The Situation in the Ukraine. #25

Today Turchynov was inspecting ukrops positions at the Mariupol front. He said about "Russian occupation troops of 1st and 2nd Korps greatly increasing the number of attacks" bla bla bla, and then about build up of "enemy" forces facing Mariupol and said this was evidence of "Russian general staff training for offensive operations". It is a little unusual for Turchinov or other members of the regime to be specific about an offensive against a particular location, usually it is in general terms. But as he also speaks about increased activity of "professionally trained DRG and snipers", it seems he may be creating a casus beli, a new Gleiwitz. Likely it is just verbal diarhea, but due to ukrops intensification of bombardments and other operations, could be yet another sign of impending war. http://www.rnbo.gov.ua/news/2529.html

@Gunship Democracy:

https://www.rt.com/news/350954-odessa-nationalists-polish-politicians/?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=aplication_chrome&utm_campaign=chrome

Nationalists in the Ukrainian port city of Odessa were for several hours blocking a group of Polish politicians in a local hotel for hours as they accused the foreign delegation of having a pro-Russian stance due to plans to commemorate Odessa Massacre victims.

The action was aimed at preventing the Polish politicians from laying flowers at the Kulikovo Pole Square to commemorate the victims of the Odessa Massacre.

Few weeks back there was rumors that DNR and LNR could be merged under unified leadership of Zakharchenko. No strong rebuttal of this emerged. Now Bolotov is suggesting that the project of Novorossiya as a real political entity and not a historical name for part of Southwest Russia could resume. As with all such rumors etc there are aspects that need deeper thought of what it could mean, why are these rumors, and now something more concrete from Bolotov, emerging. While DNR and LNR quickly emerged from the ex Ukrainian oblasts, the beginnings of a merged state of Novorossiya was essentially stamped on, presumably as it was seen as to much of a provocation and to help remove part of the shouts of Washington that Russia has annexed LDNR. Of course such shouts and petulant foot stamping do not stop. If the rumors and what Bolotov says does mean possible creation of Novorossiya, it could mean that the wheels to end all this begin to turn. I'm speculating, and it may all be nothing, but....

Speculation and rumination is never a bad thing. As an aside, we now have S400's. That in and of itself is of some import. Mother has hoisted her shield to her shoulder and half drawn her sword from her scabbard. The message is crystal clear.

Russia's permanent representative to OSCE, Alexander Lukashevich, has made a statement to OSCE council that Kiev has moved to the front, among heavy equipment and tanks, Tochka-U, to Stanitsa Luganskaya, and says this can lead to escalation and portends the worst. I rate this as being far more serious than the statements from Basurin. However, I do not know why Kiev would move Tochka so close to the front, and only 15 km from border, unless they think they can lay down heavy bombardment of Lugansk city, or on what they see as crucial sites in or around the city by having very short flight time and hoping to avoid detection for as long as possible. Hope the radars are permanently manned... http://dnr-news.com/dnr/34100-ukrainskie-siloviki-perebrasyvayut-v-donbass-raketnye-kompleksy-tochka-u.html

Might they be targeting NAF reserve forces located beyond the range of their other rocket systems? But it is strange that they have brought them up so close to NAF barrel, let alone rocket, artillery.

The plot thickens. Rumors of a coup in Turkei, apparently fighting in Ankara. More to come with the dawn.

From Interfax

NATO has channeled $130 million in aid to Ukraine to restore its defense capability over the past two years, Ukrainian Defense Ministry's military policy, strategic planning and international cooperation department director Anatoliy Petrenko has said.

"If speaking about NATO's assistance to the Ukrainian Armed Forces over the past two years, we can say today that this sum is over $130 million," he said at a briefing in Kyiv on Wednesday.

Besides, Petrenko did not answer a question about the amount of money envisaged in the support package to Ukraine, which had been adopted at the NATO summit, which was held in Warsaw on July 8-9.

This is terrible. Every day people get killed in Donbas because Putin didn't send police to help Yanukovych.

Putin has no more reason to send police to Kiev than to send police to Ankara...

There are Russians living all over the world it is not Putins job to interfere to protect them. He has plenty of things to deal with already.

Quietly in the background the aid convoys keep coming, it must be well over 55,000 tons now.

Russia has sent out its 54th humanitarian aid convoy for residents of Ukraine’s crisis-hit southeast (Donbas), the Russian Emergencies Ministry informs.

MOSCOW (Sputnik) – The aid includes food, medicine, school textbooks and sports equipment, a ministry spokesperson told journalists early on Saturday. "Today, the convoy with humanitarian aid for Donbas residents started its movement from the Noginsk rescue center of the Emergencies Ministry," the spokesperson said.

The Donetsk region will get over 750 metric tons of humanitarian cargo, while the Luhansk region will get about 2.5 tonnes (metric tons).

Ukraine’s southeast has been severely affected by Kiev’s special military operation, launched in the southeastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions in April 2014. The operation was a response to local residents' refusal to recognize the new coup-installed government in the country.

JohninMK wrote:Might they be targeting NAF reserve forces located beyond the range of their other rocket systems? But it is strange that they have brought them up so close to NAF barrel, let alone rocket, artillery.

Tochka situated further west, more like just north of Pervomaisk can cover just about all LDNR from Krasnodon to Starobeshevo, and that includes all the areas where reserves are situated. Tochka at Volnovakha will cover all the south. I'm sure Kiev is given satellite info from Americans, and from their own spies in LDNR to know where the reserves are, so if Tochka were used against them I think it would be as part of opening bombardments of offensive and hoping to catch reserves before they move, as otherwise Tochka without nuke is not very effective against armored formations on the move, only static targets. I think the first reports we get that offensive is really happening will be off massive explosions heard by residents along the approximate line Shakhtersk - Torez - Snezhnoe - Krasny Luch, which will be Tochka, at the same time as heavy bombardments at certain parts of the front and a little way behind, like Elenovka and Starobeshevo being hit by Pion and Smerch.

Khepesh wrote:

JohninMK wrote:Might they be targeting NAF reserve forces located beyond the range of their other rocket systems? But it is strange that they have brought them up so close to NAF barrel, let alone rocket, artillery.

Tochka situated further west, more like just north of Pervomaisk can cover just about all LDNR from Krasnodon to Starobeshevo, and that includes all the areas where reserves are situated. Tochka at Volnovakha will cover all the south.  I'm sure Kiev is given satellite info from Americans, and from their own spies in LDNR to know where the reserves are, so if Tochka were used against them I think it would be as part of opening bombardments of offensive and hoping to catch reserves before they move, as otherwise Tochka without nuke is not very effective against armored formations on the move, only static targets. I think the first reports we get that offensive is really happening will be off massive explosions heard by residents along the approximate line Shakhtersk - Torez - Snezhnoe - Krasny Luch, which will be Tochka, at the same time as heavy bombardments at certain parts of the front and a little way behind, like Elenovka and Starobeshevo being hit by Pion and Smerch.

Any guess when? I guess that's the $64. question. & before U.S. Presidential election, I suppose?
Or maybe it doesn't make any difference. Maybe Kiev government is going to do what Kiev government is going to do, in the end.

Well, the attack from Svetlodarsk arc was sort of forecast, or at least that something interesting would happen to within a few days of when it did, but as for THE offensive, nothing. Tonight, next week, next year, never, I don't know. However, I do not think that Kiev can keep it's forces at this level for much longer, and the longer they wait, then their capability, at whatever level it really is, will deteriorate as their morale sinks and their country sinks. On the other side of the coin, does LDNR then exist as now in only a small part of their territories for ever, and the aid convoys go on forever. Of course the situation for LDNR is far better than for Ukraine, but people expect that all the occupied territories will be liberated and that they become a recognized state or part of Russia, and if these things do not happen, then eventually there could be unrest. This is not South Ossetia or Abkhazia or PMR, it will not go on forever with an enemy army along the border and ready to invade at any moment. This is even worse than Korea or around Israel, far worse, and is uncharted territory, so there is no map to see what may happen. You could say that Putin has a searchlight shining into the dark, but he cannot see everything, and Poroshenko waves a torch around wildly, seeing monsters lurking in the shadows, and we barely hold a match.

Edit: Just read this on politnavigator, and clearly prompted by events in Turkey, tho the basic premise has been written about before. Scenario is nazi radikals attempting a third maidan and severe civil disorder breaks out. Army has to take action to restore order, but the entire affair is actually a coup against Poroshenko. IMO, I think this is not impossible, and as the Army will be more aware than Poroshenko that they face disaster on the battlefield against VSN, a military regime could stop the ATO and withdraw beyond LDNR borders. The fault will be put at Poroshenko and his regime, any excuse for Russian intervention will go, LDNR will be free to form a country or rejoin Russia. Beyond that is too difficult to see, about Odessa and Kharkov etc. Possibly civil war, who knows.... http://www.politnavigator.net/durnojj-primer-zarazitelen-v-kieve-idjot-podgotovka-k-voennomu-perevorotu.html

Resistance wrote:This is terrible. Every day people get killed in Donbas because Putin didn't send police to help Yanukovych.

Are you mad? Yanukovich had more than enough of his own police forces, but he didn't use them properly. They have enough Berkut special police forces in Kiev, that with proper orders they could deal with Maidan protests. President Yanukovich had all needed autorities to send additional police forces and army if needed to clean with Maidan madness, but he didn't use them. Putin didn't send police in Ukraine, because Yanukovich didn't ask for them and he didn't use his own police. You could not blame Putin here, because Putin is president of Russia, not of Ukraine. Yanukovich fail to do his job as president in Ukraine to secure law and order.

medo wrote:

Resistance wrote:This is terrible. Every day people get killed in Donbas because Putin didn't send police to help Yanukovych.

Are you mad? Yanukovich had more than enough of his own police forces, but he didn't use them properly. They have enough Berkut special police forces in Kiev, that with proper orders they could deal with Maidan protests. President Yanukovich had all needed autorities to send additional police forces and army if needed to clean with Maidan madness, but he didn't use them. Putin didn't send police in Ukraine, because Yanukovich didn't ask for them and he didn't use his own police. You could not blame Putin here, because Putin is president of Russia, not of Ukraine. Yanukovich fail to do his job as president in Ukraine to secure law and order.

Maidan was a CIA backed coup. Yanukovych alone didn't have enough police to stop hundreds of thousands of Nazis in Kiev. Putin should have been smarter. Putin should have sent military into Kiev to peace keep without Yanukovych's approval. Ukraine to Russia is Canada to the US. Obama would have sent military to Canada if something like Maidan happened in Ottawa.

GarryB wrote:Putin has no more reason to send police to Kiev than to send police to Ankara...

There are Russians living all over the world it is not Putins job to interfere to protect them. He has plenty of things to deal with already.

Garry, your understanding of military matters is fantastic.
But you don't understand this.

The Donbass is far more "Russian" than much of the Russian Federation - if that is even possible.
Its only a bizarre turd called Yeltsin and American evil-doing that has challenged this.

As for the Ukrainian successive "governments", they're as relevant as shit. Tymoshenko, Vitaly Bitchko and the current jerkoffs in power, their Mother tongue is Russian. Ukrainian is a concoction of Galician Nazis, Canadian scumbags, and neo-Con vermin in Washington.

The reason Putin is doing this "good cop, not interfering" is that far more than "just" the Donbass is Russian. He's playing the long game, and sooner or later, other areas of the former Ukraine will be turning back to Moscow.

And Russia isn't just the Federation. It most of the Ukrainian area, much of Belarus and part of Kazakstan. The authority is history, events, intl law, ethnicity and language.

Ukrainian "nationality" long term will be as credible as "Cornish" nationality in Britain.

Still nothing more than an 'assessment' from the US on MH17. Clearly they don't want the proof out there.

The United States Department of State reiterated its belief that Malaysia Airlines MH17 flight was shot down from the territory controlled by "Russian-backed separatists," it said in a statement marking the second anniversary of the plane shootdown on Saturday.

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 crashed with 298 people on board on July 17, 2014, in eastern Ukraine, while en route to Kuala Lumpur from Amsterdam, leaving no survivors. Kiev and independence supporters in Ukraine’s southeast have blamed each other for the downing of the MH17 plane.

"In October 2015, we welcomed the findings of the Dutch Safety Board in its final report on the cause of the MH 17 crash. This report validated that MH 17 was shot down by a surface-to-air missile. Our own assessment has not changed – the missile was fired from territory controlled by Russian-backed separatist forces in eastern Ukraine," the statement read.

Dutch investigators published a report in October 2015 claiming that the Malaysia Airlines aircraft appeared to have been downed using a Russia-produced Buk surface-to-air missile system. The report did not identify the exact location from where the missile was fired.

Which is the proof that Western propaganda is undergoing a steady decline. They have to make blalant lies in front of the public since they no longer have any better method to deceive people.

A few days ago, the Ukrop Air Farce lost a SU-25.

The aircraft cauht fire on the runway and was completely destroyed.
No casualties.

http://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2016/07/14/na-zlitnij-smuzi-zagorivsya-litak-lotchik-diyav-profesijno--/

Looks like the Ukrainians are doing some MH-17 testing. This is part of the article

Everything necessary for modeling the explosion which caused the MH17 flight crash in the first arena test staged in Ukraine was made in Pavlohrad. Original live Buk missiles were assigned for the testing. A cockpit mockup and target layout elements were deployed on two separate platforms. Experts installed photo and video cameras and 3D scanning devices in the same spots.

"No such experiments had been conducted in the territory of our country before, and only cooperation between Ukrainian and foreign experts made them possible," the institute said in the report.

The warhead and the missile blew up strictly on schedule, it said. The test had a number of objectives, such as to visualize the impact of the warhead and missile explosion on the plane hull, to either confirm or refute the interposition of the plane and the missile at the moment of explosion (the rendezvous point) suggested by prior calculations, to determine the zone of spread of warhead and missile fragments, their number and density of their impact on the modeled cockpit, to study a change in the trajectory of fragments after their encounter with the plane hull, to determine the degree of deformation of fragments, etc.

"The information obtained in the arena test will be used to specify the place from where the missile which downed the Boeing 777 was launched and its trajectory," the institute said.

The experts also focused on other issues, which had been previously regarded as secondary, such as studies of the blast wave's nature, the search for explosive residue and analysis of the damage similar to that suffered by the plane.

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/357752.html

Garry, your understanding of military matters is fantastic.
But you don't understand this.

The Donbass is far more "Russian" than much of the Russian Federation - if that is even possible.
Its only a bizarre turd called Yeltsin and American evil-doing that has challenged this.

Either way... Putin sending troops in to put down the coup would have been counter productive and his enemies everywhere would claim it as proof of his aggressive nature of using force when it is time for democracy... you know... the way the west does things. HAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHHAhHAHAHHHHAHHA...

St Sofia in Kiev, people sing the old anthem, "God save the Tsar". They are also only 100 m from SBU building. UOC has disclaimed anything to do with this. Yesterday was anniversary of murder of Romanovs http://dnr24.su/ukrainskie-novosti/kiev/15572-pust-voskresnet-vtoraya-rossiya-v-stolice-ukrainy-veruyuschie-speli-bozhe-carya-hrani.html

Maybe he doesn't realise that Russia's future is benefiting from the sanctions, it is the EU that is suffering.

Monday, July 18, 2016 - 16:33

In the near future, the hostilities in Donbass are going to revitalise, said the Ukrainian Parliament Speaker Andrey Paruby at a press conference in Kiev. 'We see that it is not just that Putin does not fulfill the Minsk Agreements, but he also activates the hostilities. In the near future, I think there will be an even greater intensification of fighting, especially after Russia has understood that the sanctions are not to be lifted,' said Paruby.

In addition, the Verkhovnaya Rada speaker fears that Russia intends to use the fact that today the US attention is diverted to the election campaign in the United States. 'We need to prepare for the defense,' called Paruby.

DONi News Agency