PapaDragon wrote: No, no Big D, if you bothered to actually pay attention you would notice that it is Kiev's sugardaddy who is getting more than tad insecure: EU going down the toilet, ISIS taking over, Saudis strangling themselves, Iran on the rise, China getting all sorts of ideas, etc,etc the list just goes on and on and on and on...... and best of all Russia getting to enjoy the show completely shielded from ensuing shitstorm.
Not to mention creeping doom that approaches Kiev&Co with each passing hour..
But you keep your head deep in that sand if it keeps you relaxed.
As for the plan, only thing opposing side (Ukraine) gets to agree to is whether they will go into woodchipper feet-first or head-first.
There will be no happy ending to this story for Ukraine. Just slow, painful submission by Russia and cold abandonment by their pimps in the west.
BTW, how did you do in front of Rada the other day Big D? Did it hurt?
Yes yes, I guess I have to be happy about the short time you manged to keep it civil.
PapaDragon wrote: No, no Big D, if you bothered to actually pay attention you would notice that it is Kiev's sugardaddy who is getting more than tad insecure: EU going down the toilet, ISIS taking over, Saudis strangling themselves, Iran on the rise, China getting all sorts of ideas, etc,etc the list just goes on and on and on and on...... and best of all Russia getting to enjoy the show completely shielded from ensuing shitstorm.
Not to mention creeping doom that approaches Kiev&Co with each passing hour..
But you keep your head deep in that sand if it keeps you relaxed.
As for the plan, only thing opposing side (Ukraine) gets to agree to is whether they will go into woodchipper feet-first or head-first.
There will be no happy ending to this story for Ukraine. Just slow, painful submission by Russia and cold abandonment by their pimps in the west.
BTW, how did you do in front of Rada the other day Big D? Did it hurt?
Yes yes, I guess I have to be happy about the short time you manged to keep it civil.
PapaDragon does raise quite a few good points. Sure, the Novorossiya game plan is continuing onward with small adjustments here and there. But there was never more indication that the status quo that has been in place for all those years is gone especially with the points that PapaDragon has brought up. It will definitely be interesting to see how the coming months go down and all the signs of a brewing storm are present, in Ukraine and in the West especially. As J.R.R. Tolkien's character Gandalf said, "The board is set, the pieces are moving. We come to it at last... The great battle of our time" (Return of the King).
Anyway, I must ask, were you on the side catching or throwing the grenade?
PapaDragon wrote: No, no Big D, if you bothered to actually pay attention you would notice that it is Kiev's sugardaddy who is getting more than tad insecure: EU going down the toilet, ISIS taking over, Saudis strangling themselves, Iran on the rise, China getting all sorts of ideas, etc,etc the list just goes on and on and on and on...... and best of all Russia getting to enjoy the show completely shielded from ensuing shitstorm.
Not to mention creeping doom that approaches Kiev&Co with each passing hour..
But you keep your head deep in that sand if it keeps you relaxed.
As for the plan, only thing opposing side (Ukraine) gets to agree to is whether they will go into woodchipper feet-first or head-first.
There will be no happy ending to this story for Ukraine. Just slow, painful submission by Russia and cold abandonment by their pimps in the west.
BTW, how did you do in front of Rada the other day Big D? Did it hurt?
Yes yes, I guess I have to be happy about the short time you manged to keep it civil.
PapaDragon does raise quite a few good points. Sure, the Novorossiya game plan is continuing onward with small adjustments here and there. But there was never more indication that the status quo that has been in place for all those years is gone especially with the points that PapaDragon has brought up. It will definitely be interesting to see how the coming months go down and all the signs of a brewing storm are present, in Ukraine and in the West especially. As J.R.R. Tolkien's character Gandalf said, "The board is set, the pieces are moving. We come to it at last... The great battle of our time" (Return of the King).
Anyway, I must ask, were you on the side catching or throwing the grenade?
Mr. Grenade has no friends when he is in transit although being a catcher is infinitely worse than being a pitcher.
I don't know exactly what is going on up north but I think it's another strategic rearrangement of potential and current leaders which will make no real difference in the day to day nuts and bolts of operations both political and military.
The current truce in my opinion is temporary but the result of a number of actions. Mutti and the Fop called Poroshenko to Berlin for a judicious nose slapping in regards to the bombardments. I have no doubts whatsoever that they were not concerned in the least with the daily civilian casualties of Novorossiya civilians, I think what concerned them was the rumored two weeks prior to the truce nightly and deadly accurate counter battery fire from NAF positions against the specific units bombarding the civilians. Ukrops lost a lot of equipment, storages and men, losses they could not sustain with the coming offensive. I also have no doubts that Mutti and Fop know exactly when the offensive will start.
The political situation I'm not sure why this is being done at this moment but the fact is it's happening. I do know that at least one local supplier of information is not in the best of graces with TPTB and perhaps has sensed a sea change in regards to their being tolerated hereabouts. We'll see if eventually Minsk gets shoved down Kiev's throat but I think in the end whatever Kiev is ordered to do Kiev will do, Minsk be damned. So far Kiev has yet to implement a single one of the Minsk protocols in the six months since the signing and the reality is Kiev has no intention of doing anything in regards to Minsk, the only reason they signed Minsk was to get a breather after the Debaltsyevo debacle. There will be no 'Minsk 3', if the orcs are dumb enough to attack again, and I think they will, this time there will be no truce or stand down, NAF will do or die and from what I see NAF will 'do'.
On the other hand winter is coming and Kiev desperately needs gas and coal for the season, gas and coal they can only obtain one way or the other from their two 'enemies', Russia and Novorossiya. Ukrops are not strong enough to take DPR or LPR nor do they have the strength to take the valuable mines. Gas they can, have and always will steal from the transit lines to EU until all gas transit is ceased through Ukraine territory. Coal is a horse of a different color.
Perhaps peace will one day reign in Novorossiya but I think it will not be this day or this year.
PapaDragon wrote: No, no Big D, if you bothered to actually pay attention you would notice that it is Kiev's sugardaddy who is getting more than tad insecure: EU going down the toilet, ISIS taking over, Saudis strangling themselves, Iran on the rise, China getting all sorts of ideas, etc,etc the list just goes on and on and on and on...... and best of all Russia getting to enjoy the show completely shielded from ensuing shitstorm.
Not to mention creeping doom that approaches Kiev&Co with each passing hour..
But you keep your head deep in that sand if it keeps you relaxed.
As for the plan, only thing opposing side (Ukraine) gets to agree to is whether they will go into woodchipper feet-first or head-first.
There will be no happy ending to this story for Ukraine. Just slow, painful submission by Russia and cold abandonment by their pimps in the west.
BTW, how did you do in front of Rada the other day Big D? Did it hurt?
Yes yes, I guess I have to be happy about the short time you manged to keep it civil.
PapaDragon does raise quite a few good points. Sure, the Novorossiya game plan is continuing onward with small adjustments here and there. But there was never more indication that the status quo that has been in place for all those years is gone especially with the points that PapaDragon has brought up. It will definitely be interesting to see how the coming months go down and all the signs of a brewing storm are present, in Ukraine and in the West especially. As J.R.R. Tolkien's character Gandalf said, "The board is set, the pieces are moving. We come to it at last... The great battle of our time" (Return of the King).
Anyway, I must ask, were you on the side catching or throwing the grenade?
Mr. Grenade has no friends when he is in transit although being a catcher is infinitely worse than being a pitcher.
I don't know exactly what is going on up north but I think it's another strategic rearrangement of potential and current leaders which will make no real difference in the day to day nuts and bolts of operations both political and military.
The current truce in my opinion is temporary but the result of a number of actions. Mutti and the Fop called Poroshenko to Berlin for a judicious nose slapping in regards to the bombardments. I have no doubts whatsoever that they were not concerned in the least with the daily civilian casualties of Novorossiya civilians, I think what concerned them was the rumored two weeks prior to the truce nightly and deadly accurate counter battery fire from NAF positions against the specific units bombarding the civilians. Ukrops lost a lot of equipment, storages and men, losses they could not sustain with the coming offensive. I also have no doubts that Mutti and Fop know exactly when the offensive will start.
The political situation I'm not sure why this is being done at this moment but the fact is it's happening. I do know that at least one local supplier of information is not in the best of graces with TPTB and perhaps has sensed a sea change in regards to their being tolerated hereabouts. We'll see if eventually Minsk gets shoved down Kiev's throat but I think in the end whatever Kiev is ordered to do Kiev will do, Minsk be damned. So far Kiev has yet to implement a single one of the Minsk protocols in the six months since the signing and the reality is Kiev has no intention of doing anything in regards to Minsk, the only reason they signed Minsk was to get a breather after the Debaltsyevo debacle. There will be no 'Minsk 3', if the orcs are dumb enough to attack again, and I think they will, this time there will be no truce or stand down, NAF will do or die and from what I see NAF will 'do'.
On the other hand winter is coming and Kiev desperately needs gas and coal for the season, gas and coal they can only obtain one way or the other from their two 'enemies', Russia and Novorossiya. Ukrops are not strong enough to take DPR or LPR nor do they have the strength to take the valuable mines. Gas they can, have and always will steal from the transit lines to EU until all gas transit is ceased through Ukraine territory. Coal is a horse of a different color.
Perhaps peace will one day reign in Novorossiya but I think it will not be this day or this year.
Excellent analysis of the situation up there. The Hohol offensive looks to be inevitable at this point, they are fighting against a running clock and there isn't much time left. The thing I will definitely try to watch is how well Europe responds to the needs of their banana republic while their own problems keep piling on. Uncertainty lies ahead and it almost feels like something has to give out soon. Question is how big of an impact that will cause.
P.S. I highly recommend Auslander's book to everyone.
Well it looks like there is something going on in this "Refugee crisis" magically showing in Europe from middle east.. all of them wants to go to **Germany**. There was a commenter that was claiming that 80% of this so called "refugees" are mercenary ISIS fighters ,and that Americans and Turkey are helping to get into the heart of Europe .. The interesting part in all this big claim is that the refugees most of them are males from combat age..
So i just got wondering , that this thing totally possible. France and Germany are opposing US Policies in Ukraine and you have seen how they both are experiencing overnight the major unrest in all Europe after Ukraine.. with suddenly "Terrorist attacks" and "pilot suicide attacks" and now this crisis of Refugees all wanting to go to Germany.
Here one of the refugees ,another male of combat age.. travel 1,000km from middle east with a near clean photo of merkel in Big size . Someone that is suppose to be homeless with a computer photo in color from Merkel.. from where he printed that? he had to had a major printer color ,access to a computer and electricity for that. Showing how he wants to go there? How he managed to keep that photo in so good shape after coming from middle east? he barely carry any clothing or bags but have a big photo in near perfect condition of Merkel..
maybe this is just nothing to worry about.. but is very weird ,and Germany must really open their eyes.. the Americans plans to pressure Europe to cut economic relations with Russia could come in the form of this "REfuges" males of combat age ,arriving in the hundred of thousands to Germany and all friendly nations to Russia.. Notice how nations like Poland or baltic states do not receive a single refugee of them. So i will not be surprised if we see a major unrest in Europe.. created by US Congress NGOs.. in one side many of the refugees and in the other the ultra nationals that also American CIA finance and support.
This Refugees arriving in europe is so many numbers ,in so short time ,had to be helped by turkey to enter in Europe. and many of them could be ISIS cells infiltrated as Trojan Horse in Europe as refugees ,to create Unrest in the nations opposing US policies in Ukraine.
And what will be the best way for the Americans and Turkey to hide any participation of smugling ISIS in Europe? Simply by Anglozionist media warning about the possibility of it..
So if later happens , US and Turkey can claim they warned about this. and have nothing to do with this.. . They do not carry weapons .. but this is not a problem.. US military bases are over all Germany ,italy and Europe and can easily supply weapons to them through its airforce. So Europeans better be eyes open about this refugees specially the ones smiling.
Last edited by Vann7 on Sat Sep 05, 2015 9:36 am; edited 1 time in total
Refat Dedarov, chief executive of Bakhchysarai district in the Republic of Crimea, attempted to express the dominating point of view held by the part of Crimean Tatar people which prefers to stay neutral in their relations with the Russian government. He claimed that, "it is difficult for a nation that was unfairly convicted for the crimes it didn't commit, to establish new contacts immediately". However, he admitted that today Crimean Tatars possess much greater variety of rights, opportunities and the ways to exploit them and he refuses to be called "a bureaucrat".
http://realnoevremya.ru/today/13186
The problem with inter-ethnic relations seems to be worry the whole international society. During the congress in Ankara, Turkey, some people even spoke "genocide" in regards to the events happening with Crimean Tatars. But what is really a mere speculation and what is truth? What is actually happening in Crimea today?
Life is going on its way in Crimea. As Sergey Askyonov said to us: "We must try to make things better than now, but not worse". That's why we work for 10-12 hours every day trying to reach some milestones. Unfortunately, what we have succeeded from Ukraine lies far, far away from Russia's legal framework so nothing will change quickly. For example, the last school was built in 1972 and the last kindergarten in 1976. In order to start constructing roads we have to prepare all documents that we have never used to process in Ukraine. Today, with the help coming from Republic of Tatarstan we are building a schools for 640 pupils with the focus on the study of Crimean Tatar language and two kindergartens.
Regarding oppression. Yes, we have opponents, I call them neighbors despite that they prefer all other kinds of titles. They think only like that, but I am sure that they will understand our opinion. I have visited 2015 World Aquatics Championships in Kazan and listened how the whole Europe was saying during the closure: "Thank you Kazan, thank you Vladimir, thank you Russia"! Of course, Tatarstan is a democratic republic with tolerant people, but I think that in Crimea fans cheering somthing like that would've been booed and hissed away. But at the same time I saw Ukrainian flag raised over Tatneft Arena and I asked if it is true that Ukraine has sent its own team in Russia? And she really has, I confirmed it myself after scanning the whole Internet, Kiev has really sent its team in Tatarstan, to Russia, to that "occupant who stole our Crimea" - they love to claim it very, very much, don't they? Later I called to Ukrainians and ask what was this all about? They told me: "Refat, what does sport have to do with all this, like really??" Well, if I had a grudge against you, I would've not made the difference between your arms, eyes or the whole body. I would've been totally displeased with you without any exceptions.
Is there any rift between Crimean Tatars and others?
Yes, this rift happened in the past. It is difficult for a nation that was unfairly convicted for the crimes it didn't commit, to establish new contacts just immediately. After the secession of Crimea our leaders have begun to conduct such policies that are mostly beneficial not for Tatar people but for the foreign states like Ukraine and others. I think that a leader must be with their people.
Do these Crimean Tatars, who visited the congress in Ankara, still live in the republic today?
They do, ten people or more went there, but I haven't heard any kind of attack against Russia or Putin in their speeches. Their main focus was the observance of the rights of Crimean Tatars, language teaching programs and restoration of ethnic names of our villages. So when I hear someone in Kiev proposing to create an autonomous region for Crimean Tatars, I think that with the same success they can try to endorse the project of naming some airport in the USA after Amet-khan Sultan. Kiev hasn't done anything good for Crimean Tatars for 23 years, but now they are all so kind and willing? Ukraine was not conducting any sound policies regarding Tatars?
Listen to Yatsenuk's speeches he made in the past. Listen what Petr Simonenko had to say. Listen to any Ukrainian presidents. Has anyone of them ever said something about giving privileges to us. Yatsenuk was crying bloody murder how Tatars take over land property. But that was not a choice of our own and we didn't capture private but only unused lands. Moreover, when we returned to Crimea we didn't start demanding like: "This land belonged to my grandfather, give it back now!", no, we asked for compensations from the government. We did everything on our own, we collected all documents and money. Just take a look on our big, well-attended and decorated houses that we raised without any mortgage. Isn't this a sign of a hard-working and determined folk who lives on its homeland? Of course, today people can discuss this even while standing aside, but what kind of patriot are you if you have abandoned you homeland and scurried away? I took a huge effort studying the history of Tatarstan. I know that after Minitmer Shamiev was elected, each Saturday you had been organizing rallies attended by 50 000 people at least. Many words were spoken and Shamiev did not shut the door with a bang, but decided to stay and work together with Tatar people. Now you reap all fruits you sowed, we all can see how good Tatarstan fares today.
But what about us? The last time Crimea had water pipelines repaired was in 1968. We were waiting, voting for new presidents. One day Yushenko took this position, a good president. He won elections, came to Crimea but what next? He didn't solve any problem with land, he didn't do anything at all. When in 1988 my family was coming back here, we were returning to our Rodina, not to Russia, USSR or to Ukraine, we were coming home. But suddenly we were told that our new Rodina is Ukraine.
How many Crimean Tatars left Crimea due to their political preferences?
These numbers vary. I shall say for myself, I was the chief executive in Poshtovskii village council when secession happened. This is one of the biggest villages in Bakhchysarai district with 13 big communities and many lesser ones. According to my information only one person left our district with his family. I cannot claim that he was followed by a thousand or ten thousand families. It would've been too obvious if a thousand Tatar families had left Crimea. Such numbers cannot be confirmed. The main reason for this is purely political nature of the current struggle, it doesn't have feature of inter-ethnic conflict between Russians, Ukrainians and Tatars. Alienate, divide and rule- this is the easiest method conflicting politicians can attempt to use. I don't believe in the massive exodus of Crimean Tatars, this would've been to obvious.
Maybe it is unclear because it is easy to monitor such dynamics in this particular area?
I do know this right because I live here and work for real. I am not an armchair bureaucrat.
By the way, about bureaucracy - why did your predecessor, Ilmi Umerov, resign?
I attended the last rally that he held with people. I saw his videos where he claimed that he is going stay to serve our people. In April he recognized Axyonov's authority, recognized Crimea as integral part of Russia and Putin as our president. Then he went to Kazan for a medical treatment and in August he resigned under the motivation that he "doesn't want to swear an oath". But was it only about an oath? If I hadn't wanted to work within Russian legal framework I would've left my position right after the referendum. But he did this only after 6 months of working and being paid for that. Why did it take so long? Just to finish all applications for his retirement and disability benefits? Something smells fishy with this. Fortunately I can trace up his actions prior to the referendum and after that. Sometime after the referendum he attended the meeting in Khan's Palace, celebrated the Day of Russia and met with Sergey Naryshkin, but now he is telling everyone that Russia is an invader. So if Russia is an invader, why did you celebrate the invasion in the first place? Did you really need 6 months to comprehend that Russia is indeed an invader?
So what is the the main problem today? Political or managerial?
Managerial of course, welfare system is the most important. Folk doesn't need any Maidan or Anti-Maidan to feel that something isn't right. One can spend debating the whole day but ultimately they have to go home. They try to drive by the road but there is no asphalt road. They try to send their kids to a kindergarten but there is no kindergarten. No electricity, no gas supply. So what was the point in spending the whole day screaming about politics? For many years I have always been urging Crimean Tatars to stand united and start doing the real work. And today we have so many rights and opportunities like never before. Under the legal framework offered by the Russian Federation Crimean Tatars now have the opportunity to hold all vital official positions in the areas of our compact settlement. People can enter the offices and prove their competence, because it's futile to wait for an official from a nearby village to come to your help, they have their own duties at home, there is no point in holding grudge that nobody wants to do anything for you. So there might be a problem that Crimean Tatars don't want to participate in politics?
Things change very quickly these days. Even people who preferred only to criticize and protest can be willing to work now. Frankly, the return of Crimea to Russia has greatly inspired us. And after the bridge to Russia is built Bakhchysarai will be able to catch up with Kazan . We have such a great potential in Crimea that can even leave Tatarstan envious. Just look at our forests and mountains. I don't want to boast, I am sorry, but in Tatarstan there is only one mountain barely 200 meters high, while we have Ai-Petri mountain, 1 234 meters high. Our potential is tremendous but we must start working hard.
P.S Graham Philips is on the roll in Crimea. This time he is also speaking to Crimean Tatars, it's in Russian only for now but you can feel the atmosphere.
Regarding West, we must not forget, that the biggest trouble is coming this autumn in the form of big depression, which first marks could be seen with China cooling down. China, Russia and other BRICS members have a big reserve in a large domestic and internal BRICS market, which have around 3 billion people. They also made a lot of changes and reforms, specially after Ufa meeting, when they establish their own BRICS bank, establish exchange in national currencies and to increase internal exchange. The West didn't do any reforms and changes, maybe only some cosmetic ones and they are trapped in large debts. Big depression, which is coming will ruin western economies, but the debts will still be there to pay, so we could expect, that in coming few years western military might will fall dramatically as there will be no money to pay for all those expedition forces, for thousands of bases around the globe and extremely expensive military complex.
Ukraine is running out of time. When this big depression will fully hit the West, they will have no time and no resources to help Kiev junta in their wars and madness. They will be alone in their mess. When Novorussian army destroy and capture majority of Ukrainian armor and artillery, than Ukrainian army will be practically disarmed and than you could expect a lot of raising in other southeastern regions, which are now quiet in a fear. After this offensive, Novorussian march on Kiev will start. I doubt, Novorussia will be allowed to join Russia, but will have to form an independent federal state with federal president, who will be commander of federal army and federal government and parliament. Joining Novorussian republics inside NATO still mean to have NATO on Russian border, but creating independent Novorussia, mean to have independent state between NATO and Russia to play the same rule as Belarus does.
PapaDragon wrote: They had two whole decades to separate themselves from Ukraine and they knew full well what type of scum lived in the western part.
They will be used as pawns because it not only secures Russia geopolitical interest, secures entire Ukraine for Russia but it also guarantees their safety and status.
If they wanted to change borders old school they should have done something long ago. But European fantasy sounds too sweet.
Someone mentioned Bosnia. I do hope they go for that approach because Bosnia even though is firmly in West's grip is totally dysfunctional state, stillborn and prone do disintegration.
This new Bosnia would be owned and operated by Russia.
But we all are still speculating.
I will just add that Serbia was doomed because of short sighted idealiststs who never saw the big picture or bothered to make plans or analyse the situation and environment.
Yes, it is obvious, the people are to blame for their own misfortunes and not being able to see the future. What fucking idiots they are hinding in the basement when they should have had a revolution 24 years ago. What stupid fucks they were in Cuba waiting for a leader like Castro as they should have revolted decades earlier.
PapaDragon wrote: No, no Big D, if you bothered to actually pay attention you would notice that it is Kiev's sugardaddy who is getting more than tad insecure: EU going down the toilet, ISIS taking over, Saudis strangling themselves, Iran on the rise, China getting all sorts of ideas, etc,etc the list just goes on and on and on and on...... and best of all Russia getting to enjoy the show completely shielded from ensuing shitstorm.
Not to mention creeping doom that approaches Kiev&Co with each passing hour..
But you keep your head deep in that sand if it keeps you relaxed.
As for the plan, only thing opposing side (Ukraine) gets to agree to is whether they will go into woodchipper feet-first or head-first.
There will be no happy ending to this story for Ukraine. Just slow, painful submission by Russia and cold abandonment by their pimps in the west.
BTW, how did you do in front of Rada the other day Big D? Did it hurt?
Yes yes, I guess I have to be happy about the short time you manged to keep it civil.
PapaDragon does raise quite a few good points. Sure, the Novorossiya game plan is continuing onward with small adjustments here and there. But there was never more indication that the status quo that has been in place for all those years is gone especially with the points that PapaDragon has brought up. It will definitely be interesting to see how the coming months go down and all the signs of a brewing storm are present, in Ukraine and in the West especially. As J.R.R. Tolkien's character Gandalf said, "The board is set, the pieces are moving. We come to it at last... The great battle of our time" (Return of the King).
Anyway, I must ask, were you on the side catching or throwing the grenade?
Mr. Grenade has no friends when he is in transit although being a catcher is infinitely worse than being a pitcher.
I don't know exactly what is going on up north but I think it's another strategic rearrangement of potential and current leaders which will make no real difference in the day to day nuts and bolts of operations both political and military.
The current truce in my opinion is temporary but the result of a number of actions. Mutti and the Fop called Poroshenko to Berlin for a judicious nose slapping in regards to the bombardments. I have no doubts whatsoever that they were not concerned in the least with the daily civilian casualties of Novorossiya civilians, I think what concerned them was the rumored two weeks prior to the truce nightly and deadly accurate counter battery fire from NAF positions against the specific units bombarding the civilians. Ukrops lost a lot of equipment, storages and men, losses they could not sustain with the coming offensive. I also have no doubts that Mutti and Fop know exactly when the offensive will start.
The political situation I'm not sure why this is being done at this moment but the fact is it's happening. I do know that at least one local supplier of information is not in the best of graces with TPTB and perhaps has sensed a sea change in regards to their being tolerated hereabouts. We'll see if eventually Minsk gets shoved down Kiev's throat but I think in the end whatever Kiev is ordered to do Kiev will do, Minsk be damned. So far Kiev has yet to implement a single one of the Minsk protocols in the six months since the signing and the reality is Kiev has no intention of doing anything in regards to Minsk, the only reason they signed Minsk was to get a breather after the Debaltsyevo debacle. There will be no 'Minsk 3', if the orcs are dumb enough to attack again, and I think they will, this time there will be no truce or stand down, NAF will do or die and from what I see NAF will 'do'.
On the other hand winter is coming and Kiev desperately needs gas and coal for the season, gas and coal they can only obtain one way or the other from their two 'enemies', Russia and Novorossiya. Ukrops are not strong enough to take DPR or LPR nor do they have the strength to take the valuable mines. Gas they can, have and always will steal from the transit lines to EU until all gas transit is ceased through Ukraine territory. Coal is a horse of a different color.
Perhaps peace will one day reign in Novorossiya but I think it will not be this day or this year.
Excellent analysis of the situation up there. The Hohol offensive looks to be inevitable at this point, they are fighting against a running clock and there isn't much time left. The thing I will definitely try to watch is how well Europe responds to the needs of their banana republic while their own problems keep piling on. Uncertainty lies ahead and it almost feels like something has to give out soon. Question is how big of an impact that will cause.
P.S. I highly recommend Auslander's book to everyone.
We are keeping a pretty close eye on the situation up there, all of it, as we can. Some interesting conversations were had this late morning and from what we understand there will be no major changes in the handling of DPR/LPR nor NAF.
Thank you for the kind words on the book, I am most pleased that you have enjoyed the read. For those of you who don't know of it, it is this link in the Russia section of this blog:
The official reason why Purgin was ousted was that he acted against the interests of the People's Council. The specifics are that he was under the influence of Alexei Alexandrov, a truely evil man who waved Russian flag and wanted to be part of Russia, well, what a fucking clown, traitor even. Then the most specific reason about Purgin is that he aided Alexandrov in entering DNR. Clearly both should have known that a secret descision was made to ban Alexandrov from entering DNR, but these clowns tried to return home, what! are they fucking stupid! And then this asshole Purgin argues with the border guards to let Alexandrov cross when he should have known he was commiting a crimminal offence by aiding a person who had been pronounced a danger to the state. That neither knew this is no excuse as these traitors should have had magical psychic powers. Let them sit in the basement wondering if everyday will be their last.
The case of Nikolai Bukharin, and others, comes to mind....
Last edited by Khepesh on Sat Sep 05, 2015 10:34 am; edited 1 time in total
Ruthenius wrote:Refat Dedarov, chief executive of Bakhchysarai district in the Republic of Crimea, attempted to express the dominating point of view held by the part of Crimean Tatar people which prefers to stay neutral in their relations with the Russian government. He claimed that, "it is difficult for a nation that was unfairly convicted for the crimes it didn't commit, to establish new contacts immediately". However, he admitted that today Crimean Tatars possess much greater variety of rights, opportunities and the ways to exploit them and he refuses to be called "a bureaucrat".
http://realnoevremya.ru/today/13186
The problem with inter-ethnic relations seems to be worry the whole international society. During the congress in Ankara, Turkey, some people even spoke "genocide" in regards to the events happening with Crimean Tatars. But what is really a mere speculation and what is truth? What is actually happening in Crimea today?
Life is going on its way in Crimea. As Sergey Askyonov said to us: "We must try to make things better than now, but not worse". That's why we work for 10-12 hours every day trying to reach some milestones. Unfortunately, what we have succeeded from Ukraine lies far, far away from Russia's legal framework so nothing will change quickly. For example, the last school was built in 1972 and the last kindergarten in 1976. In order to start constructing roads we have to prepare all documents that we have never used to process in Ukraine. Today, with the help coming from Republic of Tatarstan we are building a schools for 640 pupils with the focus on the study of Crimean Tatar language and two kindergartens.
Regarding oppression. Yes, we have opponents, I call them neighbors despite that they prefer all other kinds of titles. They think only like that, but I am sure that they will understand our opinion. I have visited 2015 World Aquatics Championships in Kazan and listened how the whole Europe was saying during the closure: "Thank you Kazan, thank you Vladimir, thank you Russia"! Of course, Tatarstan is a democratic republic with tolerant people, but I think that in Crimea fans cheering somthing like that would've been booed and hissed away. But at the same time I saw Ukrainian flag raised over Tatneft Arena and I asked if it is true that Ukraine has sent its own team in Russia? And she really has, I confirmed it myself after scanning the whole Internet, Kiev has really sent its team in Tatarstan, to Russia, to that "occupant who stole our Crimea" - they love to claim it very, very much, don't they? Later I called to Ukrainians and ask what was this all about? They told me: "Refat, what does sport have to do with all this, like really??" Well, if I had a grudge against you, I would've not made the difference between your arms, eyes or the whole body. I would've been totally displeased with you without any exceptions.
Is there any rift between Crimean Tatars and others?
Yes, this rift happened in the past. It is difficult for a nation that was unfairly convicted for the crimes it didn't commit, to establish new contacts just immediately. After the secession of Crimea our leaders have begun to conduct such policies that are mostly beneficial not for Tatar people but for the foreign states like Ukraine and others. I think that a leader must be with their people.
Do these Crimean Tatars, who visited the congress in Ankara, still live in the republic today?
They do, ten people or more went there, but I haven't heard any kind of attack against Russia or Putin in their speeches. Their main focus was the observance of the rights of Crimean Tatars, language teaching programs and restoration of ethnic names of our villages. So when I hear someone in Kiev proposing to create an autonomous region for Crimean Tatars, I think that with the same success they can try to endorse the project of naming some airport in the USA after Amet-khan Sultan. Kiev hasn't done anything good for Crimean Tatars for 23 years, but now they are all so kind and willing? Ukraine was not conducting any sound policies regarding Tatars?
Listen to Yatsenuk's speeches he made in the past. Listen what Petr Simonenko had to say. Listen to any Ukrainian presidents. Has anyone of them ever said something about giving privileges to us. Yatsenuk was crying bloody murder how Tatars take over land property. But that was not a choice of our own and we didn't capture private but only unused lands. Moreover, when we returned to Crimea we didn't start demanding like: "This land belonged to my grandfather, give it back now!", no, we asked for compensations from the government. We did everything on our own, we collected all documents and money. Just take a look on our big, well-attended and decorated houses that we raised without any mortgage. Isn't this a sign of a hard-working and determined folk who lives on its homeland? Of course, today people can discuss this even while standing aside, but what kind of patriot are you if you have abandoned you homeland and scurried away? I took a huge effort studying the history of Tatarstan. I know that after Minitmer Shamiev was elected, each Saturday you had been organizing rallies attended by 50 000 people at least. Many words were spoken and Shamiev did not shut the door with a bang, but decided to stay and work together with Tatar people. Now you reap all fruits you sowed, we all can see how good Tatarstan fares today.
But what about us? The last time Crimea had water pipelines repaired was in 1968. We were waiting, voting for new presidents. One day Yushenko took this position, a good president. He won elections, came to Crimea but what next? He didn't solve any problem with land, he didn't do anything at all. When in 1988 my family was coming back here, we were returning to our Rodina, not to Russia, USSR or to Ukraine, we were coming home. But suddenly we were told that our new Rodina is Ukraine.
How many Crimean Tatars left Crimea due to their political preferences?
These numbers vary. I shall say for myself, I was the chief executive in Poshtovskii village council when secession happened. This is one of the biggest villages in Bakhchysarai district with 13 big communities and many lesser ones. According to my information only one person left our district with his family. I cannot claim that he was followed by a thousand or ten thousand families. It would've been too obvious if a thousand Tatar families had left Crimea. Such numbers cannot be confirmed. The main reason for this is purely political nature of the current struggle, it doesn't have feature of inter-ethnic conflict between Russians, Ukrainians and Tatars. Alienate, divide and rule- this is the easiest method conflicting politicians can attempt to use. I don't believe in the massive exodus of Crimean Tatars, this would've been to obvious.
Maybe it is unclear because it is easy to monitor such dynamics in this particular area?
I do know this right because I live here and work for real. I am not an armchair bureaucrat.
By the way, about bureaucracy - why did your predecessor, Ilmi Umerov, resign?
I attended the last rally that he held with people. I saw his videos where he claimed that he is going stay to serve our people. In April he recognized Axyonov's authority, recognized Crimea as integral part of Russia and Putin as our president. Then he went to Kazan for a medical treatment and in August he resigned under the motivation that he "doesn't want to swear an oath". But was it only about an oath? If I hadn't wanted to work within Russian legal framework I would've left my position right after the referendum. But he did this only after 6 months of working and being paid for that. Why did it take so long? Just to finish all applications for his retirement and disability benefits? Something smells fishy with this. Fortunately I can trace up his actions prior to the referendum and after that. Sometime after the referendum he attended the meeting in Khan's Palace, celebrated the Day of Russia and met with Sergey Naryshkin, but now he is telling everyone that Russia is an invader. So if Russia is an invader, why did you celebrate the invasion in the first place? Did you really need 6 months to comprehend that Russia is indeed an invader?
So what is the the main problem today? Political or managerial?
Managerial of course, welfare system is the most important. Folk doesn't need any Maidan or Anti-Maidan to feel that something isn't right. One can spend debating the whole day but ultimately they have to go home. They try to drive by the road but there is no asphalt road. They try to send their kids to a kindergarten but there is no kindergarten. No electricity, no gas supply. So what was the point in spending the whole day screaming about politics? For many years I have always been urging Crimean Tatars to stand united and start doing the real work. And today we have so many rights and opportunities like never before. Under the legal framework offered by the Russian Federation Crimean Tatars now have the opportunity to hold all vital official positions in the areas of our compact settlement. People can enter the offices and prove their competence, because it's futile to wait for an official from a nearby village to come to your help, they have their own duties at home, there is no point in holding grudge that nobody wants to do anything for you. So there might be a problem that Crimean Tatars don't want to participate in politics?
Things change very quickly these days. Even people who preferred only to criticize and protest can be willing to work now. Frankly, the return of Crimea to Russia has greatly inspired us. And after the bridge to Russia is built Bakhchysarai will be able to catch up with Kazan . We have such a great potential in Crimea that can even leave Tatarstan envious. Just look at our forests and mountains. I don't want to boast, I am sorry, but in Tatarstan there is only one mountain barely 200 meters high, while we have Ai-Petri mountain, 1 234 meters high. Our potential is tremendous but we must start working hard.
P.S Graham Philips is on the roll in Crimea. This time he is also speaking to Crimean Tatars, it's in Russian only for now but you can feel the atmosphere.
I will comment on this later today, got to head out for a while. Suffice it to say that during the troubles of late February and March of last year, the Tatari stood shoulder to shoulder with us through all the events.
If people are not sure about the current situation and need guidance about what to think, then good news from Главлит http://fortruss.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/donetsk-republic-will-not-be-undermined.html
Tomorrow is Sunday, but this may change due to political situation and necessity to catch traitors off guard. May be necessary to declare that black is white and vise versa. Making up to down is being worked on as gravity still holds out of date dangerous reactionary views.
And btw, a new word is being used to describe Purgin and his faction, "Maximalists". Well, clearly this is simply a variation of "Bolshevik". If so, then those appossed to Purgin must be "Minimalists" or "Mensheviks". So, were is history, where is that trash can......
Khepesh wrote:If people are not sure about the current situation and need guidance about what to think, then good news from Главлит http://fortruss.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/donetsk-republic-will-not-be-undermined.html
Tomorrow is Sunday, but this may change due to political situation and necessity to catch traitors off guard. May be necessary to declare that black is white and vise versa. Making up to down is being worked on as gravity still holds out of date dangerous reactionary views.
And btw, a new word is being used to describe Purgin and his faction, "Maximalists". Well, clearly this is simply a variation of "Bolshevik". If so, then those appossed to Purgin must be "Minimalists" or "Mensheviks". So, were is history, where is that trash can......
I wonder what the supporters of the republics think about all this; do they understand the need to be used as pawns for Moscow or is there resentment?
Khepesh wrote:The specifics are that he was under the influence of Alexei Alexandrov, a truely evil man who waved Russian flag and wanted to be part of Russia, well, what a fucking clown, traitor even.
Khepesh wrote:The specifics are that he was under the influence of Alexei Alexandrov, a truely evil man who waved Russian flag and wanted to be part of Russia, well, what a fucking clown, traitor even.
Want Novo to be a part of Russia = Traitor ?
While my last several posts should be seen as deep sarcasm, unfortunately the reason why Alexandrov and Purgin have been purged is that their desire for Donbass to be part of Russia is seen as being a danger to DNR, in other words, treason.
The aid convoys continue, but why is this stuff not sent by rail? Is it lack of local trucks to distribute it or is it that the Russians want, as far as they can, to keep it out of the hands of local 'entrepreneurs'?
KHIMKI, September 5. /TASS/. Russia's emergencies ministry plans to send over to Donbass in September three humanitarian convoys, Deputy Minister Vladimir Stepanov told reporters on Saturday. "In September we continue working as planned," he said in response to a question regarding delivery of humanitarian aid. "We plan three convoys before end of the month."
Over the conflict in Ukraine's Donbass, Russia has sent over to the region 37 humanitarian convoys of the emergencies ministry. Since August, 2014, Russia delivered to Donbass over 45,000 tonnes of humanitarian cargo.
Khepesh wrote:The specifics are that he was under the influence of Alexei Alexandrov, a truely evil man who waved Russian flag and wanted to be part of Russia, well, what a fucking clown, traitor even.
Want Novo to be a part of Russia = Traitor ?
While my last several posts should be seen as deep sarcasm, unfortunately the reason why Alexandrov and Purgin have been purged is that their desire for Donbass to be part of Russia is seen as being a danger to DNR, in other words, treason.
Not a treason, but this is realpolitics. They bring this idea at the wrong time and talk too laud. Even Zaharchenko was talking for some time about forming Novorussia as common state if Minsk agreement will fall, not joining Russia. They have to go by steps. First to form federal state of Novorussia, where other southeastern republics could join. When this mess will be over, than they could talk about joining in Russia or just joining Eurasian Union as independent state. Also Russia want to have an independent state as tampon between NATO and Russian borders, not NATO enemy on Russian border.
JohninMK wrote:[ Sorry, what cynicism? It has been clear from the start of the civil war that Moscow wanted Donbas to stay in Ukraine. It had major strategic reasons for this and anyone in Donbas who thought otherwise was deluding themselves.
OK, Russia would stop them being wiped out and helped negotiate a deal, Minsk 2, that gave them a future but in the long run they had to come to terms with being under the same roof as the rest of Ukraine. It is down to both sides to get themselves into a position where this is possible, probably a far harder problem in Kiev tho' with the RS still banging away.
The world is now facing far bigger problems than Ukraine which is likely to be told to stop being a naughty boy and to go away and sort itself out.
The thing here is that when the people of Donbass saw what happened in Crimea, and then saw crowds of people line the streets of Rostov cheering columns of troops heading towards the border, they thought help was coming, overt help. Then the very fact of voentorg tells them that they are not being thrown to Kiev. For them, it is better to be part of Russia now and not used as pawns.
They had two whole decades to separate themselves from Ukraine and they knew full well what type of scum lived in the western part.
They will be used as pawns because it not only secures Russia geopolitical interest, secures entire Ukraine for Russia but it also guarantees their safety and status.
If they wanted to change borders old school they should have done something long ago. But European fantasy sounds too sweet.
Someone mentioned Bosnia. I do hope they go for that approach because Bosnia even though is firmly in West's grip is totally dysfunctional state, stillborn and prone do disintegration.
This new Bosnia would be owned and operated by Russia.
But we all are still speculating.
I will just add that Serbia was doomed because of short sighted idealiststs who never saw the big picture or bothered to make plans or analyse the situation and environment.
Why should the East Ukrainians have changed borders and separated from Ukraine despite being no less Ukrainian than the others? The big mistake they made was letting anti-Russian narrative and anti-Russian nationalism spread and take over the country rather than opposing it with adequate means.
Khepesh wrote:The specifics are that he was under the influence of Alexei Alexandrov, a truely evil man who waved Russian flag and wanted to be part of Russia, well, what a fucking clown, traitor even.
Want Novo to be a part of Russia = Traitor ?
While my last several posts should be seen as deep sarcasm, unfortunately the reason why Alexandrov and Purgin have been purged is that their desire for Donbass to be part of Russia is seen as being a danger to DNR, in other words, treason.
Not a treason, but this is realpolitics. They bring this idea at the wrong time and talk too laud. Even Zaharchenko was talking for some time about forming Novorussia as common state if Minsk agreement will fall, not joining Russia. They have to go by steps. First to form federal state of Novorussia, where other southeastern republics could join. When this mess will be over, than they could talk about joining in Russia or just joining Eurasian Union as independent state. Also Russia want to have an independent state as tampon between NATO and Russian borders, not NATO enemy on Russian border.
If it is not treason then this statement, repeated ad infinitum, should be explained " Alexandrov has made a number of political statements that are inconsistent with the policy of the entire state". The news outlets only repeat this and that Purgin had fallen under his influence. What statements did he make? why is there no in depth explanation. We all know, yet we are treated as if we have all removed our brains. What happens next, all those who last Spring waved Russian flags to be arrested? anybody who openly expresses the opinion that Donbass should be part of Russia will be arrested? Gulag returns? assasinations of those with undesirable views occurs? ooops, happened....
1. If Donbass is re-integrated to Ukraine doesn't it mean that the NAF will have to lay down it's arms and give the border control to Kiev?
2. If the NAF lays down it's arms doesn't it mean that the Kiev regime will have a free reign to suppress any dissent in Donbass, kill/imprison everyone that took part of the war and impose it's own will and laws on the Donbass people? Doesn't it mean that the Right Sector will roam free in the streets of Donetsk and Lugansk?
3. With this scenario will Russia be unable to stop Ukraine from joining NATO and having NATO bases in Donetsk and Kharkov?
I make a point about Donbass not breaking from Ukraine earlier, apart from it being "treason" of course.... Let it be presumed that only people of 18 and over will be taking part in any revolution. Then even 18 year olds in 1991 will now be 42, and 18 year olds do not organise and lead revolutions, usually those from mid twenties to thirties and forties do this. That means that any prospective leader of a revolution in Donbass in 1991 would now be a grandad, yet the vast majority actively involved now, particulary the fighting, were not old enough or not even born in 1991. How can some kid in a basement be blamed for what his grandparents failed to do 24 years ago, and how can they have fully known they needed to do something, fucking crystal ball? How can a twenty year old soldier at the front be blamed. Let's stop blaiming the people of Donbass for the crisis, it stinks like ukrops and their supporters blaiming Donbass civilians for their own deaths....
Neutrality wrote:Maybe this is Moscow just doing some "perestanovka" amongst the ranks of the DNR and streamlining it because they are expecting Kiev to restart the war. This is just me thinking out loud so don't take me seriously.
Despite the initial gloomy feelings, actually fucking rage I agree that what we see is not what it seems, and while I only just said that war receeds as an option, it is now entirely up to Kiev, so if it is thought they will attack, then any responce is entirely from Donbass, led by politicians who simply want to remain in Ukraine and want regime change in Kiev. Nothing to do with Russia, so move along, move along.....
The West will not see it this way.
Any military victory, any successful repelling of Kiev attack by Donbass will be seen as a hostile move against Ukraine by the West and Russia will be seen as the guilty part no matter who is in charge of Donbass, whether they are in favor of joining Russia or staying part of Ukraine. The only solution that suits the West is a total surrender of Donbass without conditions.
JohninMK wrote:[ Sorry, what cynicism? It has been clear from the start of the civil war that Moscow wanted Donbas to stay in Ukraine. It had major strategic reasons for this and anyone in Donbas who thought otherwise was deluding themselves.
OK, Russia would stop them being wiped out and helped negotiate a deal, Minsk 2, that gave them a future but in the long run they had to come to terms with being under the same roof as the rest of Ukraine. It is down to both sides to get themselves into a position where this is possible, probably a far harder problem in Kiev tho' with the RS still banging away.
The world is now facing far bigger problems than Ukraine which is likely to be told to stop being a naughty boy and to go away and sort itself out.
The thing here is that when the people of Donbass saw what happened in Crimea, and then saw crowds of people line the streets of Rostov cheering columns of troops heading towards the border, they thought help was coming, overt help. Then the very fact of voentorg tells them that they are not being thrown to Kiev. For them, it is better to be part of Russia now and not used as pawns.
I agree with you but sadly the way the International community, OK US, views this is that a chunk of country can't just be broken away unless the US say OK. Russia is giving as much aid as it can within that constraint. I am sure that the Kiev side is being used by the US as a pawn, but then they really f*cked up the plan with their incompetence. I don't see Donbas being used by the Russians in the same cynical way, it is much more a 'help a brother in trouble' attitude I detect but with a very real 'there are limits and you will do as I say if I help' aspect to that help. It is a very sad situation as it is difficult to see a painless way forward.
The problem is that Russia is not able to just say "fuck off" to the West and do as it pleases. Not even in Russia's own backyard in a pro-Russian Donbass.
To Vann7: How do you explain that over 100,000 people arrived from Syria in 2015? If they're all ISIS mercenaries, then how many men does ISIS need to have if they can afford to lose 100,000 without a sweat? Two million?
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. They do not carry weapons .. but this is not a problem.. US military bases are over all Germany ,italy and Europe and can easily supply weapons to them through 
I agree that what we see is not what it seems, and while I only just said that war receeds as an option, it is now entirely up to Kiev, so if it is thought they will attack, then any responce is entirely from Donbass, led by politicians who simply want to remain in Ukraine and want regime change in Kiev. Nothing to do with Russia, so move along, move along.....