The Situation in the Ukraine. #21

Karl Haushofer wrote:Any military victory, any successful repelling of Kiev attack by Donbass will be seen as a hostile move against Ukraine by the West and Russia will be seen as the guilty part no matter who is in charge of Donbass, whether they are in favor of joining Russia or staying part of Ukraine. The only solution that suits the West is a total surrender of Donbass without conditions.

Khepesh wrote:I make a point about Donbass not breaking from Ukraine earlier, apart from it being "treason" of course....
Let it be presumed that only people of 18 and over will be taking part in any revolution. Then even 18 year olds in 1991 will now be 42, and 18 year olds do not organise and lead revolutions, usually those from mid twenties to thirties and forties do this. That means that any prospective leader of a revolution in Donbass in 1991 would now be a grandad, yet the vast majority actively involved now, particulary the fighting, were not old enough or not even born in 1991. How can some kid in a basement be blamed for what his grandparents failed to do 24 years ago, and how can they have fully known they needed to do something, fucking crystal ball? How can a twenty year old soldier at the front be blamed. Let's stop blaiming the people of Donbass for the crisis, it stinks like ukrops and their supporters blaiming Donbass civilians for their own deaths....

Ruthenius wrote:Refat Dedarov, chief executive of Bakhchysarai district in the Republic of Crimea, attempted to express the dominating point of view held by the part of Crimean Tatar people which prefers to stay neutral in their relations with the Russian government. He claimed that, "it is difficult for a nation that was unfairly convicted for the crimes it didn't commit, to establish new contacts immediately". However, he admitted that today Crimean Tatars possess much greater variety of rights, opportunities and the ways to exploit them and he refuses to be called "a bureaucrat".

http://realnoevremya.ru/today/13186


The problem with inter-ethnic relations seems to be worry the whole international society. During the congress in Ankara, Turkey, some people even spoke "genocide" in regards to the events happening with Crimean Tatars. But what is really a mere speculation and what is truth? What is actually happening in Crimea today?

Life is going on its way in Crimea. As Sergey Askyonov said to us: "We must try to make things better than now, but not worse". That's why we work for 10-12 hours every day trying to reach some milestones. Unfortunately, what we have succeeded from Ukraine lies far, far away from Russia's legal framework so nothing will change quickly. For example, the last school was built in 1972 and the last kindergarten in 1976. In order to start constructing roads we have to prepare all documents that we have never used to process in Ukraine. Today, with the help coming from Republic of Tatarstan we are building a schools for 640 pupils with the focus on the study of Crimean Tatar language and two kindergartens.

Regarding oppression. Yes, we have opponents, I call them neighbors despite that they prefer all other kinds of titles. They think only like that, but I am sure that they will understand our opinion. I have visited 2015 World Aquatics Championships in Kazan and listened how the whole Europe was saying during the closure: "Thank you Kazan, thank you Vladimir, thank you Russia"! Of course, Tatarstan is a democratic republic with tolerant people, but I think that in Crimea fans cheering somthing like that would've been booed and hissed away. But at the same time I saw Ukrainian flag raised over Tatneft Arena and I asked if it is true that Ukraine has sent its own team in Russia? And she really has, I confirmed it myself after scanning the whole Internet, Kiev has really sent its team in Tatarstan, to Russia, to that "occupant who stole our Crimea" - they love to claim it very, very much, don't they? Later I called to Ukrainians and ask what was this all about? They told me: "Refat, what does sport have to do with all this, like really??" Well, if I had a grudge against you, I would've not made the difference between your arms, eyes or the whole body. I would've been totally displeased with you without any exceptions.

Is there any rift between Crimean Tatars and others?

Yes, this rift happened in the past. It is difficult for a nation that was unfairly convicted for the crimes it didn't commit, to establish new contacts just immediately. After the secession of Crimea our leaders have begun to conduct such policies that are mostly beneficial not for Tatar people but for the foreign states like Ukraine and others. I think that a leader must be with their people.

Do these Crimean Tatars, who visited the congress in Ankara, still live in the republic today?

They do, ten people or more went there, but I haven't heard any kind of attack against Russia or Putin in their speeches. Their main focus was the observance of the rights of Crimean Tatars, language teaching programs and restoration of ethnic names of our villages. So when I hear someone in Kiev proposing to create an autonomous region for Crimean Tatars, I think that with the same success they can try to endorse the project of naming some airport in the USA after Amet-khan Sultan. Kiev hasn't done anything good for Crimean Tatars for 23 years, but now they are all so kind and willing?

Ukraine was not conducting any sound policies regarding Tatars?

Listen to Yatsenuk's speeches he made in the past. Listen what Petr Simonenko had to say. Listen to any Ukrainian presidents. Has anyone of them ever said something about giving privileges to us. Yatsenuk was crying bloody murder how Tatars take over land property. But that was not a choice of our own and we didn't capture private but only unused lands. Moreover, when we returned to Crimea we didn't start demanding like: "This land belonged to my grandfather, give it back now!", no, we asked for compensations from the government. We did everything on our own, we collected all documents and money. Just take a look on our big, well-attended and decorated houses that we raised without any mortgage. Isn't this a sign of a hard-working and determined folk who lives on its homeland? Of course, today people can discuss this even while standing aside, but what kind of patriot are you if you have abandoned you homeland and scurried away? I took a huge effort studying the history of Tatarstan. I know that after Minitmer Shamiev was elected, each Saturday you had been organizing rallies attended by 50 000 people at least. Many words were spoken and Shamiev did not shut the door with a bang, but decided to stay and work together with Tatar people. Now you reap all fruits you sowed, we all can see how good Tatarstan fares today.

But what about us? The last time Crimea had water pipelines repaired was in 1968. We were waiting, voting for new presidents. One day Yushenko took this position, a good president. He won elections, came to Crimea but what next? He didn't solve any problem with land, he didn't do anything at all. When in 1988 my family was coming back here, we were returning to our Rodina, not to Russia, USSR or to Ukraine, we were coming home. But suddenly we were told that our new Rodina is Ukraine.

How many Crimean Tatars left Crimea due to their political preferences?

These numbers vary. I shall say for myself, I was the chief executive in Poshtovskii village council when secession happened. This is one of the biggest villages in Bakhchysarai district with 13 big communities and many lesser ones. According to my information only one person left our district with his family. I cannot claim that he was followed by a thousand or ten thousand families. It would've been too obvious if a thousand Tatar families had left Crimea. Such numbers cannot be confirmed. The main reason for this is purely political nature of the current struggle, it doesn't have feature of inter-ethnic conflict between Russians, Ukrainians and Tatars. Alienate, divide and rule- this is the easiest method conflicting politicians can attempt to use. I don't believe in the massive exodus of Crimean Tatars, this would've been to obvious.

Maybe it is unclear because it is easy to monitor such dynamics in this particular area?

I do know this right because I live here and work for real. I am not an armchair bureaucrat.

By the way, about bureaucracy - why did your predecessor, Ilmi Umerov, resign?

I attended the last rally that he held with people. I saw his videos where he claimed that he is going stay to serve our people. In April he recognized Axyonov's authority, recognized Crimea as integral part of Russia and Putin as our president. Then he went to Kazan for a medical treatment and in August he resigned under the motivation that he "doesn't want to swear an oath". But was it only about an oath? If I hadn't wanted to work within Russian legal framework I would've left my position right after the referendum. But he did this only after 6 months of working and being paid for that. Why did it take so long? Just to finish all applications for his retirement and disability benefits? Something smells fishy with this.
Fortunately I can trace up his actions prior to the referendum and after that. Sometime after the referendum he attended the meeting in Khan's Palace, celebrated the Day of Russia and met with Sergey Naryshkin, but now he is telling everyone that Russia is an invader. So if Russia is an invader, why did you celebrate the invasion in the first place? Did you really need 6 months to comprehend that Russia is indeed an invader?

So what is the the main problem today? Political or managerial?

Managerial of course, welfare system is the most important. Folk doesn't need any Maidan or Anti-Maidan to feel that something isn't right. One can spend debating the whole day but ultimately they have to go home. They try to drive by the road but there is no asphalt road. They try to send their kids to a kindergarten but there is no kindergarten. No electricity, no gas supply. So what was the point in spending the whole day screaming about politics? For many years I have always been urging Crimean Tatars to stand united and start doing the real work. And today we have so many rights and opportunities like never before. Under the legal framework offered by the Russian Federation Crimean Tatars now have the opportunity to hold all vital official positions in the areas of our compact settlement. People can enter the offices and prove their competence, because it's futile to wait for an official from a nearby village to come to your help, they have their own duties at home, there is no point in holding grudge that nobody wants to do anything for you.

So there might be a problem that Crimean Tatars don't want to participate in politics?

Things change very quickly these days. Even people who preferred only to criticize and protest can be willing to work now. Frankly, the return of Crimea to Russia has greatly inspired us. And after the bridge to Russia is built Bakhchysarai will be able to catch up with Kazan . We have such a great potential in Crimea that can even leave Tatarstan envious. Just look at our forests and mountains. I don't want to boast, I am sorry, but in Tatarstan there is only one mountain barely 200 meters high, while we have Ai-Petri mountain, 1 234 meters high. Our potential is tremendous but we must start working hard.

JohninMK wrote:The aid convoys continue, but why is this stuff not sent by rail? Is it lack of local trucks to distribute it or is it that the Russians want, as far as they can, to keep it out of the hands of local 'entrepreneurs'?

KHIMKI, September 5. /TASS/. Russia's emergencies ministry plans to send over to Donbass in September three humanitarian convoys, Deputy Minister Vladimir Stepanov told reporters on Saturday. "In September we continue working as planned," he said in response to a question regarding delivery of humanitarian aid. "We plan three convoys before end of the month."

Over the conflict in Ukraine's Donbass, Russia has sent over to the region 37 humanitarian convoys of the emergencies ministry. Since August, 2014, Russia delivered to Donbass over 45,000 tonnes of humanitarian cargo.

Khepesh wrote:

higurashihougi wrote:

Khepesh wrote:The specifics are that he was under the influence of Alexei Alexandrov, a truely evil man who waved Russian flag and wanted to be part of Russia, well, what a fucking clown, traitor even.

Want Novo to be a part of Russia = Traitor ?

While my last several posts should be seen as deep sarcasm, unfortunately the reason why Alexandrov and Purgin have been purged is that their desire for Donbass to be part of Russia is seen as being a danger to DNR, in other words, treason.

auslander wrote:

I think it's more of a desire to have a uniform shield wall in the lines facing the orcs. I/we are not privy to the politics going on up north, we've got our hands full down here with some odds and ends going on across the ditch, but my take is some people will have a fall holiday while the NAF waits for the inevitable attack. I put the risk of an orc attack at over 95%. They did not move vast parts of their army and giant quantities of machinery and supply to the front area without planning to use it. NAF will not stand down, they will not drop their guard for an instant until the orcs withdraw and draw down their forces on the other side of the lines. Weather won't make a great deal of difference for the date of the attack. The Rasputitsya will not affect the attack or the defense hardly at all when you get down to reality and trust me, when the orcs get the order to attack, they will attack. Their fighting abilities have improved dramatically since last summer but then so have the soldierly qualities of our boys. This will be no walk in the park for either army but I have no doubts NAF will prevail. Losses will be heavy for both sides, many a mothers son and wife's husband will not return from the coming active war but in the end victory will be ours, bitter that victory may be for many.

Khepesh wrote: I'll just re-iterate what I said before. I'll agree with your assesment of 95% chance of offensive, and that while there will be games in the north, they will go for Starobeshovo to engage the reserve while further south smashing to Telmanovo. Doesn't matter about sitting on the border inviting another Zelenepole, they only need Telmanovo and to have defeated or serious damaged VSN forces there and at Elenovka - Starobeshevo. They cannot take all Donbass and know it, but the southern option, which I think most agree on, is possible, if they have the balls.

PapaDragon wrote:
''Kiev Asks G7 Finance Ministries to Pay For Winter Russian Gas Deliveries''

http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150905/1026631943.html

I would give them 1000 yen...

Khepesh wrote:

auslander wrote:

I think it's more of a desire to have a uniform shield wall in the lines facing the orcs. I/we are not privy to the politics going on up north, we've got our hands full down here with some odds and ends going on across the ditch, but my take is some people will have a fall holiday while the NAF waits for the inevitable attack. I put the risk of an orc attack at over 95%. They did not move vast parts of their army and giant quantities of machinery and supply to the front area without planning to use it. NAF will not stand down, they will not drop their guard for an instant until the orcs withdraw and draw down their forces on the other side of the lines. Weather won't make a great deal of difference for the date of the attack. The Rasputitsya will not affect the attack or the defense hardly at all when you get down to reality and trust me, when the orcs get the order to attack, they will attack. Their fighting abilities have improved dramatically since last summer but then so have the soldierly qualities of our boys. This will be no walk in the park for either army but I have no doubts NAF will prevail. Losses will be heavy for both sides, many a mothers son and wife's husband will not return from the coming active war but in the end victory will be ours, bitter that victory may be for many.

It was extremely clumsily done. At night and the accusations clearly plucked out of toilet bowl. If Alexandrov was financially corrupt etc, then why not sack him in the normal manner, but to come out with total crap that he had badly influenced Purgin, arrests at gunpoint, armed security putting Council building under lockdown. Perhaps some sailor should have found maggots in meat and a mother lost a pram down Odessa steps and we would have some film....But most of all, that to be in favor of joining with Russia was a "Danger to the security of the State" is shit from 1930s. Amateurish and embarrasing, but I guess both are lucky not to have got a bullet.

Yep, rasputitsa is no excuse not to wage war. Like earlier many were saying no offensives during winter because it was winter, wtf. And nobody heard of 1812 and 1941 and 1942/43 at Stalingrad. Only issues would be in the north along the Donets as window of opportunity for a succesful crossing is closing fast, but ukrops don't really need to do this as they are over the river anyway, but it would have been a good diversion. I think some have heads still stuck on old days before tarmac roads, even before roads. We know they can be crap but still way way better than anything in 1941. I'll just re-iterate what I said before. I'll agree with your assesment of 95% chance of offensive, and that while there will be games in the north, they will go for Starobeshovo to engage the reserve while further south smashing to Telmanovo. Doesn't matter about sitting on the border inviting another Zelenepole, they only need Telmanovo and to have defeated or serious damaged VSN forces there and at Elenovka - Starobeshevo. They cannot take all Donbass and know it, but the southern option, which I think most agree on, is possible, if they have the balls.

auslander wrote:

I hesitate to give any idea of what I think could or should happen when the ukes attack, I don't in the least want to give any bright light an idea and rest assured, they read this blog all day every day. I stand with the 95% still, regardless of any CiC or political changes that have or may happen. Bottom line is it's the motivation and skill of the boys in the lines that matters the most and if the political games, foolishness and turmoil get out of hand I would say it is within the realm of possibility that a rota or two may wander on over to see what the noise is about. The last thing anyone wants to do is affect the will of the boys to give 150% of their all as they have been. The boys can not stop, they can not abandon the cause, they can not withdraw. They are defending their families, their homes, their very lands and they well know what the price of failure will be. Regardless of any political turmoil in the rear they will fight to the death before they surrender or abandon the cause.

JohninMK wrote:

auslander wrote:

I hesitate to give any idea of what I think could or should happen when the ukes attack, I don't in the least want to give any bright light an idea and rest assured, they read this blog all day every day. I stand with the 95% still, regardless of any CiC or political changes that have or may happen. Bottom line is it's the motivation and skill of the boys in the lines that matters the most and if the political games, foolishness and turmoil get out of hand I would say it is within the realm of possibility that a rota or two may wander on over to see what the noise is about. The last thing anyone wants to do is affect the will of the boys to give 150% of their all as they have been. The boys can not stop, they can not abandon the cause, they can not withdraw. They are defending their families, their homes, their very lands and they well know what the price of failure will be. Regardless of any political turmoil in the rear they will fight to the death before they surrender or abandon the cause.

I doubt if any suggestion or idea we come up with here will be novel. As I have said before, some of the brightest strategic and tactical minds in the US military will now be in Kiev, this is career changing stuff going down here. They might not have the best tools to work with but they know that. Taking a leaf perhaps from the Red Army, overwhelming local numbers or put another way, brute force.

When does it start to get cold at night?

JohninMK wrote:

auslander wrote:

I hesitate to give any idea of what I think could or should happen when the ukes attack, I don't in the least want to give any bright light an idea and rest assured, they read this blog all day every day. I stand with the 95% still, regardless of any CiC or political changes that have or may happen. Bottom line is it's the motivation and skill of the boys in the lines that matters the most and if the political games, foolishness and turmoil get out of hand I would say it is within the realm of possibility that a rota or two may wander on over to see what the noise is about. The last thing anyone wants to do is affect the will of the boys to give 150% of their all as they have been. The boys can not stop, they can not abandon the cause, they can not withdraw. They are defending their families, their homes, their very lands and they well know what the price of failure will be. Regardless of any political turmoil in the rear they will fight to the death before they surrender or abandon the cause.

I doubt if any suggestion or idea we come up with here will be novel. As I have said before, some of the brightest strategic and tactical minds in the US military will now be in Kiev, this is career changing stuff going down here. They might not have the best tools to work with but they know that. Taking a leaf perhaps from the Red Army, overwhelming local numbers or put another way, brute force.

When does it start to get cold at night?

Dforce wrote:
I wonder what the supporters of the republics think about all this; do they understand the need to be used as pawns for Moscow or is there resentment?

franco wrote:

Khepesh wrote:I make a point about Donbass not breaking from Ukraine earlier, apart from it being "treason" of course....
Let it be presumed that only people of 18 and over will be taking part in any revolution. Then even 18 year olds in 1991 will now be 42, and 18 year olds do not organise and lead revolutions, usually those from mid twenties to thirties and forties do this. That means that any prospective leader of a revolution in Donbass in 1991 would now be a grandad, yet the vast majority actively involved now, particulary the fighting, were not old enough or not even born in 1991. How can some kid in a basement be blamed for what his grandparents failed to do 24 years ago, and how can they have fully known they needed to do something, fucking crystal ball? How can a twenty year old soldier at the front be blamed. Let's stop blaiming the people of Donbass for the crisis, it stinks like ukrops and their supporters blaiming Donbass civilians for their own deaths....

When this started last spring, one of the things that grabbed my attention and some of my colleagues was the amount of old geezers, veterans from Afghanistan picking up their AK's and heading for the trenches. Where they then taught the youngsters how to survive combat. As an old geezer myself it sure made my blood pump a little faster and wish that I still had that in me.
And as for reliving the past, to me this conflict is between the grandsons of the OUN and Red Army... 75 years be damned.

franco wrote:

When this started last spring, one of the things that grabbed my attention and some of my colleagues was the amount of old geezers, veterans from Afghanistan picking up their AK's and heading for the trenches. Where they then taught the youngsters how to survive combat. As an old geezer myself it sure made my blood pump a little faster and wish that I still had that in me.
And as for reliving the past, to me this conflict is between the grandsons of the OUN and Red Army... 75 years be damned.

Media: Motorola left Donetsk

DONETSK, September 5. From controlled militias of Donetsk received information that the self-proclaimed fighters DNI urgently leave the city for fear sweeps. It is noted that one of the first known militia left Motorola (Arsene Pavlov). According to a source publication "Dialogue", a fighter DNI left the city in the company of his mistress, leaving Donetsk wife and child. The source said that the militia and his entourage left the city in two jeeps that were the eyeballs stuffed with things. In July last year, Motorola married a local girl. The wedding took place in Donetsk, by that time had passed under the control of the DNI.

Khepesh wrote:The bullshit in Donetsk is not over. I said yesterday about Dainego and transfering control of LNR border to Kiev. Purgin was against this part of Minsk and Pushilin for it. Odd that all of a sudden Purgin and Alexandrov are discovered to be "traitors" for the "crime" of wanting to be part of Russia. Odd silence over this, isn't there.....
We are told that full implementation of Minsk will take place, yet when Kiev controls the border of LNR and DNR, no more voentorg, no more civilian voentorg, no more nothing. But hey, Akhmetov and his friends, both sides of the border, will be smiling, when they take their mouths off the "partners" dicks.  

Khepesh wrote:The bullshit in Donetsk is not over. I said yesterday about Dainego and transfering control of LNR border to Kiev. Purgin was against this part of Minsk and Pushilin for it. Odd that all of a sudden Purgin and Alexandrov are discovered to be "traitors" for the "crime" of wanting to be part of Russia. Odd silence over this, isn't there.....
We are told that full implementation of Minsk will take place, yet when Kiev controls the border of LNR and DNR, no more voentorg, no more civilian voentorg, no more nothing. But hey, Akhmetov and his friends, both sides of the border, will be smiling, when they take their mouths off the "partners" dicks.  

Erk wrote:

Khepesh wrote:The bullshit in Donetsk is not over. I said yesterday about Dainego and transfering control of LNR border to Kiev. Purgin was against this part of Minsk and Pushilin for it. Odd that all of a sudden Purgin and Alexandrov are discovered to be "traitors" for the "crime" of wanting to be part of Russia. Odd silence over this, isn't there.....
We are told that full implementation of Minsk will take place, yet when Kiev controls the border of LNR and DNR, no more voentorg, no more civilian voentorg, no more nothing. But hey, Akhmetov and his friends, both sides of the border, will be smiling, when they take their mouths off the "partners" dicks.  

Putin has said way back in May 2014 around the time of the LPR/DPR referendums, that he didn't want Donbass to be part of Russia, but to be part of Ukraine. This is consistent with Minsk. Control of the state border by Kiev is conditional on the constitutional reform taking place first/ which includes local self-government for the districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

Dforce wrote:Rumours that Motorola have left Donetsk:

Media: Motorola left Donetsk

DONETSK, September 5. From controlled militias of Donetsk received information that the self-proclaimed fighters DNI urgently leave the city for fear sweeps. It is noted that one of the first known militia left Motorola (Arsene Pavlov). According to a source publication "Dialogue", a fighter DNI left the city in the company of his mistress, leaving Donetsk wife and child. The source said that the militia and his entourage left the city in two jeeps that were the eyeballs stuffed with things. In July last year, Motorola married a local girl. The wedding took place in Donetsk, by that time had passed under the control of the DNI.

Подробнее: http://www.rosbalt.ru/ukraina/2015/09/05/1437224.html

Not sure how credible...

Khepesh wrote:
Then let's send all who waved Russian flags to the basement and shout Слава Україні! Героям слава!