The Situation in the Ukraine. #21

TheArmenian wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Here is a scenario that needs thought. Most everybody says that Kiev will never comply with Minsk, so leaving the door open for a resumption of war, which will not be to Kiev's advantage. So, what happens if Kiev fully complies with Minsk. It is not sufficient to say they never will, the implications of such an event need to be considered. For a start it will remove the possibility of liberating the occupied areas of DNR/LNR unless VSN initiate the war, which is against the "cunning plan".....

If (and there is a big "if") Kiev manages to fully comply with Minsk:
That means that the bloodthirsty radicals/fascists/ultranationalists have been sidelined, made to shut up, crushed, eliminated ...
That means that Kiev will have to listen to Donbass
Which means that Kiev will have to listen to Russia
Which means that Porky will have to travel to Moscow and discuss things with Putin (just like Yushenko and Timenchenko did)
Which means that Ukraine (without Crimea) will be back to where things were a few years ago (end of Yushenko term and beginning of Yanukovich's)

There is no "cunning plan" from Russia as you imagine it. Just geopolitics that take into consideration the two situations:
What if Minsk fails?
What if Minsk happens?

I personally do not think Kiev will comply, but I think it good to consider the possibility of them throwing a surprise. But I do think we all get a bit too carried away with what Minsk is and are talking more and more as if it were a "peace treaty" instead of a "ceasefire", which is even less than an armistice. Clearly Kiev complying with Minsk will create problems for Poroshenko as it could be seen as a sort of surrender, but it will create the conditions for a frozen conflict if Donbass does not at some stage attack to regain the occupied cities and territory. To me, a frozen conflict, in terms of the goals set by Donbass for independance from Kiev, will rely on a collapse of Kiev. Sure we all see that Ukraine is a basket case, but I am not inclined to accept that Kiev will collapse just because it looks like it might collapse. I see that Donbass has more chance of survival if Kiev attacks than if Kiev complies with Minsk as too much is left to chance, which is why I often use the word "Micawberism", hoping that something will turn up. I saw Minsk 1 as a disaster, some agree, some do not, and I now see Minsk 2 as not yet a disaster, but as a potential severe threat to Donbass, unless Kiev attacks.....

franco wrote:

I believe some use the votes as a agree / disagree button. I have seen others get (-) and thought "What the heck!", but it is what it is.

Even I have received them          

Oh it doesn't bother me these votes, only that I think if anybody dislikes a post, then they should explain themselves, as voting down is lazy. voting up is self explanatory and needs no supporting comment

flamming_python wrote: what are you so upset about? That the Donbass is not going to become part of Russia? Well, it might yet, but right now it is politically inconvenient to press for it or mention it and that's what the whole situation is about.

Snipped all the rest of your post as I either agree with some or disagree with other parts, but it's parts that we are unlikely to agree to so futile to engage on them. However, on the part I left. I am not "upset" per se, just expressing a strong feeling of discontent. In fact I would say that my comments about this are very mild compared to what appears on some Russian networks. On some of my other posts today you can see I laid out one of the main reasons I am discontent and that is because such "games" make us look like some throwback to the old days, and the techniques and words used against Purgin were very similar to those used against Nikolai Bukharin, and others, during the show trials. If we want to present to the world a face of competance and reason about Ukraine, let alone Russia, then these "games" simply give the appearance of a mask being ripped of to expose the ghost of Stalin. We know this is not true, but those without sufficient knowledge may be swayed in their opinions, and of course enemies will laugh. We cannot laugh one day at the antics of the radikals in Kiev, and then expose ourselves to the same riducule, it is nonsense, and it is more about that than Purgin I am annoyed about.

Karl Haushofer wrote:Nobody answered my question so I ask again:

If Minsk II is fully implemented does it mean that the NAF has to disarm and give border control to Ukraine?

No and kind-off.

As I understood it DNR/LPR are able to have an armed police force or militia. Pushed to its extreme this would mean that the existing NAF forces would be re-branded from 'army' to 'militia' or 'police' if they are not already called that. Given the heavy militarisation of the police in the US this could be quoted as a good precedent perhaps but there are heavily armed police in the EU, with helicopters etc.

Again AFAIK given that they seem to check the Russian aid convoys, there are already Kiev border control operatives at the two main cross over points.

Again AFAIK given that they seem to check the Russian aid convoys, there are already Kiev border control operatives at the two main cross over points.

Believe they are called the OSCE

This post is a brief summary of various comments made by bloggers and such around the networks and is not my work. Some of you will already be familar with this as I have taken from yurasumy, mikle 1 and others less well known. Despite reputation among some about yurasumy, fortruss have quoted him, so he must be Kremlin approved, yes.......

What happened in Donetsk on Friday is still not over while there has not been a statement by anybody in authority, either in Donetsk or Russia. There are of course conflicting opinions not just on the consequences, but about what actually happened and who is ultimately responsible. The lack of any statement, particulary from Zakharchenko, is being taken as a sign that what happened was an un-authorized attempt to remove Purgin, even bypassing Zakharchenko, who may be lucky to still have his job. This, if true, can be for reasons of essentially crime, for instance taking control of aid. That is distasteful if true, but I mention it because this is what is being said, rumor or not. The other reason is more complicated and involves people outside Donetsk trying to impose a certain view, and this is were the use of "un-authorized" comes in. Many all over the networks were very quick to assume that the removal of Purgin must be because Kremlin wants this, and so made comments to justify the removal of Purgin. It is not sure at all, nothing is sure, but those who quickly assumed this was a "Putin approved" act, may get egg over their faces. Tomorrow we will get a better view when the People's Council meets, and it must be asked why the frack have they not been meeting all weekend as this is, no matter what people say, a constitutional crisis for DNR. It is said that the removal of Purgin was illegal by the laws because insufficient deputies were present on Friday and that others, Purgin supporters, were deliberately kept out of the building or pressurised. Precisely the method used to remove Yanukovich, and if so makes it difficult to beat ukrops with without chants of hypocrisy. This is just one reason this is all so clumsy and stupid. Here is a link to the "Regulations of the People's Council of the Donetsk People's Republic". Either DNR is responsible for it's own actions and governance, or it is a front for Kremlin. If the Kremlin, then this rather goes against the pressumed reasons to throw Purgin and makes it all a farce. If it is all the responsibility of DNR, then there is a serious problem with control.
http://dnr-sovet.su/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/reglament_NS_DNR.pdf

Khepesh wrote:

flamming_python wrote: what are you so upset about? That the Donbass is not going to become part of Russia? Well, it might yet, but right now it is politically inconvenient to press for it or mention it and that's what the whole situation is about.

Snipped all the rest of your post as I either agree with some or disagree with other parts, but it's parts that we are unlikely to agree to so futile to engage on them. However, on the part I left. I am not "upset" per se, just expressing a strong feeling of discontent. In fact I would say that my comments about this are very mild compared to what appears on some Russian networks. On some of my other posts today you can see I laid out one of the main reasons I am discontent and that is because such "games" make us look like some throwback to the old days, and the techniques and words used against Purgin were very similar to those used against Nikolai Bukharin, and others, during the show trials. If we want to present to the world a face of competance and reason about Ukraine, let alone Russia, then these "games" simply give the appearance of a mask being ripped of to expose the ghost of Stalin. We know this is not true, but those without sufficient knowledge may be swayed in their opinions, and of course enemies will laugh. We cannot laugh one day at the antics of the radikals in Kiev, and then expose ourselves to the same riducule, it is nonsense, and it is more about that than Purgin I am annoyed about.

Stalin ordered Bukharin to be arrested, declared an enemy of the people in a show trial, and executed.

Purgin was simply dismissed from his post, the same as any official of any government might be (and regularly are) dismissed for publicly voicing opinions that go contrary to official policy. Let's not compare him to Bukharin.

I don't think anyone in Kiev even cares enough to use it in their propaganda. They're much more comfortable spreading linguistic chauvinism and sowing hatred against ordinary people. What use would they have for some official getting fired in the DNR?

I get your point about the purges and so on. When it comes to the killings of Batman and Mozgovoi it's very alarming and indeed an example of totalitarian tactics; yet at the same time those were military commanders who acted independently of the wishes of the main military leadership; many militaries might act the same way to enforce discipline at a time of war.

Khepesh wrote:This post is a brief summary of various comments made by bloggers and such around the networks and is not my work. Some of you will already be familar with this as I have taken from yurasumy, mikle 1 and others less well known. Despite reputation among some about yurasumy, fortruss have quoted him, so he must be Kremlin approved, yes.......

What happened in Donetsk on Friday is still not over while there has not been a statement by anybody in authority, either in Donetsk or Russia. There are of course conflicting opinions not just on the consequences, but about what actually happened and who is ultimately responsible. The lack of any statement, particulary from Zakharchenko, is being taken as a sign that what happened was an un-authorized attempt to remove Purgin, even bypassing Zakharchenko, who may be lucky to still have his job. This, if true, can be for reasons of essentially crime, for instance taking control of aid. That is distasteful if true, but I mention it because this is what is being said, rumor or not. The other reason is more complicated and involves people outside Donetsk trying to impose a certain view, and this is were the use of "un-authorized" comes in. Many all over the networks were very quick to assume that the removal of Purgin must be because Kremlin wants this, and so made comments to justify the removal of Purgin. It is not sure at all, nothing is sure, but those who quickly assumed this was a "Putin approved" act, may get egg over their faces. Tomorrow we will get a better view when the People's Council meets, and it must be asked why the frack have they not been meeting all weekend as this is, no matter what people say, a constitutional crisis for DNR. It is said that the removal of Purgin was illegal by the laws because insufficient deputies were present on Friday and that others, Purgin supporters, were deliberately kept out of the building or pressurised. Precisely the method used to remove Yanukovich, and if so makes it difficult to beat ukrops with without chants of hypocrisy. This is just one reason this is all so clumsy and stupid. Here is a link to the "Regulations of the People's Council of the Donetsk People's Republic". Either DNR is responsible for it's own actions and governance, or it is a front for Kremlin. If the Kremlin, then this rather goes against the pressumed reasons to throw Purgin and makes it all a farce. If it is all the responsibility of DNR, then there is a serious problem with control.
http://dnr-sovet.su/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/reglament_NS_DNR.pdf

Russia doesn't give a toss about how control is maintained in its client states.

I remember in South Ossetia a few years ago, a woman who was campaigning to be elected president at the next elections - ended up sent to an insane asylum.
And then of course we have Kadyrov's Chechnya.

As bad as this is, I think it's more to do with thuggish local elites than anything else.

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

...............
Why are you expecting that the Ukrainian statehood will collapse and not that of the fragile DLPR?
The Khasavyurt accords were a failure.
People will vote with their feet and continue leaving this region until nothing is left to defend

Only people voting with their feet are Ukrainians and even greater numbers will be leaving in coming months and years. This is proven fact.

flamming_python wrote:
...........

If the current path was going to lead to the junta taking control in the Donbass - than why do you think Porko was willing to go even for a full offensive with a probable chance of failure in preference to this?

This sentence tells us everything we need to know about how ''favourable'' this situation is for Kiev.

Ukraine as self governing entity is finished. As for it's physical shape it is only matter of time before partitioning starts in one way or the other...

flamming_python wrote:

Stalin ordered Bukharin to be arrested, declared an enemy of the people in a show trial, and executed.

Purgin was simply dismissed from his post, the same as any official of any government might be (and regularly are) dismissed for publicly voicing opinions that go contrary to official policy. Let's not compare him to Bukharin.

I don't think anyone in Kiev even cares enough to use it in their propaganda. They're much more comfortable spreading linguistic chauvinism and sowing hatred against ordinary people. What use would they have for some official getting fired in the DNR?

I get your point about the purges and so on. When it comes to the killings of Batman and Mozgovoi it's very alarming and indeed an example of totalitarian tactics; yet at the same time those were military commanders who acted independently of the wishes of the main military leadership; many militaries might act the same way to enforce discipline at a time of war.

By implication Purgin is accused of activity against the interests of the state. Alexandrov is directly accused and is on the run. The similarity with Bukharin is that they are falsely accused of being enemies of the state in order to eliminate then. I suggest that the only reason Purgin and Alexandrov are still alive is becuase of the high positions they held in government. To liquidate military commanders is easier as the blame can be put on enemy spetsnaz, to have assasinated Purgin and Alexandrov would be too difficult to explain. Clearly what they think in Kiev is irrelevant, but what they think in the west is not, or if it is, then why not end this charade and invade now. But it is to present a certain face, a certain narrative to the west, is it not, and when carried out in such a stupid manner it fails. But then that may have been the intention of who ever ordered this, which mitigates against Putin, and so we are in one of those fairground houses of mirrors.

Motorola has been on vacation in Rostov http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2372456.html
Givi has been on vacation in Abkhazia.

Khepesh wrote:Motorola has been on vacation in Rostov http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2372456.html
Givi has been on vacation in Abkhazia.

So why are you steering panic? Look, every "perestanovka" within the newly formed republics need understanding and patience, even if we don't agree with them at first. Waving the Russian flag is one thing, pursuing own interests for personal gain is another.

NATO's Fall Season: US Tanks Repainted Green for Conflict in Ukraine




http://sputniknews.com/world/20150904/1026597298/nato-tanks-us-green-repainting.html

I can only assume that he believes that if he and his officials say this often enough the Russians might cave in. But then Lagarde in in Kiev so he has to say something positive, even tho' the IMF seems to agree with Russia that the $3B loan is sovereign not commercial debt.

KIEV (Sputnik) — Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on Sunday that Russia under no circumstances would be given more favorable conditions for the restructuring of the loan to Ukraine. "Under no circumstances Ukraine will provide any benefits to the Russian loan. The Russian side had all the facilities needed to join the negotiations, we were open to express our positions," Poroshenko said at a press conference after talks with International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde.

The Ukrainian leader urged Russia to decide before the year-end whether it participates in the restructuring of the Ukrainian state debt. "The talks [on debt restructuring with the creditors' committee] have been held, there is no and will be no default. Russia should decide before the end of the year…whether it goes with commercial creditors or it holds a separate position…when it decides, Ukraine will also define its position," Poroshenko said.

Ukraine is experiencing a deep recession and high inflation amid the armed conflict between government forces and militia in the country's southeast, which started in April 2014. On August 28, Kiev and its international creditors agreed to write down 20 percent of Ukraine's foreign debt. Last week, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said it was unlikely that the country would default on its debt as the government has a plan to stabilize the economy.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150906/1026667016.html#ixzz3kyhLDhYn

Neutrality wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Motorola has been on vacation in Rostov http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2372456.html
Givi has been on vacation in Abkhazia.

So why are you steering panic? Look, every "perestanovka" within the newly formed republics need understanding and patience, even if we don't agree with them at first. Waving the Russian flag is one thing, pursuing own interests for personal gain is another.

Where have I made mention of either of them? what is the post number where I mention them?

Show the "evidence" against Alexandrov and Purgin, and what, apart from disagrement about aspects of Mink, is the difference between Purgin and Pushilin that says that Purgin is sinner and must go and Pushilin is the "good" guy. Both are to an extent in pocket of Akhmetov, and Zakharchenko was in charge of his bodyguard, as that is what Oplot was, simply bodyguard of Akhmetov. This is not "normal" politcs, it is bastards and their insatiable desire for $

Here comes the Eastern Maginot line. Anyone think of a suitable title? My highlight.

LUGANSK (Sputnik) – Ukraine’s armed forces are building fortifications on the frontline near the village of Novotoshkivske in Eastern Ukrainian Lugansk region, a people’s militia representative told reporters.

“Construction machinery has recently been seen close to the 29th checkpoint of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Novotoshkivske, they [Kiev forces] are strengthening their dugouts, building multistory underground structures and caponiers,” Mikhail Pisarev, deputy brigade commander of the Lugansk militia, told reporters Saturday. According to Pisarev, since the announcement of ceasefire on Tuesday, the shelling of militia’s positions by Kiev forces began to occur less frequently, but provocations still happen periodically.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150906/1026645359.html#ixzz3kyiM3Fuy

Caponier (in French, caponniére), a structure for defensive firing designed for conducting flanking or oblique fire.

There are machine-gun, gun, and combined gun and machine-gun caponiers. In the old fortresses caponiers were designed to enfilade the moats of the fort and were placed against the inner (scarp) wall of the moat. Since World War I (1914–18) caponiers have been installed in field position systems and fortified areas. Caponiers are usually placed on rear slopes or behind a local object of the terrain for conducting artillery or machine-gun fire flanking the obstacle zone and the approaches to neighboring weapon emplacements.
The Great Soviet Encyclopedia, 3rd Edition (1970-1979). © 2010 The Gale Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

Khepesh wrote:

Neutrality wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Motorola has been on vacation in Rostov http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2372456.html
Givi has been on vacation in Abkhazia.

So why are you steering panic? Look, every "perestanovka" within the newly formed republics need understanding and patience, even if we don't agree with them at first. Waving the Russian flag is one thing, pursuing own interests for personal gain is another.

Where have I made mention of either of them? what is the post number where I mention them?

Show the "evidence" against Alexandrov and Purgin, and what, apart from disagrement about aspects of Mink, is the difference between Purgin and Pushilin that says that Purgin is sinner and must go and Pushilin is the "good" guy.

Perhaps not you personally but you keep posting stuff that other fear mongers continue to write about yet another "slili DNR".

Neutrality wrote:

Perhaps not you personally but you keep posting stuff  that other fear mongers continue to write about yet another "slili DNR".

I post what I believe to be the truth, not what I am told is the truth by hampsters and various media outlets. For months I have been carefull about what I post because I know my posts are misused, I even wrote about this more than once, but now I am tired of self censorship and will speak my mind.

max steel wrote: NATO's Fall Season: US Tanks Repainted Green for Conflict in Ukraine

 


http://sputniknews.com/world/20150904/1026597298/nato-tanks-us-green-repainting.html

It is common for vehicles to be painted for the area they are in. Desert Tan does not go well anywhere but the desert. I never did like the current Euro 1 or whatever hard line cammo, I prefer the older style for spring and summer. Late fall and winter when the snows come it is common to simply whitewash the vehicles. In spring when everything is turning green again the remains of the whitewash are removed.

Khepesh wrote:

Neutrality wrote:

Perhaps not you personally but you keep posting stuff  that other fear mongers continue to write about yet another "slili DNR".

I post what I believe to be the truth, not what I am told is the truth by hampsters and various media outlets. For months I have been carefull about what I post because I know my posts are misused, I even wrote about this more than once, but now I am tired of self censorship and will speak my mind.

By all means. I'm not telling you what you should post. Just think it's pretty early to judge what's really going on.

Let me try this image gig again.

Neutrality wrote:

By all means. I'm not telling you what you should post. Just think it's pretty early to judge what's really going on.

Yes, of course, but a pity that since Friday a certain "faction" has been busy telling everybody what has happened and why, and contradicting their own position in doing so. I am about the networks in general, not here specifically. This "faction" has pushed an agenda on this affair without evidence and may yet get egg on face, tho I now expect that a recovery operation will take place in order to save face, and all manner of "evidence" will emerge about Purgin and Alexandrov. For instance the crimes of "having a black cat", "dancing on the Sabbath", "cavorting with Satan" and "kissing a goats rear end". It will be interesting to see if part of this post is circulated as real "evidence", weirder things happen.....

Khepesh wrote:

Neutrality wrote:

By all means. I'm not telling you what you should post. Just think it's pretty early to judge what's really going on.

Yes, of course, but a pity that since Friday a certain "faction" has been busy telling everybody what has happened and why, and contradicting their own position in doing so. I am about the networks in general, not here specifically. This "faction" has pushed an agenda on this affair without evidence and may yet get egg on face, tho I now expect that a recovery operation will take place in order to save face, and all manner of "evidence" will emerge about Purgin and Alexandrov. For instance the crimes of "having a black cat", "dancing on the Sabbath", "cavorting with Satan" and "kissing a goats rear end". It will be interesting to see if part of this post is circulated as real "evidence", weirder things happen.....

The Putin fan-club/Russia can do no wrong faction, hasting to explain away every possible action as the most cunning plan yet (don't laugh, there are even bigger crazies on this site).

I'm not one of them, I'm a realist, I recognize each party's interests and through that I try to just see things for how they are - but personally I don't share your pessimism on the matter either.
I have faith that even if the road is rough - we're not seeing the beginning of Russia's 'surrender' of the DNR/LNR to Kiev. Russia is going to keep supporting them as they are a potent instrument and Russia cannot betray the very people it has invested so much into supporting so blatantly. No-one is going to be surrendered, or led to any basements.
This conflict is simply going to be put on the back-burner because such is the mutual interest of both the EU and Russia. In the meantime, there are other interesting goings-on that will manifest in Ukraine-land.

I don't believe that the Ukraine can survive. I don't know if anyone noticed, but its rule is based off massive political repression, control of all information resources, and downright totalitarian tactics; especially in the east of the country. People are not even being allowed to say or publish what they think for fear of a visit from the intelligence services.
I don't think this is viable in a European country in the 21st century (even an extensively brainwashed one), with full internet access available to the population, surrounded by countries where information is unrestricted. Also, the collapsing economy - I've never heard of any economy falling by 15% in one year without massive social and political repercussions. You can only feed people with nationalism for so long; sooner or later they're going to start complaining about the lack of real food.
'Progressive', 'European' people in the Ukraine loved to hate on the USSR - well now they're nearly back to Stalin's time, much less the later decades - and I don't think this fact has gone unnoticed on them.

What we're going to see now is the reverse of the last 24 years of anti-Russian brainwashing and indoctrination of youth, due to the absolute, undeniable disaster that such policies have produced for the country. When everyone's starving - everyone's a pragmatist. The pendulum will swing back and it will do so mightily. It might happen relatively peacefully, that's to say the government will be voted out or collapse due to in-fighting, no confidence; and a more sane, concillatory one will take its place.
However, more than likely it will happen with a considerable amount of violence, or a break-up of the country altogether (seeing as its core identity is that very same anti-Russian brainwashing - modern Ukraine is anti-Russia in every single way and form; to survive it will need to radically change its whole ideology and identity, albeit this is theoretically possible too).

So yeah, Khepesh, I'm not worried about the Junta. Neither should you be. I suggest you pour yourself a Martini, Malibu Sunrise or whatever's your favourite drink, kick back on a lawn chair and enjoy the view.

Novorussian artillery in Artemovsk area hit Ukrainian BMP-2 and what looks like Osa-AKM.

medo wrote:



Novorussian artillery in Artemovsk area hit Ukrainian BMP-2 and what looks like Osa-AKM.

Counter battery fire at it's best.

While I used the term 'rumor' some posts back, the truth is for the last weeks before Mr. Poroshenko went to Berlin for his ritual nose slapping the boys generally waited for OSCE to hit cocktail hours at their comfortable digs in Donetsk at which time their only concern was whose knickers they were going to get in of the evening, the boys then rolled out the heavy stuff and had at the orc batteries. It seems that fine food and drink is an excellent sound insulator, OSCE didn't hear a thing, but then we know they are deaf, dumb and blind on a good day and hopefully they will have very few good days in their lives. In regards to the orcs, they got slaughtered in the darkness, those that weren't firing from civilian built up areas, and someone mentioned to me some days ago that a couple orc units that decided to change position in broad daylight, assuming that OSCE was extant when the sun was shining, bit the big one during their route march between civilian areas. Seems OSCE was not in their particular AO. Dang those bouts of static that renders the orc/OSCE commo net useless from time to time.