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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #15

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    Post  whir Fri Jun 12, 2015 9:46 am

    bmpd.livejournal via Google Translate wrote:Новый руководитель ГП "Антонов" о программах Ан-70 и Ан-178
    The new head of state enterprise "Antonov" programs AN-70 and AN-178
    bmpd June 8th, 0:11

    On the Ukrainian web-site aerovokzal.net, a new very interesting interview with Sergei Merenkova, in July 2014 appointed the new head of the Ukrainian government (President-General Designer) GP "Antonov", but is still not inaugurated due to the resistance of the old management "Antonov", headed by Dmitry Kiva.

    Most of the interviews, for obvious reasons, is composed of exposures S. Merenkova current leadership "Antonov", but the fragments are of considerable interest to the subject of criticism from C programs Merenkova transport aircraft An-70 and An-178 in particular.

    "Antonov" behind the scenes. View from Sergei Merenkova, Part 2


    Summer and autumn of last year in the national aviation industry have been marked by change - The Ukrainian government tried to change the leadership of the State Enterprise "Antonov". "Air Terminal" then presented to the public the program of reforms of the new leader - Sergei Merenkova.

    But subsequent events have unfolded differently, as we have asked Sergey V., who still claims to the leadership of "Antonov". Continue reading.

    Sputnik wrote:US Congress Blocks Aid to Ukraine’s 'Repulsive' Neo-Nazis
    US 10:15 12.06.2015(updated 10:20 12.06.2015)

    During Thursday’s discussion on defense appropriations for this year the US House of Representatives approved bipartisan amendments to block the training of the Ukrainian neo-Nazi paramilitary militia “Azov Battalion,” and to prevent the transfer of shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles to Iraq or Ukraine.

    The amendments were tabled by Democratic Congressman John Conyers, Jr., and his Republican colleague Ted Yoho.

    "I am grateful that the House of Representatives unanimously passed my amendments last night to ensure that our military does not train members of the repulsive neo-Nazi Azov Battalion, along with my measures to keep the dangerous and easily trafficked MANPADs out of these unstable regions,” John Conyers said in a Congressional press release on Thursday. Continue reading.

    Time wrote:Bill Bradley: 5 Steps for Peace in Ukraine
    Bill Bradley June 11, 2015

    Bill Bradley is a former U.S. senator.

    Improving U.S.- Russia relations starts with Ukraine

    In Ukraine, lives continue to be lost, families are split, property is destroyed, the economy is decimated, ethnic divisions proliferate, and political unity remains non-existent. The human tragedy grows every day. The U.S., Europe, and Russia seem deadlocked, unable to understand the other’s point of view.

    Ukraine inflamed tensions recently by giving Ukrainian citizenship to Mikheil Saakashvili, the former President of Georgia, and then appointing him governor of the Odessa province. The chance for wider war lurks in the background with all that would mean for the Ukrainian people, Europe, and the U.S.-Russian relationship. As with many international events, the Ukrainian crisis has occurred in a broader historical context.

    At the end of the Cold War, the prevailing view in Washington was that the U.S. was strong, and Russia was weak and did not count in a unipolar world. We disregarded Russia’s opposition to NATO expansion, the Iraq War, and the U.S.-led military intervention in Serbia for the independence of Kosovo. We went back on our assurances to Russia that the air war on Libya was limited to saving civilian lives and did not include regime change. We withdrew from the ABM Treaty and even suggested that Ukraine and Georgia join NATO. Continue reading.

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    Antonio Amoretto wrote:Night pogrom in the dorm Kharkov
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    Post  whir Fri Jun 12, 2015 10:41 am

    Not sure if it could be a warehouse with the chemical mixture used to generate foam to fire extinguishing operations or just of the usual insulation foam used for construction.

    NV via Google Translate wrote:Под Киевом загорелся склад с пенопластом, дым виден из столицы
    Near Kiev warehouse caught fire with foam, the smoke is visible from the capital
    Today, 11:00 AM

    Social network users write that a huge column of smoke visible from the capital

    In Brovary Kiev region there was a fire in a warehouse with foam, according to TSN with reference to the civil service for emergency situations.

    "Users of social networking wrote that a huge column of smoke visible from the capital and share photos and video of the incident in the suburbs," - the newspaper notes.

    Rescuers during the attack found the body of foam on the tank farm near Kiev Today, 10:25
    As reported in Vasylkivska district of Kiev region from June 8 continues to fire at the tank farm BRSM-Nafta. P as at 6:30 on Friday and oil depot in Vassilkovskaya area continued to burn three large tank with fuel. Continue reading.

    Update. It appears unrelated to the tank farm fire.

    NV via Google Translate wrote:Пожар на складе пенопласта под Киевом локализован
    A fire at a warehouse near Kiev is localized foam
    Today, 11:37

    As of 11:30 continued liquidation of fire

    A fire at a warehouse in the foam Brovary Kyiv region localized at 10:17, was reported in the State Service for Emergency Situations.

    As of 11:30 continued liquidation of fire on the area of ​​300 sq.m.

    "On arrival at the place of fire call at 09:50, it was found that the fire engulfed the metal hangar sized 15x20 m, which is used as a warehouse for storage of mineral wool and foam", - the report says GSCHS. Continue reading.

    Политика 2015 wrote:Stakhanov against the backdrop of constant attacks farewell to the Army battalion commander LC

    Day Kiev via Google Translate wrote:Газопостачання Маріуполя і Бердянська зупинено через обстріл газопроводу бойовиками
    Gas Mariupol and Berdyansk stopped by gunmen firing pipeline
    June 12, 2015 - 11:51

    "Ukrtransgaz" reluctantly turned off the gas supply Volnovakha cities, Mariupol, Berdyansk to repair the damaged gas pipeline fire Kramatorsk, Donetsk Du1000 near the settlement reed.

    "At the moment, the damaged area is localized personnel" Ukrtransgaz ". Gas supply will be suspended for the duration of repairs. Since the cessation of hostilities approximately 1.5-2 times", - said the spokesperson Maxim Byelyavskyy.

    "The transit of gas to Europe this emergency does not affect" - he stressed.

    Earlier in the morning the chief GU MVD Ukraine in Donetsk oblast Vyacheslav Abroskin said the pipeline damaged as a result of mortar attack by militants in the area between Yasinuvatska Krasnogorovka and Novokalynovym. Continue reading.
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    Post  Big_Gazza Fri Jun 12, 2015 11:20 am

    higurashihougi wrote:S3xual intercouse btw an Ukie BMP-2 and an Ukie T-64 pwnd pwnd

    Dunno whether pornographic pics of armoured vehicle violated the forum's rules pwnd pwnd

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #15 - Page 24 10433780_1653401868224207_1510318332006750567_n

    Hmmm... up the ar$e... Ukrop style like the Azov boys... Laughing
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    Post  whir Fri Jun 12, 2015 12:36 pm

    Hromadske Radio via Google Translate wrote:Единственный трубопровод канала Северский Донец – Донбасс прекратил подачу воды
    The only pipeline channel Seversky Donets - Donbass stopped water supply
    06/12/2015, 12:03

    At night, June 11 as a result of the shelling in the area Gorlovka seriously injured only working penstock channel Seversky Donets - Donbass. Now the water supply channel is not possible. This was reported in the press service of the company "Water of Donbass" .
    News Release at 12.00 on "Public Radio"

    Also threatened with arrest of Donetsk, and Red Army Velikoanadolskiy filtering stations from which the water supply of cities Avdeevka, Donetsk and partially Yasinovataya, Volnovaha, Ugledar, Dokuchaevsk, Dobropole, Dimitrov, Selidovo, Ukrainian, and nearby villages.
    In addition to the territory of the shells hit Gorlovskij filtration plant №2, causing the station completely de-energized - was damaged power line and switchgear. Without water Gorlovka and Dzerzhinsk. Continue reading.

    SobiNewsRussia wrote:Video found on the body of the murdered Russian occupant in Marinka
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    Post  PapaDragon Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:15 pm

    Flagship Victory wrote:..........................................................
    .................. The US bombed the heck out of Serbia to free Kosovo from Serbian troops. If the US sees an injustice, the US will do something about it, and openly at that.


    All I'm going to say is you might want to read up on that some more.... No
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    Post  Werewolf Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:18 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Flagship Victory wrote:..........................................................
    .................. The US bombed the heck out of Serbia to free Kosovo from Serbian troops. If the US sees an injustice, the US will do something about it, and openly at that.


    All I'm going to say is you might want to read up on that some more....  No

    What he said is correct from the eyes of an american.

    They also freed USA from flthy Indians, because according to europeans they belong to Asia.
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    Post  higurashihougi Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:19 pm

    So basically the United States and European Union are not "foreign power" ? affraid affraid

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #15 - Page 24 11062147_489748904510363_6377255431171388796_n
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    Post  PapaDragon Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:20 pm

    higurashihougi wrote:S3xual intercouse btw an Ukie BMP-2 and an Ukie T-64 pwnd pwnd

    Dunno whether pornographic pics of armoured vehicle violated the forum's rules pwnd pwnd

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #15 - Page 24 10433780_1653401868224207_1510318332006750567_n

    With that ukrop on top does it count as threesome?
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    Post  PapaDragon Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:22 pm


    Western Creditors Are Outraged at Ukraine's Default Threat

    Statement released by Ukraine’s western creditors condemns Kiev for threatening default and for refusing to negotiate seriously

    Alexander Mercouris

    http://russia-insider.com/en/business/western-creditors-outraged-ukraines-default-threat/ri7947

    Ukraine’s Western creditors have responded angrily to Ukraine’s threat to default.

    According to the Financial Times ( http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ae0cb6fa-1029-11e5-bd70-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3cmSLcwK1 ) they have issued a statement, which reads in part:

       “Minister Jaresko has been in possession of a detailed IMF-compliant solution from the Bond Committee for over a month. We are deeply concerned about the stance the minister is taking, which is not in the interests of Ukraine. We are ready and willing to start talks at any time.”

    According to the Financial Times “a person close to the situation said investors rejected the idea that their proposal would deplete reserves and put the country in crisis, saying that to do so would neither be right nor make sense, as it would destroy their investment.”

    It appears that the situation is in total deadlock with the talks close to breaking down and both sides accusing the other of intransigence.


    It is difficult to believe that Ukraine’s Western creditors actually want the country to default, though as we have discussed before, it probably makes more sense for them to allow this than to agree to the demands Ukraine is making. If Ukraine were prepared to negotiate seriously by moderating its demands, it is likely that some sort of deal could be stitched together.

    It seems the Western creditors are coming up against the same problem the Russians repeatedly encounter in their dealings with Kiev and which previously confounded Yanukovych — the Maidan movement does not negotiate but makes maximalist demands, in this case essentially for a debt write-off — that they are politically incapable of retreating from. Rather than retreat it is easier for them politically to let the whole house burn down.

    Unlike Greece a settlement of Ukraine’s debts ought not to be difficult. Ukraine is intrinsically a rich country.  It should certainly be able to pay its debts, which are not especially large, if the economy were well-managed and if a serious attempt were made to settle the political conflicts with Russia and with the people of the Donbass that are at the root of the present crisis.

    The problem is that the government of Ukraine is wholly focused not on stabilising the economy but on “winning” its political conflicts with Russia and with those it calls “the separatists” in the Donbass. It assumes everyone else — be they Western governments or Western creditors — are simply there to help it do so.  

    As for Ukraine’s debts or its economy or the economic welfare of Ukraine’s people, they can be sacrificed to achieve the overriding objective of a “victorious” monocultural unitary Ukraine.

    It is this intransigent way of thinking that is pushing Ukraine towards default, just as it is what is behind the war in the Donbass.
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    Post  PapaDragon Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:25 pm

    Ukraine Bonds Plunge After American Finance Minister Escalates Default Threat

    Meanwhile big payments on its debt are coming due

    (Zero Hedge)

    http://russia-insider.com/en/ukraine-bonds-plunge-after-american-finmin-escalates-default-threat/ri7962

    This article originally appeared at Zero Hedge ( http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-11/ukraine-bonds-plunge-after-american-finmin-escalates-default-threat )

    In the last 3 days, Ukraine’s short-term bond prices have crashed 9%.

    Specifically the 2017s are down 3.5 points today alone following Ukraine’s (American) finance minister threats yesterday in Washington that it will default on its debt unless creditors (which include both Russia and the US taxpayer) acquiesce to their demands for more aid (more debt).

    As Bloomberg reports ( http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-11/ukraine-bonds-drop-as-jaresko-said-to-seek-40-principal-cut-iary9dc1 ) , the country will stop making payments on its debt if talks don’t make progress, Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko told reporters in Washington Wednesday. Bondholders are “deeply concerned” about Jaresko’s stance, a creditor group led by Franklin Templeton said in a statement today.

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #15 - Page 24 20150611_ukr_0

    The plunge

    The comments suggest a two-month impasse in negotiations is only hardening as coupon payments come due this month and a $500 million bond matures in September. As Bloomberg goes on to note:

       “The positions of Ukraine and creditors are far-far away,” Gintaras Shlizhyus, a Vienna-based strategist at Raiffeisen Bank International AG, said by phone Thursday. “That makes me believe that we are talking about the prolongation of talks maybe even beyond September.”

       Ukraine has two coupon payments due on sovereign bonds next week, including $75 million it owes by June 20 on a Eurobond that Russia bought from the regime of former President Viktor Yanukovych before he was overthrown in February 2014.


       Jaresko has told creditors that a 40 percent principal writedown is needed to meet the objectives the IMF has set for the restructuring, a person familiar with the talks said on Thursday.

    The minister has consistently said that bondholders must accept a writedown on principal as well as coupon cuts and maturity extensions, yet hasn’t previously revealed the details of her proposal.

       “This puts the value of Ukrainian bonds at around 45, way below market levels,” Regis Chatellier, a London-based director of emerging-market credit strategy at Societe Generale SA, said by e-mail. “The hope for no haircut on Ukraine debt is/was unrealistic from the point of view of debt sustainability.”

       The creditor group’s proposal includes extending maturities by as much as 10 years, temporarily lowering coupons and amortizing principal payments over seven years starting 2019, a person familiar with the proposal told Bloomberg last month.

       Jaresko has rejected the offer on the grounds that it assumes Ukraine can make payments out of its reserves, something it says is illegal.

       “Minister Jaresko has been in possession of a detailed IMF-compliant solution from the bond committee for over a month,” the committee said today. “We are ready and willing to start talks at any time.”

    Finally, the hurdles continue Greek-like:

       Ukraine must pass three bills relating to its IMF program before it can call a board meeting with the IMF to unlock the next tranche of a $17.5 billion loan from the Washignton-based lender, Jaresko said yesterday.

       Two laws relate to independence and structure of the central bank, while the third relates to improvements in the ability of the state oil and gas monopoly to collect receivables, she said.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:33 pm

    Vann7 wrote:If far better for me.. that Russia collapse Ukraine economy and disband the entire nation ,that
    way when no longer Ukrainians have any hope and feel hungry ,that they will embrace Russia
    restoring order.

    I wouldn't count on that. Turkey and Saudi Arabia sure have collapsed Syria's economy after 4 years of brutal all out war, but they cannot collapse Syrian people's will to fight. Same thing with Ukraine. Even if Ukraine's economy completely collapse like Syria's economy did, which is highly unlikely given the huge amounts of money injection from IMF, the US, the EU, Japan etc., the will of the Ukrainian people to fight would not collapse because Poroshenko says Russia is invading Ukraine. The will of a nation to fight a foreign invasion is not to be underestimated, ever.


    Last edited by Flagship Victory on Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:40 pm; edited 2 times in total
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    Post  PapaDragon Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:37 pm

    Flagship Victory wrote:
    Vann7 wrote:
    Flagship Victory wrote:If far better for me.. that Russia collapse Ukraine economy and disband the entire nation ,that
    way when no longer Ukrainians have any hope and feel hungry ,that they will embrace Russia
    restoring order.

    I wouldn't count on that. Turkey and Saudi Arabia sure have collapsed Syria's economy after 4 years of brutal all out war, but they cannot collapse Syrian people's will to fight. Same thing with Ukraine. Even if Ukraine's economy completely collapse like Syria's economy did, which is highly unlikely given the huge amounts of money injection from IMF, the US, the EU, Japan etc., the will of the Ukrainian people to fight would not collapse because Poroshenko says Russia is invading Ukraine.

    All the more reason to stay on the bench and let Ukraine bury itself into the ground on their own...
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    Post  Flagship Victory Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:39 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:All the more reason to stay on the bench and let Ukraine bury itself into the ground on their own...

    At what cost? Even if hundreds of thousands of people die in Donbas, the war will not stop just like in Syria. If Russia thinks such a cost is acceptable, then I have no problem with that. But such a cost would NOT be acceptable in my country. At the end of the day, it depends on what you want to achive, and at what cost you are willing to do to achieve that. You know, Russia could have sent reinforcements and stopped this whole Maidan thing back in 2013 with minimal cost, which is what my country would have done if it were Russia. There is also another option, that is, turning a blind eye like what the world does with Yemen.
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    Post  PapaDragon Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:50 pm

    Flagship Victory wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:All the more reason to stay on the bench and let Ukraine bury itself into the ground on their own...

    At what cost? Even if hundreds of thousands of people die in Donbas, the war will not stop just like in Syria. If Russia thinks such a cost is acceptable, then I have no problem with that. But such a cost would NOT be acceptable in my country. At the end of the day, it depends on what you want to achive, and at what cost you are willing to do to achieve that. You know, Russia could have sent reinforcements and stopped this whole Maidan thing back in 2013 with minimal cost, which is what my country would have done if it were Russia. There is also another option, that is, turning a blind eye like what the world does with Yemen.

    And that country would be...?
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    Post  PapaDragon Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:52 pm

    EU Volunteers in Donbass Fighting for a Noble Cause – German Media

    While there are no Russian troops fighting in eastern Ukraine, one can still find many volunteers from Europe fighting alongside the pro-independence militia in Donbass, a German newspaper wrote on Thursday.


    http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150612/1023272080.html

    Branded as "mercenaries" in the West, these people are getting a meager 340 euros a month for putting their life on the line, but their numbers are still growing every day.

    "What we are doing here is our way of fighting the EU and NATO," a Slovak volunteer told DWN. Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said the volunteers were using whatever weapons they managed to obtain during combat.

    Czech and Slovak volunteers fighting in Donbass on the side of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic have announced the formation of a joint Czech-Slovak fighting unit, a statement on the Slovak Facebook page of the 'International Brigade 15' has announced.

    Sometimes they have to make use of antiquated Nagant six-shooters and WW2-era Mosin rifles.

    "There is not a single Russian trooper in our unit. Political and moral support is all we are getting from Russia. And humanitarian assistance too, which is now even more important than arms."

    Meanwhile, Slovakia’s Foreign Ministry blamed what it called "adventurers, acting on their own" for "destabilizing the situation in eastern Ukraine, undermining diplomatic efforts [to end the war] and damaging the foreign policy interests of Slovakia."

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    Post  Flagship Victory Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:53 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Flagship Victory wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:All the more reason to stay on the bench and let Ukraine bury itself into the ground on their own...

    At what cost? Even if hundreds of thousands of people die in Donbas, the war will not stop just like in Syria. If Russia thinks such a cost is acceptable, then I have no problem with that. But such a cost would NOT be acceptable in my country. At the end of the day, it depends on what you want to achive, and at what cost you are willing to do to achieve that. You know, Russia could have sent reinforcements and stopped this whole Maidan thing back in 2013 with minimal cost, which is what my country would have done if it were Russia. There is also another option, that is, turning a blind eye like what the world does with Yemen.

    And that country would be...?

    the true north strong and free Very Happy


    Last edited by Flagship Victory on Fri Jun 12, 2015 6:34 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  whir Fri Jun 12, 2015 3:40 pm

    ZIK Телеканал wrote:Merchants from Kiev subway requires a meeting with Klitschko

    DickVonDyke wrote:Irish MEP Luke Flanagan Explains Why He Voted Against The EU Resolution Condemning Russia
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    Post  ExBeobachter1987 Fri Jun 12, 2015 3:54 pm

    Flagship Victory wrote:You know, Russia could have sent reinforcements and stopped this whole Maidan thing back in 2013 with minimal cost, which is what my country would have done if it were Russia.

    You are underestimating the political costs of such a move. The West would have whined as much as it did after Crimea.

    Flagship Victory wrote:There is also another option, that is, turning a blind eye like what the world does with Yemen.

    Not an option because Ukraine borders Russia. It has to be dealt with.
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    Post  gregoire Fri Jun 12, 2015 4:27 pm

    Flagship Victory wrote:
    Vann7 wrote:If far better for me.. that Russia collapse Ukraine economy and disband the entire nation ,that
    way when no longer Ukrainians have any hope and feel hungry ,that they will embrace Russia
    restoring order.

    I wouldn't count on that. Turkey and Saudi Arabia sure have collapsed Syria's economy after 4 years of brutal all out war, but they cannot collapse Syrian people's will to fight. Same thing with Ukraine. Even if Ukraine's economy completely collapse like Syria's economy did, which is highly unlikely given the huge amounts of money injection from IMF, the US, the EU, Japan etc., the will of the Ukrainian people to fight would not collapse because Poroshenko says Russia is invading Ukraine. The will of a nation to fight a foreign invasion is not to be underestimated, ever.



    If this was true the war in Donbass would have been won a long time ago. The ones doing the fighting are no longer "just the locals". I even suspect it never has been.
    I don't care much for Ukrainian (in and around Kiev that is) people. They murder their own brethren and call it a foreign invasion. Week after week their is another stupidity, atrocity, hate filled action. They have what they wanted and with that they will get what they deserve entirely by their own hands.
    You are just underwriting that there really is a russian invasion but up until this very minute there is not a shred of proof. Nothing. Syria is not only under attack by the west but also by the other islam-centric countries that want to feast of it corps. There is no comparison.
    In short; there is no invasion. Ukraine is like a fat kid hitting his own face so it's elder brother can go and steal the other kids bike for revenge. Even if it doesn't collapse, it is still dying.
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    Post  PapaDragon Fri Jun 12, 2015 4:43 pm

    That's some ego right there  Suspect


    Kiev Frothing at the Mouth After Anti-Nazi Legislation Passes US House

    Ukraine’s Ministry of Interior wants US Intelligence to keep an eye on Rep. John Conyers after he successfully introduced an amendment banning the training of neo-Nazis groups in Ukraine

    http://russia-insider.com/en/kiev-frothing-mouth-after-anti-nazi-legislation-passes-us-house/ri7968

    Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Anton Gerashchenko advised U.S. intelligence agencies to “pay attention” to U.S. Congressman John Conyers, who passed an amendment banning the training of Azov Battalion, according to a report in Korrespondent.  ( http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/politics/3526739-heraschenko-razvedke-ssha-nuzhno-zaniatsia-senatorom-obvynyvshym-azov-v-natsyzme )

    Gerashchenko claims that the House vote came just a day before the anniversary of the “liberation” of Mariupol by Azov Battalion. Writing on Facebook, he also suggested that Conyers should meet with rebel leaders Motorola and Givi — apparently because they are the “real” Nazis.
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    Post  PapaDragon Fri Jun 12, 2015 4:46 pm


    What Will Happen If (When) Ukraine Defaults?


    Scaremongers say it will be a disaster for Ukrainians with:

       low economic growth for over a decade
       a possible banking crisis
       layoffs
       low investments and no access to foreign capital

    More reasonable people are saying all of that is already happening. The only new thing is going to be:

       “Now some guys in New York will feel what the man on the street has for three to four months already”


    Graham Stack

    http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/what-will-happen-if-when-ukraine-defaults/ri7969

    This article originally appeared at Business New Europe

    As Ukraine edges closer to the world’s first unilateral sovereign default since Argentina’s in 2001, analysts are grappling withe the question of how this might impact on the former Soviet republics as its strives for deeper integration with the EU and the West.

    Ukraine is moving closer to defaulting on $23bn of sovereign debt owed to bondholders, with Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko telling journalists during a last-minute visit to Washington DC on June 10 that if bondholders failed to agree with Ukraine’s terms, “I’d have to use other tools to reduce the pressure on the balance of payments. A moratorium [on payments to bondholders].”

    “I don’t think we have that much time,” Jaresko added.

    According to debt analyst Aleksander Paraschiy of Concorde Capital in Kyiv, Ukraine could “use the moratorium during the next 10 days”. The first opportunity arises on June 17, when the country is due to pay a $39mn coupon on a $1.25bn Eurobond due in 2016, and then on June 20 when Ukraine has to pay $75mn on a $3.0bn Eurobond held by Russia.

    What will happen if Ukraine does what was until recently unthinkable, and becomes the first country since Argentina in 2001 to declare a unilateral moratorium on payments?

    Jaresko herself argues that Ukrainians have nothing to fear. In a long interview in Zerkalo Nedeli on June 6, the US-born minister seemed to be preparing the ground for a default. “To be honest, it [default] will not effect Ukrainians…The law we passed on the moratorium on payments will have one effect: forex will stay in the country, helping to reduce pressure on the balance of payments,” Jaresko said. “We own no property abroad [that could be confiscated].”

    In Argentina’s footsteps

    Some analysts fear that despite these assurances, a default will unleash mayhem on Ukraine’s already comatose financial system.

    “The truth is that a unilateral moratorium on foreign debt payments will undoubtedly have both immediate and long-term effects on all Ukraine’s residents, companies and households alike,” argues Oleksiy Andriychenko, an analyst at the Art Capital brokerage.

    “Right after the default, the understanding that Ukraine’s access to capital markets can be closed for a long period of time will lower expectations of Ukraine’s economic growth among investors, local banks and companies and even lay people, who still remember the economic hardship at the end of 1990’s after Russia’s default,” he explains. “Ukraine will sink into a period of low economic growth that can last for more than a decade, as evidenced by Argentina’s case.”


    “The population will try save the remainders of its savings by taking them out of banks and buying foreign currency if possible. A true banking crisis might emerge unless the National Bank of Ukraine reacts quickly, allowing the banks to limit access to deposits. Ukrainians will be forced to cut consumption, some will lose jobs,” Andriychenko continues.

    “Since Ukraine will be shunned from foreign capital markets, financing the rising needs of state and local budgets will be done through hryvnia emission with direct consequences for inflation and real economic growth. Not only will the state be shunned from the capital markets, but also Ukrainian corporates, which will undoubtedly hurt their ability to invest, pay high salaries, and carry out any expansion plans,” he says.

    ‘Internal default’

    Andriychenko’s gloomy analysis echoes that of billionaire philanthropist George Soros, who warned in January in an international plea for financial help for Ukraine that, “a default would have disastrous consequences.”

    But Nick Piazza, CEO of SP Advisors, argues that since then, Ukraine has in fact already gone through an “internal default”, in the form of steep devaluation in February only stemmed by the imposition of stringent capital controls.

    “Default happened for most Ukrainians in February. Everyone is already used to it. Now some guys in New York will feel what the man on the street has for three to four months already,” he says.

    “Everyone that can is already dollarised. Banks aren’t lending, there is no [foreign direct investment]. What else can happen? I’m not saying [it would be] nothing, but it won’t be colossal. A bigger event for forex would be a bad harvest, or attack on Mariupol – that would launch hording again,” Piazza adds.

    Other analysts are closer to Jaresko’s position. According to Aleksander Valchyshen, head of research at Investment Capital Ukraine, the brokerage founded and previously headed by current central bank head Valeriya Gontareva, Ukraine’s tight capital controls have already “proved useful in having an impact on the local market by cooling down domestic demand for USD cash”.

    According to Valchyshen, Ukraine has in recent months received enough foreign funding to create an airbag against the shock of default. “All these [international fundraising] efforts since March 2015 are producing a net FX inflow, while previously there was a net outflow of FX,” he says.

    Valchyshen argues that whatever the outcome, default will be a better deal for Ukraine than ploughing on with unsustainable levels of debt. “Jaresko and the IMF’s call to reduce debt nominal has its logic – to produce a sustainable public debt for an economy that very badly needs growth not burdened by debt of 100% of GDP,” he says.

    “Without that nominal reduction, Ukraine’s economy risks entering an untested period when the public debt level is projected to be in the 95-105% range,” he adds.
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    Post  Flagship Victory Fri Jun 12, 2015 6:35 pm

    ExBeobachter1987 wrote:
    Flagship Victory wrote:You know, Russia could have sent reinforcements and stopped this whole Maidan thing back in 2013 with minimal cost, which is what my country would have done if it were Russia.

    You are underestimating the political costs of such a move. The West would have whined as much as it did after Crimea.
    would

    At least Ukraine today would have been democratic and free. There would have been no ethnic cleaning.
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    Post  Neutrality Fri Jun 12, 2015 7:29 pm

    Another fuel dump just caught fire in Kiev.
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    Post  whir Fri Jun 12, 2015 7:44 pm

    Bloomberg wrote:Ukraine's Neo-Nazis Won't Get U.S. Money
    JUN 12, 2015 10:41 AM EDT

    It's easy to see why Representative John Conyers, a Michigan Democrat, would have a problem with the military unit commanded by Ukrainian legislator Andriy Biletsky: Conyers is a founding member of the Congressional Black Caucus, Biletsky is a white supremacist.

    The House of Representatives has unanimously approved an amendment to the U.S. military budget, proposed by Conyers and Florida Republican Ted Yoho, banning support and training for "the Ukrainian neo-Nazi paramilitary militia 'Azov Battalion.'" Azov was set up in May 2014 to fight pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. Here's how the group's Facebook page describes the circumstances:

    In the first weeks after the Putin invasion of Donbass began, the authorities and law enforcers were confused and demoralized. Nationalists had to take initiative. The Patriot of Ukraine organization and allied unofficial groups of right-wing youth rallied around Andriy Biletsky and challenged the separatists.

    By now, though, the Azov Battalion has become a regiment of the Ukrainian National Guard and enjoys the enthusiastic support of Interior Minister Arsen Avakov. Continue reading.

    Yahoo wrote:Educated Ukrainians flee east Ukraine for new lives in Kiev
    Associated Press By NATALIYA VASILYEVA June 11, 2015 4:32 AM

    KIEV, Ukraine (AP) — Alesya Bolot worked for a contemporary arts foundation that converted an abandoned factory into a mecca for young and bright people with daring ideas. Vibrant and cosmopolitan, the 27-year-old would not look out of place in a gallery in New York.

    She was at the forefront of the avant-garde arts scene in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk when a pro-Russian insurgency took over and upended her life. When a rebel-controlled local television station portrayed creative people like her as the enemy, she decided it was time to flee.

    "Everything we did ran counter to their ideology," she says, "the fact that we worked with foreign artists, the fact that we advocated for a plurality of opinions."

    Bolot arrived in the capital Kiev a year ago with only a backpack, not planning a long-term stay. But she decided to remain after she was told she was on the wanted list of the self-styled Donetsk People's Republic, for alleged subversive activity. A year on, the Izolyatsia contemporary arts center runs a much smaller gallery in Kiev.

    More than 2.2 million people have fled their homes in eastern Ukraine since the war between government forces and Russia-backed separatists began in April last year, according to the United Nations, some to neighboring Russia, but about 1.3 million to Ukrainian regions under government control.

    Educated, middle-class people like Bolot, whose arts center was turned into a rebel training camp and prison, represent a big chunk of those who opt for Ukraine-controlled areas, especially the capital — a serious brain drain for Ukraine's east. There are so many of them in Kiev, the displaced say, that it often feels like their city has moved with them. Continue reading.

    Spiegel via Google Translate wrote:Brief-Diplomatie: Putin schrieb Altkanzler Kohl wegen der Ukraine-Krise
    Letter Diplomacy: Putin wrote former Chancellor Kohl for the Ukraine crisis
    Friday, 06/12/2015 - 14:24 clock

    Post for the former Chancellor: After SPIEGEL information Helmut Kohl has received several letters from Vladimir Putin recently. Apparently hoping the president, carbon could be used in the Ukraine-Russia crisis

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has to SPIEGEL information in recent months repeatedly writing to former chancellor Helmut Kohl turned (CDU). With his letter, Putin wanted to achieve clear that carbon in the Ukraine crisis put in a kind word for Russia. The office of Helmut Kohl wanted the process neither confirm nor deny. Take this "no position", it said. (This message comes from the mirror. The new mirror can be found here .)

    Kohl's word just in foreign policy issues in the Union are still weight. Any public statement Kohl would benefit Putin, as Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) drives a hard line against Russia.
    Finally, the West, Russia had at Schloss Elmau on the G7 summit threatened additional sanctions , it should lead to a further escalation in the Ukraine. Merkel concluded this from a speedy return Putin to the group of leading industrial nations.

    The 85-year-old former chancellor had warned in the past repeatedly not to let the conversation thread to tear Russia. "For a stable European security order the inclusion of Russia is existential," Kohl wrote in his book "Out of concern for Europe", which was released last November.

    Cabbage representing in the opinion that the West has a complicity in the Ukraine crisis. "On the behavior of Russia and the situation in Ukraine, the West can not remain silent, of course, but also the West could behave more intelligent", they say. "Here are made mistakes on both sides and sensibilities were obviously not sufficiently addressed."

    After hip replacement surgery and another, necessary intervention carbon is a few weeks ago at the University Hospital Heidelberg. Recently there have been reports, his health was serious , the former chancellor of the Office pointed out, however, he was doing "well under the circumstances." Kohl will go after the hospital stay in the rehab. Continue reading.

    International Business Times wrote:Children With Weapons Seen At Pro-Russian Roadblock Near Shyrokyne, Eastern Ukraine
    By Christopher Harress on June 12 2015 7:16 AM EDT

    Children have been seen holding weapons at a pro-Russian rebel roadblock near the embattled village of Shyrokyne, according to independent monitors observing the war in eastern Ukraine.

    The revelation, which was announced by Michael Biocurkiw, a spokesperson for the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), during a press conference in Kiev late on Thursday evening, is symbolic of a conflict where rules, ceasefires and conventions have been broken on a daily basis, and where recent fighting between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian rebels has reached levels not seen since the Minsk II peace deal was signed in February this year.

    "During the most recent visit [to Shyrokyne], our monitors did spot what appeared to be underage children at that checkpoint,” said Biocurkiw. “This is the second time in recent times that we've seen children, and some of them [were] with arms.

    "We're very concerned about observing this type of development – any time when children are involved in a conflict is unacceptable," he added.

    Shyrokyne, which is only 10 miles from the strategic port town of Mariupol on Ukraine’s southern coast, has been the scene of deadly fighting for months. On Thursday morning, one soldier was killed and two injured in battles near the village. Continue reading.

    New Haven Register wrote:Another view: West must consider Russia, after Putin
    By Sergei Guriev POSTED: 06/12/15, 12:06 PM EDT | UPDATED: 19 MINS AGO

    Last year, thanks to its aggression in Ukraine, Russia changed in many important ways. But one crucial transformation has gone largely unnoticed: Long-term thinking has completely disappeared, and the Russian regime no longer talks about the future.

    Russian leaders’ discourse centers on the standoff with Ukraine and the West (and their “puppets” within Russia) and references to the heroic past (mostly to World War II). The regime is now fully focused on its own survival.

    This has not always been the case. In 2000, Vladimir Putin went to the Kremlin with a 10-year “Gref program” that included a vision of Russia as an open and modern country. His first presidential term implemented parts of this program. Long-term development strategies — mostly based on this vision — were discussed and updated until 2012.

    Even when Putin returned as president that year, he put together a set of programmatic op-eds in Russian newspapers outlining long-term plans on the economy, social policy, governance, federalism and foreign policy.

    He converted these into a number of presidential decrees that he signed on his first day in office. These decrees provided transparent targets that he promised to achieve by 2018.

    By now it is clear — and even publicly acknowledged by Putin himself — that these decrees will not be carried out. What alternative future does Russia’s president propose to his citizens? There is no answer. No long-term policy planning for Russia’s future is occurring. Previously, Russia took pride in moving from one-year to three-year budgets.

    This is no more: The Kremlin has no credible financial plan beyond 2016 except for hoping for oil prices to recover. Its foreign policy doctrine centers also on regime survival.

    Around the world, Russia fiercely defends the sovereign right of non-democratic governments to stay in power indefinitely. Continue reading.

    Graham Phillips wrote:Донецк Аэропорт Сегодня - 14:00 (МСК) / Donetsk Airport Today 12:00 (BST)

    Лента Новостей wrote:Avdeevka. "Militia" shelling civilian houses. Fact. 06/12/2015
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    Post  whir Fri Jun 12, 2015 9:16 pm

    News-Front wrote:Fight in the Donetsk airport 12/06/2015. OBTGr "Somalia" [18+]

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