The Situation in the Ukraine. #21

JohninMK wrote:[
Sorry, what cynicism? It has been clear from the start of the civil war that Moscow wanted Donbas to stay in Ukraine. It had major strategic reasons for this and anyone in Donbas who thought otherwise was deluding themselves.

OK, Russia would stop them being wiped out and helped negotiate a deal, Minsk 2, that gave them a future but in the long run they had to come to terms with being under the same roof as the rest of Ukraine. It is down to both sides to get themselves into a position where this is possible, probably a far harder problem in Kiev tho' with the RS still banging away.

The world is now facing far bigger problems than Ukraine which is likely to be told to stop being a naughty boy and to go away and sort itself out.

The thing here is that when the people of Donbass saw what happened in Crimea, and then saw crowds of people line the streets of Rostov cheering columns of troops heading towards the border, they thought help was coming, overt help. Then the very fact of voentorg tells them that they are not being thrown to Kiev. For them, it is better to be part of Russia now and not used as pawns.

Rozhin broke silence, but in a rather muted manner, so I link to chervonec-001 who has much to say http://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/848438.html

Maybe this is Moscow just doing some "perestanovka" amongst the ranks of the DNR and streamlining it because they are expecting Kiev to restart the war. This is just me thinking out loud so don't take me seriously.

Khepesh wrote:Rozhin broke silence, but in a rather muted manner, so I link to chervonec-001 who has much to say http://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/848438.html

Oh boy, the regular "slili" horsecrap again. This thing is beyond the scope that people see IMHO.

Call me crazy but I have a suspicion this is the DNR together with Moscow, trying to make it look as if DNR is about to explode. Politically that is. Kiev, obviously following this news, might see it as a chance to restart the war while the DNR appears to destabilize itself from within. Highly sophisticated bait if true.

Neutrality wrote:Maybe this is Moscow just doing some "perestanovka" amongst the ranks of the DNR and streamlining it because they are expecting Kiev to restart the war. This is just me thinking out loud so don't take me seriously.

Despite the initial gloomy feelings, actually fucking rage I agree that what we see is not what it seems, and while I only just said that war receeds as an option, it is now entirely up to Kiev, so if it is thought they will attack, then any responce is entirely from Donbass, led by politicians who simply want to remain in Ukraine and want regime change in Kiev. Nothing to do with Russia, so move along, move along.....

Neutrality wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Rozhin broke silence, but in a rather muted manner, so I link to chervonec-001 who has much to say http://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/848438.html

Oh boy, the regular "slili" horsecrap again. This thing is beyond the scope that people see IMHO.

He's over the top, but entertaining and at least he says something while most are oddly quiet

Khepesh wrote:

Neutrality wrote:Maybe this is Moscow just doing some "perestanovka" amongst the ranks of the DNR and streamlining it because they are expecting Kiev to restart the war. This is just me thinking out loud so don't take me seriously.

Despite the initial gloomy feelings, actually fucking rage  I agree that what we see is not what it seems, and while I only just said that war receeds as an option, it is now entirely up to Kiev, so if it is thought they will attack, then any responce is entirely from Donbass, led by politicians who simply want to remain in Ukraine and want regime change in Kiev. Nothing to do with Russia, so move along, move along.....

Quoting myself, perhaps you missed my edit:

Call me crazy but I have a suspicion this is the DNR together with Moscow, trying to make it look as if DNR is about to explode. Politically that is. Kiev, obviously following this news, might see it as a chance to restart the war while the DNR appears to destabilize itself from within. Highly sophisticated bait if true.

Khepesh wrote:

JohninMK wrote:[
Sorry, what cynicism? It has been clear from the start of the civil war that Moscow wanted Donbas to stay in Ukraine. It had major strategic reasons for this and anyone in Donbas who thought otherwise was deluding themselves.

OK, Russia would stop them being wiped out and helped negotiate a deal, Minsk 2, that gave them a future but in the long run they had to come to terms with being under the same roof as the rest of Ukraine. It is down to both sides to get themselves into a position where this is possible, probably a far harder problem in Kiev tho' with the RS still banging away.

The world is now facing far bigger problems than Ukraine which is likely to be told to stop being a naughty boy and to go away and sort itself out.

The thing here is that when the people of Donbass saw what happened in Crimea, and then saw crowds of people line the streets of Rostov cheering columns of troops heading towards the border, they thought help was coming, overt help. Then the very fact of voentorg tells them that they are not being thrown to Kiev. For them, it is better to be part of Russia now and not used as pawns.

I agree with you but sadly the way the International community, OK US, views this is that a chunk of country can't just be broken away unless the US say OK. Russia is giving as much aid as it can within that constraint. I am sure that the Kiev side is being used by the US as a pawn, but then they really f*cked up the plan with their incompetence. I don't see Donbas being used by the Russians in the same cynical way, it is much more a 'help a brother in trouble' attitude I detect but with a very real 'there are limits and you will do as I say if I help' aspect to that help. It is a very sad situation as it is difficult to see a painless way forward.

One interesting question could be the ousted leaders opinion on the upcoming elections, anybody know where they stood?

Dforce wrote:One interesting question could be the ousted leaders opinion on the upcoming elections, anybody know where they stood?

No but that's a really good point you are making.

JohninMK wrote:

Dforce wrote:One interesting question could be the ousted leaders opinion on the upcoming elections, anybody know where they stood?

No but that's a really good point you are making.

Even though Kiev is raising a stink about it, the scheduled elections are only municipal or local ones.

And just to clarify, their argument is that all elections have to be done under control of Kiev.

Dforce wrote:One interesting question could be the ousted leaders opinion on the upcoming elections, anybody know where they stood?

In what why?

I want to be frank here GarryB. And to you RodinaZombie as well, you made a post on this earlier.

Not to question your decisions or anything, and Flagship is being too flagrant by posting photos and names - but just so none of us are under any illusions here - it's either the Ukrainian soldiers or the civilian population in the Donbass.
They aren't both coming away from this, at least while the war's still going.
And I know who'd I would rather have survive.

I know many of them have nothing to do with the blatant and constant war-crimes being committed every day against the civilian population there. I don't really care either; either way they are unwelcome invaders, if they're not killing civilians then they're covering for the people that are and keeping the artillery guns firing, so to speak. If they're not going to make the effort to avoid conscription, avoid the war, avoid covering for their murderous comrades than why should anyone make the effort to avoid killing them in combat?

Thank you for your frankness.

But I would say in return that the idea that it is either all the Ukrainian soldiers dying or all the civilians in the Donbass dying are actually two of the least likely outcomes... with respect.

What will most likely happen is x number of Ukrainian soldiers will die and x number of Donbass civilians will also die and eventually in washington it will be decided that it will end... now that might be because of pressure from Russia or India or China or who knows where else... it certainly wont be brussels as they have no guts and no opinion of their own.

There can only be a political solution because there is no military one... neither side has the military power to force an outcome.

The question however is when... the best solution there is now, but we know it wont be any time soon so people on both sides will continue to die and each death will be used as a justification for that side for their fight and their cause.

Perhaps the people of the Donbass need to find oil.

The sad thing is that washington either needs to lose interest of gain a new interest that makes them think an end is in their interests...

Maybe an economic collapse in the US will do it?

Or an alien invasion.

franco wrote:

Dforce wrote:One interesting question could be the ousted leaders opinion on the upcoming elections, anybody know where they stood?

In what why?

Well, since Russia wants Minsk II implemeted to the letter I would assume that the Kremlin is against these local elections not in accordance with the agreement. It MIGHT be a reason behind this, and good old Flagship had a point when he talked aboout these elections as a decisive point in time.

Dforce wrote:

franco wrote:

Dforce wrote:One interesting question could be the ousted leaders opinion on the upcoming elections, anybody know where they stood?

In what why?

Well, since Russia wants Minsk II implemeted to the letter I would assume that the Kremlin is against these local elections not in accordance with the agreement. It MIGHT be a reason behind this, and good old Flagship had a point when he talked aboout these elections as a decisive point in time.

The local elections are also not being held in most of Donetsk and Luhansk regions under Kiev control. And the Minsk agreement called for consultations between Kiev and the Donbass in regards to holding the elections... Kiev said to hell with that. Our way or no way.

I strongly suspect these Donbass politicians like most were in favor of the municipal elections being held. IMO the problem is they were pushing for a referendum to join Russia, something I don't see the Kremlin interested in at all.

New Ukrainian army "recruits" , what to say?











Don`t get me wrong , i don`t post this to laugh at this people but because most of them are questionable soldiery material , some of them look like pensioners....

This really starts to look like Hitlers Volksturm in 1945....

Dforce wrote:

franco wrote:

Dforce wrote:One interesting question could be the ousted leaders opinion on the upcoming elections, anybody know where they stood?

In what why?

Well, since Russia wants Minsk II implemeted to the letter I would assume that the Kremlin is against these local elections not in accordance with the agreement. It MIGHT be a reason behind this, and good old Flagship had a point when he talked aboout these elections as a decisive point in time.

Purgin was talking a lot lately about referendum on joining Russia that should be done together with local elections. That's why he was dismissed and when Pushillin talks about him falling under the influence of Alexandrov and about Alexandrov that "instead of doing his job, Alexei Alexandrov has made a number of political statements running counter to the policy of the entire state" it's pretty clear what's going on here. A signal from Moscow came and the change was made because Russia needs Donbass in Ukraine and that's it.

And Franco, I'm sorry about my rant the other day, didn't read your post correctly but now I see that you're with the good guys.

GarryB wrote:
The sad thing is that washington either needs to lose interest of gain a new interest that makes them think an end is in their interests...

Maybe an economic collapse in the US will do it?

Or an alien invasion.

Europe is currently undergoing this very thing. Although "invasion" is the wrong term. More like alien inundation. Europe is playing Russian roulette, except with five bullets instead of one, curious as to how many different ways they can blow their own brains out. Maybe this will be cause enough for Washington to reconsider its current stance, or at least ease off.

zg18 wrote:New Ukrainian army "recruits" , what to say?



Don`t get me wrong , i don`t post this to laugh at this people but because most of them are questionable soldiery material , some of them look like pensioners....

This really starts to look like Hitlers Volksturm in 1945....

The NAF troop quality hasn't been any better either to be completely honest, difference comes from that the soldiers in the NAF chose to fight instead of conscription.

Also, the kid near the right end of the front row (first picture) can't be any older than sixteen...

PapaDragon wrote:
This^^

Chain of command.

THE most important element of every military undertaking. Without it even the most basic plans turn to sh*t. Believe me, I seen it happen too many times.

And Novo is in a situation where a lot of complex planning is required to keep them in one piece.

This is important, since we now know that the Russian gameplan have not changed. It started to become a tad bit insecure with the switch of currency, but nothing has changed.

Naturally, this does not make it any easier to get the oppsing side to agree to this goal, but at least the goal is the same.