The Situation in the Ukraine. #25

higurashihougi wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Forces of LNR practise assault river crossing, and this is the second such major exercise within the last few months. Plotnitsky is saying that these are just normal guys, ex tractor drivers etc, but now professionals and serving as they see it as their duty. He also says that we are not showing all we could, well, of course....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=KncDTHrl4xA

Are they preparing for final assault to Dniepr ?

Would interesting, and very welcome, but really just to keep ukrops guessing if there will be a crossing of the Donets or not, and there will have to be eventually. I think a few more PMP sections as well to cross the Dnepr, but they were made in Lugansk, so all "home grown"....

Longer version of the exercise. Back in the day this would have been practicing to cross the Weser and then the Rhine, well, who knows

Khepesh wrote:

higurashihougi wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Forces of LNR practise assault river crossing, and this is the second such major exercise within the last few months. Plotnitsky is saying that these are just normal guys, ex tractor drivers etc, but now professionals and serving as they see it as their duty. He also says that we are not showing all we could, well, of course....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=KncDTHrl4xA

Are they preparing for final assault to Dniepr ?

Would interesting, and very welcome, but really just to keep ukrops guessing if there will be a crossing of the Donets or not, and there will have to be eventually. I think a few more PMP sections as well to cross the Dnepr, but they were made in Lugansk, so all "home grown"....

In my view, the most likely scenarios for new battles are:

- Horlivka.
- The area of the frontline to the noth of the Donets river. Basically including the Stanytsia-Luhanska Raion and likely a part of the Novoaidar Raion.
- All the sector to the south of the Volnovakha Raion, including Mariupol.
- And maybe Avdeevka.

Then crossing rivers makes full sense to me.

No IMF money to fund war in the short/medium term

KIEV (Sputnik) – Ukraine does not anticipate receiving the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) next tranche of financial aid this month, Ukrainian Minister of Finance Oleksandr Danylyuk said Thursday.

“If it does not pass in July, and it seems that we do not have time based on the schedule, then it will [pass] immediately after the fund management’s return from the holidays,” Danylyuk told reporters, suggesting that the IMF executive board’s annual recess lasts for three weeks.

Late last week, the minister said a preliminary plan was to receive three $3-4 billion tranches by the end of the year.

Probably nothing but on twitter apparently Avakov, Klitschko and Poroshenko all out of the country on vacation. Those closer may have more.

franco wrote:Probably nothing but on twitter apparently Avakov, Klitschko and Poroshenko all out of the country on vacation. Those closer may have more.

Apparently Poroshenko is in Malaga Spain and giving orders to the Prime Minister from there.
http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/07/confirmed-amidst-sharpening-crisis.html

The representative of the Ukrainian military department Alexey Chernobay told told reporters during a briefing that the armed forces of Ukraine supplemented by 41 thousand soldiers under contract.

"Citizens of Ukraine continues to contract military service in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Since early this year signed a contract with an army of 40 thousand 800 personnel, of which about 4.5 thousand - the officers, "- said the representative of the Ministry of Defence.

Also, the official assured that the soldier profession continues to be one of the most competitive in the labor market.


Call of young people for military service was abolished in the Square in 2013. The current government has explained this by saying that it plans to raise this army of professionals. After the events at the Donbass, Oleksandr Turchynov signed a decree on the resumption of conscription for military service, but instead several waves of mobilizations were held in 2014 and 2015.

A small percentage of the Death Trek...



Enjoy...T72B3 towing Ukrop raguli...One Bulat and one BMP-2. Small part of the roughly 30 intact vehicles abandoned by Ukropistan.

Small detail, the T72 has its EFT's on, ask yourself why ;-)/

#NotRussian, #JustAcrossTheBorder, #PoliteKickAss

I see also Ukropistani filth has also gotten the message at the "other" place. BTW, we're still discussing about them Russians in Lugansk guys or will this be enough. Too bad they didn't send the whole Brigade.

EFT?

External fuel tanks. Not used in combat, only approach marches in real war situation, then removed. So this tank has done an "approach march" and crew forgot to remove them.

Khepesh wrote:External fuel tanks. Not used in combat, only approach marches in real war situation, then removed. So this tank has done an "approach march" and crew forgot to remove them.

I'm sad I can't upvote you anymore man.
But basically, the T72 hasn't painted over the Tactical number and has been going through a patch of road in order to reach the front. These tanks were sitting probably 100 km from their initial insertion point. And were confident enough to get into action "straight away".

Ukrainians hate Russians guts and they will not pay the 3 billion loan.

https://twitter.com/unian/status/758000880218206208

Ukraine and APU: the collapse of the process - no way back. Intimidating the faithful, Kyiv authorities may obtain a religious conflict.

Looking at what is happening in the world, the Middle East, Europe and the borders of Russia, the Ukraine, it seems that humanity is going crazy.

Some people are raving about the "storm of the Russian military" and try to stick to it the opinions of others. In fact, all of these actions and thoughts lead to the rejection of most of the population of rabid nationalist sentiment.

In the two years that have passed since the coup in Ukraine, most of the population is trying to peaceful means to get rid of the idiocy of Russophobia. But militant nationalists still have illusions in the possibility of its military to intimidate the population and continue fighting in Donbas.

All have long understood that the Minsk agreement for Ukraine - a formal commitment. And the help from Western countries, political and military, more and more convinced of this. Even though the UN expressed concern in this regard, Ukrainian punitive continue to violate all the peace agreements. At the same time representatives of the International Organization accused the Ukrainian authorities to the unlawful use of weapons prohibited by the Minsk Agreement.

The situation on the contact line in the Donetsk and Lugansk republics continues to heat up. Ukrainian nationalists nourish the illusory dreams of winning. It's all quite illusory. And to achieve victory in Ukraine there is no chance.

Exhausted two years of armed confrontation between the army is no longer able to wage war. According to reports, the Ukrainian mass media and representatives of DNR and LNR are increasingly began to arise clashes between troops of the APU and volunteer battalions. This confirms once again that the Ukrainian army is increasingly becoming unable to continue the impact of the fighting. According to some residents of the border areas of the Donbas, military hospitals in these regions are filled with soldiers of the Ukrainian army. Even the country's main military prosecutor made statements about the massive, non-combat losses in the ranks of the military. For the most part, it is - everyday drinking, improper handling of weapons and infighting. Indeed, in the ranks of the army and there Turbat its division by regions, which results in constant conflict fatalities. Not relying on the strength of army units, the Ukrainian leadership under the pretext of amnesty to release thousands of criminals who, with arms in their hands, were sent to the Donbass.

Mutual hostility in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine results in the military during the planned replacement of the block on the positions do not leave their mate maps of minefields in its sector of responsibility. At these mines killed soldiers and that whiter sadly - locals.

This army, united with extreme nationalists, turned into a horde of killers and looters. And the Ukrainian authorities hope with this rabble win. Armed criminals and nationalists massively wander around the country, engaging in corporate raids companies selling arms not only domestically, but also enter the international market. According to Western media, the Ukrainian weapons from the zone of conflict is increasingly began to appear in the Islamic State militants in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and other conflicts. And it already puts Ukraine on a par with terrorism, and, in the end, will cause a reaction similar to Syria.

This situation has been made possible as a result of corruption among Ukrainian military and state politicians. The authorities, of course, pretend to fight corruption, but it's all for show. Massive theft products, uniforms and weapons only promotes the decomposition of the so-called nezalezhnoy army. Close to a situation in which the desperate soldiers APU simply raise an armed revolt and turned the weapon against Kiev.

Another example that can cause dissatisfaction of the army, it is an attempt of the authorities to intimidate the residents of the eastern and western regions, which began a peace procession to protest against the war. The desire to intimidate the participants move, incite them nationalists, absolutely stupid and dangerous tactics of influence on the protesters. In Kiev, apparently, forget or do not realize that among the participants of the procession, there are members of military families who are in the forefront in arms. In this situation, no one can guarantee a massive attempt to revenge the nationalists by the military for their loved ones. Such actions contribute to incitement and religious conflict in the country. It will be another occasion for armed confrontation in society.

According to observations of local and foreign political analysts familiar with the situation in the country, even nationalist battalions lose "patriotic and martial ardor." We agree with this conclusion and some members of ATO, expressed the opinion that the armies of the New Russia will soon have to face the bad armed, but practically unfit for action Ukrainian army.

Mood and ordinary citizens of the country have changed. In two of the past year reduced the number of Ukrainians who want the country to join NATO. Now the ratio of supporters and opponents of accession to the military bloc roughly as follows: 35 to 40% - for 25 - 35% - against. On the face of a split society and forcing another confrontation.

Ah, those words to God's ears.

Vasily Prokhorov

Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov admitted a possibility of a military coup in Ukraine. In turn, member of Fatherland Party, Igor Lutsenko, described the scenario of the possible military coup in Ukraine on his Facebook page. According to Lutsenko, who was apparently very much impressed with the coup in Turkey, several armed units already declare their desire to come to power by force. It goes about formally state-controlled, organized and well-trained military groups, rather than extremist organizations, such as the Right Sector (banned in Russia).

Pravda.Ru discussed the possibility of a military coup in Ukraine with leader of the Union of Leftist Forces, former deputy of the Verkhovna Rada and former head of the State Commission of Ukraine for Regulation of Financial Services, Vasily Volga.

"In today's Ukraine, there are all conditions for a military coup. The economic position of the country is terrifying. The pressure of tariffs and taxes is constantly growing. Recent opinion polls showed that 71 percent of Ukrainian residents consider themselves impoverished. This is an amazing figure. Usually, even those whose living standards leave much to be desired rarely recognize themselves as poor people.

"Most Ukrainians are terrified about their future. People do not know what problems they will have to deal with in winter. The socio-economic situation in Ukraine is catastrophic. The situation with the spread of tuberculosis and hepatitis is alarming. The level of legitimacy of the Ukrainian authorities is very low. In a nutshell, everyone hates the government. There is no doubt that the people of Ukraine hate Poroshenko and the sitting government. If a coup occurs, people will not take to the streets to support Poroshenko, as it happened in Turkey, when there were forces that supported President Erdogan. In Ukraine, the people will support those who will organize the coup.

"The constitutional and legal model of the state has been destroyed in Ukraine completely. This background produces radical, well-armed paramilitary formations. The authorities have taken effort to bring them in line with the law, but not with the constitution. In other words, they have simply invented a number of pseudo-laws, but those armed groups still exist as independent military groups that do not subordinate to anyone.

"Azov is the most powerful group that has a political component. Azov has training camps in every region of Ukraine, they constantly recruit new fighters. People receive very good salaries for serving in Azov. Some of them go to the east of Ukraine, where they receive combat training in real combat actions, before they come back.
Ukraine impoverished, elites struggle for more money

"As a result, there are three components for the possible military coup in Ukraine: the socio-economic status, hatred of the government and the existence of combat units that can make the coup happen. If someone tries to change power in Ukraine in an unconstitutional way again, the probability for them to succeed nears 100 percent."

"What would the West do in this case?"

"The West is all about the policy of double standards. The West has lost its way in broad daylight. They do not know what coup shall be called a democratic revolution and what coup shall be viewed as usurpation of power. The West saw the successful coup in Ukraine as the manifestation of people's will. The West also supported the brutal suppression of the attempted coup in Turkey too.

"If the West benefits from another coup in Ukraine, the West will support it again. Even if demons drink blood and put up gallows in Kiev, Western officials will say: look how good they are at what they do, they defend the unity of the nation!

"For two and a half years, Ukraine has been an example of a "democratic state" built as a result of the unconstitutional coup. Instead, there is anarchy, terror and neo-Nazi groups.

"The whole country remains in a terrible situation, but President Poroshenko is building a new biscuit factory in Borispol for 1.8 billion. In Vinnitsa region, he has launched a grain elevator for $80 million. Poroshenko is the only person in Ukraine, who has received the state order for the construction of vessels for the Ukrainian fleet.

"The key problem of today's Ukraine is about clashes within the oligarchic elite. Ukraine has become an oligarchic state. Poroshenko is the main oligarch, but there are other ones, who also show influence on what is happening in Ukraine. They struggle to embezzle the funds that Ukraine receives for the so-called anti-terrorist operation.

"Ukraine has seen coups before. In 2004, Ukraine split into western, eastern and southern territories, but no one paid much attention to it back then. Nowadays, only an ultra-right coup can be possible. If it happens, rivers of blood will flow. Two days ago, I received death threats from a radical group. I was told that I would be hanging on the gallows on Khreshchatyk."

Interviewed by Lyuba Lulko
Pravda.Ru

Resistance wrote:Ukrainians hate Russians guts and they will not pay the 3 billion loan.

https://twitter.com/unian/status/758000880218206208

They will. Maybe not now, but later they will. With more time they will wait with paying, more interests they will have to pay. Nothing personal, just business.

The US drone systems delivered to Ukraine are used to transmit live video images and location data to ground control stations, according to the US embassy in Kiev.

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — The United States has delivered 72 hand launched surveillance drones to Ukraine as part of a larger effort to help the nation enhance its defense capabilities, the US embassy in Kiev said in a press release on Wednesday.

"24 RQ-11B Raven Unmanned Aircraft Systems (comprised of 72 aircraft and associated equipment) arrived at Boryspil International Airport July 27," the release said. The drone systems delivered to Ukraine are used to transmit live video images and location data to ground control stations, the release explained. “This capability can provide day or night aerial intelligence and enables operators to navigate, recognize terrain, and record information for analysis,” the embassy said.

Besides, several dozen Ukrainian soldiers have previously completed training needed to operate the system in the US state of Alabama, the release noted.

The Raven Unmanned Aircraft systems and training is part of a $600-million security assistance package the United States has provided to Ukraine since a civil conflict erupted in the country in 2014.

http://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/rq11braven/

Extract from Fortrus. Full article at link

Earlier, President Poroshenko and other Ukrainian leaders announced that the UAF lacked ammunition. Secretary Turchynov of the National Security and Defense Council also announced the beginning of a program for militarizing Ukrainian industry according to which 800 plants will be refitted to focus on military manufacturing. The program is supposed to be completed by January 2017. Also, on July 25th, reports appeared that a Ukrainian soldier had been killed during exercises in the Wide Lawn arena, the cause of death being the detonation of old ammunition (1960 and 1975 models). I would suggest that the Ukrainian army is testing its old ammunition in anticipation of a large-scale offensive. Seeing as how Ukraine was a genuine warehouse of military equipment and ammunition during Soviet times, the UAF should not feel any lack of the latter. However, the use of such poses a dangerous risk for Ukrainian soldiers themselves.

Shortages in ammunition and old Soviet equipment have been partly offset by Ukraine’s allies, the Eastern European members of NATO, but even their reserves are limited especially considering that a quarter of a century has passed since the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and Eastern Bloc. According to some reports, Ukraine actively used aid from these countries in 2014 - early 2015 but spent more than a little (if not most) of these supplies. The supply of Western military equipment, the quality of which has been tested and “appreciated” by the Donbass militia, is also suffering its own drawbacks and shortages. First of all, Ukrainian soldiers have to be taught how to use such (hence the presence of NATO countries’ instructors in Ukraine and the holding of joint exercises). Secondly, such equipment is expensive, and, thirdly, their technical parameters are incompatible with the Soviet-made equipment used by the UAF. Yet another factor involved is the supply of lethal equipment from NATO countries (which was announced at the alliance's summit in Warsaw) which means complicity in armed conflict and contradicts the Minsk Agreements. Russia can always present this proof of the West’s involvement in the war against Donbass.


Thus, the military exercises at the Wide Lawn arena and the character of ammunition used in them suggest that the UAF is actively preparing for an offensive against the republics of Donbass. Meanwhile, the naval exercises in the Black Sea are in my opinion meant to create a military and political counterbalance to Russian Crimea and, perhaps, pro-Russian Transnistria.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/07/popov-nato-uaf-exercises-and-equipment.html

More at link. Assume he means 'give us money (cash to Cyprus would be a good shortcut) or the war in Donbas is your fault'

It was stated by Roman Bessmertny, a «hawk» politician and the former representative of Poroshenko at the Minsk negotiations, in an interview with the Kiev newspaper «Gordon".

According to Bessmertny, the West is obliged to pay Ukraine and provide for it due to the fact that it is ‘waging a war against Russia’.

‘Naturally, we have a right to expect the whole world, especially Europe and the United States, to help us. To put it simply, it's time we stopped playing games and persuading our opponents and allies, and very clearly told the world, ‘Pay us for the fact that we are at war with Russia! Otherwise, you will get a problem that you won’t be able to handle,’ the politician threatened again the Western countries.

http://dninews.com/article/kiev-bills-west-demanding-payment-war-against-russia

This is rare, Interfax reporting on DNR casualties. But it is almost a reflection of a DNR claim about the same number of UA casualties earlier in the week. Strange.

The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Defense Ministry of Ukraine has said a total of 16 militants were killed and 23 Russian soldiers were wounded in Donbas from July 25 to July 26.

The Ukrainian military intelligence said on its Facebook page that as a result of an ammunition explosion on July 25 a dozen militants were killed and 17 wounded. The militants were from the 11th Independent Motorized Regiment (based in Makiyivka).

On July 26 four more militants were killed and six more (from the same unit) were wounded as a result of artillery fire by Ukrainian government troops involved in the Anti-Terrorist Operation.

The militants were fired on in the area near Avdiyivka. The ninth Independent Marines Motorized Assault Regiment (Novoazovsk), which had fired mortars in the area of Krasnohorivka and Shyrokyne, were also targeted.

Looks like the IMF are really in no hurry at all to give any more money to Kiev. They certainly aren't on the priority list. My highlight

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) executive board will not be able to consider the second review to disburse assistance to Kiev before its recess this week, and will take up the issue after reconvening in mid-August, IMF spokesperson William Murray said in a briefing on Thursday. "We do not expect the Board review before the recess, which is this week," Murray stated. "We expect that Ukraine will be taken up by the Executive Board sometime when the Board reconvenes, but beyond that I do not really have the precise timing for the Board review on the Ukraine program."

The spokesperson noted that review could "possibly" take place in August or September.

In May, the IMF announced it would consider disbursing $1.7 billion in assistance to Ukraine upon successful conclusion of the second review. However, Ukrainian media reported in June that the fund could reduce the next tranche to Kiev to $1 billion.

On March 11, the IMF approved a four-year program of financial aid to Ukraine, which stipulates a $17.5 billion loan over the next four years. The Ukrainian government has to implement new economic policies for the IMF to disburse the funds.