The Situation in the Ukraine. #25

I have noticed a large increase in the attacks on Lugansk territory, it seems these are attacks in the junction of the two republics to attack towards Debaltsevo. In addition to the attack of the 29 June, the following report is of interest.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/07/deserter-from-kiev-forces-tells-of-nato.html

Still, I am with Khepesh that the main blow will come in the southern front.

I added a new entry to my blog after a long time, after analyzing the reports for May-June

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2016/07/18/informe-resumen-guerra-de-desgaste-mayo-junio/

Summary if you don't want to google translate

Seems I was right on my estimate of 5.000 (five thousand) ukranian casualties for the spring campaing. DONI confirmed from ukranian sources that there were 3,500 wounded in ukranian hospitals for that period. Given a constant ratio of 3 wounded per 1 dead, that indeed confirms my estimate.
in english

https://dninews.com/node/5762

Since those 3,500 wounded are the serious cases and the crippled, if we add those with lesser wounds, the total may be higher still.

So since the intensity of the fighting has doubled, ukrops casualties in May-June are very likely another five thousand, to a total 10,000, or approximately 20% of the frontline strength. The recurring reports about ukranian units being understaffed do confirm this estimate.

Not only the ukros are running out of men, they are also likely running out of artillery shells. I estimate they have used 4,000 tons this year. The fact that the bombardments are increasing in number and the artillery is used increasingly more in proportion to mortars is another clue of a impending offensive. They will have to attack soon or else this attrition war will consume their ammo stocks and wear out their guns.

Don't get your hopes up, others will supply what Kiev needs by proxy. The orcs will still lose, just more on both sides will die. Figures.

Tens of thousands of deaths in Donbas on both sides with civilians caught in the crossfire. All this could have been prevented had Putin sent police to Kiev to put down Maidan.

Situation report from "Mage" for period 11 - 17 July.
Ukrops continue infiltrating into "grey zone" under covering fire of mortars and artillery. Their purpose is to push forward into the grey zone as far as possible and consolidate ground gained. During this week about 600 mercenaries of various nationalities have moved to the front, and according to various reports, 50 - 70 per day. These mercenaries are housed in the vacated rest and boarding houses and dormitories of abandoned factories. "Mage" does not say by name, but he is talking about Avdeevka. He says these mercenaries recently arriving are not defensive forces, as has been mostly the case for the last two years, but assault troops. He then says about good news, in that in the past the constraints of Minsk have only allowed specific counter battery fire on ukrops positions that are known to be firing on civilian areas or directly on VSN positions. Now VSN have been freed to initiate fire and hit ukrops attempting to hide in ravines and places they will hope to launch attack from, and that when ATO now complain that "seperatists began to fire" they are probably correct, and they are being damaged.

How long this increasing level can continue without something breaking I don't know. Around Donetsk are heavy thunderstorms and more forecast. Ukrops have a habit of making their more intensive bombardments under cover of thunder, and the still slightly curious action towards Debaltsevo more than a week ago was initiated under heavy thunder and lighting to try and mask what happens. I will repeat what I read on another report within the last hour that the action taking place at Spartak area at this moment looks like attempt at breakthru. I doubt it, but from something seemingly small and "normal" can come something bigger.

On military maps it shows ukrops shelling Kievsky district. The shells are in fact falling over Tochmash. In Oktyabr, also marked, the ukrops shells are falling along Signalnoi street and a house is reported destroyed by about five shells landing. Signalnoi is unfortunate as it is the street along the eastern edge of Oktyabr and facing Peski. Many residents were evacuated last year, but some remain. In total, 213 civilians have been killed in Kuibishevsky district, most in Oktyabr, since beginning of the war. The number of wounded, which will be much higher than deaths, is not released. Combined total of civilian deaths for Kuibishevsky, Kievsky and Petrovsky is 477 as reported today by head of Kuibishevsky district Ivan Prikhodko.

JohninMK wrote:Can you imagine their faces when they woke up to this news in Kiev? The end is coming for them. The risk of Trump getting in in November is too high, its do or die time now.

Pro-Trump campaigners have canceled a GOP pledge to supply Ukraine with lethal weapons during a committee platform meeting on national security, disturbing Republican hawks who have consistently called for a more aggressive anti-Russia posture.

On Monday, Republicans voted for the possible extension of existing anti-Russian sanctions, and the ability to provide authorities in Kiev with “appropriate [military] assistance.”

Earlier, many Republicans pushed for what they termed ‘lethal defensive weapons. The change to the amendment’s wording came at the hands of Trump delegates attending the GOP platform meeting in Cleveland. Trump-supporting delegates insisted that the language in the initial proposal be altered, and wrote a new amendment ruling out sending US weapons to Ukraine. The corrected bill was passed at the meeting, to the anger of Republican security leaders who subsequently accused the former reality-TV producer of betraying the world’s democracies.

“This is another example of Trump being out of step with GOP leadership and the mainstream in a way that shows he would be dangerous for America and the world,” Rachel Hoff, a GOP platform committee member claimed, following the move.

Trump has repeatedly said that radical Islamism and terrorism is a greater threat to Europe than Russia. He said he would “get along very well” with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Mike Flynn, foreign policy advisor to Trump, has suggested that Moscow and Washington join forces to counter Daesh in the Middle East. "Putin will be a reliable partner for certain things for the United States, yes. Absolutely. We need to have a relationship from the top to the bottom, same with China," Flynn told German magazine Spiegel Online.

http://sputniknews.com/us/20160719/1043246669/trump-lethal-weapons-ukraine.html

I'm beginning to think Trump may actually win.

From the Kiev Post

The establishment, elite, and Dems, and Kiev cronies are running scared. I think they see the handwriting on the wall.



Reno Domenico: Impressions of Day 1 of the Republican National Convention

http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/reno-domenico-impressions-of-day-1-of-the-republican-national-convention-419061.html

Forces of LNR practise assault river crossing, and this is the second such major exercise within the last few months. Plotnitsky is saying that these are just normal guys, ex tractor drivers etc, but now professionals and serving as they see it as their duty. He also says that we are not showing all we could, well, of course....

Khepesh, what's your take on the opinions of Alexander Zhuchkovsky? Posted here

http://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/1460478.html

I could read it in Google translate and sounded too defeatist. Yes, I would agree the NAF are battle weary and demoralized for not being able to fight back, but that would change once they are given free rein. Also, he basically said they were losing the war and about to be cut in half when the Russians intervened, when I still firmly believe that was not the case, the Ukranians were in their last gasp and had set themselves up for a disaster, in my view Russian help only precipitated events.

I no longer pay attention to Strelkov, I do admit Zhuchkovsky makes some good points I already suspected, but come on, the Ukranian army is a joke. They can attack but they are no better off than they were in 2015. Tactically they might be not as bad, but their leadership is awful and their material superiority keeps eroding.

Khepesh wrote:Forces of LNR practise assault river crossing, and this is the second such major exercise within the last few months. Plotnitsky is saying that these are just normal guys, ex tractor drivers etc, but now professionals and serving as they see it as their duty. He also says that we are not showing all we could, well, of course....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=KncDTHrl4xA

Are they preparing for final assault to Dniepr ?

From burbuja.info

#BREAKING Urgent message from militia NAF are advancing in the south westbound #ukraine #nato #eu #donbas #krieg
*

It's just a local counterattack, but they are hitting back, it can be seen as the tide starting to turn.

Ispan wrote:Khepesh, what's your take on the opinions of Alexander Zhuchkovsky? Posted here

http://chervonec-001.livejournal.com/1460478.html

I could read it in Google translate and sounded too defeatist. Yes, I would agree the NAF are battle weary and demoralized for not being able to fight back, but that would change once they are given free rein. Also, he basically said they were losing the war and about to be cut in half when the Russians intervened, when I still firmly believe that was not the case, the Ukranians were in their last gasp and had set themselves up for a disaster, in my view Russian help only precipitated events.

I no longer pay attention to Strelkov, I do admit Zhuchkovsky makes some good points I already suspected, but come on, the Ukranian army is a joke. They can attack but they are no better off than they were in 2015. Tactically they might be not as bad, but their leadership is awful and their material superiority keeps eroding.

Zhuchkovsky's rebutal of Shchemelinin's comments on what he originally wrote are correct, for instance there are not going to be 500 thousand volunteers from within Donbass suddenly appear in a crisis or over a longer period of time joining VSN. On the point of terminology, it is technically the Peoples Militia, and it all started as a militia. But to suggest that because it is "only" a militia, and therefore some pale shadow of a real army, is simply semantics and belongs in the cesspit of "partners" as it is part of  a deliberate mask. Whatever name is used, they are the armed forces of a territory known as Novorossiya, therefore vooruzhennye sili Novorossii - VSN, literally, if not by official name. Then on what Zhukovsky says is not wrong, even if it sounds gloomy, when applied to "reality", but he is not writing about reality, and I hope the difference is seen, and on his "reality", which at face value only is reality as it is presented, is a correct assesment. But it becomess a difficult area, and many do not touch it, because mental contortions have to be engaged in to say this or that when what is meant is that and this and something else. A comment under the Chervonec article is interesting, and excepting Kallingrad, I could put in a slightly different way and say that at this point in time, Russia stretches from Vladivostok to Donetsk. You see how disscussion is hampered by "reality" and reality, and that to say some things is difficult, or even to say which "reality" is reality, or the other way around.

I read this several times and I think it makes sense, and that Zhuchkovsky is right and wrong at the same time, but there is nothing to worry about despite some nonsense in complying with Minsk, and we see this begins to break.