The Situation in the Ukraine. #18

Ispan wrote:

auslander wrote:

This is going to be a long war.

I concur, war will likely not end in the battlefields, but with the collapse of the Ukranian home front. We have not yet reached a point of collapse like Russia in 1917 or Germany in 1918.

Auslander, I cannot write PM yet, so I don't know how to contact you (perhaps you can drop me a note at my blog?) , so I will write you an open letter:

Auslander, highest respect to you. I now I am certain you are the guy whose testimony appeared in the Saker blog, and I can guess at why you are not contributing there anymore. The owner of the blog is not much of a military analyst and he got angry that I corrected him because he completely misunderstood what I wrote, so that put an end to any hopes of  collaboration with him

You know, because the author writes in English, I had confused you with some other contributor, a militiaman that goes by the name of Juan. Only later realized you were an entirely different person.

I know from some other forum of some other American former military that has married a Crimean woman , but he lives in Simferopol and I lost touch with him and anyway, would never have the chance to meet with him. I am going with the wife to Crimea tomorrow to see her family and we will be staying for 3 weeks. From what you wrote I know you live somewhere in the coast. I cannot send you a PM message, so I am asking you if you wish to meet if we are not far away and you have the time. It's not just that I would like to talk to you, but also I think I might help someway, as I recall, you were involved in aiding the refugees. I would like to use my capital in other forum to make a fundraiser drive for the people of Novorussia. Even is only a little sum, everything counts. People react better to these iniatives and donate when they know who is delivering the goods and know the money is going to aid the people. I know it would be better to just contact Borish Rozhin and the Cassad Center, but unfortunately I do not know Russian and Sevastopol is far away. I also guess he is very busy with better things to do to give interviews or bother meeting some fanboy.


I do not want to be intrusive. And I completely understand your motives for privacy. And like I said, I can't really think of why you would want to meet a fanboy from a forum. Just I want to help in some other capacity than being a keyboard warrior, and I think your story is wonderful and inspiring against the tragedy of war.

Where will you be staying in Krimu?

auslander wrote:[qWhere will you be staying in Krimu?

To Auslander:

I am staying in Feodosiya, actually in the town Primorsky, about 10 km east , where the shipyard is.
As I don't know Russian and I don't own a car, I am not allowed to go out unescorted, and my wife is pregnant so we are staying in the village, but if you make it to Feodosiya I can surely persuade the wife to come to town to have a chat and some beers with you. If you drive, then is easier still!

If it is far away from you, I understand if you do not want to travel.

Ispan wrote:

auslander wrote:[qWhere will you be staying in Krimu?

To Auslander:

I am staying in Feodosiya, actually in the town Primorsky, about 10 km east , where the shipyard is.
As I don't know Russian and I don't own a car, I am not allowed to go out unescorted, and my wife is pregnant so we are staying in the village, but if you make it to Feodosiya I can surely persuade the wife to come to town to have a chat and some beers with you. If you drive, then is easier still!

If it is far away from you, I understand if you do not want to travel.

We live in Sevastopol, Feodosya is a very long drive for us and it would be difficult for us to take the time. It is a pity, it would be nice to meet you.

I do not know how long you have to be a member to send a PM but perhaps in this case the mods can make an exception if that amount of time has not already passed.

To Auslander:

EDIT: I just realized the PM option has been activated, so sending you a PM now

Sorry for hijacking the tread.


Back to the military situation: one thing that perplexes me of this war is the sparse use of armor even when both sides have hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles. I suppose tanks are kept in reserve for the big push or a counterattack to plug a breach, so they are used in small packets or singly in the current positional warfare.

Just always found odd that in the winter offensive of February the Novorussians attacked only with infantry and artillery, and the strongest Ukranian counterattack to relieve the Debaltsevo pocket involved only a single company of tanks.

Really strange. Food for thought.

All of this is from The Interpreter mag, which as far as I know is pro-Kiev government


Ukrainian MP Mikhail Lano, Involved In Recent Controversy With Right Sector, Reportedly Flees Country

Today there are reports that Lano has fled across Ukraine's border. TSN.UA, citing Channel 5, says Lano crossed the southeast border today (the border with Russia). The Channel 5 journalist cited in the article, however, says Lano escaped through the southwest border, which would probably place Lano in the Transnistria region of Moldova, an unrecognized breakaway region of the country which is occupied by Russian soldiers. Either way, Channel 5 reports that Lano is no longer in Ukraine.

UA Press and several other local outlets are also carrying the news.

Lano recently tried to escape Ukraine but was reportedly turned back at the border. At the time he said that he had no intention of fleeing.

The shootout between Right Sector and the police has raised many questions about all of the participants in the incident. Was Right Sector operating as vigilantes, or are they engaged in the same black market trade that they accuse Lano of running and this was a business dispute? Can Right Sector be trusted? How much power do oligarchs like Lano who have ties to the former government really wield? Are the police working for Lano? We've investigated some of these questions in a separate analysis:

(didn't give the analysis)

RPG Fired At Shop Near Mukachevo
14:08 (GMT)

The Zakarpattia regional branch of the Interior Ministry reports that an RPG was fired at a shop in in the village of Zaluzhye, near Mukachevo, last night.



The police say that they received a report from a security guard at the Ryba (fish) shop last night, telling them that an unidentified individual had damaged the shops windows.

At the scene, investigators found the tail-piece of an RPG round:



No-one was harmed by the attack. Police have now opened a criminal investigation into the incident.

Tensions remain high in the Mukachevo area after Pravyi Sektor (Right Sector) members opened fire on security guards for local MP Mikhail Lanio and police on July 11.

The new governor of Zakarpattia, Hennadyi Moskal, who was brought in to take control of the situation, said this week that 13 Pravyi Sektor members are still on the loose in the forests of the region.

-- Pierre Vaux

Published in Press-Stream Ukraine Live Day 522 in Publication Ukraine Liveblogs

http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-live-day-522-rpg-or-mortar-attack-on-kiev-bank-last-night/

Do not know when photos was taken. Says it was posted 6 hours ago.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=fb8_1437746481


Ukraine Army and US Advisers Heading to Mukachevo ATO in Transcarpathian Peoples Republic

Part of channel(s): Ukraine (current event)

Ukraine Army and US pay masters head to Mukachevo ATO in Transcarpathian Peoples Republic to create fear amongst local population. They look set to create another warzone on the border of the European Union.

another photo

Gregor Martin ‏@Guderian_Xaba 7h7 hours ago

Gregor Martin retweeted Banderenko

Ukr army convoy in #Mukachevo

Gregor Martin added,
Banderenko @banderenko
Колонна ВСУ.



and another

Hypocrisy....

Ukraine: US Ambassador Pyatt condemns Right Sector Mukachevo attack

http://www.watsupeurope.com/news/ukraine-us-ambassador-pyatt-condemns-right-sector-mukachevo-attack/

Nikolai Holmov ‏@OdessaBlogger Jul 21

Another proposed amnesty this time for those responsible death & injury in Mukachevo: http://w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/webproc4_1?pf3511=56146 ….- Rule of law begins when here?

Sergey Bobkov ‏@sbobkov 5h5 hours ago

Antisemitic anti-government rally in #Lvov today.




Nadia ‏@NadezhdaAle Jul 22

"no jews in goverment" #Lvov #Ukraine #antisemitism



1,800 troops from 18 states: NATO launches biggest ever drill in Ukraine
Published time: 20 Jul, 2015 22:16

NATO has brought together 1,800 troops from 18 countries in block’s biggest ever exercise on Ukrainian soil. Moscow has warned that the wargames may undermine peace process in eastern Ukraine.

The US-led exercises, which see annual Saber Guardian and Rapid Trident drills combined, were launched on Monday near the city of Lvov in western Ukraine and are scheduled to continue until the end of July.

http://www.rt.com/news/310305-ukraine-nato-military-exercise/

see link for article

Ispan wrote:To Auslander:

EDIT: I just realized the PM option has been activated, so sending you a PM now

Sorry for hijacking the tread.


Back to the military situation: one thing that perplexes me of this war is the sparse use of armor even when both sides have hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles. I suppose tanks are kept in reserve for the big push or a counterattack to plug a breach, so they are used in small packets or singly in the current positional warfare.

Just always found odd that in the winter offensive of February the Novorussians attacked only with infantry and artillery, and the strongest Ukranian counterattack to relieve the Debaltsevo pocket involved only a single company of tanks.

Really strange. Food for thought.

Armor doesn't fair well at all when employed in a defensive role. Never has. Due to the prevalence of artillery and the quantities of AT weapons also should help dissuade the large scale use of tanks.

On that note, the larger use of tanks could prohibited somewhat by the lack of experience crews on either side. Both have lead to losses on either side. Most successful usage of armor maybe from the vacationers back in August or February. The NAF has put a lot of effort into churning out good tank crews though.

Ivan the Colorado wrote:
Armor doesn't fair well at all when employed in a defensive role. Never has.

I beg to differ. History shows abundance of examples of what can do well emplaced tanks on the defense. Though I agree that is throwing away the mobility advantage, and rather that as mobile pillboxes armor should always be used in the attack, even on the defensive, but I have only get past the first pages of my Panzer Tactics book.

Due to the prevalence of artillery and the quantities of AT weapons also should help dissuade the large scale use of tanks.

Is really artillery that much of a concern? Tanks can sped quickly through impact zones and shrug off most fragments and you would need close hits by heavy artillery to damage tracks and roadwheels with large splinters.

You are closer to the mark with AT weapons. Apparently the reactive armor is of not use against tandem charge warheads, to the point some tanks got rid of it entirely, but others keep it. but the main AT weapon is the RPG. Antitank guided missiles are scarce, and both sides resorted to use obsolete antitank towed guns Rapira. Weakness of AT defense should invite to bold use of armor. Yet tanks have proven so vulnerable they are being used as self propelled guns, to lob HE shells from a safe distance beyond range of RPGs.


Even if tanks are vulnerable to AT weapons, that also happened in WWII and didn't preclude large scale armor attacks. Armor has always been more effective when used in concentration, no penny packets. To smash through an antitank defense screen you need numbers to overwhelm the AT weapons, some tanks will be lost but the breakthrough will be achieved. Attacking in small groups makes the enemy job easier.

So it is not much a matter of vulnerability of the tanks but on timidity and lack of training by the crews, as follows.

On that note, the larger use of tanks could prohibited somewhat by the lack of experience crews on either side.

Yes, specially on the Novorussian side. But the Ukranians do have a lot of tanks. They parade them up and down in response to crises, but they never engage more of a few.

Most successful usage of armor maybe from the vacationers back in August or February.

I don't believe in the "North Wind" there were never Russian combat units in Ukraine, except perhaps, as commanders and staff at HQ to coordinate the militia attacks during those operations. Instructors on the Russian side of the border and intelligence support, certainly. Advisors and staff, very likely. Special Ops commandos, maybe. Line units, certainly not.

That said, you raise an interesting possibility and one I also thought about. The militia infantry and artillery got the help of Russian tankers to operate their acquired armor, and perhaps artillerists as well. That would be a lot of easier to conceal than sending infantrymen, and not without precedent. The Soviet Union intervention in the Spanish Civil War took the form of pilots and tank crews.

I remember that somebody at MPnet posted a story about people in Donbass seeing a column of tanks and the tankers saying they were from Crimea. That would make a lot of sense. Former Ukranian army regular soldiers joining the militia as volunteers, either on their own or with Russia approval while technically not being Russiansnor compromising any Russian army units.

But I think the Novorussian militias deserve more credit than they are given. It's not just an army of peasants, miners and truck drivers, quite a number of ethnic Russians regular soldiers and police joined the militias, starting with the paratroopers that switched sides and joined the Slavyansk defenders. That would be enough to give the backbone to the militia. Giving credit to the mythical "North wind" in my opinion underestimates the militia and overestimates the Ukrops. The orks were so incompetent that even a ragtag militia could defeat them. Better armies than the Ukranian army of 2014 were routed by savages using ambushes and encirclements.

Ukraine amasses up to 7,000 troops on border with Transdniestria — republic leader
World
July 24, 17:34 UTC+3
Earlier, the head of the Ukrainian State Border Service said that Russia’s military threat was coming from Transdniestria

http://tass.ru/en/world/810608

MOSCOW, July 24. /TASS/. Ukraine concentrates its armed forces and equips firing points on the border with Transdniestria, from 5 to 7 thousand troops are currently deployed there, head of the unrecognized Transdniestrian Moldovan Republic Yevgeny Shevchuk told the Rossiya 24 TV channel on Friday.

"After the events in Ukraine, we feel the pressure of some negative factors. One of them is the concentration of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the National Guard, reinforcement and expansion in the number of Ukrainian frontier guards along the border, additional equipment of engineering constructions, the digging of trenches… Some firing points are equipped along the border, and substantial amounts of troops are being concentrated - according to our estimates, from 5 to 7 thousand are deployed in close proximity to the border with Transdniestria," he said.

On May 21, 2015, Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada denounced the agreement with Russia on transit of the Russian military personnel and cargo via Ukraine’s territory, and on May 29 head of the Ukrainian State Border Service Viktor Nazarenko told Ukraine’s Channel Five that Russia’s military threat was coming from Transdniestria.

Apparently insane Lyashko speaks...

"Poroshenko is turning into Yanukovych," says leader of Ukrainian radicals
World
July 24, 19:06 UTC+3
The lawmaker stressed that it’s important to pass a law on impeachment of the president and on provisional parliamentary investigative commission

http://tass.ru/en/world/810631

He expressed indignation over the fact he was told on Thursday to leave the hall where the National Council for Reforms was holding a session attended by Poroshenko.

"I was forced out of the hall but Poroshenko will be carried out of the Presidential Administration on the forks unless he heeds the people," Lyashko wrote.

He also said that when he asked Poroshenko if he had fulfilled his pre-election promises and had sold Ukraine’s Channel Five TV and other businesses, the president said he had never promised any such things.

That is not antisemitism since those jews are Khazar jews and under the fact that those scum Zionazi jews like Porky and Jezenjewk are using nazis for US behalf yes this scum should be shot on sight, war criminals waging war just like zionazis through out history always were opportunists and used and abused radicals with similiar supremacy garbage believes, but you as a jew victimize yourselfs and let me guess you are white?

a weird protest in Russia..This looks very Euromaidan style to me.. a small protest in Russia by a dozen of so called BOlsehvik "Activist" ,protesting the government financial policies..



What took my attention was the fire torch like devices ,used a lot by Right Sector in
their street shows in kiev.. It also was interesting the repetition of things zombie like and
how they seemed not interested to remotely break anything or use violence. FUll knowing
the consequences of using violence can get them in jail.

New East network
'We like partisan warfare.' Chechens fighting in Ukraine – on both sides

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/24/chechens-fighting-in-ukraine-on-both-sides

The new commander of the Dzhokhar Dudayev battalion since Munayev’s death is Adam Osmayev, a British-educated Chechen who spent two years in jail in Odessa, charged with hatching a plot to assassinate Vladimir Putin. He said the charges were trumped up. He was released from prison late last year and said he was on the frontline “within a day or two”. He is hoping that Ukraine’s government will officially allow foreigners to fight in its army in order to entice Chechens away from fighting in Syria. “People are going from Chechnya to the Middle East out of a sense of hopelessness; if the Ukrainians made the right conditions they would come here instead. Many people go there not from ideology but are brainwashed when they get there,” he said. Another Chechen man who did not want to be named said he was trying to persuade other Chechens, via online forums, not to travel to the Middle East but to come to Ukraine instead. wrote:

I think it's safe to say now that the situation in Mukachevo has pushed the country closer into total anarchy. People already rising up in Lvov, Kiev sending armored carriers to Zakarpatiya. Sooner or later all hell will break lose and Poroshenko won't, in panic, realize what to do or where to begin. Then he and his family will flee the country to some undisclosed location. I honestly have no idea who will be ruling the country and that's exactly why I predict that's when we will witness a total break up of the country into several oblasts. Perhaps even some Western oblasts will try to sneak into neighboring oblasts to expand their territory. So essentially we'll be talking about a total civil war and I think the country will break up into 3 pieces: Western Ukraine, Central Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine (Novorossia today). All 3 will most likely have a different name.

Werewolf wrote:That is not antisemitism since those jews are Khazar jews and under the fact that those scum Zionazi jews like Porky and Jezenjewk are using nazis for US behalf yes this scum should be shot on sight, war criminals waging war just like zionazis through out history always were opportunists and used and abused radicals with similiar supremacy garbage believes, but you as a jew victimize yourselfs and let me guess you are white?

You're asking me if I'm "white"?

My Paternal ancestors originally were Viking (Norse), and my Maternal original ancestors came from the Iberian Peninsula, and yes I have Jewish dna, but not religion. My Jewish ancestry is on my Maternal side: Moroccan, Sephardic, and Ashkenazic, & one thing I am not is anybody's victim and not a "self-victimizer". I am of a lot of ethnicitiies. What does that have to do with anything?

Neutrality wrote:I think it's safe to say now that the situation in Mukachevo has pushed the country closer into total anarchy. People already rising up in Lvov, Kiev sending armored carriers to Zakarpatiya. Sooner or later all hell will break lose and Poroshenko won't, in panic, realize what to do or where to begin. Then he and his family will flee the country to some undisclosed location. I honestly have no idea who will be ruling the country and that's exactly why I predict that's when we will witness a total break up of the country into several oblasts. Perhaps even some Western oblasts will try to sneak into neighboring oblasts to expand their territory. So essentially we'll be talking about a total civil war and I think the country will break up into 3 pieces: Western Ukraine, Central Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine (Novorossia today). All 3 will most likely have a different name.

I agree.

One thing I noticed about Guardian is that all articles that might paint Russia in even remotely positive light or Ukraine in negative routinely have comment section disabled....

Ispan wrote:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:
Armor doesn't fair well at all when employed in a defensive role. Never has.

I beg to differ. History shows abundance of examples of what can do well emplaced tanks on the defense. Though I agree that is throwing away the mobility advantage, and rather that as mobile pillboxes armor should always be used in the attack, even on the defensive, but I have only get past the first pages of my Panzer Tactics book.

Due to the prevalence of artillery and the quantities of AT weapons also should help dissuade the large scale use of tanks.

Is really artillery that much of a concern? Tanks can sped quickly through impact zones and shrug off most fragments and you would need close hits by heavy artillery to damage tracks and roadwheels with large splinters.

You are closer to the mark with AT weapons. Apparently the reactive armor is of not use against tandem charge warheads, to the point some tanks got rid of it entirely, but others keep it. but the main AT weapon is the RPG. Antitank guided missiles are scarce, and both sides resorted to use obsolete antitank towed guns Rapira. Weakness of AT defense should invite to bold use of armor. Yet tanks have proven so vulnerable they are being used as self propelled guns, to lob HE shells from a safe distance beyond range of RPGs.


Even if tanks are vulnerable to AT weapons, that also happened in WWII and didn't preclude large scale armor attacks. Armor has always been more effective when used in concentration, no penny packets. To smash through an antitank defense screen you need numbers to overwhelm the AT weapons, some tanks will be lost but the breakthrough will be achieved. Attacking in small groups makes the enemy job easier.

So it is not much a matter of vulnerability of the tanks but on timidity and lack of training by the crews, as follows.

On that note, the larger use of tanks could prohibited somewhat by the lack of experience crews on either side.

Yes, specially on the Novorussian side. But the Ukranians do have a lot of tanks. They parade them up and down in response to crises, but they never engage more of a few.

Most successful usage of armor maybe from the vacationers back in August or February.

I don't believe in the "North Wind" there were never Russian combat units in Ukraine, except perhaps, as commanders and staff at HQ to coordinate the militia attacks during those operations. Instructors on the Russian side of the border and intelligence support, certainly. Advisors and staff, very likely. Special Ops commandos, maybe. Line units, certainly not.

That said, you raise an interesting possibility and one I also thought about. The militia infantry and artillery got the help of Russian tankers to operate their acquired armor, and perhaps artillerists as well. That would be a lot of easier to conceal than sending infantrymen, and not without precedent. The Soviet Union intervention in the Spanish Civil War took the form of pilots and tank crews.

I remember that somebody at MPnet posted a story about people in Donbass seeing a column of tanks and the tankers saying they were from Crimea. That would make a lot of sense. Former Ukranian army regular soldiers joining the militia as volunteers, either on their own or with Russia approval while technically not being Russiansnor compromising any Russian army units.

But I think the Novorussian militias deserve more credit than they are given. It's not just an army of peasants, miners and truck drivers, quite a number of ethnic Russians regular soldiers and police joined the militias, starting with the paratroopers that switched sides and joined the Slavyansk defenders. That would be enough to give the backbone to the militia. Giving credit to the mythical "North wind" in my opinion underestimates the militia and overestimates the Ukrops. The orks were so incompetent that even a ragtag militia could defeat them. Better armies than the Ukranian army of 2014 were routed by savages using ambushes and encirclements.

Old reply got deleted so I will write up a new one quickly. Thanks to the prevalence of anti-tank weapons and artillery (which quite a few tanks fell victim too), tanks can only be used in offensive operations. Artillery usually strikes from the top and hits the weakest armor of the tank. The Ukrainians liked to through their tanks at every situation as well. They stopped after quite a few tanks were destroyed including their best T-64BMs. While there almost certainly are Russian advisers from spetsnaz operators training the NAF and operating behind enemy lines, to advisers who are commanding the NAF. The North Wind was still conducted a bit too well to be the NAF. Covering over 100 kilometers and easily crushing quite a few well armed Ukrop units within days even without any air support or any proper artillery cover is a bit too suspicious to me.

The defence ministers of Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine signed an agreement on the establishment of a joint brigade in Lvov on Friday


http://en.delfi.lt/central-eastern-europe/defence-ministers-of-lithuania-poland-and-ukraine-sign-brigade-pact.d?id=68568848

According to Lithuanian Minister of National Defence Juozas Olekas, eight Lithuanian army officers are set to leave for Lublin, where the brigade will be headquartered, on Monday. "I cannot say when the first field training event will take place but it should take place shortly," Olekas told BNS. The brigade will be formed following the model of multinational crisis response capabilities – European Union Battle Groups (EU BGs). The LITPOLUKRBRIG is planned to be made up of an international staff, three battalions and special-purpose units. Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine will each assign an infantry battalion, the establishing nations will commit personnel for special-purpose units and the LITPOLUKRBRIG staff. The agreement provides for the participation of the LITPOLUKRBRIG personnel in joint training and exercises and deployment of the brigade or its elements to international operations mandated by the United Nations Security Council, while decision regarding deployment of the LITPOLUKRBRIG to international operations will be made by general consent of all the establishing countries. The LITPOLUKRBRIG HQ will be based in Lublin, Poland. The LITPOLUKRBRIG battalions will be held on standby in their home countries, and deploy in composition of the LITPOLUKRBRIG in case a decision is made to activate the brigade or any of its elements. The Lithuanian contribution to the LITPOLUKRBRIG will be formed from the personnel of the Grand Duchess Birutė Uhlan Battalion. wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:One thing I noticed about Guardian is that all articles that might paint Russia in even remotely positive light or Ukraine in negative routinely have comment section disabled....

Some newspapers (online) do that as well, in the USA.

Well, not about Russia, but in Austin, Tx. news articles about Texas politics.

I'll have to pay more attention to U.S. newspapers' comment section. & see if it pertains to articles that paint Russia in even remotely positive light or Ukraine in negative ...if I read any like that.