Kimppis wrote:
So the conclusion is that S-400 (and Russian IADS as a whole) can realistically be used to create a no fly zone in Russia's neighbours - no aircraft needed? Against Finland, Baltic Countries, (and parts of) Poland and so on.
Correct...
Russia can create no fly zones not only in baltic states and Poland using Kaliningrad , but also a no fly zone in all Ukraine airspace too.. This is why NATO will never dare to use force against Russia ,aside of their nuclear weapons.
But those capabilities already existed with the S-200V4 that had 400km range too.. S-400 increase the resistance
to jamming and have an auto targeting warhead.. so called active homing. are also much faster. So Russia can ground any NATO offensive against Russia..literary shot down planes withing 5 minutes they take off from their military airports.
However there is something call Geography limitations.. the earth is not flat as you know.. is round.. so every 50km
the earth curve . So in essense it could be possible beyond lets say 50km to 100km to hug terrain for special planes with the right technology to fly very low and hide from any radar under the earth curvature. This is why airforce is also needed to patrol borders to scan low flying objects or planes . Also why big Radars need to be elevated high from terrain.. to try to cover beyond 100km anything flying as low as 50meters from floor.. For planes flying at normal altitudes 1,000m to up.. planes can be shot down at 400km away. There is also Mountains that planes can use to hide from radars.. so geography is important.. fortunately for Russia , they are a very flat terrain at least in northern Russia..
This is the limitation of any system of defense..
This is why radars needs to be elevated and Airforce is needed too.. to improve the visibility of any radar by scanning things that hide under the curvature of earth or beyond mountains but also to scan advancing armies with tanks and their positions... Cruise missiles lethality is that ,that they can fly low..and usually not detected until they are 50km near the target. with the help of satellites it is possible
to detect when a cruise missile was launched however.. but that depends on positioning of the satellite too .
Awacs and helicopters can expand the view beyond the horizon about low flying objects..and improve the view of your airspace from low to high altitude.
The biggest challenge of any defense system S-400s or patriots will be always Decoys . you can launch hundreds of decoys to saturate the defenses of any country.. Why earth defenses alone is not enough. but humans in planes are also need to diferentiate real targets vs fake ones.
So yes Russia can create no fly zones in all border nations in Europe.. Baltics ,finland ,ukraine and 1/3 of germany airspace too i think.. or half.. by moving S-400s to kaliningrad. but they need help from planes or awacs to fully scan all altitudes.. beyond horizon..This is why Israel opposed Syria S-300s.. because it can shoot down any plane in half of Israel aispace. Including targeting Netanyahu plane.