Khepesh wrote:Simply a raccoon...
I'm certain that I have written several times that the danger is that ukrops can launch an attack from a standing start with no or only minimal extra preparation. They also have the advantage that they know they are not going to be attacked, and so they can dictate when and where military action takes place. There is an analogy with the assault on Golan Hights in October 1973. In this analogy Donbass is Israel and Ukraine is Syria. I quote directly from the book "Arabs at War" by Kenneth Pollack, and where he describes the Syrian preparations for the assault.
"Their units also began practising the sudden conduct of offensive operations from a standing start so they could launch their attack with minimal preparations that could otherwise tip off the Israelis. Like the Egyptians, the Syrians also began conducting frequent maneuvers and large-scale exercises to desensitize the Iraelis to their preparations for war. In addition, they conducted a careful reconnaissance and intelligence gathering campaign to determine Israel's order of battle, the layout of it's Golan fortifications, the road network, and Israeli command and control on the plateau."
A further analogy is that while, to an extent, behind Syria was Soviet Union, so behind Ukraine is USA. But just as Syria, Ukraine is an unruly client and the complaint back in the days from Moscow that the Syrians take anything except advice, can be directly transfered to the relationship between Kiev and Washington. The begging hand held out, but they want to control how the toys are used.
History never exactly repeats itself, intelligence gathering and other surveillance has greatly improved since 1973, but basics remain, and if a plan worked before, and in it's initial stages the Syrian offensive was successful, then it can be tried again, with modifications. Pollack was a military analyst at CIA and I am sure that the expertise of men like him, if not himself, will be put to use. But anybody can read his book, anybody can work out what Kiev may be doing without even reading his book, so we know, unlike in 1973, that this type of surprise is possible. So we expect it, but plan for the unexpected. Bluff, double bluff, counter double double bluff, known unknowns, unknown unknowns......