Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #14

par far wrote:What would be the Russian plan if the US exited Syria like they did in Afghanistan?

Russian_Patriot_ wrote:Syrian air defenses destroyed 22 of the 24 rockets launched by the Israeli Air Force on August 19.

The Russian-made Buk-M2E and Pantsir-S Syrian air defense systems destroyed 22 of the 24 guided missiles fired by Israeli Air Force fighters at the Rif Damascus and Homs provinces on August 19. This was announced to journalists by the Deputy head of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of the warring parties in Syria, Rear Admiral Vadim Kulit.

He noted that on August 19, at about 23:00, six tactical fighters of the Israeli Air Force from Lebanese airspace struck 24 guided missiles at targets in the Syrian Arab Republic in the provinces of Rif Damascus and Homs. "The Syrian air defense forces on duty destroyed 22 missiles from the Russian-made Buk-M2E and Pantsir-S complexes in service with the SAR armed forces. There are no losses among the Syrian military and no destruction of infrastructure facilities" – Kulit said.

Source: 

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/12184155

Mindstorm wrote:
This is a clear sign of what said previously : Isreali intelligence network in those area, in particular its human intelligence, must have suffered some truly functional distruption (likely several operatives has been compromised or eliminated).

Mindstorm wrote:
Obviously those series of failed attacks not only boost significantly the morale of Syrian troops but could also accelerate the political decision to acquire several more of those systems to replace old/modernized Soviet era specimens.

JohninMK wrote:

Mindstorm wrote:
Obviously those series of failed attacks not only boost significantly the morale of Syrian troops but could also accelerate the political decision to acquire several more of those systems to replace old/modernized Soviet era specimens.

We know the Russians are using Syria as a new product testbed. Maybe we are seeing the RuAF testing new upgrades or even new AD missiles or perhaps systems, under the cover of darkness.

Mindstorm wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

Mindstorm wrote:
Obviously those series of failed attacks not only boost significantly the morale of Syrian troops but could also accelerate the political decision to acquire several more of those systems to replace old/modernized Soviet era specimens.

We know the Russians are using Syria as a new product testbed. Maybe we are seeing the RuAF testing new upgrades or even new AD missiles or perhaps systems, under the cover of darkness.

All new domestic systems are exclusively employed and tested in the area of deployment of Federation's forces.

In the Damascus and Homs area there are exclusively export models operated by Syrian crew; as said the novelity lie not in the percentage of ammunitions downed ( syrian operated ,insulated Панцирь-С and Бук-М2Э launchers, have by now proved several times similar percentage of downed missiles/glide bombs, equal or near to 100% of the incoming salvo, with an interceptor's expenditure near to 1:1) but in the fact that IAF has been incapable to know in advance theirs position and planned movement so to arrange the air attacks to at least partially avoid theris protected area.

With air defense systems so highly mobile and so easy to disperse/camouflage such as Панцирь-С and Бук-М2Э, even if operated by not perfectly proficient crew, you need absolutely positional data update from HUMINT on ground and in the area (and possibly also some mole from within enemy military command and control structures) in order to plan an attack capable to avoid the engagement footprint of those SAMs because also space-based intelligence provide a cycle of information's update largely too slow and untrustworthy to allow similar planning.

IAF ,except for some normal failure, was up to recent past almost always capable to avoid completely or partially the area defended by those systems, attacking the most sensible targets available as soon as Панцирь-С and Бук-М2Э launchers moved to new positions.

For some reason in all the latest attacks this process failed systematically.

JohoninMK wrote:surely the Russian military has the capability of moving mobile systems and manpower in secret around Syria? Especially if they look similar to current products and are all too happy to give the Syrians the credit.

I would suggest that the public has very little idea regarding what Russia is up to when it doesn't want us to know about it.

GarryB wrote:
A reasonable request I would think, though Pantsir and BUK should be familiar with english speaking members, they might not understand those same names in Cyrillic.

Mir wrote:It seems like most of the Israeli attacks are launched from Lebanese airspace. I think it is high time to spring a trap and down a few launchers now that they are capable of shooting down most missiles. A couple of pics of downed F35's and F-16's posted here would be a welcome addition.

GarryB wrote:
A reasonable request I would think, though Pantsir and BUK should be familiar with english speaking members, they might not understand those same names in Cyrillic.

JohninMK wrote:

GarryB wrote:
A reasonable request I would think, though Pantsir and BUK should be familiar with english speaking members, they might not understand those same names in Cyrillic.

Me too. Those two aren't too bad, Бук-М2Э is easy but Панцирь-С ID'd only by the C at the end and context. Other product names he uses can be guessed from the numeric suffix, pure guesswork or have to use Yandex. Not ideal.

Mir wrote:
No harm in learning a bit of Cyrillic mind you.    

Mir wrote:It seems like most of the Israeli attacks are launched from Lebanese airspace. I think it is high time to spring a trap and down a few launchers now that they are capable of shooting down most missiles. A couple of pics of downed F35's and F-16's posted here would be a welcome addition.

Mindstorm wrote:
This is the hard reality of that theatre since '70 years ,and none will see ,still today, any of the conventionally armed nation of the area attempt any strange idea against Israel, it is simply out of question.

Mindstorm wrote:

Mir wrote:It seems like most of the Israeli attacks are launched from Lebanese airspace. I think it is high time to spring a trap and down a few launchers now that they are capable of shooting down most missiles. A couple of pics of downed F35's and F-16's posted here would be a welcome addition.

Israeli territory cannot be attacked today and was never directly and deeply attacked in the past for the same reason it attempt, in any way and with any mean, to prevent Iran to acquire a similar capability: partial nuclear offensive capability and the political will and unity to employ this nulcear option if attacks aimed at destroy its conventional offensive potential  would be carried out in its territory by any of its conventional armed neighbouring nation.

This is truly an open secret in the Middle East theatre and allow the technologically advanced, but anyhow very tiny state of Israel ,effectively devoid of the necessary geographical deepness and stand-off distances to resist enemy counterattacks both air and ground based, to play safely and continously the role of the attacker without any fear that its exposed infrastructural basis for its offensive potential would be eliminated by enemy attacks.

Any nation of the area know that the "red line" in place lie in offensive operations that ,at maximum, can involve peripheral/contested territory or limited to the line of clash.

Highly focused attacks against the concentrated cluster of Israeli Military Industrial Complex, barrel artillery area saturation attack against theris main airfields, large scale armoured/meachanized breakthrough operation in Isreali territory or UAV/cruise missiles/ballistic missiles attacks against theirs command bases, main radar bases or PGM depots are well beyond this red line and will be immediately responded with a demonstrative initial tactical nuclear strike on the most critical infrastructure of enemy territory.

This is the hard reality of that theatre since '70 years ,and none will see ,still today, any of the conventionally armed nation of the area attempt any strange idea against Israel, it is simply out of question.