The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

@ LMFS's post about the interview with the Senator.

If this Senator:
- Looks like "an imbecile who thinks he is a genius"
- Talks like "an imbecile who thinks he is a genius"
- He must be.....

Ukrainian soldier on the frontline in Stanytsia Luganskaya (under #Ukraine #Zelensky regime control): Locals have become very hostile towards us (Flag of Ukraine army), shouting "go away, it's our children who live here" to us #Donbass

The chicken pen seems quite active. Never step into a hive mind.

Nonetheless:

https://www.indianpunchline.com/biden-white-house-spoofs-the-kremlin/

kvs wrote:

LMFS wrote:

US' promises are worth less than zero, but the impotence of the West has been made acutely patent and Russia won more time. The real question is how the internal fight in the US is evolving, I don't want to be too optimistic but I sense that the neocon bunch has seen better days. This is what these psychos are talking about right now, hold on to your seat:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1468388070772850690

Indeed, America's promises are total excrement.  

The Twitter link shows the typical braying yanqui retard who lives in an exceptional bubble of detachment from reality.
Yanquis and their trash talk are tiresome.   Chicken shit generals fighting wars from their divans.  

That's a speech for domestic public. Must feed the americans with propaganda once in a while or they die.

They are well aware that US won't move for Ukraine but must play the strong guy with cheap talk.

ATLASCUB wrote:The chicken pen seems quite active. Never step into a hive mind.

Nonetheless:

https://www.indianpunchline.com/biden-white-house-spoofs-the-kremlin/

Bhadrakumar is missing the elephant in the room: Russia has the escalation dominance in that region and the US threats mean quite little. US has got nothing, Russia has probably neither, but they are not the ones with time against them.

They do?  

Putin & Biden have unfinished business – Kremlin

https://www.rt.com/russia/542589-putin-biden-unfinished-business/

The first one went so great, we already need another one, and soon.

Trick or treat. Let the desperation set in.

The Germans snowballing NS2 "unwillingly" has had quite the effect.

West favorite pastime in peace time: Seeing Russians bend over. Golly gee only war sets them straight, for a time of course. Once the horrors of war subside in the subconcious they're back to the old sport again, rinse and repeat. And the Russians play their part in the play - always the same. When will the loop break? It appears not in my lifetime at least.

There is a lot of armchair-esque discussions in this thread. If you wish for conflict then go and watch the MMA, maybe that will chill you out.

I'll summarize the last 10 or so pages of discussion: "If Ukraine is going to attempt to take the LDNR by force, Russia is going to respond*"

The 'West' has no leverage on Russia anymore. Russia has resources - they do not. Everything else simply requires time to re-create.

As the addage goes: "Can't build a house with money if no one is selling you the brick".

Idrees Ali
@idreesali114
· 5h
U.S. President Biden says putting U.S. troops on the ground is not on the table regarding Russia-Ukraine and Washington would not unilaterally use force against Russia for invading Ukraine.

Isos wrote:What are talking about ? You bring those conclusions from your ass.

Sure, may be, but I have a nice ass&like it
The very first thing here, is the fact that Ukropistan has been left alone, and no one will die for it.
Dot.
How WWP said, "tiema zakliucziena". Closed case.
I stand in line with @Krepost, not a bad working day loadout for a 60+ y/o
W can talk miles now, how much more he could succeed, but you know what ? The whole warmongering, that whole idiocy running&aired ... just ceased. It is a kind of bad taste now, to push the limits. Sure, in the US they will, with dickheads like that Ted Cruze if I remember that beardy asshole name correctly they will continue to fuel it up for internal gains.
But the case is closed.

ALAMO wrote:

Isos wrote:What are talking about ? You bring those conclusions from your ass.

Sure, may be, but I have a nice ass&like it
The very first thing here, is the fact that Ukropistan has been left alone, and no one will die for it.
Dot.
How WWP said, "tiema zakliucziena". Closed case.
I stand in line with @Krepost, not a bad working day loadout for a 60+ y/o
W can talk miles now, how much more he could succeed, but you know what ? The whole warmongering, that whole idiocy running&aired ... just ceased. It is a kind of bad taste now, to push the limits. Sure, in the US they will, with dickheads like that Ted Cruze if I remember that beardy asshole name correctly   they will continue to fuel it up for internal gains.
But the case is closed.

I imagine after this, the Ukrainian west must be feeling pretty Buttmad right now.

I'm surprised they didn't learn from Georgia's experience. But oh well, they weren't very smart in the first place.

I wasn't answering to you.

Case is not closed. USA are still sending weapons to fuel the war in donvass and nato still pushing for helping Ukraine. They won't stop until Russia attacks, they are like parasits.

They were just a subject, Mike. A tool. Used condom.
We can all share the fate, so there is really no place for a Schadefraude ...

PapaDragon wrote:

Isos wrote:......Case is not closed. USA are still sending weapons to fuel the war in donvass and nato still pushing for helping Ukraine. They won't stop until Russia attacks, they are like parasits.

Well the thing is that Russia won't attack

Why the hell would they? Everything now works in their favour

404 is still going down the shitter, winter is biting down, Nazis are polishing lamp post for Zelensky, gas money has never been better and even NS2 is still on track

This is why USA and EU want Russia to attack, current situation where Russia just has to sit on it's ass and get everything it wants doesn’t suit them

I agree with you in your assessment.

It is in Russia's favor to keep the status-quo for as long as possible and maintain some sort of peace.
While there is peace, Russia will in a few short years have:
- more piped and LNG'ed gas exported East, West and South.
- more mega projects implemented (fuels, minerals, roads, railways, agriculture, etc.)
- more wonder weapons enter service (Zircon, Poseidon, S-500/550, Sarmat, etc.)

While at the same time:
- 404 economy will continue in a downward spiral
- 404 will stop getting gas transit fees (2024 onwards)
- Biden will no longer remember his first name
- The collective's West self-inflicted problems and issues will aggravate

So yes, why the hell would Russia attack? Time is on their side.

Having said that, Russia can be dragged into war in Ukraine only under 2 circumstances:

A- Country 404 attacks and tries to conquer/subdue Donbass:
In which case Russian forces will intervene in a number of possible fashions, including:
- Stand-off strikes with missiles and air-power and allow DNR/LNR regain the remaining parts of their oblasts, followed up with official Moscow recognition of the 2 Republics
- Continue to march and liberate the rest of Russian speaking south and east (Kharkov. Odessa etc.) and divide 404 into 2 (Novorossia and Banderistan)
- March into Kiev and establish a pro-Russia government there that will transform Ukraine into a loose federation of semi-independent Oblasts

B- If country 404 is given NATO membership and/or NATO establishes bases there:
This is an absolutely unacceptable trespassing of Russia's redlines. It causes an immediate danger to the motherland. Russia will launch a war that is far more dangerous than any of the above confrontations.
NATO/USA know this, they are not stupid or suicidal. That is why they have not tried to get NATO into 404 despite all the request of the junta in Kiev.

I am new here, and I really enjoy this discussion, all angles are covered.

Honestly I agree with Papa Dragon, and Mike , it seems that Russia is really getting the best cut of the deal.

Germany is collapsing from inflationary pressure. zelensky is getting exiled, and NATO is meeting with Putin.

us Central banks raising interest rates soon, they cannot afford to escalate, so they're mouthing off with nobodies like that senator, but in the end their congress has no say anymore. Neither Pentagon. They can only get a consensus of least resistance. As for SWIFT they said this in 2014 and it's an empty threat.

Everyone needs to remember what they were saying 2 weeks before afghan escape.
They were not leaving , then they were flying with allies hanging off wheels of airplane.

West has lost all credibility. That's what the meeting with Putin was about. Today they will say sanctions and nuke russia. Tomorrow they will be at the negotiating table meeting with the "killer" . With banderites hanging from the landing gears.

You know when Russia is being given goodwill by the US for any reason there's something sinister afoot

Or are they running away with their tail between their legs declaring victory and high fiving each other?

The pipeline is not fully operational yet. In fact, for the West, it is a lever. Putin wants to see Nord Stream 2 working. Therefore, he probably will not want to go over to the invasion of Ukraine.

Except the pipeline is built. All the Russians really care about is that they can bypass the Ukraine if they need to, but if the customers want the gas to go through the Ukraine there has never been very much Russia could do about that.

Russia can now say you can have cheap NSII gas with no transit fees going to Ukraine or Poland or the Baltic states depending on which pipe it goes through, or you can pay more and get gas that might get stolen but even if it isn't it will cost you more because of said transit fees.

We supply the gas but you can choose which pipes it goes through and what risk you are prepared to take.

This sums up Ukraine perfectly.

Where nazi ideology belongs...

The Ukraine on the other hand is a country and needs to find a way out of the gutter and some way forward... it seems when push comes to shove the west only wants to get the Ukraine into a fight with Russia for its own entertainment... I don't expect their current government to wake up but next election perhaps some parties that realise that better relations with Russia are essential for the Ukraine to recover.

Here is how I summarize the results of the video-meeting:

What Putin gets:
- Promise that NATO will not expand Eastward
- Promise that there will be no sanctions on NS2
- Promise that Russia will not be cut out from SWIFT

What Biden gets:
- Promise that Russia will not invade 404

What country 404 definitely gets:
- Less military assistance and weapons
- No Russian gas transited after 2024
- Independence... and a feeling of being "thrown under the bus" if above promises are broken

Basically, Putin maintained the status quo which means:
- Relative peace (important for Russia's development)
- Further degradation of 404's economy

Not bad for a day's work for Vladimir Vladimirovich.

And when you consider that an unprovoked Russian invasion was never on the cards and was only something the west made up itself then Russia got what it wanted and the US got nothing at all.

That's a speech for domestic public. Must feed the americans with propaganda once in a while or they die.

They are well aware that US won't move for Ukraine but must play the strong guy with cheap talk.

The standard to become a senator is not that high, and there seems to be a high quotient of nutters doing that job... remember that bimbo from Alaska that Tina Fey was so good at pretending to be... I can see the Russians from my house...

That level of stupid.

And of course the media will give them a voice...

And the Russians play their part in the play - always the same. When will the loop break? It appears not in my lifetime at least.

What are you dribbling on about?

Russia and the US have not been speaking... now they are. Because HATO kicked out Russian diplomats Russia closed its office with HATO so there is no communication with HATO except through the media.

This is all a natural consequence of not being able to talk... but you see it as a defeat for Russia... Putin folds again...

Grow up.

I'll summarize the last 10 or so pages of discussion: "If Ukraine is going to attempt to take the LDNR by force, Russia is going to respond*"

The 'West' has no leverage on Russia anymore. Russia has resources - they do not. Everything else simply requires time to re-create.

All the cards are on the table... the west fears Russia will invade and do a bit of regime change in the Ukraine to undo their coup... and will react violently if they try, but have said if Kiev tries to take the Donbass by force they will not help them with that. Russia has said it is not interested in attacking the Ukraine but if Kiev does something stupid then it needs to be prepared to intervene if needed. Kiev has said they think they can take the rebels but know they can't if the Russians help them.

The first video meeting with the US, Putin said Russia was not going to invade the Ukraine without provocation.... note Biden didn't say Russia already has troops in the Crimea and the Donbass which the US considers the Ukraine... funny that...

Now they decide they need another meeting... and Atlasclub claims Russia is folding and the west has won again... which is strange because really not much has actually changed... it is still all down to Zelensky and if he is stupid enough to cross the red line of attacking the Donbass region or not... he now knows Russia will get involved if he does and he also know HATO wont get involved if he does.

Sounds like on balance he wont.

I guess that's one way to make good PR

No complaints on my end

With his current rating he needs a win...

I'm surprised they didn't learn from Georgia's experience.

Or Afghanistan...

Case is not closed. USA are still sending weapons to fuel the war in donvass and nato still pushing for helping Ukraine. They won't stop until Russia attacks, they are like parasits.

That is just kickbacks to the US MIC... the US taxpayer gets to pay for that stuff and the Ukrainians get to use it against Ukrainians... the US does not care.

Of course some of it might be sold to groups for top dollar too on the black market and another fire might destroy the evidence that half of what was there was not there...

Well the thing is that Russia won't attack

Why the hell would they? Everything now works in their favour

They never had any intention of starting anything... that was all in Americas head.

This is why USA and EU want Russia to attack, current situation where Russia just has to sit on it's ass and get everything it wants doesn’t suit them

But what the EU and US want doesn't change the fact that that is the situation.

A- Country 404 attacks and tries to conquer/subdue Donbass:
In which case Russian forces will intervene in a number of possible fashions, including:
- Stand-off strikes with missiles and air-power and allow DNR/LNR regain the remaining parts of their oblasts, followed up with official Moscow recognition of the 2 Republics
- Continue to march and liberate the rest of Russian speaking south and east (Kharkov. Odessa etc.) and divide 404 into 2 (Novorossia and Banderistan)
- March into Kiev and establish a pro-Russia government there that will transform Ukraine into a loose federation of semi-independent Oblasts

Agree but think only the first option is likely... Russia didn't regime change Suckarse milli vanilli, and I doubt he wants to save Kiev.

I think it would be exactly the same as South Ossetia or even different in the sense that the Donbass forces wont need Russian troops and it would be more like Russian special forces and air power supporting Syria government forces against terrorists, and when the fighting is over like in South Ossetia they will recognise the new region as not being part of Georgia (Ukraine) any more and open diplomatic channels and trade with these new regions... which will help their economies enormously... without charity or freebies...

B- If country 404 is given NATO membership and/or NATO establishes bases there:
This is an absolutely unacceptable trespassing of Russia's redlines. It causes an immediate danger to the motherland. Russia will launch a war that is far more dangerous than any of the above confrontations.
NATO/USA know this, they are not stupid or suicidal. That is why they have not tried to get NATO into 404 despite all the request of the junta in Kiev.

I still don't think Putin would invade, I think he would just openly state Russian theatre nuclear weapons are going to now be aimed no just at the Ukraine, but also Brussels and London and Bonn and Paris and completely cut Ukraine off because there is still trade going on there.

Some nuclear armed Zircons in Kaliningrad, and other measures like banning HATO countries from using the new northern sea route they are creating.

Everyone needs to remember what they were saying 2 weeks before afghan escape.
They were not leaving , then they were flying with allies hanging off wheels of airplane.

The added irony of leaving men behind, but if they try to get to the EU via the border of Belarus and Poland then it is an invasion and provocation by Putin to destabilise the EU....

How do you talk to such people?

GarryB wrote:

Everyone needs to remember what they were saying 2 weeks before afghan escape.
They were not leaving , then they were flying with allies hanging off wheels of airplane.

The added irony of leaving men behind, but if they try to get to the EU via the border of Belarus and Poland then it is an invasion and provocation by Putin to destabilise the EU....

How do you talk to such people?

It's tough because they act themselves with no seriousness, and without slightest bit of self respect when talking.

But they do have many nukes, so Putin does the responsible thing and speaks like adult to the babies.

And what do you know? Hes pretty good at calming the kids down. Biden is saying no US troops in Ukraine, and no R2P of Ukraine. See that was not so hard ? They lost all credibility, but at least they are starting to pass from 4th stage denial to acceptance. They could not do anything in afghanistan, and they certainly are giving up in Ukraine.

404 is probably reeling from all this and any attack they ever dreamed of on donbass is never going to happen. I have no idea why people even think zelensky the clown has the guts to do it .

Poroshenko himself ran to sign minsk and that was probably the closest 404 ever got to having advantage on offense. the clown was never going to attack Donetsk. Just more political theater out of the circus in DC.

First question of all...

Why should Russia invade Ukraine? Did something change in Ukraine??? The economy of Russia is on the run, with a surplus of nearly 5 %, former states of CCCP coming back under the umbrella of Russia (not only Belarus).

On the other side it's the last chance for the USA to contain and destroy Russia (with economic tools). In 2022 it will be too late for USA to harm Russia in any way. So USA is provoking the conflict. They can do it and they do it, they ship weapons to Ukraine, they garrison troops there (little by little)...and doing it with a kind of salami tactic, slice by slice. The actions of USA are under the international radar, so that no action itself could be condemnd but all actions together is not only a provocation but a real danger to Russia.

Russians and Ukrainians are ONE! There is a slight difference in langauge, but to be true some asians from Far Siberia are definite less "russian" than Ukrainians and part of RF. There are good people...honest, smart and warmhearted on the other side like all slavs very naive. Why are the Ukrainians then so nationalistic? Because they are fed every day by lies and misinformation of their "elite". Their elite is paid directly by Washington and London, these are the real traitors of Ukraine. Like this clown ruling the country with his offshore accounts! Ukraine has a good economic potential if it is connected to Russia. The guys in Washington know this, that is why they acted in Ukraine...it's not about missiles aiming at Moscow! It's about the future of Russia and it's neigbours. The real Potential of Russia is unleashed, when it's economy is combined with Belarus and Ukraine...not necessarily in a single country but even a trady union.

---

The conflict now offers a chance to Russia to solve the conflict with Ukraine once and for all! Now military (I would do this instantly) or during the next months economical. The possibility for a military conflict is from my own estimates around 90 %....because Washington tries to cross the red lines of Moscow. And Moscow is ready to act, the troops are not a show of force...they have real battle groups ready to act in hours.

So guys keep your ears open...if Washington is ready to talk, it will be no conflict. If Washington is stubborn and that's really realistic because of distraction of inner problems and their plan to contain Russia...a real conflict is very likely.

PapaDragon wrote:

Isos wrote:......Case is not closed. USA are still sending weapons to fuel the war in donvass and nato still pushing for helping Ukraine. They won't stop until Russia attacks, they are like parasits.

Well the thing is that Russia won't attack

Why the hell would they? Everything now works in their favour

404 is still going down the shitter, winter is biting down, Nazis are polishing lamp post for Zelensky, gas money has never been better and even NS2 is still on track

This is why USA and EU want Russia to attack, current situation where Russia just has to sit on it's ass and get everything it wants doesn’t suit them

But you know that USA can provoke in any way it wants!? Give Kiew Patriot system and why not MGM-140 ATACMS (in USA money for weapons is no problem, they just print it)...in Ukraine they will feel like superheroes, unvincible with super powers smashing Moscow. Garrison 1000 US troops!? Why not? They are of course no soldiers, they are democracy observers with guns and tanks! The easiest way of course tell the Ukronazis to shell Donbass.

Russias red lines could be crossed easy and fast! And then Russia must react, if it don't reacts it is the signal for all Russia haters all over world to move out of their shit holes at the same time.

The leverage of the WHOLE conflict in Ukraine is in Washington not in Moscow! They worked 20 years with their propaganda...historians, sociologst, politologist writing and claiming utterly complete bullshit...to seperate ALL former CCCP countries from Russia apart. For example Timothy Snyder he writes about the holocaust and of course combine it with Russia. After the propaganda don't forget the money, the Ukrainian Elite is completly buyed by USA.

Washington decides if it will be war in Ukraine

If it was that easy, they would have done it already. As Medvedev said, Russia has all the time in the world to deal with this issue. As time is on their side.