The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

No, Kiev has the option of a peaceful resolution by ending the ATO and withdrawing from the territory of DNR and LNR. No matter how morally incompetent they are in Kiev, they are not actually mentally retarded, and they will not sit and let their forces bleed to death or for Ukraine to collapse, they will act before either happens. The initiative is with them and Washington, and as I wrote, in a matter of survival at the end game, the initiative to end the war will be entirely with Kiev.

This is why the Kiev junta is profoundly immoral. Any action they take other than to stop ATO and withdraw will lead to death and ruin for them. A pity that ordinary people have died and will continue to die because of the vanity and greed of the "elite".

Couple great posts papa and Khepesh, I agree completely.

That for the elite i Kiev war is the only option is quite clear, but i think we will be waiting until we see a new man/woman in the White House before we will see a conclusion to this war.

It's possible that the current US apathy or confused policy on what to do with Ukraine at the moment is simply due to the fact Obama and co are thinking more about which removal vans to hire and what colour they should paint the new house than how to deal with a failed state of their creation. Ok that's a it jokey but its clear this lack of directiion In Washington will change after the election.

From burbuja.info

pete john ‏@petejohn10 3 h

#DONBASS #DONETSK #UKROPSWAR MASSIVE AMOUNT #UKIE TANKS, ARMOUR AT #VOLNOVKAHA FOR OFFENSIVE WHEN
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#DONBASS #DONETSK #UKROPSWAR Enormes tanques CANTIDAD #UKIE, ARMOUR AT #VOLNOVKAHA PARA ofensivo cuando empiece









---------- Post added 29-mar-2016 at 15:16 ----------

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58 min

To #Zoryanoye 12 km from the frontline more #Ukraine equipment arrived:3 MLRS BM-21 GRAD.
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Photos show complete tank battalion of 1 Seperate Tank Brigade They seem to move small units of this brigade about, sometimes only a company, maybe to back up weaker formations, maybe as "trolling" simply to keep everybody guessing about where schwerpunkt of any offensive will be. If it's only one of the three tank battalions at Dokuchaevsk, it still signifies potential serious intent. If it can be seen that the entire brigade is there, then it is significant as it can be expected that that brigade will be used either as breakthru or counterstrike unit for where the main action could be. The last time they saw combat was at Novosvetlovka in September 2014, and got smashed....

It takes one decent artillery barrage to wipe that out.

Never underestimate your enemy. The orcs have had a year to recover from the Debaltsyevo and Aerodrome disasters and you can rest assured that they have had the best instructors and trainers in the world since those events and the trains heading east from certain entities in east Europe, and not so east Europe, have been running non stop with hardware from old storages.

This is going to be one hell of a fight and NAF has no other course of action besides total victory.

I don't believe the UkrOps will launch an offensive during the US pre-election period. Because, lets face it, not even the Western media can produce an even remotely believable narrative of a peace-loving, ceasefire-obeying-and-totally-not-breaking offensive. Besides, no amount of "advisers" and mercenaries can tilt the odds in favour of Kiev, especially now that manpower rotations took place and the rebels have been raised to a level far above the July 2014 one. And back then the most battleworthy of UkrOps, the airmobile brigades, were mauled in battles. In addition, I should emphasise the fact that obviously actual Russian command didn't want the complete annihilation of encircled UkrOp forces, either in first cauldron battles, Ilovaysk or Debaltsevo. Because Russia without a doubt had the means to destroy them to the last man, but chose not to do so, allowing them to flee to Russia, surrender en masse only to be released soon (even the paramilitaries) or allowing an escape route. This is all just my opinion, and it may sound harsh and heartless when taking the common people caught in the conflict area into account: but the apparent inaction of Russia is the correct way and minimises the death and destruction. Meanwhile, the 404 is unravelling, the economy, society and social situation are worse with each day passing. The scum that is Yuschenko and his clique were reduced to single digit support, but their disastrous reign apparently didn't teach anyone a lesson. So the time has come to finally put an end to that ideology, discredit and extinguish them completely.

Moreover, it is easy to write supportive posts and assume a bellicose stance, while at the same time
other people are putting their lives at risk. Which raises an interesting question: did this state of fake ceasefire lead to wider use of snipers and harassing fire? Picking off sentries and unsuspecting opposition from afar?

PS: When the AFVs are all grouped and parked neatly in plain sight, they aren't preparing for an attack, because they know they are seen from space.

Notice shells, "Everything best for children".

One mustnt forget, that these photos that are conveniently leaked by ukrainian soldiers on social media may not be so accidental after all, operation mincemeat anyone?

Can anyone please translate? Militia reports, it's short

http://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/1267161.html

JohninMK wrote:

auslander wrote:Never underestimate your enemy. The orcs have had a year to recover from the Debaltsyevo and Aerodrome disasters and you can rest assured that they have had the best instructors and trainers in the world since those events and the trains heading east from certain entities in east Europe, and not so east Europe, have been running non stop with hardware from old storages.

This is going to be one hell of a fight and NAF has no other course of action besides total victory.

The orcs certainly do not seem to be short of ammo, otherwise they might not been using so much of it over the past few months.

Its been a good opportunity for the ex WP countries now in the 'West' to get rid of all the old Soviet stuff they don't want and which was taking up scarce storage space. No doubt a few juicy cash deals have gone down for this off the books gear.

I go with Khepesh's view that Kiev's biggest enemy is time, the longer they leave a solution to the problem the more difficult it gets. Almost the only item to improve is the amount of stuff in the UA and improved training all other aspects go downhill. Even the British Foreign Minister said that Kiev had to implement Minsk, which probably gives us an idea that there will not be much if any political pressure on the High Court regarding the Russian $3B case.

One aspect that might be coming into play is the rapidly increasing experience of current Russian forces in actual war. We can now see the MoD in Moscow, under cover of the Ceasefire Agreement and no blow-back, piling all kinds of groups of specialists into Syria as part of the 'enhanced training program' trialled in the RuAF and artillery. This experience will rapidly feed back into those forces that might be needed next, 12 battle hardened Su-25 pilots spreading the word for a start.

All this will have a psychological impact all the way to the frontline at Donetsk Airport, the knowledge that there is a powerful and proven war machine behind them that the politicians have shown that they are prepared to use, regardless of US/NATO. Conversely, the UA, all the way to their front lines, know pretty much that this time they will face actual, not mythical, Russian forces and that most of them will be dead if they can't surrender or run fast enough.

Meh Syria is a far more lucrative cashcow for stocks. Bar a couple of tanks and some shitty ammo cans (Bulgarian RPG heads that had the wrong type of propeller sticks haha) most of the equipment has been NATO stanag surplus (vests, PASGT style helmets, old and new coms, some designators, some shitty collimators etc).

And there's the crux of the argument, Russia is getting invaluable experience in low level warfare, not insurgency (that it had and had with Chechena Dagestan) but warfare. This is going to prove extremely important for a lot of guys, not only Donbass. If Ukraine wants to push back, the general idea would be gradual recovery, first a sector, then another one, then another, that's a slow process with the possibility of being beaten back to or beyond the starting point. Donetsk bait and switch should have learned them some lesson. You can't run an offense as it was a defense and you can't run a defense as it is an offense.

Ispan wrote:Can anyone please translate? Militia reports, it's short

http://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/1267161.html

I presume you mean the part on the image that translators cannot deal with.

"Misha, tell me, why are we in such a fucking fight at Yasinovataya. And everybody is silent [Context is that nobody is saying how it really is]. It's fucked up here, that's what's happening!!!!"

And to kill two birds with one stone. They will never see themselves as useless, it's rare for any organisation or individual to have the self awareness. It's an odd thing that people still see a parade of military equipment and think they are all powerful and cannot loose. And on the other, well, forums are funny places....

Rodinazombie wrote:One mustnt forget, that these photos that are conveniently leaked by ukrainian soldiers on social media may not be so accidental after all, operation mincemeat anyone?

Yes, and I just want to pick up on a point here about what is seen at the front or close to the front.

It simply is not possible for ukrops to hide any serious preperations for an offensive due to the eyes in the sky and the eyes on the ground. Everything that comes down from Izyum and passes thru Slavyansk and then onto other locations is seen and reported on, despite the 0400 knocking on the door by SBU. So all they can do is bluff and double bluff and counter double bluff, and we all get tied in knots trying to work out what happens or does not happen. In a way it is all rather naive and simplistic. If we presume that all of 1 Seperate Tank Brigade is between Dokuchaevsk and Volnovakha, then that is significant. But to move them under cover in some way, which they cannot really do, would be very suspicious. So if your movements are seen, then why not do it in the open. That at least an entire tank battalion is grouped in one place is simply trolling VSN and making it look impressive for home consumption, but while there is no full on war of movement, it is irrelevant what formations they take as they know they are not going to suffer mass MLRS bombardment at any moment. I believe ukrops are mostly configured now to launch offensive from the positions they currently hold and the only secret element is where and when, and to a greater extent it is when that is more crucial as their options for where are limited, and VSN reserves can quickly move to any problem area. Also due to the limited geographical area, one day a tank brigade can be at Dokuchaevsk, and the next at Avdeevka or Mariupol.

This is an article written by Andrei Kovalenko, chief editor of Information Agency Novorossiya with the title "Minsk-2 is doomed to failure" http://www.novorosinform.org/articles/id/4902

Very briefly, and I simplified this a lot, Kovalenko discusses which sides are not interested in Minsk.

Kiev, because as I wrote yesterday, compliance with Minsk means humiliation and defeat for them.

Russia, because it solves nothing, it does not really allow for the continuation of Donbass in Ukraine and does not allow for Donbass to join Russia. Even frozen conflicts will thaw out some day.

Novorossiya, essentially for the same reasons as Russia. Minsk does not give freedom from Kiev or the possibility of re-joining Russia.

America, because they want perpetual war and instability on the borders of Russia. The current situation is too quiet for them.


Kovalenko then discusses who is interested in Minsk.

5th column in Russia, the morons at "Dozhd" and "Echo Moskvy", the followers of Navalny as high profile examples, but under the surface others, many supported by western NGO.

EU, Who think Minsk is the answer simply to give "peace and quiet" as they do not want their trade interrupted.


Kovalenko then gives a scenario were Minsk could work.
He says that if in Kiev were not time servers and political charlatans, but real politicians of gravitas, then they would do the opposite of what Kiev does now. Within the framework of a ceasefire they could stop all the military activity, extend the hand of reconciliation and friendship to the people of Donbass, offer aid, even send "humanitarian convoys" to Crimea. A gesture that is not needed physically, but would be important phsycologicaly, the "hearts and minds". He says this approach would not have an effect in a month, but in a year or two. But the leaders in Kiev came to power by bloodshed, and it is all they know.

This is rather similar to what I wrote yesterday, that ultimately it is in the hands of Kiev to solve this peacefully, but they are trapped in a cage of their own making and can do nothing except fight for their own survival.

Khepesh wrote:

Ispan wrote:Can anyone please translate? Militia reports, it's short

http://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/1267161.html

I presume you mean the part on the image that translators cannot deal with.

Actually I was fishing for the entire report or a tleast the juicy bits , as the google translations many times are gibberish

Given how scarce are official briefings, eyewitness reports are the best we have to gauge how the fight is going. I know you said is routine stuff and always the same, but for the people in the front is a deadly routine and Western readers must know that there is a war on and what is like.

I wish I had the time to study Russian

There is nothing specific in the article really except what I translated, it all hangs on that message. Basically the fighting is very tough, they hang on, they are not happy about not being able to respond as they know they need to. In short, casualties are mounting and military expediency is being sacrificed on the alter of worshipping Mink. It is perhaps significant that news was released that "Somali" have moved to Makeevka. There is no reason to release details of VSN deployments other than to send a message, in this case probably to residents, as they have already expressed concerns and are very aware that a major battle could be fought in that general area between Donetsk and Gorlovka.