The Situation in the Ukraine. #25

JohninMK wrote:

The Dutch-led Joint Investigative Team's new report on the 2014 Malaysia Airlines MH17 disaster is full of "troubling gaps", according to American investigative journalist Robert Parry.

In an exclusive report published by the website consortiumnews.com, American investigative journalist Robert Parry says that the Dutch-led Joint Investigative Team (JIT)'s new report on the details of the 2014 Malaysia Airlines MH17 plane crash is full of "troubling gaps".

Read lots more: https://sputniknews.com/world/20161001/1045898821/russia-ukraine-plane-crash-investigation.html

This quote from the article is what Bezler has already said, that the conversation was not about BUK, but Strela-10. But any evidence from Bezler, Strelkov or the militia commander at Snezhnoe will not be heard....

According to him, as evidence that the Buk missile system was brought into Ukraine from Russia, the JIT cites "one phone intercept, which – according to the JIT's translation – does not use the word Buk though referencing a piece of equipment that can move on its own or be transported by truck.

This is speculation, and probably wild speculation. Anyway, a scenario may occur where Strelkov, who has made many enemies and, with K25, is seen by some as a nuisance and disruptive element, could become the new Abdelbaset al-Megrahi. I very much doubt this will happen, not least because I cannot see any possibility of Strelkov being extradited from Russia into hands of Washington, it would be politically extremely damaging, but we live in strange times and sometimes the unthinkable maybe turn out to happen, "unknown unknowns"...

One of the major videos used as "evidence", that of BUK filmed travelling thru Zugres, has been exposed as having been filmed on July 5 2014, by the man who actually filmed it.


Andrei Purgin has commented about MH17. Most of what he says is not new and is really generalities about intent and needing to prove malicious intent etc, but he makes the important point, and one that we know but seems never to get properly mentioned, is that at time of MH17, militia could control urban areas, to a greater or lesser extent, but could not and did not control rural areas and roads as there were too few of them. He points out that militia could control a town or village, but ukrops be moving around it with impunity. Here I will add that while the maps of "Kot Ivanov" were helpfull, they were, as I am sure we all know, only very vaguely accurate and gave a false impression on what areas were controlled by militias, partly I think due for morale reasons as accurate map, if such was really possible, would have been rather depressing. A pity that the ukrops operational map captured by militia and presented by Basurin last year has not been used to contradict the "investigators", why not? It is also a pity that there is as yet no concerted official effort, in LDNR or Russia to pull all this info together and start making a coherent case to demolish the obvious nonsense from Bellingcat and the "investigators". To deal with the the issue of what took down MH17 and from where is of course important, but to leave all the other aspects out is a mistake, IMO.

Basurin had earlier stated that if ukrops did not pull back from Petrovskoe by 16:00 then VSN will move back to their positions on front line. ukrops have not pulled back, so as it is gone the deadline presumably VSN move back to frontline. "Ceasefire" pffft

Edit: At 16:00 ukrops began firing into the village from Viktorovka, 2km west of Petrovskoe, and from which they should have withdrawn from and is in the "neutralzone" http://rusvesna.su/news/1475510786
ukrops also report fighting in that area, but claim they are attacked.

And so it all moves forward. The Americans now announce stopping all cooperation with Russia in Syria, and this "ceasefire" in Donbass collapsing. No prediction, but I will not be surprised if by this or the following weekend we are back to the "normal" nightime concerts, and playing as loudly as ever.

Similar situation in LNR at Stanitsa Luganskaya. ukrops did not pull back there, and while they should have completed withdrawl by 11:00 this morning, and Kiev representatives saying they will withdraw, they instead began firing towards LNR positions. It could be argued that Kiev has lost full control of some of it's units, but I have never believed that, and the reports in recent days of them pouring even more forces into that area, including Smerch, indicate they have full control.

Can someone comment on the economy of Ukraine? Have they stabilized?

Hannibal Barca wrote:Can someone comment on the economy of Ukraine? Have they stabilized?

Stabilised in the sense that instead of going up occasionally on their way down, against virtually all measures apart from debt, they are now going steadily down.

It is very sad that a potentially prosperous country like that is driven into the ground by rapacious leadership, both political and commercial.

Two interesting, but unofficial polls, asking if elections were held for head of LNR and DNR next Sunday, who would you vote for. The voting is still open so the results I wrote down will change, but I think in LNR Plotnitsky has sunk.

For LNR https://vk.com/id143259979?w=poll143259979_22604
Strelkov  49.2%
Bolotov  20%
Plotnitsky   3.9%
None of the above 26.9%

For DNR  https://vk.com/id143259979?w=poll143259979_22607
Strelkov   47.2%
Zakharchenko  31.2%
None of the above 21.6%

If a real election were held, Strelkov would not be a candidate, but on these two polls, which in actual election the "none of the above" votes would not count, Strelkov would win more than 50% of valid votes in DNR and LNR.

Interfax - 13:27 Some 14,000 people to be conscripted in Ukraine.

franco wrote:Interfax - 13:27 Some 14,000 people to be conscripted in Ukraine.

More like Kiev Junta will drive 14000 more people out of the country. No one worth a squirt of piss will head to the front lines to fight and die for Porkychenko. The only idiots fighting for Porky are Azov zealots and criminals. I don't like the idea that impressionable young men will be forced into a meat grinder just to satisfy the political lap dogs in Kiev. Who serve other masters anyway.

franco wrote:Interfax - 13:27 Some 14,000 people to be conscripted in Ukraine.

Thanks for sharing that. I just went through my previous analysis and I had estimated Ukrainian casualties in January-August to be around 15,000.

Today Basurin reported stated that the ukranian army has to discharge the 6th mobilization recruits, that's 30,000 men to be taken out the front in October.

I highly doubt they can cover the non recoverable losses (5,000 dead plus maybe 2,000 wounded unfit for duty) and the discharges with voluntary enlistments.

The conclusion is that Ukrainian army can't keep its force levels. For over a year the reports stress Ukrainian units are short of personnel. The margin of numerical superiority keeps eroding.

It's funny. I thought they would run out sooner of war materiel than of cannon fodder.

Seems Kherson oblast is about to be declared part of ATO zone. Large military exercises have just finished and the formations involved are staying. These are forces from Galicia, not local or even from places like Chernigov. These forces are substantial and include heavy artillery brigades, 5th Tank brigade and 15th OMB reformed entirely from combat veterans, not conscripts. Locals in the Kherson area report the large number of Galicians as becoming very obvious, and that they keep to themselves. Also OTG South has been dramatically reenforced with large amounts of men and equipment moving to Melitipol and Mariupol. All these troop movements are on a scale way beyond Basurin's battery of D-20 here or a few tanks there, and it starts to seem that with the exception of Kiev forces in Transcarpathia, they are now moving most of their forces to ATO zone, and increasing the zone, probably early next week.

Interesting video about the burned field said to be from where BUK fired at MH17. Author shows it was burned on July 21 and that cause of burning was due to launch of ukrops Tochka

Khepesh wrote:Seems Kherson oblast is about to be declared part of ATO zone. Large military exercises have just finished and the formations involved are staying. These are forces from Galicia, not local or even from places like Chernigov. These forces are substantial and include heavy artillery brigades, 5th Tank brigade and 15th OMB reformed entirely from combat veterans, not conscripts. Locals in the Kherson area report the large number of Galicians as becoming very obvious, and that they keep to themselves. Also OTG South has been dramatically reenforced with large amounts of men and equipment moving to Melitipol and Mariupol. All these troop movements are on a scale way beyond Basurin's battery of D-20 here or a few tanks there, and it starts to seem that with the exception of Kiev forces in Transcarpathia, they are now moving most of their forces to ATO zone, and increasing the zone, probably early next week.

Thanks for the effort in keeping us informed. Please keep it up, as I barely can understand something from google translation of Cassad and Chervonec. I passed this with my comments to the community in the Spanish forum.


My take is that Kiev is planning a major attack and time is running out before US elections come. If they come this year, they will have to do it before the end of October. Everything is ready, so my interpretation of this is tha they are making a powerful group of forces made up of veterans and reliable recruits from Western Ukraine, to either defend against a possible Russian thrust from Crimea in case of renewed hostilities, or to react to a Novorussian breakthrough of the front in the south , or more likely, given the movements towards Mariupol, to ready their own offensive in the southern sector, between Doentsk and Mariupol, most dangerous and probable possibility.


I was despairing when this september there was yet another truce instead of all out war. But I am more confident now since the war goes on as usual, fighting has dropped down to the average levels, but it's not a ceasefire at all. It does worry me Nuland visit to Moscow and the assholes in Moscow repeating the obscenity about Donbass returning to Ukraine. I hope this is only a tactical ploy to win time, just as the Syria negotations with the US. I hope Putin has learned for the final time that you can't do deals with the Americans.

Don't think there will be peace. War will go on throughout the winter, and there will come a decision come spring next year. I think after primaries will come elections in Donbass and the Minsk farce will be dropped.

What ceasefire? And they are talking about "disengagement" of forces starting tomorrow

Fighting still continuing at Kominternovo, about 8 hours so far, and ukrops shelling nearby villages and Sakhanka, which has cut electricity cables. Basurin states ukrops are using mortars and 122 and 152mm artillery. One civilian know to be dead, and unoficially, several VSN. Probably yet another attempt to replicate the situation at Shirokino and force civilian population out and then keep pushing and hope that VSN withdraw, as what happened at Shirokino. Shelling also at Petrovsky district and near Gorlovka. Electricity cut in parts of Petrovsky.

Edit: Basurin confirmed two members of VSN killed, but more than 15 mercenaries from Poland and Georgia fighting for Kiev were killed and 25 wounded. Locals report within last fifteen minutes that both sides are still engaged in heavy artillery duel.

Ive been wondering - what has been doing the majority of the killing in this war of the t-64s? This is also the first war T64 have fought in, how has their performance been so far compared to other tanks like t55,t62,t72 that have much more fleshed out combat records?

H.E.A.T rounds from RPG, ATGM and other tanks to the sides of turret and hull. T-64 has done badly due to original design flaw in placing propellant charges vertically instead of horizontally in the carousel. It has been found that some have suffered from bad welding during manufacture, and others victims of strange manufacture of glacis, because it can be seen on those T-64 ripped apart by internal explosion that some are missing the middle layer of steel on the glacis. It should be steel-textolite-steel-textolite-steel as seen in this photo.


But some, such as this, have only steel-textolite-textolite-textolite-steel. Why this is so is not clear. It is suggested to be due to corruption and the steel meant for the glacis stolen, or massive stupidity. The design plans do not specify any deviation from three layers of steel in any circumstances.


Another factor is inexperience of crews in warfare. Anybody can look cool driving tank around training area, but to know how to use your tank properly, knowing how to use the ground to your tactical advantage and protection, of situational awareness of where your other tanks are and where the enemies are, all this takes a lot of training in peacetime, and if it is not already at a good level when war occurs, then you learn fast or die. I already mentioned that militia did far better than ukrops with T-64 due to many crews being grandads, and they had not forgotten old skills, and while not having gone to war in T-64, a good number had seen war as they were Afgantsy, they knew when to keep head down and not behave like idiots in Hollywood movie. ukrops crews were mostly conscripts who had been taught only the basics of using the tank, and knew nothing of how to live in the field and lived in filth and without the most basic protection, as we saw. Also it must be remembered that T-64 is 50 years old and facing weapons that have moved on in capability, even Bulat is crap compared to later tanks such as T-72 which are themselves old. Some of T-64 used in Donbass have been T-64A which should have been scrapped long ago.

Juberg is considered to be SBU agent and article only for Kiev consumption. Anybody serious would realise that if only half of Russian strategic warheads hit target, then America would have been hit by perhaps 1,800. Perhaps Americans think they can survive "only" that amount.

However, there certainly is an issue about so many people, politicians, media talking about possibility of WWIII, which will become nuclear exchange very quickly. Life shows that this type of talk can become self fullfilling and they talk themselves into actually doing something. Red faced American generals screaming about "Hurting people as they have never been hurt before", is straight from Dr Strangelove and shows Washington is extremely unstable and collectively phsychotic. A bit tinfoil hat, but with such low grade presidential candidates, perhaps time to think of military coup in America occuring, then the missiles will fly....

About the attack on Kominternovo, I am not a professional military, so I am not really qualified to give judgement, but by the reports from "Mage" and looking at the map it seems that it was not just another skirmish, but a rather serious attack, though local in nature and is being played down.

Artillery and mortar preparation, several  attacks of at least a company sized group of mercenaries supported by some armored vehicles and lasting hours, attack carried out with resolve, juding by the 40 enemy casualties (one third dead) the novorussians report, wich in all past experience seem reasonable though own casualties are minimized and I expect them to be a third of the attackers... so all things considered, it looks like a reasonable well carried out attack following standard tactics and attempting to take ground or at least test the local defenses. "Mage" says it's the kind of attacks they expected during the summer, not the senseless skirmishing by small squads carried out by the ukropithecus during months.

In a nutshell, what I expect a infantry attack to be according to regulations and history book examples. Only thing missing is tanks in support. It shows that the mercenaries are better trained and willing to fight, though the high losses surprise me, unless the attack was much larger, in battallion strength and in relative comparison casualties are low, I don't think mercs are willing to take losses and is strange that they would obey orders to be used as line infantry.  Raiding is more suited for them. The only other explanation I can think of is that the big casualties were caused not because determination of the attackers, but them, as usual, being hammered by Novorussian artillery. That would also explain the intense artillery duels throughout the day, and ongoing until the night, well after infantry fighting had subsided.