The Situation in the Ukraine. #21

Khepesh wrote:The bullshit in Donetsk is not over. I said yesterday about Dainego and transfering control of LNR border to Kiev. Purgin was against this part of Minsk and Pushilin for it. Odd that all of a sudden Purgin and Alexandrov are discovered to be "traitors" for the "crime" of wanting to be part of Russia. Odd silence over this, isn't there.....
We are told that full implementation of Minsk will take place, yet when Kiev controls the border of LNR and DNR, no more voentorg, no more civilian voentorg, no more nothing. But hey, Akhmetov and his friends, both sides of the border, will be smiling, when they take their mouths off the "partners" dicks.  

Kiev will only control the border if Russia gets what it wants from Ukraine and in that case there will be no need for voentorg anymore. Purgin is gone because he didn't stick to the plan so he needed to be gone. There is nothing sudden about this, for some time there was talk about changes that will be made in the leadership of the republics so obviously that time has come. Why now and not two weeks from now is irrelevant. The point is Putin has the plan and it's the same one from the start. You may disagree with it but it's the only right plan for Russia, Donbass and Ukraine. It's the only one that could bring peace now and in the long run. Purgin and Alexandrov are not traitors but were starting to talk about referendum and joining Russia to much and that obviously didn't please Moscow.

Erk wrote:

Khepesh wrote:
Then let's send all who waved Russian flags to the basement and shout Слава Україні! Героям слава!

Or perhaps send them to the basement and tell them to Читайте Мінськ II, перш ніж говорити

No Minsk in Spring when so many waved flag and thought Russian Army was coming, they now all "traitors". Why is Dainego saying that border of LNR will be handed to Kiev. All the dead, they died to perhaps have "special status" in junta controlled Ukraine, and they will be lucky to get that. How many will be in the SBU basement and not emerge alive. I do not see a single credible explanation for what is happening that can explain how it is good for Donbass.

Nikander wrote:
Kiev will only control the border if Russia gets what it wants from Ukraine and in that case there will be no need for voentorg anymore. Purgin is gone because he didn't stick to the plan so he needed to be gone. There is nothing sudden about this, for some time there was talk about changes that will be made in the leadership of the republics so obviously that time has come. Why now and not two weeks from now is irrelevant. The point is Putin has the plan and it's the same one from the start. You may disagree with it but it's the only right plan for Russia, Donbass and Ukraine. It's the only one that could bring peace now and in the long run. Purgin and Alexandrov are not traitors but were starting to talk about referendum and joining Russia to much and that obviously didn't please Moscow.

You are saying this to the wrong person......

If the border is given to Kiev if they comply with all of Minsk, it means that Donbass is not free but still part of a Ukraine controlled by the junta. This does not square with statements made by Zakharchenko. Is he lying? are all of them lying? Did they all die for "special status"?

  ХПП

Khepesh wrote:

Erk wrote:

Khepesh wrote:
Then let's send all who waved Russian flags to the basement and shout Слава Україні! Героям слава!

Or perhaps send them to the basement and tell them to Читайте Мінськ II, перш ніж говорити

No Minsk in Spring when so many waved flag and thought Russian Army was coming, they now all "traitors". Why is Dainego saying that border of LNR will be handed to Kiev. All the dead, they died to perhaps have "special status" in junta controlled Ukraine, and they will be lucky to get that. How many will be in the SBU basement and not emerge alive. I do not see a single credible explanation for what is happening that can explain how it is good for Donbass.

Let me explain what I think is happening here. But first off:

1. You ought to read Minsk more carefully.
2. No need to panic monger over every event; Flagship Haushofer and company are not the sort of posters to look up to. Yes some officials are being purged. Happened like x123456789 times already in the DNR/LNR.

Now,
The republics are entitled to self-defence forces. No-one is going to be led to any basements.
The most likely scenario for the border would be that the UAF and NAF will agree to do joint-patrols there, or for UAF patrols to be 'supervised' or observed by NAF forces on duty. This will enable the 'Ukrainian control of the border' checkbox to be ticked for Porko and for him to present it as an accomplishment (more on this in a bit).
Voentorg in this situation would not be neccessary, Kiev would be satisfied with its nominal control over the borders and de-jure status of the break-away republics as part of its own territory. Shelling will be stopped, the war will be stopped; both sides will delimit themselves according to the boundaries set by the Minsk agreements (and the next episode of the Ukrainian statehood collapse can kick-off somewhere else).

De-facto things will remain much as they were, the DNR/LNR will be run by their own authorities, have their own army and enforce their own laws.

The most similar example is probably the Khasavyurt accords in 1996; where seperatist Chechnya agreed to defer the question of its independence but otherwise was left alone to its own devices. Not a co-incidence that Russia brokered something similar in Minsk 2014.

Porko will be able to present this as an accomplishment to the population and to the nationalists. His power base is very shaky, and he knows that he won't win a new war - that launching a new offensive is something that can only end badly, while turning away from an offensive will bring the nationalists back on him. Evidently Merkel and Hollande splashed some cold water in his face and informed him about the reality of a situation, and just how little chance of success he will have if he attempts to go ahead with the offensive (perhaps he was counting on their full support and promise to put maximum possible sanctions on Russia if it intervened to save the rebels again?).
With those options out of the way, the only other one to implement the Minsk agreements in full; allowing him to 'save face', and to satisfy the nationalist opposition by pointing to his success in 'reasserting the Ukraine's territorial integrity'. It's not an ideal solution for him - he didn't want to do it, but now he really has no choice. Hence why the shelling suddenly stopped now. Porko is going to comply with Minsk.
Any attempt at Kiev to assert its control from de-jure to de-facto will be met with fresh clashes and the restarting of voentorg. Hence why Porko won't do it.

Khepesh wrote:

Nikander wrote:
Kiev will only control the border if Russia gets what it wants from Ukraine and in that case there will be no need for voentorg anymore. Purgin is gone because he didn't stick to the plan so he needed to be gone. There is nothing sudden about this, for some time there was talk about changes that will be made in the leadership of the republics so obviously that time has come. Why now and not two weeks from now is irrelevant. The point is Putin has the plan and it's the same one from the start. You may disagree with it but it's the only right plan for Russia, Donbass and Ukraine. It's the only one that could bring peace now and in the long run. Purgin and Alexandrov are not traitors but were starting to talk about referendum and joining Russia to much and that obviously didn't please Moscow.

You are saying this to the wrong person......

If the border is given to Kiev if they comply with all of Minsk, it means that Donbass is not free but still part of a Ukraine controlled by the junta. This does not square with statements made by Zakharchenko. Is he lying? are all of them lying?

  ХПП

If Kiev complies with Minsk it will be the end of junta, Donbass would be the first free part of Ukraine from where all other parts would be liberated. So they will not comply, there will be war, they will get crushed, lose more territory until a coup happens in Kiev and then it's over. You need to remember what is written in Minsk accords. If everyone complies with their part of the agreement Russia and Donbass are winners while junta is fucked and that's why the want out of Minsk. This process needs to come to it's end and it's end will be junta breaking the Minsk. Until then Russia needs to show that it's doing everything on her part to comply and that's what all those moves are about.

And about LNR and border control I just read at Cassad about it and it seems there was a misunderstanding there. But PR is definitely not their strong suit that I've noticed for some time.

Nikander wrote:

Kiev will only control the border if Russia gets what it wants from Ukraine and in that case there will be no need for voentorg anymore.

Correct. To think that Russia government will be "fooled" now and will risk the security
of their nation by allowing the Rebels to be overrun is silly. It will not happen. The REbels
will NEVER drop their weapons.. that is not part of Minsk-2.. They will always have the control of the cities.. it will be impossible for any borders guard on kiev to really control anything if the Rebels have tanks and heavy weapons...  The REbels will not allow any kiev thug to pass to their zones with heavy weapons.  And neither donetsk or lugangsk will give control to Kiev of their borders until the REforms made ..and they given autonomy and recognized by kiev its local forces as legitimate.  A new minsk might be required to define in details what an Special status means.. and signed by both.. this will not cancel minsk-2 ,only clarify some points.

Again as long the REbels do not drops their heavy-med and light weapons..and their tanks, Ukraine will NOT have control of Lugank and Donetks.. and Rebels disarming is not part of Minks-2.. only retreating a bit from a buffer created zone and giving control of borders and giving up with their independence. The last two ,will only happen AFTER Kiev give Strong Autonomy to the Rebels... THis words "Strong Autonomy" were the ones used by France.. several times.. After Minsk-2 was signed.. Germany earlier before minsk 2 was signed..suggested Federalization of Ukraine ,that is even more generous ,since totally remove a lot  of the power of kiev over its cities. and create many semi independent cities. with local governments. and local police , That Kiev cannot control.

a Federalization of all Ukraine will almost completely reverse the  NulandNazis coup and end
the Americans close to absolute control of what is left of Ukraine and change it for control of
a symbolical capital that nobody will listen or care.

This is why i think Minsk-2 is a really Master Piece document.. IT allows Poroshenko
to show its people "He won" and that Rebels have to retreat in its claims for independence.
But in real practice it will be a totally different thing. Rebels will be a semi Independent State,
but it will be temporary, Because Ukraine will disband.. it allows Russia and Rebels to win time and end the war... Is an Independence through baby steps.  This is the most likely thing that will happen.. At the same time.. Minsk-2 allows Ukraine to really end the conflict and save itself
from disbanding and end the civil war in other cities.. IF ,they end their fascism and give equal rights to all Ethnic Russians minorities in Ukraine and representation in Kiev.. and allows them to elect another President that is PRO Russia.. naturally something like this will NOT happen
because it will completely destroy their revolution and end Ultra Nationals and Americans control of kiev ,since Factions friendly to Russia are the majority in Ukraine.  and Pro European factions Euromaidan many feel betrayed by Americans and the organizers of the kiev protest. So the image and support of Russia have to be greater now ,than when the Euromaidan unrest began.. and the popularity of Ultra Nationals /Poroshenko and americans the lowest. Since many Euromaidan supporters have switched sides ,since feel betrayed by the west.. including Europe.


So what will be the most likely future of Ukraine?
it will all depends highly on Europe, how much pressure they have made on Americans to end
their proxy war against Russia.. so most probable possibilities are either..
1)Americans will continue fueling the conflict ,until manage to get Russia into a war with
Ukraine..with the objective to get more sanctions on Russia..  (this will disband ukraine)
2)or Americans will give up with Ukraine -Russia war plans for the moment and resume the conflict couple of years later when new politicians in Europe show up more loyal to their interest. To resume the conflict. (this will also disband Ukraine)

Most likely #1 option , but it could be the later.. it all depends on Europe pressure.
In either case Russia have a high probability to regain its influence over Ukraine ,the crimean way.. in most of Ukraine.. Europe will not feed Ukraine ,and Americans will only supply weapons. So the biggest race of Russia should be to Boost its Economy ,to counter Americans
Sabotage on it.. So that Russia can influence better Ukrainians ,through a strong economy and  image of  a nation with future, an convince most Ukrainians to give up their "European integration" and see Russia as a more secure future..  Interestingly the Europe Union can even make the whole Euromaidan revolution totally pointless and Academic if for example they sign
a Free trade pact with Russia... before they do it with Ukraine.. So there will be no more point
on trying to distance from Russia since it will be part of Europe.  --->  

naturally something like this will be the last nail in the coffin of American Imperialism. and possibly NATO ,since will get very close Europe and Russia at Economic and political level.
This is why i said many times the European Union/Europe **United** or majority of it,have all the ACES ,all the cards to end the conflict in Ukraine.. because they are the most influential side with Ukraine future.  Is really interesting the politics that this Ukraine conflict present.. because
it allows Europe the opportunity for the first time ,to overshadow Americans on international politics and a Big Potential for its Independence too. An economic alliance between Europe ,Russia and China will truly put and end to American leading role in the world.. in business /politics or even military. and no longer they will be able to manipulate them as easily.

But something like this.. to happen.. will require Russia to have a major industrial revolution , have their own Internet, their own Swift , their own international Credit/payment system ,IT ,Entertainment and computers. This system needs to be created , an Alternative to American Business , BEFORE Europe take such a huge risk or divorcing from Americans. and i really think Russia and China can pull it out.. something like that.. China now already can reverse engineer many Apple products..and for sure some Intel processors too. We will see.
But if Europe was smart ,it will send all they have in technology to Russia..to help them in their
industrial revolution.. and make it more easier.. and later Russia can take that knowledge to a new level. This appears to be happening already at a small scale with some German and italian Companies in the Automobile Industry. by building state of the art automobile manufacturing plants in Russia. and also Japan too. appears to be doing this..  

So the conflicts in the world in middle east and africa and Europe will stop ,when no longer
Americans are needed. Thats when Europe will be truly free. When No longer Americans can
use their Business/technology and Economic influence to blackmail Europe. It will be forced to
negotiate as equals and not as an "Exceptionally superior" nation. When no longer Americans are needed.. is when Europe and most of the world will be free.  Russia already have achieved
major Business /technology freedom in many areas.. For example Russia dont need americans for Energy , for Space technology  ,for nation military defense.. Russia have an Alternative and superior to GPS.. for most basic food to live, etc.  Where Russia lacks  is on technology for entertainment and possibly in health too. Automobile industry still not there at American level , and neither its Fashion industry.  but is not neccessary that Russia do it all.. As long as the most difficult important things are made by Russia that everyone wants ,and its economy become Strong ,any business alliance with Europe will complete it , and become an alternative to American business.  So this is why US Gov is desperate to destroy Russia.. They are in a very strategic location ideal for business close to most of the major economies of the world.  

Europe alone cannot become business independent of Americans ,because they can be blackmailed easily politically ,economically and military.. . But Russia dont have those problems. Why is more practical for Europe to help Russia on its industrial revolution and Russia prepare the road and conditions for Europe to integrate with them. The whole BRICS thing will become
just a show ,it will do nothing other than reduce the dollar influence. Because of the major culture differences.. Europe and Russia is a totally different thing.. this is why americans Policy with the help of its puppets in Europe are dramatically changing European CUlture.. removing its Christian religion , replacing it for islam and promoting at the same time Gay marriage and reviving Nazism with a new flavor pro West. ..To make it impossible for Europe and Russia to ever become integrated.

=======================
in abit off topic.. take a look of how American CIA operates in RUssia..
A new report /video in Russia released by its media ,reveals some of its tactics.. How amateurish are their tactics caught in camera by Russian intelligence services.

Notice that if their identification and photos of the American spies are shown in the video is because they were arrested and kicked from the country already.

http://www.ntv.ru/novosti/1501576/

flamming_python wrote:

Khepesh wrote:

Erk wrote:

Khepesh wrote:
Then let's send all who waved Russian flags to the basement and shout Слава Україні! Героям слава!

Or perhaps send them to the basement and tell them to Читайте Мінськ II, перш ніж говорити

No Minsk in Spring when so many waved flag and thought Russian Army was coming, they now all "traitors". Why is Dainego saying that border of LNR will be handed to Kiev. All the dead, they died to perhaps have "special status" in junta controlled Ukraine, and they will be lucky to get that. How many will be in the SBU basement and not emerge alive. I do not see a single credible explanation for what is happening that can explain how it is good for Donbass.

Let me explain what I think is happening here. But first off:

1. You ought to read Minsk more carefully.
2. No need to panic monger over every event; Flagship Haushofer and company are not the sort of posters to look up to. Yes some officials are being purged. Happened like x123456789 times already in the DNR/LNR.

Now,
The republics are entitled to self-defence forces. No-one is going to be led to any basements.
The most likely scenario for the border would be that the UAF and NAF will agree to do joint-patrols there, or for UAF patrols to be 'supervised' or observed by NAF forces on duty. This will enable the 'Ukrainian control of the border' checkbox to be ticked for Porko and for him to present it as an accomplishment (more on this in a bit).
Voentorg in this situation would not be neccessary, Kiev would be satisfied with its nominal control over the borders and de-jure status of the break-away republics as part of its own territory. Shelling will be stopped, the war will be stopped; both sides will delimit themselves according to the boundaries set by the Minsk agreements (and the next episode of the Ukrainian statehood collapse can kick-off somewhere else).

De-facto things will remain much as they were, the DNR/LNR will be run by their own authorities, have their own army and enforce their own laws.

The most similar example is probably the Khasavyurt accords in 1996; where seperatist Chechnya agreed to defer the question of its independence but otherwise was left alone to its own devices. Not a co-incidence that Russia brokered something similar in Minsk 2014.

Porko will be able to present this as an accomplishment to the population and to the nationalists. His power base is very shaky, and he knows that he won't win a new war - that launching a new offensive is something that can only end badly, while turning away from an offensive will bring the nationalists back on him. Evidently Merkel and Hollande splashed some cold water in his face and informed him about the reality of a situation, and just how little chance of success he will have if he attempts to go ahead with the offensive (perhaps he was counting on their full political/economic support for this endavour?)
With those options out of the way, the only other one to implement the Minsk agreements in full; allowing him to 'save face', and to satisfy the nationalist opposition by pointing to his success in 'reasserting the Ukraine's territorial integrity'. It's not an ideal solution for him - he didn't want to do it, but now he really has no choice.
Any attempt at Kiev to assert its control from de-jure to de-facto will be met with fresh clashes and the restarting of voentorg. Hence why Porko won't do it.

I'd rather say remember how Sochi turned out.

More "democracy" agents... caught with their pants down..

recently A journalist? caught Navalny in a meeting with Foreign assets in a restaurant
and in the same place there was an American car with a diplomatic license.
The journalist enter and ask the American.. what you doing here?
supporting democracy?


Biggest Putin Critic, Navalny - Exposed as An American Asset



http://fortruss.blogspot.ca/2015/09/putin-critic-navalny-exposed-as.html

flamming_python wrote:

Khepesh wrote:

Erk wrote:

Khepesh wrote:
Then let's send all who waved Russian flags to the basement and shout Слава Україні! Героям слава!

Or perhaps send them to the basement and tell them to Читайте Мінськ II, перш ніж говорити

No Minsk in Spring when so many waved flag and thought Russian Army was coming, they now all "traitors". Why is Dainego saying that border of LNR will be handed to Kiev. All the dead, they died to perhaps have "special status" in junta controlled Ukraine, and they will be lucky to get that. How many will be in the SBU basement and not emerge alive. I do not see a single credible explanation for what is happening that can explain how it is good for Donbass.

Let me explain what I think is happening here. But first off:

1. You ought to read Minsk more carefully.
2. No need to panic monger over every event; Flagship Haushofer and company are not the sort of posters to look up to. Yes some officials are being purged. Happened like x123456789 times already in the DNR/LNR.

Now,
The republics are entitled to self-defence forces. No-one is going to be led to any basements.
The most likely scenario for the border would be that the UAF and NAF will agree to do joint-patrols there, or for UAF patrols to be 'supervised' or observed by NAF forces on duty. This will enable the 'Ukrainian control of the border' checkbox to be ticked for Porko and for him to present it as an accomplishment (more on this in a bit).
Voentorg in this situation would not be neccessary, Kiev would be satisfied with its nominal control over the borders and de-jure status of the break-away republics as part of its own territory. Shelling will be stopped, the war will be stopped; both sides will delimit themselves according to the boundaries set by the Minsk agreements (and the next episode of the Ukrainian statehood collapse can kick-off somewhere else).

De-facto things will remain much as they were, the DNR/LNR will be run by their own authorities, have their own army and enforce their own laws.

The most similar example is probably the Khasavyurt accords in 1996; where seperatist Chechnya agreed to defer the question of its independence but otherwise was left alone to its own devices. Not a co-incidence that Russia brokered something similar in Minsk 2014.

Porko will be able to present this as an accomplishment to the population and to the nationalists. His power base is very shaky, and he knows that he won't win a new war - that launching a new offensive is something that can only end badly, while turning away from an offensive will bring the nationalists back on him. Evidently Merkel and Hollande splashed some cold water in his face and informed him about the reality of a situation, and just how little chance of success he will have if he attempts to go ahead with the offensive (perhaps he was counting on their full support and promise to put maximum possible sanctions on Russia if it intervened to save the rebels again?).
With those options out of the way, the only other one to implement the Minsk agreements in full; allowing him to 'save face', and to satisfy the nationalist opposition by pointing to his success in 'reasserting the Ukraine's territorial integrity'. It's not an ideal solution for him - he didn't want to do it, but now he really has no choice. Hence why the shelling suddenly stopped now. Porko is going to comply with Minsk.
Any attempt at Kiev to assert its control from de-jure to de-facto will be met with fresh clashes and the restarting of voentorg. Hence why Porko won't do it.

1 - I do not take lessons from anybody.
2 - What is happening is total bullshit, it is clumsy, crude, uneccesary.
3 - While Mozgovoi and others were murdered do not make patronising and insulting comments that people will not be led to basement.
4 - You have not made a credible excuse for what is happening, simply engaged in smoke and mirrors that hide the fact that nowhere in this is Donbass anything but a part of junta controlled Ukraine.
5 - Read this. http://limonov-eduard.livejournal.com/706537.html
6 -  You or anybody has made any mention of the fact that people who want to be part of Russia are purged. I presume because of some remaining shame about the total stupidity of this. Defend purging anybody for waving Russian flag without shame or crossing your fingers behind your back.

flamming_python wrote:Now,
The republics are entitled to self-defence forces. No-one is going to be led to any basements.
The most likely scenario for the border would be that the UAF and NAF will agree to do joint-patrols there, or for UAF patrols to be 'supervised' or observed by NAF forces on duty. This will enable the 'Ukrainian control of the border' checkbox to be ticked for Porko and for him to present it as an accomplishment (more on this in a bit).
Voentorg in this situation would not be neccessary, Kiev would be satisfied with its nominal control over the borders and de-jure status of the break-away republics as part of its own territory. Shelling will be stopped, the war will be stopped; both sides will delimit themselves according to the boundaries set by the Minsk agreements (and the next episode of the Ukrainian statehood collapse can kick-off somewhere else).

De-facto things will remain much as they were, the DNR/LNR will be run by their own authorities, have their own army and enforce their own laws.

The most similar example is probably the Khasavyurt accords in 1996; where seperatist Chechnya agreed to defer the question of its independence but otherwise was left alone to its own devices. Not a co-incidence that Russia brokered something similar in Minsk 2014.

Why are you expecting that the Ukrainian statehood will collapse and not that of the fragile DLPR?
The Khasavyurt accords were a failure.
People will vote with their feet and continue leaving this region until nothing is left to defend.

Khepesh,

First of all, nothing has really changed on the battleground. Things can still go back to full scale war any moment and Donbass is still ready and prepared for it. So, you don't need to be angry or frustrated.

This is all diplomacy. For Minsk II to be implemented and peace to be established:
-Porky has to sideline the extremists, ultranationalists and other fascists in his camp. He is slowly doing that to Pravy sector, Svoboda etc. Of course, people like Yarosh, Tyagnybok and others are being very vocal about their dissatisfaction. Porky's job is not easy but he will have to keep on doing it.
-On the Novorossiya side, the ones who are pushing towards complete separation from country 404 and reunification with Russia have to be sidelined too. And that is what is happening now (in fact it has been happening for a while).

Remember, Minsk 2 is a deal between Russia and EU (Germany & France) which also has approval from the USA. The deal is more solid than a lot of people here think. Country 404 and DNR/LNR just take orders from their respective bosses and will do as they are told to do.

If the Minsk II agreement gets implemented fully, this will be the results:
What the West gets: Donbass will get reintegrated within country 404. The process will take many years and will take more than one president/government/parliament in country 404 to complete the process.
What Russia gets: It keeps Crimea. It keeps strong influence on country 404 through its allies there (eastern regions). Country 404 will not join NATO. Country 404 will not be able to join the EU (at best they may get visa free regime).

At the end, everybody wins some and looses some. There is no clear winner or looser.
Of course, there is absolutely no guarantee from one side to the other that the above will be implemented. There is no trust in words nor on any signature on documents, that's why things are proceeding very slowly. But, the alternative to Minsk II is going back to war in which both EU and Russia will be loosers (no matter what the outcome on the battlefield) and the USA will be the winner.

Preferences:
-The USA would prefer the war option as it suits their interests best (Even if country 404 looses some more territory). But they are unable to exert enough pressure on the EU to push for war. So they are ok for Minsk II and peace. They will look for other opportunities to make trouble at another time or in another place...
-The EU needs peace more than anybody else. They have enough troubles already. They are exerting immense pressure (maybe even threatening) on Porky to put an end to all military plans. They are also trying their best to keep the USA at bay.
-Russia would also prefer the peace option. The Minsk II deal was negotiated just after a Russian victory (Donetsk airport) and right before another one (Debaltsovo). Russia got the terms that it could accept (they keep Crimea, they maintain influence and strong ties with Ukraine which will not be able to join NATO). Having said that, Russia also is ready for the collapse of the agreement and a return to war. In that case, there will be a serious East (Russia)-West (EU and USA) deterioration and all bets will be off: Russia will look forward to grab as much of country 404 as possible.

What will happen to Ukraine if Minsk II is fully implemented?
It will be a poor country dependent on EU and Russia for loans, credits etc.
Lots of brawls and fights in the parliament.
Lots of oligarchs trying to get richer.
Millions of Ukrainians working in Russia and in the EU.
Just like Yushenko/Tomochenko did a few years ago, Porky will visit Moscow as often as EU.

Here is a scenario that needs thought. Most everybody says that Kiev will never comply with Minsk, so leaving the door open for a resumption of war, which will not be to Kiev's advantage. So, what happens if Kiev fully complies with Minsk. It is not sufficient to say they never will, the implications of such an event need to be considered. For a start it will remove the possibility of liberating the occupied areas of DNR/LNR unless VSN initiate the war, which is against the "cunning plan".....

TheArmenian wrote:
This is all diplomacy.

Mozgovoi. For me his murder was a "game changer" and I am no longer tolerant of certain aspects of what happens, particulary "cunning plans" that involve purging of people who wave Russian flag. Am I alone here in knowing this is shameful ?. I mentioned yesterday that some of what happens is similar to what happened in 30s, and this does not go un-noticed by enemies and is used as propaganda to make westeners think Stalin still lives, that Beria's agents lurk everywhere in Russia. We know it is total crap, but they do not, and what is happening does not help.

Oh, and now the "down votes", what a surprise. I never down voted anybody and if I did I would tell them why. So be honest who wants to down vote me, don't be an anonymous coward.

TheArmenian wrote:-Porky has to sideline the extremists, ultranationalists and other fascists in his camp. He is slowly doing that to Pravy sector, Svoboda  etc. Of course, people like Yarosh, Tyagnybok and others are being very vocal about their dissatisfaction. Porky's job is not easy but he will have to keep on doing it.

Porky is more dangerous than these people. It would be much harder to remove him.

TheArmenian wrote:What Russia gets: It keeps Crimea. It keeps strong influence on country 404 through its allies there (eastern regions). Country 404 will not join NATO. Country 404 will not be able to join the EU (at best they may get visa free regime).

Minsk is not responsible for achieving these goals.

TheArmenian wrote:But, the alternative to Minsk II is going back to war in which both EU and Russia will be loosers (no matter what the outcome on the battlefield) and the USA will be the winner.

The Kremlin would be a loser.
Others in Russia, not so much.

TheArmenian wrote:Russia got the terms that it could accept (they keep Crimea, they maintain influence and strong ties with Ukraine which will not be able to join NATO).

Not Ukraine, only Donbass.
And even that would be uncertain in the long run.

TheArmenian wrote:What will happen to Ukraine if Minsk II is fully implemented?
It will be a poor country dependent on EU and Russia for loans, credits etc.
Lots of brawls and fights in the parliament.
Lots of oligarchs trying to get richer.
Millions of Ukrainians working in Russia and in the EU.
Just like Yushenko/Tomochenko did a few years ago, Porky will visit Moscow as often as EU.

Sounds like a bad deal for Russia.
Ukraine has become an anti-Russian country.
It should not be treated like the Ukraine of the 1990s/2000s.

Khepesh wrote:1 - I do not take lessons from anybody.

Don't let pride get in the way of a good lesson

2 - What is happening is total bullshit, it is clumsy, crude, uneccesary.

Not the first time; arguably it first kicked off with Strelkov abdicating.
What makes everything so different this time?

3 - While Mozgovoi and others were murdered do not make patronising and insulting comments that people will not be led to basement.

OK, fair point.

4 - You have not made a credible excuse for what is happening, simply engaged in smoke and mirrors that hide the fact that nowhere in this is Donbass anything but a part of junta controlled Ukraine.

I've explained what I think is happening; the same thing that's been happening since the Minsk agreements were penned. And internal opposition in the DNR/LNR, anyone who might interfere with the plan - has slowly been curtailed.
Ukraine is supposed to have been doing the same thing against its own radicals; even though it isn't.

DNR/LNR are not going to become part of the Ukraine, except in name. Russia gains nothing by selling everyone out after first defending them from Ukrainian aggression.
Being de-jure part of the Ukraine and being under the control of the junta is not the same thing.
If the current path was going to lead to the junta taking control in the Donbass - than why do you think Porko was willing to go even for a full offensive with a probable chance of failure in preference to this?

The current plan is a Khasavyurt accord, I stand by my claim. I didn't know at first what the Minsk accords were aiming for, but now analysing the situation and taking a look at the specifics of the Minsk agreements, it seems like the answer was there all along.

5 - Read this. http://limonov-eduard.livejournal.com/706537.html

I don't take lessons from anybody!  

Just kiddin'  

Yeah the Natsbol says nothing new. Naive revolutionaries being duped and replace. Shouldn't have made a deal with the devil (Kremlin) in return for assistance - now it calls the shots.

What do you want anyone to do about it? That's the question?
Want total independence from the Ukraine? Waste its army yourselves, with no help.

All the help coming from Moscow - is impossible to hide from the eyes of the rest of the world (and no, I don't just mean the West). Moscow can't be seen to be prolonging a seperatist conflict in a foreign country for the ultimate aim of securing that region's independence or later incorporating it into Russia. Moscow has to play a more diplomatic, and smarter game - albeit the result might prove to be the same later on.

6 -  You or anybody has made any mention of the fact that people who want to be part of Russia are purged. I presume because of some remaining shame about the total stupidity of this. Defend purging anybody for waving Russian flag without shame or crossing your fingers behind your back.

Honestly I never even heard of Purgin before these events.
Much has been said about the fact that he wanted to be part of Russia. I suppose that's reason enough to dismiss him (albeit maybe not the true reason?), seeing as officially speaking everyone is supposed to nominally accept being part of the Ukraine.
It's not like he was killed or anything, what are you so upset about? That the Donbass is not going to become part of Russia? Well, it might yet, but right now it is politically inconvenient to press for it or mention it and that's what the whole situation is about.

Khepesh wrote:

TheArmenian wrote:
This is all diplomacy.

Mozgovoi. For me his murder was a "game changer" and I am no longer tolerant of certain aspects of what happens, particulary "cunning plans" that involve purging of people who wave Russian flag. Am I alone here in knowing this is shameful ?. I mentioned yesterday that some of what happens is similar to what happened in 30s, and this does not go un-noticed by enemies and is used as propaganda to make westeners think Stalin still lives, that Beria's agents lurk everywhere in Russia. We know it is total crap, but they do not, and what is happening does not help.

Oh, and now the "down votes", what a surprise. I never down voted anybody and if I did I would tell them why. So be honest who wants to down vote me, don't be an anonymous coward.

I don't follow this Ukraine thing nearly as closely as most of the people here but I saw where things were turning long time ago.

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

TheArmenian wrote:-Porky has to sideline the extremists, ultranationalists and other fascists in his camp. He is slowly doing that to Pravy sector, Svoboda  etc. Of course, people like Yarosh, Tyagnybok and others are being very vocal about their dissatisfaction. Porky's job is not easy but he will have to keep on doing it.

Porky is more dangerous than these people. It would be much harder to remove him.

TheArmenian wrote:What Russia gets: It keeps Crimea. It keeps strong influence on country 404 through its allies there (eastern regions). Country 404 will not join NATO. Country 404 will not be able to join the EU (at best they may get visa free regime).

Minsk is not responsible for achieving these goals.

TheArmenian wrote:But, the alternative to Minsk II is going back to war in which both EU and Russia will be loosers (no matter what the outcome on the battlefield) and the USA will be the winner.

The Kremlin would be a loser.
Others in Russia, not so much.

TheArmenian wrote:Russia got the terms that it could accept (they keep Crimea, they maintain influence and strong ties with Ukraine which will not be able to join NATO).

Not Ukraine, only Donbass.
And even that would be uncertain in the long run.

TheArmenian wrote:What will happen to Ukraine if Minsk II is fully implemented?
It will be a poor country dependent on EU and Russia for loans, credits etc.
Lots of brawls and fights in the parliament.
Lots of oligarchs trying to get richer.
Millions of Ukrainians working in Russia and in the EU.
Just like Yushenko/Tomochenko did a few years ago, Porky will visit Moscow as often as EU.

Sounds like a bad deal for Russia.
Ukraine has become an anti-Russian country.
It should not be treated like the Ukraine of the 1990s/2000s.

I agree with most of this.

But the Ukraine is on its way down, its statehood is slowly falling apart, its society is become more radicalised, its economy is in free-fall and its government is very unpopular.

That's why I think that this discussion is a little needless; about Russia securing influence in the Ukraine, or the Ukraine being secured as an anti-Russian colony, etc...
Minsk agreement, no Minsk agreement. It won't matter in 1-2 years, the government will either be overthrown or other armed conflicts will break out in the country.
Anyone can see that the country is completely volatile and that the present situation will not hold, so it doesn't make sense to build any plans on the basis of it.

Russia doesn't want to be associated/blamed for this, hence another reason why calming the conflict in the Donbass is a good option for it. All the Ukrainian radicals stationed there can then leave and march on Kiev, or whatever it is that they will want to do.

Nobody answered my question so I ask again:

If Minsk II is fully implemented does it mean that the NAF has to disarm and give border control to Ukraine?

If this is the case what will prevent Kiev from tearing the whole Minsk agreement and cancel all the admissions that where given to Donbass, and punish/kill everyone in Donbass who took part of the armed conflict?

Karl Haushofer wrote:Nobody answered my question so I ask again:

If Minsk II is fully implemented does it mean that the NAF has to disarm and give border control to Ukraine?

If this is the case what will prevent Kiev from tearing the whole Minsk agreement and cancel all the admissions that where given to Donbass, and punish/kill everyone in Donbass who took part of the armed conflict?

NAF doesn't have to disarm according to the Minsk agreements, that's my understanding of it.

Border control yes - but in practise the NAF is still there and is going nowhere; the Minsk agreement has defined its territory and its territory includes all of the border areas. Therefore if there is any border control, it will be a joint one.
The NAF will be keeping an eye on all Ukrainian moves, while the Ukrainians will be satisfied with seeing no voentorg convoys.

SBU or anyone else won't be allowed in. Instead the NAF and its own security & intelligence appartus will be counted as 'Ukrainian' ones, and they will run, police and defend their own territory themselves.

If Kiev attempts to violate any of this it would be in breach of Minsk, and hence back to war.

I don't like the idea of the DNR/LNR being part of the Ukraine in any shape way or form, much less 'reintegrating' into it.
However, on balance - the DNR/LNR keeping control in combination with the end of the war - is not such a bad outcome, no matter what's penned on paper. They deserve better, but it's better than what they were asking for right in the beginning; decentralization and so on.
I'm also confident that the Ukraine will ultimately not be around long enough, whether fully or in its present form, to 'reintegrate' them.

Khepesh wrote:Here is a scenario that needs thought. Most everybody says that Kiev will never comply with Minsk, so leaving the door open for a resumption of war, which will not be to Kiev's advantage. So, what happens if Kiev fully complies with Minsk. It is not sufficient to say they never will, the implications of such an event need to be considered. For a start it will remove the possibility of liberating the occupied areas of DNR/LNR unless VSN initiate the war, which is against the "cunning plan".....

If (and there is a big "if") Kiev manages to fully comply with Minsk:
That means that the bloodthirsty radicals/fascists/ultranationalists have been sidelined, made to shut up, crushed, eliminated ...
That means that Kiev will have to listen to Donbass
Which means that Kiev will have to listen to Russia
Which means that Porky will have to travel to Moscow and discuss things with Putin (just like Yushenko and Timenchenko did)
Which means that Ukraine (without Crimea) will be back to where things were a few years ago (end of Yushenko term and beginning of Yanukovich's)

There is no "cunning plan" from Russia as you imagine it. Just geopolitics that take into consideration the two situations:
What if Minsk fails?
What if Minsk happens?

Khepesh wrote:

TheArmenian wrote:
This is all diplomacy.

Mozgovoi. For me his murder was a "game changer" and I am no longer tolerant of certain aspects of what happens, particulary "cunning plans" that involve purging of people who wave Russian flag. Am I alone here in knowing this is shameful ?. I mentioned yesterday that some of what happens is similar to what happened in 30s, and this does not go un-noticed by enemies and is used as propaganda to make westeners think Stalin still lives, that Beria's agents lurk everywhere in Russia. We know it is total crap, but they do not, and what is happening does not help.

Oh, and now the "down votes", what a surprise. I never down voted anybody and if I did I would tell them why. So be honest who wants to down vote me, don't be an anonymous coward.

First of all I did not down-vote you. I would never do that to a raccoon who is in the same trench as I am.

Mozgovoi's loss was tragic but expected. I mourn his loss. He was a great commander on the battlefield, a man who had principles.

But lets leave emotions aside and go back to reality.
There is a time for war and there is a time for peace. There are people who sometimes can't differentiate between the two.

Mozgovoi was a soldier who did not only disagree with his superiors, but also was quite vocal about it. He simply did not follow orders.

There is a huge difference between Strelkov and Mozgovoi. They both shared the same views. The former did not disobey and stepped aside when the time came. The later did not and paid the price.

TheArmenian wrote:

Khepesh wrote:

TheArmenian wrote:
This is all diplomacy.

Mozgovoi. For me his murder was a "game changer" and I am no longer tolerant of certain aspects of what happens, particulary "cunning plans" that involve purging of people who wave Russian flag. Am I alone here in knowing this is shameful ?. I mentioned yesterday that some of what happens is similar to what happened in 30s, and this does not go un-noticed by enemies and is used as propaganda to make westeners think Stalin still lives, that Beria's agents lurk everywhere in Russia. We know it is total crap, but they do not, and what is happening does not help.

Oh, and now the "down votes", what a surprise. I never down voted anybody and if I did I would tell them why. So be honest who wants to down vote me, don't be an anonymous coward.

First of all I did not down-vote you. I would never do that to a raccoon who is in the same trench as I am.

Mozgovoi's loss was tragic but expected. I mourn his loss. He was a great commander on the battlefield, a man who had principles.

But lets leave emotions aside and go back to reality.
There is a time for war and there is a time for peace. There are people who sometimes can't differentiate between the two.

Mozgovoi was a soldier who did not only disagree with his superiors, but also was quite vocal about it. He simply did not follow orders.

There is a huge difference between Strelkov and Mozgovoi. They both shared the same views. The former did not disobey and stepped aside when the time came. The later did not and paid the price.

Sorry, that part of the post was not aimed at you, it was an addition that should have been a seperate post. Sometimes I get lazy and simply add to a post instead of making a new one.