trust me, this war will last for years and years. Keeping NAF in play is pretty cheap for Russia but keeping UAF in the game is very expensive and problematic for Washington and especially Brussels. Or have you been completely ignoring news from EU?
-Marinka was just a warning shot for Kiev to remind them not to do anything stupid in Transdnitria. NAF was doing that without much heavy equipment in play. Once time comes for hard&heavy approach it will not be 2 day ops in just one jerkwater town.
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Nothing in this war favors Kiev. You don't win wars with pats on the back. They are the ones in survival mode, they are the ones who have to beg for money and gear, they are the ones who depend on their enemy for gas and power and they are the ones whose population is stuck in European version of Gaza Strip/Anbar province. Donbass civilians can pack up and leave, where will Ukrainian serfs go?Remember, EU put up "No Vacancy" sign years ago and it is not coming of any time soon.
So please for the love of Perun
stop screaming "treason" and "all is lost" every time civilian in an active warzone gets killed. We know it's tragic but this is war. People die in wars, that is the whole point and defining feature of any war ever fought.
Until now almost 6000 civilians died in this war over course of one year. You know what that is? It's nothing, a comedy act, a bad joke, a statistical error. During the 90's here in the Balkans we were scoring that many per week for several consecutive months at a time.
So grow a pair, man up and stop acting like a little girl because I am really bored with your doomsday paranoia drama routine...
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