The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

New milestone achieved today by lostarmour.info

Their latest statistics shows:

Ukrop armour destroyed: 798
Ukrop armour captured :  402

Total  :   1200


Note: since they document losses only if there is a photo or video proof, the actual Ukrop armour losses are even greater.

I wasn't going to touch this subject, but an article is now circulating the networks by "annonymous". It is being copy pasted into pages with a broken link to LJ. Original is almost week old already but I think missed by many when it was first published. Yes, it's all in Russian, and too long to translate, but possibly a translated version may appear on fortrus, maybe. The article is not in fact by "Annonymous", it is by Dmitry Dzygovbrodskiy and here is the link to the original article http://antifashist.com/item/vy-vinovaty-vse.html

In "You are all guilty" Dadzi writes an epic rant and fires both barrels, reloads and fires again. He himself took to the streets against maidan and the fascists and in support of Berkut in Dnepropetrovsk. He totally condemns those who sat watching TV and did nothing and now complain while they wait for liberation by VSN or Russia. He quotes William Shirer on his analysis of how Hitler came to power, due to, in large part, public apathy. He ends by saying that while people in Ukraine do not wake up then there is nothing for Russia to save.

IMO he is right and wrong. He is right about apathy, but that is a normal human condition and this will not change, for while many will sit in front of TV or behind computer and scream and rage, only a tiny minority will ever walk out the door and take to the streets. He is a political activist and so part of a minority, and his frustration at the "lumpen" majority is understandable. But human nature will not change and though it sounds insulting, the majority are, in these affairs, simply lumpen, sheeple. So in that analysis he is right, but he is wrong saying that there is nobody in Ukraine to save. I can see his point of course, but history does not unfold due to a majority sitting at home, it is made by those who act, and so the fact of the apathy of the many should not have priority over what must be done. The argument "If they will not save themselves, why should we" is an argument that has the effect of supporting Kiev, or any criminals in any country who come to power by a coup, but it is not "any country" we talk about, it is historic Russian lands, and as Dadzi writes, this goes beyond us living today, it is about our ancestors who fought the nazis, it is the future of our children, so that while there is this apathy today, this desire to watch mentally and morally corrosive crap on TV, we cannot abrogate our responsibilty to those who died for us in the past and to those who will follow us in the future. Doing nothing lets the enemy win.

Edit: I forgot to add this from his article, and he points finger at the criminals and the apathetic in Ukraine. "You have not only betrayed us, you have betrayed your fathers and grandfathers, you have betrayed your children"

Khepesh wrote:I wasn't going to touch this subject, but an article is now circulating the networks by "annonymous". It is being copy pasted into pages with a broken link to LJ. Original is almost week old already but I think missed by many when it was first published. Yes, it's all in Russian, and too long to translate, but possibly a translated version may appear on fortrus, maybe. The article is not in fact by "Annonymous", it is by Dmitry Dzygovbrodskiy and here is the link to the original article http://antifashist.com/item/vy-vinovaty-vse.html

In "You are all guilty" Dadzi writes an epic rant and fires both barrels, reloads and fires again. He himself took to the streets against maidan and the fascists and in support of Berkut in Dnepropetrovsk. He totally condemns those who sat watching TV and did nothing and now complain while they wait for liberation by VSN or Russia. He quotes William Shirer on his analysis of how Hitler came to power, due to, in large part, public apathy. He ends by saying that while people in Ukraine do not wake up then there is nothing for Russia to save.

IMO he is right and wrong. He is right about apathy, but that is a normal human condition and this will not change, for while many will sit in front of TV or behind computer and scream and rage, only a tiny minority will ever walk out the door and take to the streets. He is a political activist and so part of a minority, and his frustration at the "lumpen" majority is understandable. But human nature will not change and though it sounds insulting, the majority are, in these affairs, simply lumpen, sheeple. So in that analysis he is right, but he is wrong saying that there is nobody in Ukraine to save. I can see his point of course, but history does not unfold due to a majority sitting at home, it is made by those who act, and so the fact of the apathy of the many should not have priority over what must be done. The argument "If they will not save themselves, why should we" is an argument that has the effect of supporting Kiev, or any criminals in any country who come to power by a coup, but it is not "any country" we talk about, it is historic Russian lands, and as Dadzi writes, this goes beyond us living today, it is about our ancestors who fought the nazis, it is the future of our children, so that while there is this apathy today, this desire to watch mentally and morally corrosive crap on TV, we cannot abrogate our responsibilty to those who died for us in the past and to those who will follow us in the future. Doing nothing lets the enemy win.

Khepesh,

I assume this review is your own writing. While my perspective is somewhat different from that of yours, your writing style is impressive. Are you a professional writer?

^ The review is mine. I have been writing about Crimea and Ukraine for some years, long before maidan. I'm not author but military and have helped write technical manuals in the past.

Very well written, Khepesh.

Simply a raccoon...

I'm certain that I have written several times that the danger is that ukrops can launch an attack from a standing start with no or only minimal extra preparation. They also have the advantage that they know they are not going to be attacked, and so they can dictate when and where military action takes place. There is an analogy with the assault on Golan Hights in October 1973. In this analogy Donbass is Israel and Ukraine is Syria. I quote directly from the book "Arabs at War" by Kenneth Pollack, and where he describes the Syrian preparations for the assault.

"Their units also began practising the sudden conduct of offensive operations from a standing start so they could launch their attack with minimal preparations that could otherwise tip off the Israelis. Like the Egyptians, the Syrians also began conducting frequent maneuvers and large-scale exercises to desensitize the Iraelis to their preparations for war. In addition, they conducted a careful reconnaissance and intelligence gathering campaign to determine Israel's order of battle, the layout of it's Golan fortifications, the road network, and Israeli command and control on the plateau."

A further analogy is that while, to an extent, behind Syria was Soviet Union, so behind Ukraine is USA. But just as Syria, Ukraine is an unruly client and the complaint back in the days from Moscow that the Syrians take anything except advice, can be directly transfered to the relationship between Kiev and Washington. The begging hand held out, but they want to control how the toys are used.

History never exactly repeats itself, intelligence gathering and other surveillance has greatly improved since 1973, but basics remain, and if a plan worked before, and in it's initial stages the Syrian offensive was successful, then it can be tried again, with modifications. Pollack was a military analyst at CIA and I am sure that the expertise of men like him, if not himself, will be put to use. But anybody can read his book, anybody can work out what Kiev may be doing without even reading his book, so we know, unlike in 1973, that this type of surprise is possible. So we expect it, but plan for the unexpected. Bluff, double bluff, counter double double bluff, known unknowns, unknown unknowns......

Khepesh wrote:Simply a raccoon...

I'm certain that I have written several times that the danger is that ukrops can launch an attack from a standing start with no or only minimal extra preparation. They also have the advantage that they know they are not going to be attacked, and so they can dictate when and where military action takes place. There is an analogy with the assault on Golan Hights in October 1973. In this analogy Donbass is Israel and Ukraine is Syria. I quote directly from the book "Arabs at War" by Kenneth Pollack, and where he describes the Syrian preparations for the assault.

"Their units also began practising the sudden conduct of offensive operations from a standing start so they could launch their attack with minimal preparations that could otherwise tip off the Israelis. Like the Egyptians, the Syrians also began conducting frequent maneuvers and large-scale exercises to desensitize the Iraelis to their preparations for war. In addition, they conducted a careful reconnaissance and intelligence gathering campaign to determine Israel's order of battle, the layout of it's Golan fortifications, the road network, and Israeli command and control on the plateau."

A further analogy is that while, to an extent, behind Syria was Soviet Union, so behind Ukraine is USA. But just as Syria, Ukraine is an unruly client and the complaint back in the days from Moscow that the Syrians take anything except advice, can be directly transfered to the relationship between Kiev and Washington. The begging hand held out, but they want to control how the toys are used.

History never exactly repeats itself, intelligence gathering and other surveillance has greatly improved since 1973, but basics remain, and if a plan worked before, and in it's initial stages the Syrian offensive was successful, then it can be tried again, with modifications. Pollack was a military analyst at CIA and I am sure that the expertise of men like him, if not himself, will be put to use. But anybody can read his book, anybody can work out what Kiev may be doing without even reading his book, so we know, unlike in 1973, that this type of surprise is possible. So we expect it, but plan for the unexpected. Bluff, double bluff, counter double double bluff, known unknowns, unknown unknowns......

You have impressed me no end. I see that as the torch is passed it has fallen in to capable hands.

Auslander

auslander wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Simply a raccoon...

I'm certain that I have written several times that the danger is that ukrops can launch an attack from a standing start with no or only minimal extra preparation. They also have the advantage that they know they are not going to be attacked, and so they can dictate when and where military action takes place. There is an analogy with the assault on Golan Hights in October 1973. In this analogy Donbass is Israel and Ukraine is Syria. I quote directly from the book "Arabs at War" by Kenneth Pollack, and where he describes the Syrian preparations for the assault.

"Their units also began practising the sudden conduct of offensive operations from a standing start so they could launch their attack with minimal preparations that could otherwise tip off the Israelis. Like the Egyptians, the Syrians also began conducting frequent maneuvers and large-scale exercises to desensitize the Iraelis to their preparations for war. In addition, they conducted a careful reconnaissance and intelligence gathering campaign to determine Israel's order of battle, the layout of it's Golan fortifications, the road network, and Israeli command and control on the plateau."

A further analogy is that while, to an extent, behind Syria was Soviet Union, so behind Ukraine is USA. But just as Syria, Ukraine is an unruly client and the complaint back in the days from Moscow that the Syrians take anything except advice, can be directly transfered to the relationship between Kiev and Washington. The begging hand held out, but they want to control how the toys are used.

History never exactly repeats itself, intelligence gathering and other surveillance has greatly improved since 1973, but basics remain, and if a plan worked before, and in it's initial stages the Syrian offensive was successful, then it can be tried again, with modifications. Pollack was a military analyst at CIA and I am sure that the expertise of men like him, if not himself, will be put to use. But anybody can read his book, anybody can work out what Kiev may be doing without even reading his book, so we know, unlike in 1973, that this type of surprise is possible. So we expect it, but plan for the unexpected. Bluff, double bluff, counter double double bluff, known unknowns, unknown unknowns......

You have impressed me no end. I see that as the torch is passed it has fallen in to capable hands.

Auslander

I sincerely hope that that was not you signing off. Your input, along with Khepesh's, has been much appreciated both here and especially in the other place. I just hope that you both realise that without you both and the knowledge and information you brought, the threads would have been much much poorer places.

sepheronx wrote:When do you think the PUkes will start their incursion Khepesh?

I retired from forecasting as this war is so unusual. But it could be any hour of any day from now until late Autumn. June/July is a possibility if the number of reported attacks increases from 200+ per day as it is now, to 500+. IMO, that Poroshenko left Washington essentially empty handed, and he is rebuffed by EU and has difficulties with IMF increases the possibility of either a coup against him or him launching the offensive. But really, I don't know.

Khepesh wrote:^ The review is mine. I have been writing about Crimea and Ukraine for some years, long before maidan. I'm not author but military and have helped write technical manuals in the past.

Khepesh,

Thanks for your impressive contributions. Would also like to thank Auslander, Ispan, John, ... for their very well-written posts.

Khepesh helped me with the translation of the following report, so I repost it to save you the ache of having to google translate my blog entry.

In a nutshell,

- Offensive will not take place until it gets warm and mud dries, two weeks left

- My personal opinion is that ukranian army is very poor and deficient and cannot easily transition from defense to attack, given the inertia and "taking roots" factor of static positional warfare. At any rate, even if the plans and troops have been in place for a long time, the logistic buildup of supplies, fuel and artillery ammunition would take several days and be very noticeable. In my opinion, the gradual buildup of ukranian forces, by small packets week after week it is not due to subtlety or a desire to tiptoe across the threshold of Minsk agreements instead of breaking them in one bold step. Rather reflects the limited ability of the ukranian command in planning and logistics. Furthermore, the prolonged concentration of troops is counterproductive, as troops in the trenches get worn out, even if there is little fighting, and have to be rotated to the rear for rest and refit. It seems to be the case here, where brigades wich should logically be the spearhead of the offensive are relieved from the line after having sustained heavy casualties during the last month.

- the following report suggests that Ukrops will not try to breach the front since it is hopeless but try to slaughter the NAF by means of attrition in positional warfare. It is reminiscent of what Falkenhayn planned to do at Verdun, 100 years ago. Since breaking the static front was so difficult, let's provoke the enemy into an attrition fight where they will be bled white. This idea of provoking the novorussians to attack and fight a defensive one is a sensible one and perhaps the best option for the ukranians. But it is risky as the attrition cuts both ways.


On the report by Marina Kharkova -

Attacks on army positions of the DNR and settlements of the Republic with the use of weapons, some of which were kept concealed from February 2015, more and more acquire the character of speculative fire. Such operations are usually conducted by forward echelons of an assult force.

ATO spent all of March reinforcing the combat zone with weapons and military equipment. The Ukrainian armed forces command has built their strength in three lines. However, as practice shows, the Ukrainian military is compromised by keeping it's forces in one place for long periods of time.

Gorlovka and Makeevka have been subjected to heavy bombardment by ukrops, and the Nazis used all available types of AA guns, mortars and artillery from 23mm to 152mm heavy howitzers.

1. On the front line at Staromikhailovka there is a difficult situation with attacks by mortars and snipers day and night.

A VSN unit commander was killed, and tho the bullet was not recovered, it is believed to have been NATO type ammunition fired from Polish snipers out of Marinka

In general, the problem of snipers all along the front has increased tremendously.

2. The situation in the southern front at Kominternovo - Sahanka has deteriorated and the amount of shelling by all types of weapons except MLRS has increased.

3. The industrial area of Avdeevka and the Yasinvataya blockpost is under grueling fire, and figting continues to press the enemy back and supress their firing positions. Night fighting equipment was responsible for the shelling of east Makeevka.

Today I met with army sappers and de-mining sappers. These heroic guys explained the tricks they used to remove mines, like hooking them with a device like a fishing rod and pulling them, and that they bear losses. In general, very interesting.

I am doing less because of physical fatigue. For instance yesterday I drove 160 km back and forth between Staromikhailovka and hospitals in Donetsk. There is also psychological fatigue. Everything is so senseless and without mercy that I cannot analize it or how rebel forces carry on.



On the increased attacks, the translation is reasonable, so just a summary.

The attacks are to hit the morale of soldiers and civilians.

The attacks at Avdeevka/Yasinovataya are a protracted recconaisance, but as they have been going on since early March then likely will not develop into anything more serious.

By June ATO will increase attacks to 200 per day to try to force VSN to the offensive and fall on well prepared ATO defensive positions.

If VSN do go on the offensive, Kiev will hope  they will loose so many men and equipment that they can successfully counter-attack.

If VSN do not go on the offensive in the summer, then Kiev will increase the attacks to 500-1000 a day and so force VSN onto the offensive.

This situation cannot continue as each side may loose 100 men (killed)  a day, the only outcome being either a diplomatic solution to properly freeze the conflict, or VSN will attack.

PS Morpheus and all the other people that sent messages of appreciation, thank you very much!

Thanks for the analysis Ispan.

Given that DNR/LPR and the VSN are probably under the strategic control of Moscow and the experience of the last couple of years, in both Ukraine and Syria, is that they will not take offensive action until all other options are exhausted and they have to. I would have thought that Kiev succeeding in luring the VSN into an attack is pretty unlikely as Moscow will not, under almost any circumstances, want to be seen as an aggressor.

Perhaps more likely would be authorisation to dramatically increase counter battery fire. Probably after telling US/NATO that it would happen (so they can get their nationals out) and showing that it was a self defence move not a prelude to attack by keeping VSN tanks well back. As no-one would be surprised, since 10,000 Russians are already there, it would be done using the now Syrian war proven drone/radar combination with current artillery. The objectives being to consistently wipe out the guns that fired to engender the fear and panic in the UA artillery units such that they start to believe that if they fire they will be next to be dead. Helped by a rumour that the advisors that were with the SyAA are now with the VSN.

This could have a few different results. The UA could stop shelling and the 'ceasefire' starts again putting the time pressures on Kiev already discussed back into play. Or it lures the UA into striking which would allow the VSN, now part protected by an up and running counter battery operation, to option to counter attack. Again with Moscow telling US/NATO not to worry, the advance will only be to the oblast borders for example.

As you say, something has to happen, the current situation is just not sustainable. Much better to take the initiative, especially, as in this case, a clearly defensive one.

Meanwhile, on another planet

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said that the United States will provide the Ukrainian government with new technology as a part of additional $335 million in security assistance.

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — The United States will provide the Ukrainian government with new technology as a part of additional $335 million in security assistance, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said in an interview. "Just during my visit here [in Washington, DC], we received a final approval of 335 million package," Poroshenko stated in an interview with Fox News on Monday evening. "A significant part of this package will be new technology."

The Ukrainian president noted that the US support for Ukraine "is getting better," and now the two countries have effective cooperation and joint training programs.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160405/1037481557/usa-ukraine-aid-package.html#ixzz44u205mpz

JohninMK wrote:

auslander wrote:

You have impressed me no end. I see that as the torch is passed it has fallen in to capable hands.

Auslander

I sincerely hope that that was not you signing off. Your input, along with Khepesh's, has been much appreciated both here and especially in the other place. I just hope that you both realise that without you both and the knowledge and information you brought, the threads would have been much much poorer places.  

No, I'm not going to pasture and retirement. I am getting old, seventy shortly, and I just don't have the energy I had even a year ago. My writing is taking up some time and in fact a short story, which is actually a chapter of the next book that will be published early this summer, will go live I hope this week. It is fiction but some parts may raise an eyebrow, in particular one short paragraph about two thirds through. Any good fiction has a kernel of truth here and there.

I also must go to Moscow, my wife and I leave in a week and will be gone for two. By the time we return Victory Day Parade planning will be hectic. Time is turning in to a precious commodity, there's never enough of it.

More equipment coming out of Kherson down towards Crimea http://antifashist.com/item/hersonshhina-prodolzhaet-navodnyatsya-voennoj-tehnikoj-v-region-pribyl-ocherednoj-krupnyj-eshelon-vsu.html

Perhaps as this time it is Msta-B and Bulats it is a little more important than a train load of BMP or Gvozdika

Two days ago, in the early afternoon, I was outside enjoying a cup of coffee with my blue girl Sophia. She's the only one who is not afraid of aircraft flying low over the house. We counted 44 rotary wing aircraft, two types, in groups of 4, going north about two klicks inland from the Sea. All were the latest models that make life interesting for the ground troops. I do not know if they landed at Belbek or went further north. Belbek is just far enough away that all we can hear is the fighters taking off and that's if the wind is in the correct direction.

auslander wrote:Two days ago, in the early afternoon, I was outside enjoying a cup of coffee with my blue girl Sophia. She's the only one who is not afraid of aircraft flying low over the house. We counted 44 rotary wing aircraft, two types, in groups of 4, going north about two klicks inland from the Sea. All were the latest models that make life interesting for the ground troops. I do not know if they landed at Belbek or went further north. Belbek is just far enough away that all we can hear is the fighters taking off and that's if the wind is in the correct direction.

Getting ready in case of their deployment to Syria perhaps or just part of Russia's increased readiness for anything?

Re Khepesh's post about the gear going towards Crimea. There must be a good reason for this, but what? Are they actually going to go full retard and try to attack Crimea, or is their ultimate destination somewhere along the DNR southern front? Has anyone heard where all the gear that has gone before is now?

Auslander, I got to 70 five weeks ago so understand totally your relationship with time. My take is that we do not experience time in our lives in a linear manner, it is more exponential. This applies to all kinds of situations. For example, when you are at an enjoyable event, say a party, at the start of it time appears to go quite slowly whilst towards the end it gallops past. Life is the same, you and I have passed the 'leisurely' stage and are now definitely in the 'what April already' era. It doesn't help either that, as you say, our physical and mental faculties are not quite what they used to be. Still, by now we should have acquired enough experience and wisdom to see us through what remains of our lives at a higher quality level than when were were making all those mistakes.

I do not know their final destination nor do I know what unit they comprise. As for the equipment and troops somewhere in Kherson Oblast, only a suicidal fool would attack Krim or toss so much as a pebble at the border. There will be no incidents like 404 is pulling in Novorossiya, the response to one shot will be overwhelming and that is being kind. It is possible that these units are simply on their way to the lines in Novorossiya.

I will be 70 in a few months. I, like you, fully understand that as we age time seems to accelerate exponentially. I'm sitting here trying to understand where March went and why I did not accomplish all I wanted to do in that month.

I am, due to aging however gracefully or not so gracefully, much more patient and understanding than I was a decade ago. My wife actually had the nerve to tell someone at Battery that I was 'kind and thoughtful'. I fully intend to enjoy the next two decades of life, that's if genetics hold true for my lineage.

auslander wrote:I will be 70 in a few months. I, like you, fully understand that as we age time seems to accelerate exponentially. I'm sitting here trying to understand where March went and why I did not accomplish all I wanted to do in that month.

I am, due to aging however gracefully or not so gracefully, much more patient and understanding than I was a decade ago. My wife actually had the nerve to tell someone at Battery that I was 'kind and thoughtful'. I fully intend to enjoy the next two decades of life, that's if genetics hold true for my lineage.

Ageing gracefully is what you are doing now. After 70 you are allowed, possibly for the first time since you were 5 or 6, to actually say what you think because you realise that it really doesn't matter.

Like you I have become kind and thoughtful, so they say. To my mind its the wisdom of age. Mind you, few tap into that wisdom.

I agree, few listen but some do. What is a little annoying is women now hold the door for me or fuss at their children to 'hold the door for Grandpa'. Shows how old I look!

70 and old ? Sheesh , think about all those millenial japanese sprinters LOL

My Grandfather is 82, and he is atm building new flat on his old house, by his own hands as he is builder and stone carver by professon so...