The Situation in the Ukraine. #25

No "super spetsnaz" I only mentioned spetsnaz because the ages are what is expected of guys who have been around for a while, know their job, and might be used for difficult missions. Simply an observation, not any attempt at saying ukrops spetsnaz are involved. But as yet we have no idea who was involved, anybody, and that they still evade capture indicates a certain level of skill, not drunken pravy sektor.

The messages that have been posted have not come from within Perekop isthmus but from people who have moved out of the area in the last day. Cable and mobile networks, even ATMs, had been shut down it seems in the entire isthmus and not even network communication with Krasnoperekopsk. This is not now the case. Nobody suggests a "lockdown", only control of networks and searches around the area of the incident, travel was not blocked. That ukrops troop movements occur all the time is not special of course, but at a time when it was not very clear if something major was happening or not, any movements east, in this case Grad, will be noticed and reported on, it is normal in the circumstances. There is also this to consider, movements from the border or from Kherson heading west are not seen, and they only have a finite amount of equipement, so all movements east should be considered worthy of comment as it means they build up forces, not rotate.

But what you are saying makes 0 sense. Cut network but allow people to move around and post? Yeah, no. As well, there is no media blackout, as media like life news posted about it, and they are apparently notorious for BS. If they want to hide the incident, then they wouldn't allow people from the town to travel freely.

As well, judging by the incident, it happened at the border. Meaning that guys got through cause they may have never entered. These borders are always heavily enforced and plenty of cameras around and enforced by men.

As per the south front article, there is exercises happening by national guard and VDV. Rest sounds like made up bullshit

A group of saboteurs from Ukraine has attempted to break through the Crimean border, Politnavigator reported on August 7, citing local sources. According to the report the group of Ukrainian saboteurs came across the border checkpoint and engaged Russian servicemen in a firefight. According to Politnavigator’s report, one Russian border guard was killed and few others wounded. The Russian Life News TV channel said that one person was killed and three were wounded.

Further reports said that the fighting erupted at a border checkpoint in the Krasnoperekopsk region of the Russian peninsula on August 7 morning.

The enhanced border security was introduced in Crimea.

It’s interesting to note that the incident followed major anti-terrorist exercises of the Russian National Guard and Airborne Troops in the Crimean Peninsula. It allows to conclude that the local authorities realize the high level of terror threat from the Ukrainian direction.

What you did mention that makes sense are smugglers. They are notorious for shooting at soldiers for either diversion or something else. Ukraine is smuggler central.

Firstly, at this time there is still no official news. Ukrops report this story, about the border closed, about the networks going down, about the manhunt taking place, they do not even deny what may have happened, simply report as they see it. But I'm not going to post what they say.

Many many things that happen make no sense, it is how life is. However, I see no reason for a named journalist and author to lie about this, and there were a heap of other people with no public profile posting similar to them. Kalanchak is still closed, why would this be. But what they have said is backed up as Krymtelekom, who control all the hubs for the various mobile and cable companies, admitted the networks were down for a day due to "technical fault", clearly a coincidence that the fault occurs at same area and time as incident......

Fair enough. My suspicion is towards the incident happening at the border crossing and culprits fled back into Ukraine right when things got hairy. Russian authorities are stepping up security by increasing number of national guard units at the border and holding exercises with VDV. They won't find the guys due to being already in Ukraine. But they would have found someone by now with this massive search, and the border was reinforced so they couldn't have gotten back unless they decided to swim.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Eire_QC/status/762978231104528385

Video of equipment headed to Crimea from Krasnodar.

sepheronx wrote:Fair enough. My suspicion is towards the incident happening at the border crossing and culprits fled back into Ukraine right when things got hairy. Russian authorities are stepping up security by increasing number of national guard units at the border and holding exercises with VDV. They won't find the guys due to being already in Ukraine. But they would have found someone by now with this massive search, and the border was reinforced so they couldn't have gotten back unless they decided to swim.

They did get some of them.

Note that there are seven guys mentioned here



And four here in a poster from local officials



There was a shoot-out.
What happened to the other three?

They got them as in killed them but 3 ran off? And how far into the Crimean border they got?

JohninMK wrote:

sepheronx wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/Eire_QC/status/762978231104528385

Video of equipment headed to Crimea from Krasnodar.

Quite a trainload with many passenger carriages. I counted 35 tracked vehicles of various kinds. No tanks but plenty of trucks. Presumably a whole unit, perhaps replacing another already there.

Complete infantry battalion, not rotation but re-enforcement.

As a result of the emergency meeting held yesterday by Zakharchenko, he has stopped all ministers, department heads and people responsible for energy security from taking vacation. He has also issued orders to reinforce the curfew and said that today the situation at the front has escalted to the limit.

Apparently it isn't just the heads of Ukraine that are unpopular. Even the leaders of DNR and LNR are becoming unpopular due to them sitting on their asses. Yes, they do counter strikes, but essentially the population is tired about lack of direct war for retribution from all the shillings the PUkrainians commit and get away with in international scene as well as the useless idiots from OSCE.

sepheronx wrote:Apparently it isn't just the heads of Ukraine that are unpopular. Even the leaders of DNR and LNR are becoming unpopular due to them sitting on their asses. Yes, they do counter strikes, but essentially the population is tired about lack of direct war for retribution from all the shillings the PUkrainians commit and get away with in international scene as well as the useless idiots from OSCE.

Blame Putin and the Russian government for that. They do not want to fight.

No, not just Putin. If they want to fight, they would. Just means they may not get all the support from Russia.

But yes, they are also to blame and eventually their support will drop significantly since majority of Russians support Novorussia. But he is more or less planning after duma elections.

Yes, the clans are gathering. It is common knowledge that leaves are canceled. Our daughter was on her way to see her sisters when she was told to return. Our son didn't bother to put in for leave.

As an aside, today we took the day off and we drove up to the 'mountains' on the south coast, specifically the area of the reservoir and then to Shalash Restaurant at Baidar Gate at the top of a pass, below which is Church of Foros on a granite outcrop. Beautiful weather, beautiful country, excellent late lunch at Shalash and then to Church of Foros where we were married eleven years ago. Veritable hordes of tourists at both Church and restaurant. Have I ever mentioned how much we detest the tourists?

Got back on the H19 to head for home and what a change in five hours. Police everywhere and vehicles that were being stopped, not many, the crushers had Golden Eagle backup for the stop and no one was playing games, the stops were pretty intense from what we could see. Within five klicks of Yalta Ring not a crusher to be seen and from Ring to the family schloss nothing but normal, read quite rare, GAIshniki, the road crushers. Not a squeak so far on the media.

sepheronx wrote:No, not just Putin. If they want to fight, they would. Just means they may not get all the support from Russia.

In that case, there is a good chance that they might lose.

sepheronx wrote:But yes, they are also to blame and eventually their support will drop significantly since majority of Russians support Novorussia. But he is more or less planning after duma elections.

How do the majority of Russians support Novorussia?
Is there a majority to split it from Ukraine?

DONBASS: NEITHER WAR, NOR PEACE, BUT HUMANITARIAN CONVOYS

Russians are divided in their opinions on what position toward Ukraine Russian authorities should take, however favorable attitudes towards Ukraine and desire to help prevail over the willingness of Russians to cut themselves off from the problems that the Donbass inhabitants are facing today. Twenty-three percent of respondents think it is necessary to help residents of DPR and LPR get autonomous status as a part of Ukraine; 22% consider that LPR and DPR should be recognized as sovereign states. Every fifth (21%) supports the idea to incorporate these republics into Russia’s territory. And finally, 17% opt for non-intervention and cutting relations with the LPR and DPR governments.

As you can see there is no clear majority for the separation of Donbass/Novorussia from Ukraine

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

sepheronx wrote:No, not just Putin. If they want to fight, they would. Just means they may not get all the support from Russia.

In that case, there is a good chance that they might lose.

sepheronx wrote:But yes, they are also to blame and eventually their support will drop significantly since majority of Russians support Novorussia. But he is more or less planning after duma elections.

How do the majority of Russians support Novorussia?
Is there a majority to split it from Ukraine?

That part is the interesting one. Many support Novorussia in sense of being independent but split on idea if it is either separate country or a republic in Ukraine.

Rozhin has written about what happened at Perekop, and still happens as four men are still searched for. http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2890567.html
If his info is correct, then this is extraordinary and bigger than suspected. FSB get info on explosives cach near Armyansk. Find group of twenty men moving the explosives, and these men immediately open fire on FSB killing one. FSB call for military reinforcements and say the enemy are acting competently. During the fight a group of 14 or 15 moved to the sea, dragging one dead and an unknown number of wounded. A ukrops BTR appeared from the sea to give support. Our forces suffered another dead and one wounded and search continues for four enemy. [presumably the others were evacuated on the BTR]. 500kg of explosives were discovered at the cache. If only half of this is true it is still almost unbelievable, almost like some film. But still waiting for this to be officially confirmed. Likley the news blackout is about not giving info to the enemy about exactly what happens, which makes sense.

That explains then the heavy reinforcements from Russia. Could possibly lead up to a war.

Where I said sea I mean the Sivash on eastern side of Perekop. The border is very close there and on water. When the war has come and gone, the precise details of this operation will make very interesting reading.

"DONBASS: NEITHER WAR, NOR PEACE, BUT HUMANITARIAN CONVOYS

Russians are divided in their opinions on what position toward Ukraine Russian authorities should take, however favorable attitudes towards Ukraine and desire to help prevail over the willingness of Russians to cut themselves off from the problems that the Donbass inhabitants are facing today. Twenty-three percent of respondents think it is necessary to help residents of DPR and LPR get autonomous status as a part of Ukraine; 22% consider that LPR and DPR should be recognized as sovereign states. Every fifth (21%) supports the idea to incorporate these republics into Russia’s territory. And finally, 17% opt for non-intervention and cutting relations with the LPR and DPR governments.

As you can see there is no clear majority for the separation of Donbass/Novorussia from Ukraine"

Oh goody. A 'survey' that interviewed, by their counting, 1600 Russians and that is a basis for a conclusion? 1600 out of roughly 145 million? Get real.

sepheronx wrote:That explains then the heavy reinforcements from Russia. Could possibly lead up to a war.

IMO, I doubt Rozhin would have said anything unless he was very sure his info was correct, therefore this was a deliberate armed incursion into territory of RF, and a de facto act of war by Kiev. It is not surprising that official news is non existant as the timing may be inconvenient for war at this moment, like urgent newsflashes on 24, NTV, Lifenews etc of ukrops "invasion" within short time of this happening not being needed, and info a few days later having lost the urgency and heat.

The time is perfect for Russia. But lets wait and see. Right now, a large convoy of Russians are headed to the border and an increase of the national guard and brb doing "exercises" in Crimea.

I would love to see a massive buildup of national guard in Crimea. Although, they don't get the systems needed to fend off an invasion. But against Ukraine, they don't need much.

auslander wrote:"DONBASS: NEITHER WAR, NOR PEACE, BUT HUMANITARIAN CONVOYS

Russians are divided in their opinions on what position toward Ukraine Russian authorities should take, however favorable attitudes towards Ukraine and desire to help prevail over the willingness of Russians to cut themselves off from the problems that the Donbass inhabitants are facing today. Twenty-three percent of respondents think it is necessary to help residents of DPR and LPR get autonomous status as a part of Ukraine; 22% consider that LPR and DPR should be recognized as sovereign states. Every fifth (21%) supports the idea to incorporate these republics into Russia’s territory. And finally, 17% opt for non-intervention and cutting relations with the LPR and DPR governments.

As you can see there is no clear majority for the separation of Donbass/Novorussia from Ukraine"

Oh goody. A 'survey' that interviewed, by their counting, 1600 Russians and that is a basis for a conclusion? 1600 out of roughly 145 million? Get real.

That is how surveys works, ausländer.