Russian Nuclear Submarine Force: Discussion

@Podlodka77

If submarines continue to be placed in the shipyard once those that have already been built are delivered, the two additional planned Yasen's should be delivered in 2030 without problems
I see no problems with Yasen's being delivered in 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030 , which would give a total of 10 SSGN 885/885M in addition to Ulyanovsk 09853
In the last revision of Navy Korabel it also indicates so



Nor do I see any problems with another two 885M being ordered (in 2023 or 2025) to deliver in 2031 and 2032, thus totaling 12 Yasen´s

Also a second 09853 should be contracted, for a total of 4 Poseidon complex
However, I would transform the Severodvinsk 885 into 09853 and hire another 885M instead, in order to have a homogeneous fleet of 12
885M

Another option is to transform the Severodvinsk into a substitute for the Delta IV BS-64.

The nuclar submarine force shuld have at least 12 Boreis 12 Yasen and 12-16 new SSN´s. apart from at least 4 Poseidon-carrying submarines

The modernization of several 971M and 949AM ships in this decade of 2020's, is necessary to extend the life of these submarines until 2035-2040 and fill the gap waiting for the new SSN's that will not begin to arrive until early of the 2030's
In another case, in 2030 there would only be 12 Boreis and 10 Yasen and no other nuclear submarines available.

By the way, do you know what kind of submarine hull the pr.09851 Khabarovsk is?
According to the Russian Wikipedia it is 113 meters long (similar to an Akula) but it does not seem very credible to me, since the keel of the ship was laid in 2014, it seems to me that it should be more of a Yasen hull


@Arrow

I think Ulyanovsk is the 885M project. As for the 09853 project, the keel laying of this submarine took place without ceremony and it has a different name. The 09853 project itself is unofficially based on the 955A project. Like the 09851, it is based on the 955. These are scaled down versions of the SSBN. The project 09851/09853 itself is highly classified due to the Poseidon project, which will be a completely new system of strategic deterrence of Russia.

I don't see a need to base a 09851/09853 on a 955/955A since you don't need the rear hump at all for SBLMs

If you look at the names of the submarines:
949A names of SIberian cities such as Irkutsk and Chelyabinsk in the Pacific Fleet and European Russian cities such as Smolensk and Orel in the Northern Fleet (there is an exception with Tver former ex-Vilyuchinsk)
09852 based on 949A: European Russian city of Belgorod (Northern fleet)
09851 Russian Siberian city of Khabarovsk for the Pacific Fleet
09853 European Russian city Ulyanovsk for the Northern Fleet

The 955/955A submarines have names of Princes and Generals, so I am inclined to think that the 09851/09853 are based on 885M

To AMCXXL

As for the lists published by Navykorabel.ru, they are sometimes correct, but the forecasts with the project such as the laying of the keels for the 545A (there are no announcements about the construction of a new project yet) do not go well, as in some cases the deadlines for the laying of the keels and introduction into active service are postponed.

I am of the opinion that these 10 submarines under construction at Sevmash will be delivered by the end of this decade. It is not a problem in Sevmash, but the problem could be if the Russian MOD diverted money to other projects because of SMO. Sevmash has the capacity to build and deliver at least 17 submarines during this decade, and if the same number is built in the next decade - the submarine fleet has been renewed.
Another 4 submarines were built in the last decade, of course.


Obviously we have the same opinion on the number of SSN/SSGN submarines, that is at least 24 submarines or 4 divisions with 6 submarines each..although all modern submarines are in fact SSGN,

As for "Khabarovsk", there are only guesses and assumptions that the hull of the submarine is modeled after the Borei-A, although these are all just guesses.
"The design is presumably a classic two-hull design using the solutions worked out on Borey-A project boats - the design of the retractable devices fencing, controls in the tail section of the boat, and hull structural elements."



http://militaryrussia.ru/blog/topic-812.html

@Podlodka77

Obviously we have the same opinion on the number of SSN/SSGN submarines, that is at least 24 submarines or 4 divisions with 6 submarines each..although all modern submarines are in fact SSGN,

Well the number of submarines is one thing and the distribution is another. The Northern Fleet has always been more numerous since it needs to cover both the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic.
At the moment, only 5 Boreys and 5 Yasen are planned for the Pacific fleet according to the statements of the head of that fleet.

Taking into account that both the Delta IV and the Typhoon were initially projected in divisions of 7, I would not be surprised if there were 7 Boreys and 7 Yasen in the Northern Fleet and 5 Boreys and 5 Yasen in the Pacific Fleet.

In addition, there should also be more SSN in the North, about 10-12, compared to 6 in the Pacific

As for "Khabarovsk", there are only guesses and assumptions that the hull of the submarine is modeled after the Borei-A, although these are all just guesses.
"The design is presumably a classic two-hull design using the solutions worked out on Borey-A project boats - the design of the retractable devices fencing, controls in the tail section of the boat, and hull structural elements."

I don't see the need to copy the design of the Borey which has a long back to carry the SBLM, unlike the BS-64 which has to carry satellite submarines and that's why it was made from a Delta IV
Another thing is that some section of a Borei has been used, sections of Akulas Kuguar and Rys were also used for the 955 Nevsky and Dolgoruky

If I was the Russian state I would curtail spending on the Poseidon missile carriers. After these two are built I would just freeze Poseidon and focus on increasing the number of attack submarines.

Post  AMCXXL

The number of SSN/SSGN submarines will further decrease in the future, only to increase again later.
The most ideal variant is with 10 submarines that would replace the 971/945A in the NF (there are currently 10 of them), as well as 6 such submarines in the PF. Only 4 SSN submarines are in PF, including K-44 Ryazan.
The number of Yasen-M submarines can be 9, if we include the two planned submarines and exclude the K-560 Severodvinsk.
Don't forget that out of 10 currently active SSGN submarines 949A and 885/885M, even 6 are on the PF.
And the next K-571 "Krasnoyarsk" goes to PF.

There is no reason to panic because the number of operational submarines will still be increased by the modernization of a certain number of 971 and 949A submarines. What I believe will happen is that the two 945A submarines will also remain in service for a long time - titanium.
We should not forget that the three Los Angeles submarines were in service for over 40 years, that is;
1. SSN-698 "Bremerton", in service from 28.03.1981 to 21.05.2021 or 40 years, 1 month and 23 days
2. SSN-699 "Jacksonville" was in service from 16.05.1981 to 16.11.2021 or 40 years and 6 months
3. SSN-711 "San Francisco" was in service from 24.04.1981 to 05.05.2022 or 41 years and 21 days

So if we also go for 40 to 41 years to be the limit, this again means that almost all 971 submarines can serve for another 10 years.
Those that became operational in 1995 (Samara and Vepr) can serve without problems until 2035.
Although I think that the upper limit with serious modernization may be 45 years which will apply to 949AM and 971M submarines.

I do wonder if they could not run the submarines for 60 years. If the limitation is the nuclear reactor lifetime, with thermal annealing, it might be possible to make them last longer. This technique is used in civilian nuclear reactors. You basically heat up the metal parts of the reactor and this smooths out any micro-cracks it might have.
https://material-properties.org/what-is-thermal-annealing-definition/

Comparing 688 with 971 is like comparing a Skoda with Mercedes.
688 was designed to be built fast & cheap (ha ha ha) in order to face the increasing numerical disparity with the Soviet submarine fleet.
If that thing serves for 40 years, it would mean the 971 can stay in line for much longer - there is much bigger space for modernizatons&improvement, and the whole design is uncompromised.
That is why all the Soviet legacy subs of that generation should be refurbished&modernized to match the existing standards.
945 type subs were unmatched when it comes to the number of ordnance it carried. 945A was capable to carry almost 50 torpedos&missiles, a number that only Seawolf was capable of a decade later.
The very same applies to the 971 - it carried 40 torpedos/missiles, while the 688 - 26.
To catch the Soviet standard, Muricans had to put VLS on subs, as there was no other space for weapon storage.
A funny thing is, that the whole story about supreme US made submarines are just the same propaganda crap as any other, and we can see it clearly now. With US/NATO standard artillery that can't match the Soviet standards of the usage intensity and just brakes.
Soviet subs were faster, dived deeper, carried more ordnance, and - what is already hilarious - were manned by the crews being a factor of US ones.
That is some sick joke, if we consider that Soviet 971 sub has 50 (FIFTY) men crew, while the equivalent 688 almost TRIPLE that to carry the very same set of missions&tasks. That is the real indicator of the technological level, automatization and advancement.
And a bloody Seawolf is not different, with 130 or so people on board.
The very same applies to 705 type, a Ferrari among the submarines. A whole crew would fit into US sub kitchen ...
All the propaganda spin was made based on some bullshit nobody can prove in reality, like "lagging behind Soviet electronics" and "low quality of sonar" fairy tales. I have watched an interview with an ex-US submariner, who was yapping about substandard Soviet safety procedures, because ... he has visited a Soviet monument submarine and recognized that the seal locks are painted with the paint that makes them impossible to seal. Geee you genie, in a monument that was preserved for tourists? Really? Now I am impressed with your superb analytical skills!

@Podlodka77

The number of SSN/SSGN submarines will further decrease in the future, only to increase again later.
The most ideal variant is with 10 submarines that would replace the 971/945A in the NF (there are currently 10 of them), as well as 6 such submarines in the PF. Only 4 SSN submarines are in PF, including K-44 Ryazan.
The number of Yasen-M submarines can be 9, if we include the two planned submarines and exclude the K-560 Severodvinsk.
Don't forget that out of 10 currently active SSGN submarines 949A and 885/885M, even 6 are on the PF.
And the next K-571 "Krasnoyarsk" goes to PF.

The number of submarines is already low enough, this minimum number was set at 12 SSBNs and 20 SSN/SSGNs by the Russian Navy General Staff two decades ago, which is why submarines such as the 2 Sierra II or the 2 Victor III, to reach the number and reduce the use of Akulas so that they can be more years in service

By 2030 in the Pacific Fleet there will be 5 Yasen and 6 other modernized submarines (2 949AM, 4 971´s). Since there are not enough Akulas in the Pacific I suppose that is why they have thought about modernizing 2 949AM
It is also not known what happened to the K-152 Nerpa after it was returned to India.

During this decade some additional 971 submarines of the Northern Fleet will be modernized so that they can reach at least 2040 and fill the gap until new SSN´s

Post  ALAMO

Greetings bro...
I agree with you about the 971 submarines being technologically ahead of the Los Angeles class, especially since the first submarine, the K-284 Akula, became operational a full 10 years after the SSN-688 Los Angeles submarine.
Submarines 671RTMK are the first submarines with the name "Schchuka/Pike in english" (NATO; Victor III, which entered service in 1979), while project 971 also received the suffix B, that is, Schchuka-B.
The last produced "Schchuka" entered service in 1992.
However, it is not clear to me why some forget about the 945A (Sierra II) submarines, which you also mentioned, because those submarines entered service only in the early nineties. This means that they are newer than project 971 and the only real "flaw" of those submarines is actually just the cost of construction. It is my opinion that the B-534 Nizhny Novgorod and B-336 Pskov will remain in service for many more years.

@Podlodka77

However, it is not clear to me why some forget about the 945A (Sierra II) submarines, which you also mentioned, because those submarines entered service only in the early nineties. This means that they are newer than project 971 and the only real "flaw" of those submarines is actually just the cost of construction. It is my opinion that the B-534 Nizhny Novgorod and B-336 Pskov will remain in service for many more years.

Actually the B-534 is the oldest SSN in service after decommissioning the Bratsk
I don't know, it depends on how many miles these submarines have done in service compared to the Akulas, their modernization was not considered
I think they will be decommisioned before the Akulas
Actually, I think that the 945A, like the 671RTKM, are only maintained to get a sufficient number of submarines in service and use the Akula less so that they last longer.


About K-152 Nerpa , deepstorm.ru says Russian goverment refused to extend the hire period of the submarine with the Indian government.
That is why I believe that the Bratsk was decommissioned and the Pacific Fleet will have 4 Akulas when the repairs are completed:

K-331 (ex-Magadan), Kuzbass, Samara and Nerpa

https://www-deepstorm-ru.translate.goog/DeepStorm.files/45-92/nts/971/K-152/K-152.htm?_x_tr_sch=http&_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=es&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Post Podlodka77 Yesterday at 6:08 pm
Greetings bro... Very Happy
I agree with you about the 971 submarines being technologically ahead of the Los Angeles class, especially since the first submarine, the K-284 Akula, became operational a full 10 years after the SSN-688 Los Angeles submarine.
Submarines 671RTMK are the first submarines with the name "Schchuka/Pike in english" (NATO; Victor III, which entered service in 1979), while project 971 also received the suffix B, that is, Schchuka-B.
The last produced "Schchuka" entered service in 1992.
However, it is not clear to me why some forget about the 945A (Sierra II) submarines, which you also mentioned, because those submarines entered service only in the early nineties. This means that they are newer than project 971 and the only real "flaw" of those submarines is actually just the cost of construction. It is my opinion that the B-534 Nizhny Novgorod and B-336 Pskov will remain in service for many more years.

Good morning bro
671RTM and RTMK are the Soviet equivalents to 688 in a full spectrum, including the concept of it's mass production.
It carried the same number of full size ordnance, yet had a 30% smaller crew. Not to mention the construction features like double hull design or quiet electric propellers.
Sure the 971 jumped above that.

Changes compared to the text I wrote a month and a half ago are marked in black letters..
A total of 9 submarines have been delivered to the Russian Navy since the beginning of this decade ; 2 submarines in 2020, 4 submarines in 2021 and 3 submarines in 2022. That's exactly 3 submarines per year. Of the 9 submarines that were handed over, 2/3 are nuclear submarines.

* My guess is that this submarines will be delivered in the next year; K-571 "Krasnoyarsk" (Project 885M), K-XXX "Emperor Alexander III" (955A), B-586 "Kronshtadt" (677) and B-XXX "Mozhaysk" (636.3).
* My assumptions are that the following submarines could be launched; K-564 "Arkhangelsk" (885M), B-XXX "Khabarovsk" (Project 09851), K-XXX "Knyaz Pozharskiy" (955A), B-XXX "Mozhaysk" (636.3). I would not be surprised if the submarine K-XXX "Perm" of project 885M is also launched next year. I think that next year will be one of the most interesting because there will certainly be laying of keels for future submarines.

SEVMASH ; submarines built and in active service of the Russian Navy.

1. K-549 "Knyaz Vladimir" (955A); in active service from 12 June 2020, NF
2. K-546 "Kazan" (885M) ; in active service from 5 May 2021, NF
3. K-552 "Knyaz Oleg" (955A); in active service from 21 December 2021, PF
4. K-573 "Novosibirsk" (885M); in active service from 21 December 2021, PF
5. K-329 "Belgorod" (09852); in active service from 8 July 2022. PF
6. K-553 "Generalissimus Suvorov" (955A); in active service from 29 December 2022; PF.

ADMIRALITY; submarines built and in active service of the Russian Navy. All submarines belong to project 636.3

7. B-603 "Volkhov"; active from 24 October 2020 in Pacific fleet,
8. B-602 "Magadan"; active from 12 October 2021 in Pacific fleet,
9. B-588 "Ufa"; active from 16 November 2022 in Pacific fleet.


SEVMASH; Launched, in construction.....

10. K-571 "Krasnoyarsk" (885M); UC from 27.07.2014, launched on 30.07.2021 and currently at state sea trials. PF
11. B-XXX "Khabarovsk", project 09851 SPNS (special purpose nuclear submarine), in construction since 27.07.2014,
12. K-564 "Arkhangelsk", project 885M "Yasen-M", in construction since 19.03.2015,
13. K-XXX "Imperator Aleksandr III", project 955A "Borei-A", UC from 18.12.2015; LAUNCHED on 29 December 2022,
14. K-XXX "Perm", project 885M "Yasen-M",in construction since 29.07.2016,
15. K-XXX "Knyaz Pozharskiy", project 955A "Borei-A" , in construction since 23.12.2016,
16. K-XXX "Ulyanovsk", project 885M "Yasen-M", in construction since 27.07.2017,
17. K-XXX "Voronezh", project 885M "Yasen-M", in construction since 20.07.2020,
18. K-XXX "Vladivostok", project 885M "Yasen-M", in construction since 20.07.2020,
19. K-XXX "Knayz Potemkin", project 955A "Borei-A",in construction since 23.08.2021,
20. K-XXX "Dmitry Donskoy", project 955A "Borei-A", in construction since 23.08.2021.

ADMIRALITY; Launched, in construction....

21. B-586 "Kronshtadt" (677); under construction from 28.07.2005; Sea trials, NF
22. B-587 "Velikiye Luki" (677); UC from 19.03.2015; LAUNCHED on 23. December 2022; NF
23. B-XXX "Mozhaysk" (636.3); UC from 23.08.2021, it will be launched by March next year,
24. B-XXX "Yakutsk" (636.3); UC from 23.08.2021,
25. B-XXX "Vologda" (677); UC from 12.06.2022,
26. B-XXX "Yaroslavl" (677); UC from 12.06.2022.


SEVMASH; submarines handed over to the Russian Navy during the last decade..

27. K-535 "Yuri Dolgorukiy" (955), active from 29.12.2012; NF
28. K-550 "Alexander Nevsky" (955), active from 23.12.2013; PF
29. K-560 "Severodvinsk" (885), active from 30.12.2013; NF
30. K-551 "Vladimir Monomakh" (955), active from 19.12.2014; PF.

ADMIRALITY; submarines handed over to the Russian Navy during the last decade..

31. B-585 "Sankt Peterburg" (677); active in NF from 08.05.2010;
32. B-261 "Novorossiysk" (636.3) ; active in BSF from 22.08.2014 ,
33. B-237 "Rostov-on-Don" (636.3); actvie in BSF from 30.12.2014 ,
34. B-262 "Stary Oskol" (636.3); active in BSF from 03.07.2015 ,
35. B-265 "Krasnodar" (636.3); active in BSF from 05.11.2015 ,
36. B-268 "Veliky Novgorod" (636.3); active in BSF from 26.10.2016 or 6 years, 1 month, 2 days,
37. B-271 "Kolpino" (636.3); active in BSF from 24.11.2016 ,
38. B-274 "Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky" (636.3); active in PF from 25.11.2019.

Submarines delivered since 2010;
* 2010; 1 (diesel-electric),
* 2011; /
* 2012; 1 nuclear,
* 2013; 2 nuclear,
* 2014; 1 nuclear, 2 diesel-electric or 3 in total,
* 2015; 2 diesel-electric,
* 2016; 2 diesel-electric,
* 2017; /
* 2018; /
* 2019; 1 diesel-electric,
* 2020; 1 nuclear and 1 diesel-electric; 2 in total,
* 2021; 3 nuclear and 1 diesel-electric; 4 in total,
* 2022; 2 nuclear and 1 diesel-electric; 3 in total.

Modified text I wrote on November 25, 2022. Since then, one submarine has been decommissioned and one has entered the active service of the Russian Navy. Changes are marked in black letters.
Nuclear submarines in the Russian Navy. from the oldest to the youngest.


1980'S

1. BS-136 "Orenburg" (Project 09786), active from November 30, 1981,

X. TK-208 "Dmitry Donskoy" (Project 941UM), active from December 29, 1981 ; DECCOMISSIONED February 6, 2023

2. K-44 "Ryazan" (project 667 BDR), active from September 17, 1982,

3. K-51 "Verkhoturye" (667 BDRM), active from 28.12.1984,

4. BS-64 "Podmoskovye" (Project 09787), active from 23.12.1986,

5. K-114 "Tula" (Project 667BDRM); active from 30.10.1987,

6. K-117 "Bryansk" (project 667 BDRM); active from 30.09.1988,

7. K-132 "Irkutsk" (Project 949AM), active from 30.12.1988,

8. K-18 "Karelia" (Project 667BDRM); active from 10.10.1989,



1990s

9. K-407 "Novomoskovsk" (Project 667 BDRM), active from 27.11.1990,

10. K-410 "Smolensk" (Project 949A), active from 22.12.1990,

11. K-331 "ex-Magadan" (Project 971), active from 23.12.1990,

12. B-534 "Nizhny Novgorod" (Project 945A), active from 26.12.1990,

13. K-317 "Pantera" (Project 971), active frome 27.12.1990,

14. K-442 "Chelyabinsk" (Project 949AM), active from 29.12.1990,

15. B-138 "Obninsk" (Project 671 RTMK), active from 30.12.1990,

16. K-461 "Volk" (971M), active from 29.12.1991,

17. K-456 "Tver" (949A), active from 18.08.1992,

18. B-448 "Tambov" (Project 671 RTMK), active from 24.09.1992,

19. K-328 "Leopard" (971M), active from 30.12.1992,

20. K-266 "Orel" (949A), active from 30.12.1992,

21. K-419 "Kuzbass" (971U), active from 31.12.1992,

22. K-186 "Omsk" (949A), active from 15.12.1993,

23. B-336 "Pskov" (945A), active from 17.12.1993,

24. K-154 "Tigr" (971; under repair and modernization), active from 29.12.1993,

25. K-295 "Samara" (971M), active from 17.07.1995,

26. K-157 "Vepr" (971U); active from  25.11.1995,

27. K-150 "Tomsk" (949A); active from 30.12.1996.


2000s

28. K-335 "Gepard" (971U), active from 05.12.2001,


2010S

29. K-535 "Yuri Dolgorukiy" (955), active from 29.12.2012,

30. K-550 "Alexander Nevsky" (955), active from 23.12.2013,

31. K-560 "Severodvinsk" (885), active from 30.12.2013,

32. K-551 "Vladimir Monomakh" (955), active from 19.12.2014,


2020s

33. K-552 "Knyaz Vladimir" (955A), active from 12.06.2020,

34, K-561 "Kazan" (885M), active 05.05.2021,

35. K-552 "Knyaz Oleg" (955A), active from 21.12.2021,

36. K-573 "Novosibirsk" (885M); active from 21.12.2021,

37. K-329 "Belgorod" (09852), active from 08.07.2022,

38. K-553 "Generalissimus Suvorov" (955A), active from 29.12.2022.


* 1980's: 8 submarines,
* 1990's: 19 submarines,
* 2000's: 1 submarine,
* 2010's: 4 submarines,
* 2020's: 6 submarines.

No news about K-564 "Arkhangelsk", "Khabarovsk", etc..nothing..
ON THE DAY WHEN RUSSIA LAUNCHES "ARKHANGELSK" I WILL RETURN TO THE FORUM AND UNTIL THEN GREETINGS TO EVERYONE...
I have no desire or will to write about other topics and I am taking a break..


March 11, 12:31

Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy oversaw the construction of nuclear submarines at Sevmash
The Ministry of Defense recalled that the production association continues to build nuclear submarine strategic missile cruisers of projects 955-A "Borey-A" and nuclear submarine missile cruisers of project 885-M "Yasen-M"

MOSCOW, March 11. /TASS/. The Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral Nikolai Evmenov, during his working trip to Severodvinsk, oversaw the construction of nuclear submarines and the introduction of new weapons systems. This was reported on Saturday to journalists in the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

"Admiral Nikolai Evmenov held a meeting with the leadership of shipbuilding and ship repair enterprises, with representatives of design bureaus, and also monitored the construction, repair and modernization of nuclear submarines and the introduction of new weapons systems," the ministry said.

The Ministry of Defense recalled that the Sevmash Production Association is continuing the construction of nuclear submarine strategic missile cruisers of projects 955-A "Borey-A" and nuclear submarine missile cruisers of project 885-M "Yasen-M".

In December 2022, another strategic submarine, the Generalissimo Suvorov, was enlisted in the Russian Navy, which is currently undergoing combat training in the Northern Fleet.


https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/17242289

Wait for the howls re this

Victor vicktop55
@vicktop55
·
5h
1/2 Russia demonstrates its capabilities off the coast of the United States.

Nuclear submarines of the Russian Navy will conduct test salvo firing of ballistic missiles, - Commander-in-Chief of the Navy.

2/2 The tests will take place in the neutral waters of the Pacific Ocean, relatively close to the coast of the United States. The missiles will be equipped with imitation nuclear warheads. http://t.me/vicktop55/13696

Nuclear subs of the Pacific Fleet leaving their base for snap exercise

I wonder if the Russians will make a submarine that fires SLBMs with detonation engines to replace the anemic Bulavas.

You could have a heightened and improved version of the old Akula with 20 detonation engined missiles carrying up to 20 warheads each and it could deliver these without much warning if it was deployed closer to the target.

It will not build any new SSBNs. The 955A from Bulava will remain in service for the next 40 years.

It will not build any new SSBNs. The 955A from Bulava will remain in service for the next 40 years.

Highly unlikely considering that the Borei and Bulava were built under treaty limitations that no longer apply and in the Bulava's case it was built with older technology that has since been surpassed, namely its engines not being detonation engines.

Considering that there will be a need to increase warhead numbers as much as possible and that fielding 50 of the anemic Boreis is just not practical, bigger submarines with heavier missiles are very likely.

In ICBM and SLBM propulsion technologies, detonation engines have not yet been developed. Anyway, this is only a developed technology and it is not known whether it will be used in SLBM missiles.
I don't know why Borey has to be anemic. It is currently the most modern SSBN in the world. So is Bulava. It does not carry a large load, but it also has a much flatter trajectory and a faster boost phase.

I had the idea in that detonation engines could be used to increase the payload to 20 warheads on a heavy SLBM and give it better acceleration.

Just for example, Russia (USSR) put the following SSN/SSGN nuclear submarines into service only from 1980 to 1991, when the USSR collapsed;

* 19 submarines of project 671 RTM and RTM(K) Schchuka,
* 8 of project 971 Schchuka-B,
* 8 pf project 949A Antey,
* two of project 949 Granit,
* two 945 Barracuda,
* two 945A Kondor,
* two 705 Lira,
* and one of project 685 Plavnik.
* In total; 44 nuclear submarines and ONLY 22 non-nuclear submarines of project 877.

The construction of project 636.3 is a forced solution because Sevmash is working on 3 different nuclear submarine projects, although the strength and quality of Russian shipbuilding is in nuclear submarines - it always has been.
The Soviet Union viewed non-nuclear submarines as secondary submarines in closed seas, the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea - that's all.

Yasen or nothing - everything else is less important in Russian shipbuilding.
Borei-A, Yes, but it is a submarine with a completely different purpose.

They built more Project 877 submarines than that. But a significant fraction of those were for export. 13 submarines which you did not count. Also in the 1980s they built a couple of diesel Project 641B submarines. 4 submarines.

The nuclear submarines are not exported so of course all production would have gone to the Soviet Navy.

I disagree with your notion the Soviets had limited amounts of diesel submarines. Especially when you take into consideration the huge amount of Project 641 submarines only retired in the 1990s. Besides, production of conventional submarines does not take resources from nuclear ones. The shipyards are not the same and a lot of the components are not the same.

Unfortunately the issue with lack of nuclear attack submarines will not be solved, I think, until after Laika enters mass production. And who knows when that will happen.