The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

TheArmenian wrote:New milestone achieved today by lostarmour.info

Their latest statistics shows:

Ukrop armour destroyed: 798
Ukrop armour captured :  402

Total  :   1200


Note: since they document losses only if there is a photo or video proof, the actual Ukrop armour losses are even greater.

do people actualy believe in such nonsense figures or rather claims .... ? o.Ô

Well, it might be easy to believe when they are pictured and in many cases geolocated. However, some recent activity surprised me, to say the least: destroyed hulls gathered as part of battlefield salvage and then pictured at some depot were attributed exclusively to Novorussian forces.

SturmGuard wrote:Well, it might be easy to believe when they are pictured and in many cases geolocated. However, some recent activity surprised me, to say the least: destroyed hulls gathered as part of battlefield salvage and then pictured at some depot were attributed exclusively to Novorussian forces.

Well here's the strange thing. Those sites ( like lostarmour.info ) provide photos of actualy destroyed and captured material ( not just armour ) no more no less. It's nowhere near those numbers, not even remotely. Maybe losses in the few hundreds, but mixed, very mixed. Significantly more APCs than tanks, tanks make the minority.

TheGeorgian wrote:
do people actualy believe in such nonsense figures or rather claims .... ? o.Ô

I detect a faint smell of trolling here.

What is so unbelievable about it? The ukranian forces have racked up one devastating defeat after another, first they battered themselves in futile frontal assaults were they were slaughtered, and afterwards they were surrounded in several pockets and bombarded to death. Thousands of dead and hundreds of vehicles destroyed and captured.

All these vehicles are photographed and confirmed. The novorussians have hundreds of tanks, artillery pieces and armored vehicles they captured from the Ukranians. Stands to reason there is an even larger amount of material destroyed beyond repair.

Novorussian claims are 24,000 ukranians killed. Known confirmed losses are 11,000. Kiev only admits officially 2,500 soldiers from the army, but they have 8,500 graves for unknown soldiers. And giving the conservative rate of 3 wounded per killed, that is forty thousand casualties at minimum.

You can go check my blog. I have studied the subject extensively and kept track from the beginning of the war and everything confirms the vast losses in equipment and men. They had to draft 30-40 years old and retrieve armoured vehicles from junkyards to make up losses.

As Strelkov said, they only have materiel and reserves for one last major offensive. Else, the continual attrition will reduce them to an army of foot infantry and artillery in a year.

no attempt of trolling at all. Those numbers are simply unrealistic af. I know how hard the UA got bashed the last 2 years, but those figures on armour losses are fairy tales and also not in accordance to the sources you provide ( photo materials etc )

TheGeorgian wrote:Well here's the strange thing. Those sites ( like lostarmour.info ) provide photos of actualy destroyed and captured material ( not just armour ) no more no less. It's nowhere near those numbers, not even remotely. Maybe losses in the few hundreds, but mixed, very mixed. Significantly more APCs than tanks, tanks make the minority.

I see 1008 listed as destroyed, and 431 listed as captured, at the moment, for both sides, for AFVs of all types. Tube artillery and MLRS are significantly smaller. Pictures for every single claim, people of all affiliations going over them for the past 2 years.

I am not 100% sure, but I do believe that they removed tanks+AFVs that (might) have come from Russia proper, that were once listed in the "captured" department. Moreover, I am not sure how do they treat the hardware that is captured and then subsequently destroyed in combat, does it get a double entry?

Would be interesting to know, when did the lostarmour.info project start and the domain bought: someone had the right idea of future events.

franco wrote:RT reporting Yats to resign on Tuesday as PM;

https://www.rt.com/news/339119-ukraine-pm-yatsenyuk-resigns/

To be honest I was expecting him to stay until after the next round of fighting to be the sacrificial goat.

At some point the UkrOp will (or did they already do that?) start to wonder whether the entire government and revolution were Russian agents from the start: implanted to undermine the glorious Ukrainian nation and revolution, their efforts to defeat Moscals and ascend to European future :DDDD

No, seriously, the level of economic and social devastation this revolution brought can only be equated to a high treason. Can anyone name just three positive reforms and decisions they made during 2 years of rule?

SturmGuard wrote:

TheGeorgian wrote:Well here's the strange thing. Those sites ( like lostarmour.info ) provide photos of actualy destroyed and captured material ( not just armour ) no more no less. It's nowhere near those numbers, not even remotely. Maybe losses in the few hundreds, but mixed, very mixed. Significantly more APCs than tanks, tanks make the minority.

I see 1008 listed as destroyed, and 431 listed as captured, at the moment, for both sides, for AFVs of all types. Tube artillery and MLRS are significantly smaller.

I am not 100% sure, but I do believe that they removed tanks that (might) have come from Russia proper, that were once listed in the captured department. Moreover, I am not sure how do they treat the hardware that is captured and then subsequently destroyed in combat, does it get a double entry?

Yes, listed as in claimed destroyed and captured hardware in general, obv majority UA material which is undeniable. A number of photos, confirmed losses. Those I can take as fact. I also take in account the approximate UA material losses on Crimea and what other video or photo material I personaly saw, lot of them also referenced on the site, some are not, a number got also deleted.

However, such bloated numbers and some drawn charts and statistics I don't understand how you can simply accept them without even questioning if they are remotely realistic.

TheGeorgian wrote:

TheArmenian wrote:New milestone achieved today by lostarmour.info

Their latest statistics shows:

Ukrop armour destroyed: 798
Ukrop armour captured :  402

Total  :   1200


Note: since they document losses only if there is a photo or video proof, the actual Ukrop armour losses are even greater.

do people actualy believe in such nonsense figures or rather claims .... ? o.Ô

Well, see, term "armored vehicle" is very wide term, includes tanks, APCs, IFVs, various support and auxilary vehicles on those platforms and very often self-propelled guns and even howtizers, depends who is making the list.

So lets see what Ukraine had in its inventory service/reserve/storage post USSR:

Some 400-450 T80 tanks remained in their inventory
1000ish T72 variants
Near 3000 T64 tanks remained in Ukraine post 1991. some 2500 are still around

Near 2000 BMP-2s, same number goes for BMP-1
BMD-1/2 i suppose around 150-200

About 1000 BTR-70s are in storages
About 500 BTR-80s (we have confirmed 100+ lost due to war in Donbass, which probably puts inventory alot lower now)
BTR-60 150ish
BRDM-2 600-700 pieces
BRDM-1 500ish in storages
MT-LB - noone fkn knows, estimates go up to 5000 in total with some 2000ish in service

And then there are probably near 2000 various support vehicles based on these platforms listed above.

So losing some 1000 armored vehicles is not very hard to lose, especially if used in a wrong way.

TheGeorgian wrote:Yes, listed as in claimed destroyed and captured hardware in general, obv majority UA material which is undeniable. A number of photos, confirmed losses. Those I can take as fact. I also take in account the approximate UA material losses on Crimea and what other video or photo material I personaly saw, lot of them also referenced on the site, some are not, a number got also deleted.

However, such bloated numbers and some drawn charts and statistics I don't understand how you can simply accept them without even questioning if they are remotely realistic.

To be honest, I think each dubious claim would quickly get called out, because people discuss and analyse the claims below. I am not sure why do you think such losses are bloated: from the start it was obvious that both sides valued lives far more than equipment; formations were overly armour-heavy and lacked (trained and determined) infantry component resulting in bad performance and high losses due to a lack of combined arms approach; surrender on condition of equipment abandoning etc. We mustn't forget the fact that both sides very much lack the necessary capability for battlefield salvage and repairs, therefore damaged and immobilised vehicles were likely blown up in order to prevent them from falling into enemy hands. I doubt each or even a significant fraction of those pictured destroyed AFVs equals to a lost crew.

Militarov wrote:

TheGeorgian wrote:

TheArmenian wrote:New milestone achieved today by lostarmour.info

Their latest statistics shows:

Ukrop armour destroyed: 798
Ukrop armour captured :  402

Total  :   1200


Note: since they document losses only if there is a photo or video proof, the actual Ukrop armour losses are even greater.

do people actualy believe in such nonsense figures or rather claims .... ? o.Ô

Well, see, term "armored vehicle" is very wide term, includes tanks, APCs, IFVs, various support and auxilary vehicles on those platforms and very often self-propelled guns and even howtizers, depends who is making the list.

So lets see what Ukraine had in its inventory service/reserve/storage post USSR:

Some 400-450 T80 tanks remained in their inventory
1000ish T72 variants
Near 3000 T64 tanks remained in Ukraine post 1991. some 2500 are still around

Near 2000 BMP-2s, same number goes for BMP-1
BMD-1/2 i suppose around 150-200

About 1000 BTR-70s are in storages
About 500 BTR-80s (we have confirmed 100+ lost due to war in Donbass, which probably puts inventory alot lower now)
BTR-60 150ish
BRDM-2 600-700 pieces
BRDM-1 500ish in storages
MT-LB - noone fkn knows, estimates go up to 5000 in total with some 2000ish in service

And then there are probably near 2000 various support vehicles based on these platforms listed above.

So losing some 1000 armored vehicles is not very hard to lose, especially if used in a wrong way.

I'm just missing hard proof / evidence to buy that. From what I saw, I can easily estimate a total loss of ~ 400 - 700 MBTs/IFVs/APCs/Trucks-Cars etc destroyed or captured in total for the UA alone ( and UA losses are the clear majority ), but 1000 destroyed armour alone .... ? that's just too much.

TheGeorgian wrote:
I'm just missing hard proof / evidence to buy that. From what I saw, I can easily estimate a total loss of ~ 400 - 700 MBTs/IFVs/APCs/Trucks-Cars etc destroyed or captured in total for the UA alone ( and UA losses are the clear majority ), but 1000 destroyed armour alone .... ? that's just too much.

*sigh*

Seems young people have no idea of how destructive is conventional war and how voracious is of men and machines. Go look up the armor losses in the Yom Kippur war of 1973. Both sides had thousands of tanks and armored vehicles, but without factories to replace them, the war would have lasted only few weeks with that attrition.

BTR are just armored trucks. They are easily destroyed. BMP are a bit tougher but still blow up. RPGs rule the battlefied. T-64 tanks without infantry support also were destroyed by the dozens through flank hits.

Ispan wrote:

TheGeorgian wrote:
I'm just missing hard proof / evidence to buy that. From what I saw, I can easily estimate a total loss of ~ 400 - 700 MBTs/IFVs/APCs/Trucks-Cars etc destroyed or captured in total for the UA alone ( and UA losses are the clear majority ), but 1000 destroyed armour alone .... ? that's just too much.

*sigh*

Seems young people have no idea of how destructive is conventional war and how voracious is of men and machines. Go look up the armor losses in the Yom Kippur war of 1973. Both sides had thousands of tanks and armored vehicles, but without factories to replace them, the war would have lasted only few weeks with that attrition.

BTR are just armored trucks. They are easily destroyed. BMP are a bit tougher but still blow up. RPGs rule the battlefied. T-64 tanks without infantry support also were destroyed by the dozens through flank hits.

I did get a glimps of it.
Fair points and I don't want to argue about it, just expressing my doubts which I still hold for the most part but I'm also not completly ruling out the case.

Militarov wrote:

TheGeorgian wrote:

TheArmenian wrote:New milestone achieved today by lostarmour.info

Their latest statistics shows:

Ukrop armour destroyed: 798
Ukrop armour captured :  402

Total  :   1200


Note: since they document losses only if there is a photo or video proof, the actual Ukrop armour losses are even greater.

do people actualy believe in such nonsense figures or rather claims .... ? o.Ô

Well, see, term "armored vehicle" is very wide term, includes tanks, APCs, IFVs, various support and auxilary vehicles on those platforms and very often self-propelled guns and even howtizers, depends who is making the list.

So lets see what Ukraine had in its inventory service/reserve/storage post USSR:

Some 400-450 T80 tanks remained in their inventory
1000ish T72 variants
Near 3000 T64 tanks remained in Ukraine post 1991. some 2500 are still around

Near 2000 BMP-2s, same number goes for BMP-1
BMD-1/2 i suppose around 150-200

About 1000 BTR-70s are in storages
About 500 BTR-80s (we have confirmed 100+ lost due to war in Donbass, which probably puts inventory alot lower now)
BTR-60 150ish
BRDM-2 600-700 pieces
BRDM-1 500ish in storages
MT-LB - noone fkn knows, estimates go up to 5000 in total with some 2000ish in service

And then there are probably near 2000 various support vehicles based on these platforms listed above.

So losing some 1000 armored vehicles is not very hard to lose, especially if used in a wrong way.

Ukraine got a lot from ex-Soviet stocks. But after 1991 they sell a lot of tanks and armor around the World. They sell 320 T-80UD tanks to Pakistan, they sell hundreds of T-72 tanks in Africa and elsewhere. A lot of remaining tanks and armored vehicles were cannibalized for spare parts for export and now for war in 404. As I know in all those offensives 404 lost around 2000 tanks and armored vehicles, so it is quite serious possibility, that 404 put on the front all what is available and in working conditions without much of reserves left.

you saw the nick of the HaHol armor trucks etc in Krim/Crimea most even couldn't start ... when they mean in storage/reserved they are left out in the open to all the elements .. after Debeltseve the HaHols claimed they lost around 40% of their armor in service

The evidence for the available tanks in  Ukraine's inventory is currently the deployed or shown ones. Those stand at around 800 tanks. While thy've got much more in "storage"  The currently seen rolling are sub 1000. And I'm talking thèse last decade.

KoTeMoRe wrote:The evidence for the available tanks in  Ukraine's inventory is currently the deployed or shown ones. Those stand at around 800 tanks. While thy've got much more in "storage"  The currently seen rolling are sub 1000. And I'm talking thèse last decade.

About 1000 is currently in service almost only T64 variants, they are struggling with overhauls of T80s and additional T64Bs. However some reports say they are now even trying to bring some T72s into service.

Ivan Katchanovski
9 hrs ·
Facebook

Stephen Walt, a leading American scholar of international relations at Harvard, says that the US support for the overthrow of the Ukrainian government was a major foreign policy mistake on par with US regime change policies in Libya and Syria because it failed to predict the Russian response in Ukraine and resulted in tragic consequences for the Ukrainian people. But various indicators suggest that this policy involved a regime change in Ukraine and at least de facto support for the violent government overthrow by the oligarchic and far right alliance, which resorted to the massacre of the Maidan protesters and the police. The US policy failed to anticipate not only the Russian military interventions in Crimea and Donbas but also the civil war and break-up of Ukraine, even though possibilities of such developments were raised by me and a couple of other academic experts.

"I’m no fan of Vladimir Putin, but U.S. officials erred by openly siding with the demonstrators seeking to oust former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and by failing to anticipate how Russia was likely to respond. The result was a tragedy for the Ukrainian people, an embarrassment for the United States, and a more precarious situation in Europe, which hardly needed another problem on its agenda."

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/04/07/obama-was-not-a-realist-president-jeffrey-goldberg-atlantic-obama-doctrine/

(IMHO, the first part of the article isn't factual and is propaganda, but when it gets to the Foreign Policy, it's pretty good.)

The reports of lostarmour.info seem good to me. The alone part where I see them failing a little is about to identify the loses of the Ukranian Armed Forces before the begin of the combats in Donbass. They are not reporting the mobile warfare captured in Crimea and the armoured vehicles captured in Donbass before the combats, (as example the capture of 25 PTS-2 egineering vehicles based on the T-64 captured is not reported, but later some of them are reported as loses for Novorrussia).

Taking into account their reports, with some aditional data about the captured warfare before the combats (that is not complete still), and the data of warfare for Ukraine before the war, my counts for the loses of the Ukranian Armed Forces are:

11.89% 1350 pieces of mobile land warfare.

34.68% 137 BTR-80
28.21% 22 BMD-2
26.43% 377 BMP-2
25.00% 15 BMD-1
15.91% 7 BTR-D
11.94% 8 2S9
9.17% 55 BRDM-2
7.46% 25 BM-21
6.65% 57 BTR-70
6.47% 94 BMP-1
5.41% 113 MT-LB
0.00% 0 SA-13

22.72% 252 T-64 (including engineering vehicles based on T-64)
17.65% 25 BTR-60
3.75% 3 T-55 (including engineering vehicles based on T-55)
0.00% 0 FROG-7
0.00% 0 T-54 (including engineering vehicles based on T-54)

40.00% 24 SA-11/17 (almost all the loses in Crimea)
36.05% 31 SA-10 (all the loses in Crimea)
12.50% 5 2s19
10.79% 15 BM-27
8.33% 2 2S5
6.91% 32 2S3
5.63% 9 T-72 (including engineering vehicles based on T-72)
4.33% 26 2S1
2.86% 2 SA-19 2S6
2.40% 3 SA-8
2.00% 1 GMZ-3
1.01% 1 2S7

2 BTR-3
7 BTR-4

As said before, some of the loses of Ukraine in Crimea and Donbass before the begin of the combats remain to be included (T-64, ZSU-23-4,...). My stimation of the total number of loses for Ukraine would be around 1500.

And of course a good part of the remaining land warfare of Ukraine is not ready for combat (but this is something that money and time can fix in part).

Amazing analysis. Wonder if it will appear as 'my own' output from an INT desk somewhere in the west?

Ugh, I had a post, almost through with it, and it went into the blue no where!
Thanking all of you for your posts, esp one about the ship, and the intense fighting

& saying how I'd like to be a fly on the wall, and know what is going on in Western Ukraine, re clan wars, Oligarch wars, mafia, what was Volunteer punisher battalions, and other groups, fighting for money-making enterprises, be it smuggling or whatever (although best info I can find is here)

Truth about situation in Ukraine added 3 new photos — in Ivano-Frankivsk.
16 hrs ·

10th April 2016, city Ivano-Frankivsk, failed state Ukraine

Bogdan Dosiuk, Kiev junta supporter and Ukrainian nationalist from city Ivano-Frankivsk made today and yesterday photos in city railway station. He wrote:
"..In the photo that made yesterday and today at the railway station Frankivsk in total 174 (!!!) wagons loaded by trees from Carpathian forests.
According station employee, per day through the station "Ivano-Frankivsk" coming 5 - 6 trains with Carpathian forest. One train about 50 wagons. All this goes to Romania ..."
https://www.facebook.com/bogdan.dosiuk/posts/1128894927174067
He himself in February 2014 brought to power people who created chaos in Ukraine and who care about own profit only. So, he must be thankful to yourself for destruction of Carpathian forests, which increasing from 2014 year.

Truth about situation in Ukraine added 6 new photos — in Zakarpattia Oblast.
16 hrs ·

10th April 2016, Trancarpathian region, failed state Ukraine

The consequences of mass deforestation in the mountains of the Carpathians: any rainfall causes severe flooding

"Devastating floods in Transcarpathia: water demolished bridges and washed away roads
In the network appeared photos from the village Rodnikovaya Guta in Svaliava area, where at night due to heavy rainfall has occurred flooding."
This happened yesterday
Source, local media
http://zak-kor.net/…/17505-razrushitelnyy-pavodok-na-zakarp…

Truth about situation in Ukraine in Chernivtsi Oblast.
4 hrs ·

11th April 2016, Chernivtsi region, failed state Ukraine

More chaos in Ukraine: Ukrainian "patriots' who killed people in former east of Ukraine, solving problems in their hometowns by weapons.

Unknown "patriots" with firearms at 5th April stopped truck with trees in Chernivtsi. A owner and driver of truck had weapons too, so one of activists was wounded. An owner of truck is member of fascist party "Svodoba", so police now in his side.
http://www.chas.cv.ua/31907-u-lsah-bukovini-pochalisya-boyi…
Ukrainian regional media "Chas" which described this situation praised "patriots" as defenders of forests. But because such "patriots" very often just take under control illegal business in Ukraine, soon "patriots" be sold trees from forests.
Because number of resources in Ukraine will decrease, different gangs of "patriots" will be fight with each other for some resource.

Also, would like to know how ordinary persons in Western Ukraine have it now.

As I remember bread being delivered to them last year, or food!

Truth about situation in Ukraine added 2 new photos — in Odessa, Ukraine.
5 hrs ·

11th April 2016, city Odessa, occupied Odessa republic

Yesterday, Sergiy Sternenko, boss of Odessian "Right sector' promised to kill and burn Odessian antifascists at this 2nd May.

He told this for media and for Ukrainian fascists near Odessian Palace of Trade Unions, there were killed Odessians by fascists: "2 May this year, may be a hot day. If be need we will do reconstruction of famous for You events ". You can see him in first photo.
Also, yesterday, Ukrainian fascists, aka "activists and patriots", attacked Odessian with Georgian ribbons. Odessian police didn't arrest attackers, but arrested people who tried to defend themselves from fascists. Also, Ukrainian fascists from "Right sector", "Automaidan", Self-Defence of Maidan" and other organizations burned flowers which were brought to Odessian Trade Unions Palace in memory of 48 Odessians, killed by fascists at 2nd May 2014. Police did nothing.
You can see all in video report of 112 channel from 4.40, this Ukrainian media as other support view of Ukrainian fascists.
http://tv-ua.112.ua/…/novyny-112-vypusk-vid-2100-10042016-3…

Also, I remembered that I saw how important Crimea is to Russia, and how much USA / Nato would have liked to acquire it, by, as best as I remember, watching a video, probably posted on here somewhere, about WW2,  and when the Germans invaded Crimea, and how it gave them passage into Russia. I wish I could remember where I saw the video!!

So, that is one reason I think all the crap is still on-going from Kiev government, installed puppets. & their backers.

This is not it, but it's very interesting.

The Battle for the Crimea, October 1941-July 1942 part 1

http://historum.com/blogs/irishcrusader95/595-battle-crimea-october-1941-july-1942-part-1.html

About lost armour.
Pictures and additional explanation.

part 1

par 2

part 3

part 4

part 5

One example of hell on earth(for ukrops)