Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #14

What would be the Russian plan if the US exited Syria like they did in Afghanistan?

The US leaving Syria is more like the US leaving Japan or Germany than it is the US leaving Afghanistan...

The US will not leave Japan and Germany unless they fall apart.

Syrian air defenses destroyed 22 of the 24 rockets launched by the Israeli Air Force on August 19.

The Russian-made Buk-M2E and Pantsir-S Syrian air defense systems destroyed 22 of the 24 guided missiles fired by Israeli Air Force fighters at the Rif Damascus and Homs provinces on August 19. This was announced to journalists by the Deputy head of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of the warring parties in Syria, Rear Admiral Vadim Kulit.

He noted that on August 19, at about 23:00, six tactical fighters of the Israeli Air Force from Lebanese airspace struck 24 guided missiles at targets in the Syrian Arab Republic in the provinces of Rif Damascus and Homs. "The Syrian air defense forces on duty destroyed 22 missiles from the Russian-made Buk-M2E and Pantsir-S complexes in service with the SAR armed forces. There are no losses among the Syrian military and no destruction of infrastructure facilities" – Kulit said.

Source: 

Russian_Patriot_ wrote:Syrian air defenses destroyed 22 of the 24 rockets launched by the Israeli Air Force on August 19.

The Russian-made Buk-M2E and Pantsir-S Syrian air defense systems destroyed 22 of the 24 guided missiles fired by Israeli Air Force fighters at the Rif Damascus and Homs provinces on August 19. This was announced to journalists by the Deputy head of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of the warring parties in Syria, Rear Admiral Vadim Kulit.

He noted that on August 19, at about 23:00, six tactical fighters of the Israeli Air Force from Lebanese airspace struck 24 guided missiles at targets in the Syrian Arab Republic in the provinces of Rif Damascus and Homs. "The Syrian air defense forces on duty destroyed 22 missiles from the Russian-made Buk-M2E and Pantsir-S complexes in service with the SAR armed forces. There are no losses among the Syrian military and no destruction of infrastructure facilities" – Kulit said.

Source: 

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/12184155

This is a clear sign of what said previously : Isreali intelligence network in those area, in particular its human intelligence, must have suffered some truly functional distruption (likely several operatives has been compromised or eliminated).

In the past IAF ,in facts, was almost always capable to select its targets partilally among those not defended by Бук-М2Э and Панцирь-С now it seem that Israeli planners are incapable to prevent attentively prepared air attacks to finish directly in the maws of those systems.

Obviously those series of failed attacks not only boost significantly the morale of Syrian troops but could also accelerate the political decision to acquire several more of those systems to replace old/modernized Soviet era specimens.

Mindstorm wrote:
This is a clear sign of what said previously : Isreali intelligence network in those area, in particular its human intelligence, must have suffered some truly functional distruption (likely several operatives has been compromised or eliminated).

If true, about time... After all the damage done, directly or indirectly, by zionist agents in Syria and Iran, makes you wonder: don't these countries have counterintelligence? Maybe the Russians provided covert help in this area too.

Mindstorm wrote:
Obviously those series of failed attacks not only boost significantly the morale of Syrian troops but could also accelerate the political decision to acquire several more of those systems to replace old/modernized Soviet era specimens.

We know the Russians are using Syria as a new product testbed. Maybe we are seeing the RuAF testing new upgrades or even new AD missiles or perhaps systems, under the cover of darkness.

JohninMK wrote:

Mindstorm wrote:
Obviously those series of failed attacks not only boost significantly the morale of Syrian troops but could also accelerate the political decision to acquire several more of those systems to replace old/modernized Soviet era specimens.

We know the Russians are using Syria as a new product testbed. Maybe we are seeing the RuAF testing new upgrades or even new AD missiles or perhaps systems, under the cover of darkness.

All new domestic systems are exclusively employed and tested in the area of deployment of Federation's forces.

In the Damascus and Homs area there are exclusively export models operated by Syrian crew; as said the novelity lie not in the percentage of ammunitions downed ( syrian operated ,insulated Панцирь-С and Бук-М2Э launchers, have by now proved several times similar percentage of downed missiles/glide bombs, equal or near to 100% of the incoming salvo, with an interceptor's expenditure near to 1:1) but in the fact that IAF has been incapable to know in advance theirs position and planned movement so to arrange the air attacks to at least partially avoid theris protected area.

With air defense systems so highly mobile and so easy to disperse/camouflage such as Панцирь-С and Бук-М2Э, even if operated by not perfectly proficient crew, you need absolutely positional data update from HUMINT on ground and in the area (and possibly also some mole from within enemy military command and control structures) in order to plan an attack capable to avoid the engagement footprint of those SAMs because also space-based intelligence provide a cycle of information's update largely too slow and untrustworthy to allow similar planning.

IAF ,except for some normal failure, was up to recent past almost always capable to avoid completely or partially the area defended by those systems, attacking the most sensible targets available as soon as Панцирь-С and Бук-М2Э launchers moved to new positions.

For some reason in all the latest attacks this process failed systematically.

Mindstorm wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

Mindstorm wrote:
Obviously those series of failed attacks not only boost significantly the morale of Syrian troops but could also accelerate the political decision to acquire several more of those systems to replace old/modernized Soviet era specimens.

We know the Russians are using Syria as a new product testbed. Maybe we are seeing the RuAF testing new upgrades or even new AD missiles or perhaps systems, under the cover of darkness.

All new domestic systems are exclusively employed and tested in the area of deployment of Federation's forces.

In the Damascus and Homs area there are exclusively export models operated by Syrian crew; as said the novelity lie not in the percentage of ammunitions downed ( syrian operated ,insulated Панцирь-С and Бук-М2Э launchers, have by now proved several times similar percentage of downed missiles/glide bombs, equal or near to 100% of the incoming salvo, with an interceptor's expenditure near to 1:1) but in the fact that IAF has been incapable to know in advance theirs position and planned movement so to arrange the air attacks to at least partially avoid theris protected area.

With air defense systems so highly mobile and so easy to disperse/camouflage such as Панцирь-С and Бук-М2Э, even if operated by not perfectly proficient crew, you need absolutely positional data update from HUMINT on ground and in the area (and possibly also some mole from within enemy military command and control structures) in order to plan an attack capable to avoid the engagement footprint of those SAMs because also space-based intelligence provide a cycle of information's update largely too slow and untrustworthy to allow similar planning.

IAF ,except for some normal failure, was up to recent past almost always capable to avoid completely or partially the area defended by those systems, attacking the most sensible targets available as soon as Панцирь-С and Бук-М2Э launchers moved to new positions.

For some reason in all the latest attacks this process failed systematically.

I bow to your knowledge but, regardless of export/Syrian manned units, surely the Russian military has the capability of moving mobile systems and manpower in secret around Syria? Especially if they look similar to current products and are all too happy to give the Syrians the credit.

I would suggest that the public has very little idea regarding what Russia is up to when it doesn't want us to know about it.

It will be interesting if AD units are moved into position to give better coverage over Lebanon and maybe Jordan so that they have a better chance of chasing the IAF home.

Mind you if Israel hits any of the Iranian tanker(s) now on the way that could change the rules of engagement for the IAF over Lebanon. I'm sure that Iran would value some real world testing against the IAF.

And please stop giving products their Russian name. It turns it into guesswork for some of us and this is an English language site. Thanks.

JohoninMK wrote:surely the Russian military has the capability of moving mobile systems and manpower in secret around Syria? Especially if they look similar to current products and are all too happy to give the Syrians the credit.

I would suggest that the public has very little idea regarding what Russia is up to when it doesn't want us to know about it.

This is correct but no Russian system or even Russian-manned system has been ever employed or will be employed to directly neutralize IAF attacks or down IAF aircraft ,at least until today bilateral deals and relative RoE will still remain in force.

Export models SAMs, operated by Syrian crew, are obviously a totally different matter: from theirs operational employment against the most advanced "domestic" version of foreign PGMs and theirs electronic warfare systems can be extracted very accurate data for produce model scenarios involving much more advanced domestic versions of those SAMs inserted in an advanced IAD networks supported by EW and masking /decoy systems of various kind and with the aid of space-based intel.

From those analysis come from the assessment that new models of those systems coming into force today, with widely increased characteristics, (at example Панцирь-СM with fully robotized engagement's process, hypersonic interceptors and programmed warhead detonation or Бук-M3 with wide increased lateral overload limit and a new generation of terminal homing sensor) are largely aimed at future air attack developments by part of foreign competitors ,because today SAM systems already assure a very wide lead against existing foreign products operative today.

The US will not leave Japan and Germany unless they fall apart.

Was trying to suggest that if the US left Syria that Syria would actually be better off... just like in Japan and Germany... the US does nothing in any of those places to create peace and stability... in fact if anything they are a negative presence and it would be better for the local population if they did leave.

Eventually the Japanese and Germans might grow a pair and realise US presence is more damaging than it is stabilising or beneficial and ask them to leave in a way they cannot refuse.

The problem is that they are junkies and the US will just threaten to stop subsidising or giving them stuff and they will change their minds...

We know the Russians are using Syria as a new product testbed. Maybe we are seeing the RuAF testing new upgrades or even new AD missiles or perhaps systems, under the cover of darkness.

Not really needed.... the Syrians are tapped in to the Russian network so they would get early warning of incoming threats well beyond what a BUK or Pantsir unit on its own could manage and without operating 24/7.

It is like the Battle of Britain... instead of acting 24/7 constantly looking for threats and targets they can relax and wait for the warning, which means when there is an attack they are fresh and ready for the fight.

The BUK and Pantsir were designed from the start to engage stand off munitions so such targets do not represent a problem for either system.

the Russian military has the capability of moving mobile systems and manpower in secret around Syria?

In the past the Russians in situ have not actually shot down any missiles or targets that were not directed at their own forces and I suspect that is a deal they have with both Israel and Turkey to prevent things escalating out of control into a war between Russia and HATO or Russia and Israel.

Especially if they look similar to current products and are all too happy to give the Syrians the credit.

Their products seem to work as advertised most of the time. There is no such thing as a 100% perfect system.

And please stop giving products their Russian name. It turns it into guesswork for some of us and this is an English language site. Thanks.

A reasonable request I would think, though Pantsir and BUK should be familiar with english speaking members, they might not understand those same names in Cyrillic.

I suppose that increasing effectiveness is a combination of experience and increasing saturation.
Syrians have more and more assets on their hands, some of them newly delivered, and some of them repaired/modified.
Anyway, the overall interception ratio is quite impressive, especially if we compare it to the Yemeni/Iranian campaign against SA ...
There are no similarities, so we clearly have evidence for the real effectiveness difference.
Plus I suppose that weapon used by Israel is supposed to be supa dupa, right?
Iranian can't be matched, right?

It seems like most of the Israeli attacks are launched from Lebanese airspace. I think it is high time to spring a trap and down a few launchers now that they are capable of shooting down most missiles. A couple of pics of downed F35's and F-16's posted here would be a welcome addition.

GarryB wrote:
A reasonable request I would think, though Pantsir and BUK should be familiar with english speaking members, they might not understand those same names in Cyrillic.

I don't mind; I don't know much about Cyrillic but it doesn't take much to discern what is meant.
This is an English language forum but it's about the Russian military so I see no harm in some occasional Russian "flavor."

Mir wrote:It seems like most of the Israeli attacks are launched from Lebanese airspace. I think it is high time to spring a trap and down a few launchers now that they are capable of shooting down most missiles. A couple of pics of downed F35's and F-16's posted here would be a welcome addition.

That would be tempting but too risky now. It would only give the enemy a pretext to overwhelm Syria's new capabilities and set them back to square one. If only this damn civil war could be wrapped up, so Syria could focus on Israel, with bigger and better equipped armed forces, then they'd be in a position to take chances...

GarryB wrote:
A reasonable request I would think, though Pantsir and BUK should be familiar with english speaking members, they might not understand those same names in Cyrillic.

Me too. Those two aren't too bad, Бук-М2Э is easy but Панцирь-С ID'd only by the C at the end and context. Other product names he uses can be guessed from the numeric suffix, pure guesswork or have to use Yandex. Not ideal.

JohninMK wrote:

GarryB wrote:
A reasonable request I would think, though Pantsir and BUK should be familiar with english speaking members, they might not understand those same names in Cyrillic.

Me too. Those two aren't too bad, Бук-М2Э is easy but Панцирь-С ID'd only by the C at the end and context. Other product names he uses can be guessed from the numeric suffix, pure guesswork or have to use Yandex. Not ideal.

No harm in learning a bit of Cyrillic mind you.

Mir wrote:
No harm in learning a bit of Cyrillic mind you.    

I'm a bit too old for that

Mir wrote:It seems like most of the Israeli attacks are launched from Lebanese airspace. I think it is high time to spring a trap and down a few launchers now that they are capable of shooting down most missiles. A couple of pics of downed F35's and F-16's posted here would be a welcome addition.

Israeli territory cannot be attacked today and was never directly and deeply attacked in the past for the same reason it attempt, in any way and with any mean, to prevent Iran to acquire a similar capability: partial nuclear offensive capability and the political will and unity to employ this nulcear option if attacks aimed at destroy its conventional offensive potential  would be carried out in its territory by any of its conventional armed neighbouring nation.

This is truly an open secret in the Middle East theatre and allow the technologically advanced, but anyhow very tiny state of Israel ,effectively devoid of the necessary geographical deepness and stand-off distances to resist enemy counterattacks both air and ground based, to play safely and continously the role of the attacker without any fear that its exposed infrastructural basis for its offensive potential would be eliminated by enemy attacks.

Any nation of the area know that the "red line" in place lie in offensive operations that ,at maximum, can involve peripheral/contested territory or limited to the line of clash.

Highly focused attacks against the concentrated cluster of Israeli Military Industrial Complex, barrel artillery area saturation attack against theris main airfields, large scale armoured/meachanized breakthrough operation in Isreali territory or UAV/cruise missiles/ballistic missiles attacks against theirs command bases, main radar bases or PGM depots are well beyond this red line and will be immediately responded with a demonstrative initial tactical nuclear strike on the most critical infrastructure of enemy territory.

This is the hard reality of that theatre since '70 years ,and none will see ,still today, any of the conventionally armed nation of the area attempt any strange idea against Israel, it is simply out of question.

Mindstorm wrote:
This is the hard reality of that theatre since '70 years ,and none will see ,still today, any of the conventionally armed nation of the area attempt any strange idea against Israel, it is simply out of question.

Its their local version of MAD. Either side can now destroy the other, probably without an aircraft leaving the ground. The number, power and accuracy of modern conventional munitions is finally leveling the playing field. Plus Iran has entered the equation with its longer ranged missiles, effectively negating the IAF.

Mindstorm wrote:

Mir wrote:It seems like most of the Israeli attacks are launched from Lebanese airspace. I think it is high time to spring a trap and down a few launchers now that they are capable of shooting down most missiles. A couple of pics of downed F35's and F-16's posted here would be a welcome addition.

Israeli territory cannot be attacked today and was never directly and deeply attacked in the past for the same reason it attempt, in any way and with any mean, to prevent Iran to acquire a similar capability: partial nuclear offensive capability and the political will and unity to employ this nulcear option if attacks aimed at destroy its conventional offensive potential  would be carried out in its territory by any of its conventional armed neighbouring nation.

This is truly an open secret in the Middle East theatre and allow the technologically advanced, but anyhow very tiny state of Israel ,effectively devoid of the necessary geographical deepness and stand-off distances to resist enemy counterattacks both air and ground based, to play safely and continously the role of the attacker without any fear that its exposed infrastructural basis for its offensive potential would be eliminated by enemy attacks.

Any nation of the area know that the "red line" in place lie in offensive operations that ,at maximum, can involve peripheral/contested territory or limited to the line of clash.

Highly focused attacks against the concentrated cluster of Israeli Military Industrial Complex, barrel artillery area saturation attack against theris main airfields, large scale armoured/meachanized breakthrough operation in Isreali territory or UAV/cruise missiles/ballistic missiles attacks against theirs command bases, main radar bases or PGM depots are well beyond this red line and will be immediately responded with a demonstrative initial tactical nuclear strike on the most critical infrastructure of enemy territory.

This is the hard reality of that theatre since '70 years ,and none will see ,still today, any of the conventionally armed nation of the area attempt any strange idea against Israel, it is simply out of question.

I agree but also Israel had the backing of the US elite - mostly because the relatively small Jewish population in the US has an enormous amount of lobbying power ($). So if you bully the smaller brother the bigger one will come after you even if it cost the bigger brother an eye!

No harm in learning a bit of Cyrillic mind you.

True, but the policy of the forum is that it is an English language forum so you shouldn't have to...

Me too. Those two aren't too bad, Бук-М2Э is easy but Панцирь-С ID'd only by the C at the end and context.

I am familiar with the letters, though sometimes I recognise the words so for Бук-М2Э I recognise the B and the K and that the Y is a yoo sort of sound so BUK... and the Панцирь-С I recognise the first letter as being a P because I have seen it in regards to the RPG and PPK... the a is the same and the H is an N sounding letter. The U with a tail is a tricky one and but I normally recognise it as being a Ts sound like in Spetsnaz or in this case Pantsir and the back to front N is an i sound and the p is an r. The C is an S and when it is the SM model the M is the same in both alphabets.

So Pan ir-S it becomes easy to recognise Pantsir-S... when talking about air defence systems of course...

This is the hard reality of that theatre since '70 years ,and none will see ,still today, any of the conventionally armed nation of the area attempt any strange idea against Israel, it is simply out of question.

Totally agree.... but the constant needle attacks might lead to Israeli platforms in foreign territory to be attacked or ambushed... I would expect the delivery of a nuclear strike on Syria would come by cruise missile... which they have shown they can shoot down, or by stand off weapon launched by aircraft which have also been intercepted... see what I am getting at?

The Israeli tactics are becoming self defeating because they are creating a Syria and also an Egypt and Iraq that will likely buy Russian air defence systems to protect themselves from Israeli attacks and when they get to the point where they are confident most things can be stopped their nuclear deterrence is what they will lose...

Not sure if you have read out tooing and froing, but would like to highlight Johns request that you not use Cyrillic letters for Russian systems so that he can understand which systems you are talking about.

This is an english language forum after all...

Its their local version of MAD. Either side can now destroy the other, probably without an aircraft leaving the ground. The number, power and accuracy of modern conventional munitions is finally leveling the playing field. Plus Iran has entered the equation with its longer ranged missiles, effectively negating the IAF.

Exactly, but unless Israel can develop an interception invulnerable method of delivering their nuclear deterrence then they are like a Russia with no navy surrounded by hundreds of AEGIS class cruisers armed with ABM missiles able to shoot down ICBMs and land based neighbours that are supporting their enemies. They need hypersonic manouvering anti ship missiles to remove the ABM threat and restore their nuclear deterrent...

I agree but also Israel had the backing of the US elite - mostly because the relatively small Jewish population in the US has an enormous amount of lobbying power ($). So if you bully the smaller brother the bigger one will come after you even if it cost the bigger brother an eye

A nice kickback is always good but are they prepared to drag the US into WWIII so Israel can keep violating its neighbours airspace at will?

Obviously the zionists... which include christian evangelests will want to save Israel for the end of world bullshit they have made up, but there will be quite a few Americans with power who are not interested in committing suicide along with Israel any time soon.