The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

I always gets anxious when there is a lull of the fighting because that might lead to a peaceful settlement and betrayal at the negotiation table. I hope the dead and wounded forgive me for saying sometimes war is better than peace at any price.

But I am more confident this time. Intensity of the fighting during April decreased because the junta couldn't maintain an attrition fight going on for two months. Still it is not casualties that forced them to decrease pressure, as they are not that significant, but the desire to save forces for a decisive confrontation. There was a truce within the truce for Easter, in order to feign compliance with Minsk and assuage the European sponsors, but it is telling that the troop and material buildup continues and the tanks and artillery deployed to the frontlines are not being withdrawn.

Seems we will have to wait until the summer, but we are into the third year of war and this can't go on for much longer.

For those of us that do not know Russian, long and interesting interview with Zakharchenko. What he say and the initiatives that he has taken tell that he has no intention to return to Ukraine but rather wants to overthrow Poroshenko and his henchmen


http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/05/zakharchenko-we-will-be-sure-to-ask-for.html

While I agree with many posts about Baltica and EU in general cutting off their noses to spite their collective faces, it doesn't really matter. Embargoes work both ways and EU and their wannabes are suffering more so than before this mess started. I'll never forget the absolute shock when VVP hit them with sanctions right at the beginning of harvest season in '14. Guess they thought Russia would turn the other cheek and plead for another hit. Didn't happen. What a surprise.

All this hand wringing about NATO forces on the ground in orcland, my suggestion is look at the maps. Every NATO idiot sent to central and east orcland is dead meat in the first days of hostilities if it comes to that. Any one of them east of the line Kiev-Odessa is dead, period. Look at the length of the supply lines and look at Mother and White Russia in relation to the north borders. You think the orcs can defend that border? You think NATO can defend that border? Dream on.

Mother will punch through the north border west of Kiev and head south and west, forces from Krim with assault west on the south coast to Odessa and north to Kherson and beyond and NAF will come storming out of DNR-LNR with blood in their eye. Orcland east of the Dnepr will be the biggest cauldron in history and the west soldiers will have two choices: surrender of die. As for the orcs, there will be no quarter. Period.

Armatures talk tactics, professionals talk logistics. NATO and orcland will be at the very end of a long and tenuous supply line easy to cut and vulnerable along it's entire length. RuA will have Mother right behind them.

In Donetsk the parade of the Immortal Regiment finished. So many people, incredible, so many it is difficult to estimate, possibly tens of thousands. Be a heap of photos and video soon enough I think.

The Parade in Donetsk. Nobody came up with a figure for the Immortal Regiment yet, but clearly huge numbers, and also in Lugansk. This gets bigger every year, in Novosibirsk the Immortal Regiment was more than 200,000, possibly 250,000.

higurashihougi wrote:Somewhere in Lviv on 9 May 2016.

Facist thugs tried to vandalize the Great Patriotic War monument. But the police intervened and crushed them

Well, probably there are still good cops in Ukraina

https://www.facebook.com/achinxola/videos/614489548702964/

Ukrops made the mistake of trying to demolish monument of Stepan Tudor, a Soviet-Ukrainian writer.
Being an Ukrainian and supportive of the annexation and integration of Galicia into Ukraine, he is accepted by the Ukrainian establishment despite being commie.

Some will have already read this elsewhere, but for here, this is what Kiev foreign minister Pavel Klimkin has said about Minsk

"We are unable to reach agreements on major key issues. Unfortunately, disagreement on critical and key points leads to the fact that the Minsk process may be frozen"

http://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/3273152

I'm not going to go into all the details as to me they are all the usual diplomatic crap. What I will say is that this is an admission by Kiev that they will go to war. Minsk is essentially a ceasefire made to look like a peace plan, or at least a route to a peace plan. We all know that Kiev spits on Minsk and that for them to implement Minsk fully is a defeat, but Donbass also cannot fully implement Minsk. For Kiev to say a ceasefire may be "frozen" is contorted language to say war will resume. At this time Minsk is the only deal on the table, so if Kiev essentially rejects even their present "compliance", what is left but war. Zakharchenko today said that Donbass can withstand a "frozen conflict", but this seems to avoid discussion of what freezing a ceasefire actually means, for either there is a ceasefire or there is not. Well, there is not, but on the other hand there is not yet an offensive. Which leads to what is going on at Dokuchaevsk with large build up of ukrops in their most forward positions. An attack directly on Dokuchaevsk from ukrops positions to the west will be suicidal due to the numerous wasteheaps and lakes channeling any attackers down very narrow routes, and they leave themselves open to being destroyed by heavy MLRS bombardment before they even leave their start positions. Games I presume....

Khepesh wrote:Some will have already read this elsewhere, but for here, this is what Kiev foreign minister Pavel Klimkin has said about Minsk

"We are unable to reach agreements on major key issues. Unfortunately, disagreement on critical and key points leads to the fact that the Minsk process may be frozen"

http://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/3273152

I'm not going to go into all the details as to me they are all the usual diplomatic crap. What I will say is that this is an admission by Kiev that they will go to war. Minsk is essentially a ceasefire made to look like a peace plan, or at least a route to a peace plan. We all know that Kiev spits on Minsk and that for them to implement Minsk fully is a defeat, but Donbass also cannot fully implement Minsk. For Kiev to say a ceasefire may be "frozen" is contorted language to say war will resume. At this time Minsk is the only deal on the table, so if Kiev essentially rejects even their present "compliance", what is left but war.  Zakharchenko today said that Donbass can withstand a "frozen conflict", but this seems to avoid discussion of what freezing a ceasefire actually means, for either there is a ceasefire or there is not. Well, there is not, but on the other hand there is not yet an offensive. Which leads to what is going on at Dokuchaevsk with large build up of ukrops in their most forward positions. An attack directly on Dokuchaevsk from ukrops positions to the west will be suicidal due to the numerous wasteheaps and lakes channeling any attackers down very narrow routes, and they leave themselves open to being destroyed by heavy MLRS bombardment before they even leave their start positions. Games I presume....

Frozen may also just mean literally frozen, not progressing, with the de-facto situation simply accepted. Kiev not getting the territory back, but in return it gets to keep Western sanctions on Moscow which it seems to be assured will bear fruit any day now and lead Russia to collapse.

Khepesh you're like the Raccoon that cried wolf too many times. Every week I'm reading from you a new premonition of imminent war.

As long as Russia + European powers are not interested in it, it won't happen, simple as that. Kiev won't dare disobey, with their puppet government, collapsing economy and zero leverage against their benefactors.

I hope so. Sanctions are finally pushing Russian gov to make all the necessary changes.

flamming_python wrote:

Frozen may also just mean literally frozen, not progressing, with the de-facto situation simply accepted. Kiev not getting the territory back, but in return it gets to keep Western sanctions on Moscow which it seems to be assured will bear fruit any day now and lead Russia to collapse.

Khepesh you're like the Raccoon that cried wolf too many times. Every week I'm reading from you a new premonition of imminent war.

As long as Russia + European powers are not interested in it, it won't happen, simple as that. Kiev won't dare disobey, with their puppet government, collapsing economy and zero leverage against their benefactors.

But nothing on Minsk progresses anyway. Minsk did not even stop major military operations when it became necessary at Debaltsevo. Minsk did not stop the offensive occuring last year, pressure from Hollande and Merkel did. Minsk does not stop any minor military operations and will not stop any major ones if they become necessary. I know what Klimkin said is open to interpretation of what is meant, but for myself I see it as saying that a ceasefire agreement is to be ripped up.

I gave up making any predictions of when anything may happen. Anyway, I will simply repeat that the fate of Poroshenko and his regime ultimately rests with them, not Washington or Paris or Berlin, as it is those in Kiev that have their lives, possesions and $ on the line, and they will eventually act in their interests, not for foreigners with nothing to loose and no love for Ukraine. This is why I keep saying that war is the likely outcome, and based on what forces are known to be at the front, it is perfectly right to say it may happen at any time. It is not crying wolf to point out that just at Avdeevka are three heavily re-enforced ukrops brigades, and they are not there for defence, are they, or what ukrops forces sit behind the front from Elenovka to Volnovakha, and are also now massed at Mariupol.

What I say here, whether it is called crying wolf or not, is not important, but surely if anybody can be accused of crying wolf then it is Basurin, who speaks for Zakharchenko, who speaks for.......
Besides, it is not necessary to cry wolf as the wolf is real and already outside the door, it is simply reminding that it can come crashing thru the door anytime it wants.

flamming_python wrote:As long as Russia + European powers are not interested in it, it won't happen, simple as that. Kiev won't dare disobey, with their puppet government, collapsing economy and zero leverage against their benefactors.

The Ukrainian government is Poroshenko's government and Poroshenko is no puppet, especially not of the Europeans.
If Poroshenko wants to keep his assets in Ukraine, he has to deal with nationalists and public which means that a real, lasting freezing of the conflict is not an option.

I think we have all seen and read the various news about banderas being unpleasant and insulting to those celebrating Victory Day, and may have seen this photo of 91 year GPW veteran Lyubov Pechko having her face splashed with paint by banderas in Slavyansk. Her sister reported that she died on Tuesday morning. While nobody dies from having paint thrown at them, at 91, and on Victory Day by banderas, will I am sure have had a very serious psychological effect which at that age can cause the body to simply give up, so I would say her death was a form of murder. http://www.novorosinform.org/news/id/52746

Ukraine is bad but it could be a lot worse.

The junta-occupied areas are not being ethnically cleansed from pro-Russians and Russian speakers. There are no suicide bombers carrying out attacks against pro-Russians and Russian speakers. There is repression and people have to be careful what they say and write in the social media, but compared to Iraq and Syria this has been a civilized war. At least up to this point.

Khepesh wrote:I think we have all seen and read the various news about banderas being unpleasant and insulting to those celebrating Victory Day, and may have seen this photo of 91 year GPW veteran Lyubov Pechko having her face splashed with paint by banderas in Slavyansk. Her sister reported that she died on Tuesday morning. While nobody dies from having paint thrown at them, at 91, and on Victory Day by banderas, will I am sure have had a very serious psychological effect which at that age can cause the body to simply give up, so I would say her death was a form of murder. http://www.novorosinform.org/news/id/52746

One of these days the worm will turn, and it will be their turn.

RIP to the old lady.

Hope the perpetrators will soon rot in hell.

I can't wait for these maggots to get slaughtered...

Khepesh wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

Frozen may also just mean literally frozen, not progressing, with the de-facto situation simply accepted. Kiev not getting the territory back, but in return it gets to keep Western sanctions on Moscow which it seems to be assured will bear fruit any day now and lead Russia to collapse.

Khepesh you're like the Raccoon that cried wolf too many times. Every week I'm reading from you a new premonition of imminent war.

As long as Russia + European powers are not interested in it, it won't happen, simple as that. Kiev won't dare disobey, with their puppet government, collapsing economy and zero leverage against their benefactors.

But nothing on Minsk progresses anyway. Minsk did not even stop major military operations when it became necessary at Debaltsevo. Minsk did not stop the offensive occuring last year, pressure from Hollande and Merkel did. Minsk does not stop any minor military operations and will not stop any major ones if they become necessary. I know what Klimkin said is open to interpretation of what is meant, but for myself I see it as saying that a ceasefire agreement is to be ripped up.

I gave up making any predictions of when anything may happen. Anyway, I will simply repeat that the fate of Poroshenko and his regime ultimately rests with them, not Washington or Paris or Berlin, as it is those in Kiev that have their lives, possesions and $ on the line, and they will eventually act in their interests, not for foreigners with nothing to loose and no love for Ukraine. This is why I keep saying that war is the likely outcome, and based on what forces are known to be at the front, it is perfectly right to say it may happen at any time. It is not crying wolf to point out that just at Avdeevka are three heavily re-enforced ukrops brigades, and they are not there for defence, are they, or what ukrops forces sit behind the front from Elenovka to Volnovakha, and are also now massed at Mariupol.

What I say here, whether it is called crying wolf or not, is not important, but surely if anybody can be accused of crying wolf then it is Basurin, who speaks for Zakharchenko, who speaks for.......
Besides, it is not necessary to cry wolf as the wolf is real and already outside the door, it is simply reminding that it can come crashing thru the door anytime it wants.

I think the primary reason for the stop of the military actions after the battle of Debaltsevo is that Novorrussia reached its military goals in the area. Only that. Nothing related to the pressure Hollande or Merkel. Minsk II has not value as agreement because no-one of the sides is satisfied with it.

The question is that Novorrussia has assured the military help of Russia in the needed degree, but it is fairly more prudent in its military apetite, surely advised by Russia.

In the other side, the government of Ukraine wants war, wants to lead all the world to fight against Russia, but has not the needed support for it. Basically Ukraine has not the European support for a big war, and the United States want Europe to pay this war and Ukraine to put the deaths. The United States want the European military budgets to be increased by fear to Russia, but it backfires because no-one attacks to an enemy by fear. Fear means defense, not attack. Europe is on defense mode, like Russia, while the United States remains on attack mode (with budget limits) despite the change form GW Bush to Obama.

I think new cases like the Battle of Debaltsevo are possible still, but both sides know that the next battle surely will be bigger and more difficult than the previous. I think new battles are possible, even with significant but limited changes in the current front line. In my opinion the changes can be more likely in the front of the Donets River, and also in the front of Mariupol.

Apologies that I repeated a report from Novorosinform about GPW veteran Lyubov Pechko that was incorrect. It was in fact her sister who had died. She died of heart attack after seeing the disgraceful actions of banderas in Slavyansk. Lyubov herself is too concerned about reprisals to make official complaint about what banderas did to her. This interest in her has also revealed parts of her story, she was wounded during the war, one of her brothers died at Kiev and another, a tankist, was MIA, and now her sister due to actions of the new nazis. This corrected story is perhaps even more tragic. A reward of $10 000 is offered for the names of the banderas involved on the attack on Lyubov.

In more cheerful news, yesterday Givi's wife gave birth to his son, Roman Mikhailovich. Born Friday 13th at 13:00. I don't go with superstition, but here I will make an exception and say this is bad luck for banderas of the future, if any survive these times.....

eehnie wrote:

I think the primary reason for the stop of the military actions after the battle of Debaltsevo is that Novorrussia reached its military goals in the area. Only that. Nothing related to the pressure Hollande or Merkel. Minsk II has not value as agreement because no-one of the sides is satisfied with it.

The question is that Novorrussia has assured the military help of Russia in the needed degree, but it is fairly more prudent in its military apetite, surely advised by Russia.

In the other side, the government of Ukraine wants war, wants to lead all the world to fight against Russia, but has not the needed support for it. Basically Ukraine has not the European support for a big war, and the United States want Europe to pay this war and Ukraine to put the deaths. The United States want the European military budgets to be increased by fear to Russia, but it backfires because no-one attacks to an enemy by fear. Fear means defense, not attack. Europe is on defense mode, like Russia, while the United States remains on attack mode (with budget limits) despite the change form GW Bush to Obama.

I think new cases like the Battle of Debaltsevo are possible still, but both sides know that the next battle surely will be bigger and more difficult than the previous. I think new battles are possible, even with significant but limited changes in the current front line. In my opinion the changes can be more likely in the front of the Donets River, and also in the front of Mariupol.

Debaltsevo was only partial success, and I think if everything had gone according to plan Svetlodarsk will have been taken and ukrops pushed some way back from the northern side of Gorlovka and there would be no continous fighting at Zaitsevo. IMO, while Minsk-1 was crap, Minsk-2 was a device by which both sides had an excuse to stop fighting, for while ukrops were beaten out of Debaltsevo, they had fought hard and long enough to seriously slow down VSN operations, particulary at Popasnya and around Svetlodarsk, to make further operations turn into a meatgrinder with no clear sight of reaching objectives without "divisions of Buryats" and some very and too obvious help. But the offensive I mentioned was the ukrops one that never happened. It was on early evening of 24th August after Ukraine Independance Day celebrations that Poroshenko was talked to by Merkel and Hollande, and next day everything went quiet, the bombardments of Gorlovka stopped, of Kuibishevsky, Telmanovo, everything, because there was no need as offensive had been called off.

Yes, certainly from Russia the "advice" to the needed degree, and I think most here would be in agreement that it is to let ukrops attack.

And yes, Kiev wants the West to help acheive military victory, but only US is willing, or capable in any significant way. I know I have often said that Poroshenko will ultimately take his fate in his own hands, and he will have to, but perhaps he waits to see if Clinton wins as perhaps from her there has been words of hope that when she is president then action may follow. But if it Trump wins, or opinion polls by late August show him in front with clear margin, then Poroshenko may not want to wait. I or anybody can look into the cloudy crystal ball and make guesses, but it's all in Poroshenko's mind and in what those around him think. Another way of seeing this is that say, for instance, whoever wins in November says to Poroshenko to attack and we will back you up, then without causing WWIII, and without armored formations in Ukraine, US can only back Kiev up with words and $, and it seems they are not even very generous with $ at this time. Poroshenko is between the "rock and hard place", military defeat if he attacks, political and potential coup if he ends ATO and withdraws from occupied areas of Donbass. To end ATO is probably psychologically not possible for him and many around him, and will I am sure lead to serious disturbaces in Ukraine, but, as with all military ventures, there is some hope, some hope that you really do surpise your enemy, or they make significant errors. Other than return to full cold war, or even some military actions, I don't think America has anything to offer Poroshenko that can help in in a serious way, so it's all on his shoulders no matter what loony wins US election, and Obama will not help by anything more than talk.

Apart from the political pressures you mention, bubbling under the surface is the financial situation. The IMF is moving forward at a snails pace and given their influence that must be the US's intention. No significant money is arriving from anywhere else. It is a bad time of year for agricultural exports so no money there. Then finally there is the London $3B court case due to start after a couple of 4 week postponements at the end of this month.

Losing that case, which they will, will be a watershed for Kiev as it will give Moscow a very powerful negotiating card with some very interesting options as to how they play it.

All in all that lot adds to the 'go now' side of the balance.

Khepesh wrote:I know I have often said that Poroshenko will ultimately take his fate in his own hands, and he will have to, but perhaps he waits to see if Clinton wins as perhaps from her there has been words of hope that when she is president then action may follow. But if it Trump wins, or opinion polls by late August show him in front with clear margin, then Poroshenko may not want to wait.

Very good observation that many (I think so anyway) don't take into consideration. The upcoming presidential election is something that Poroshenko should closely follow and he probably does. Trump has stated many times that the US should withdraw from those places that don't serve US interests or places that will lead to nowhere. He's also for a closer cooperation with Russia on international matters. With all of that being said, he's the least favorable candidate for Ukraine. Clinton is different, she has stated many times that Russia should pay for X and Y in the past. And I don't think she's changed her geopolitical views on this over the years.

The closer we get to November the more provocations we should expect. Kiev can't afford losing the spotlight because a frozen conflict isn't in their favor (IMHO).

I was not going to mention this as there is no link as proof, but due to events today in Moscow that are very similar, but on even larger scale that at Kiev and with multiple deaths, including policeman, I thought perhaps to say. Yesterday, not in the news, was major fighting between two factions in Kiev. Fighting took place at a building and parking lot between Revutskiy and Kharkov streets. Grenades were thrown into the building during the fighting and two people were injured. Local police had to be replaced by special forces to restore order. This via the raccoons of Izium.

Khepesh wrote:I was not going to mention this as there is no link as proof, but due to events today in Moscow that are very similar, but on even larger scale that at Kiev and with multiple deaths, including policeman, I thought perhaps to say. Yesterday, not in the news, was major fighting between two factions in Kiev. Fighting took place at a building and parking lot between Revutskiy and Kharkov streets. Grenades were thrown into the building during the fighting and two people were injured. Local police had to be replaced by special forces to restore order. This via the raccoons of Izium.

Interesting. You have friends in those neighborhoods?

Them damn raccoons are everywhere

PapaDragon wrote:
I can't wait for these maggots to get slaughtered...

no mercy