Talking bollocks thread #4

Post  GarryB Today at 11:57 am

I think what you are trying to say that it is not just what you know but more who you know that allows you to get on in life.

Sure it is, nihil novi sub sole.
Yet it is slightly more complicated in my opinion.
Nobody is surprised by the fact, that a doctor family is much more probable to deliver a new generation of doctors rather than a family of construction workers.
The same applies to lawyers in some aspects.
It is much easier for them, for multiple reasons. Nepotism? Would be one, if someone is pushing a medicine career for a youngster who can't remember the names of the bones you have in your hands.
But mostly the fact that kids grew up soaking some knowledge, life choices, and standards.
Is the fact that parents knew some of the med school teachers helpful?
Of course, it is.
Is it fair?
Well, you need to name what "fair" means, first of all.
The kid will benefit from the consistency and right choices made by their parents, and himself.
Most of my military friends' kids continue careers in the ranks.
Most of my doctor friends' kids go to medical schools.
Most of my lawyer friends' kids go to law schools.
I know one case when kids get running at a full-swing company worth some $30mln as a wedding gift - yet they both worked in it for years. Starting from the lowest ranks, and by the time the gift was granted, both already managed it and made a fantastic expansion to the Russian market, all by their own.

But the oligarchy is the one that built the regime and law systems, or at least twisted them to its benefit. Ultimately you're going to have to untwist it, and that's what Putin did in the 2000s, and what it seems he's going to do some more of now.

The structure of any state, its laws, etc.. is not separate from that of its class structure, but follows on from it if anything

With political will however, its possible to gradually change the economic system, and reduce the power of the oligarchy and its ability to monopolize capital. Really, this happens naturally in every country anyway to some extent, with economic growth, which leads to the rise of wealthy groups below the oligarchy, in the middle ranks; what was in previous times called the petit bourgeois, but also includes the lesser bourgeois proper as well. Because these sorts of people, and new money in general, tends to resent oligarch control and the policies enacted to maintain such - not much less than the common masses. Oligarch-drafted rules and laws hamper them. They need less opaque schemes and oligarch nepotism; and more rule of law, property rights, and transparency for their types of businesses to prosper. I'm talking about small business owners, property magnates, IT company founders, financial market investors and specialists, etc..

It's in the most undeveloped countries, that you find the largest wealth gaps and the greatest monopolization of wealth by oligarchies, and where said oligarchies control everything.
In the most advanced capitalist economies, such as those in Europe, you do find oligarchs, but whose influence in society is milder and afforded powers are milder than that of the Arab sheikhs or past Russian oligarchs. You also find upper classes stemming from old money and old monied dynasties who retain their privileges, but don't bear too much influence in wider society.
You find a greater amount of rich people occupying the middle ground between the middle class and the filthy rich people though.

I predict Russia now evolving towards aspects of this European style capitalism on the one hand, which it has been moving towards over the past decade or so anyway, while moving simultaneously towards Soviet-style state capitalism on the other hand, also employing China's experience in such; which again it has been doing more and more of for the past decade or so anyhow.
So a sort of fusion of both things.
Neither of these is socialism BTW, although both are called socialism colloquially often.

What is the case here is the fact, that systems differ much between the countries, no matter if called the same.

All ex-comm countries don't have developed wealth structures.
Just a narrow number of oligarchies established themselves in times of system changes.
And you know what? It is perfectly normal, and there is no conspiracy behind that.
Party elites were well educated, with waste contacts, and relatively wealthy.
Is there any surprise that they were the ones who benefited from the system change?
You have money, you have the knowledge, and you have contacts.
It is all that is needed for a successful business.
As easy as that.
Who made the biggest leverage? Well ... the socialist trade unions or trusts, or whatever those were called.
They had fantastic access to both sides and could benefit from the radical PPP switch.

Who else?
Well ... thugs & gangsters. Existing in any country. When faced with the opportunity and timely weakened power structures ... Warp Six, Mr. Spock!

But 30 years has passed. We talk about the third generation of people who could operate in a stable economic environment - so the processed that were visible in the Germany in the 70s started to develop in some of the ex-comms.

There is no conspiracy behind it at all

It's pretty well documented that how the COMECON economies collapsed, and how public assets were divided up and transferred, served the interests of just a small group of people who went on to then own all this stuff and impoverish everyone else.

And that it was the same group of people, or those who worked together with them in the government for reasons of mutual enrichment, who then went ahead and drafted all these new constitutions, drew up the new flags, codified all these new laws into place and re-orientated higher education to just producing lawyers and economists, with the brightest sent to Western universities, and the best of the now unemployed scientists and engineers themselves emigrating to the West. Because you know, there was no need to educate any other professions.

And you're telling me that the problem is with the 'instability of the regime and law system'
Well yeah, that and the oligarch class that created it all. But I agree that it's possible to improve the state so that oligarchial influence drops off, and this is what's being done.

Of course when it comes to nepotism and all of that, it existed the same way in the socialist era too. Oligarchs didn't invent it.

hey guys, i have been gone for three weeks. and propably will be for a few weeks more.

It is not that i got bored or tired with the topic of the Ukraine war.

But i have become unexpectedly an father to an four-legged furry son that is 5 months of age.
An sobaka

i live alone, and in the past i have mentioned to fammily and friends i really missed the company in house of an dog after the sheperds and husky's i have owned but sadly passed of natural causes eventually

Someone recently approached me with an story,background and information on a dog that was in a bad spot, but had a very bright future if acted upon soon if he got a good home to grow up in.

He comes from far eastern europe. saved from the streets when he was just born with his litter.
since it is an public forum i do not want to post an picture of him.

I do not want the charity to get into any kind of trouble because of my odysee activities.
But imagine an mini-belgium malinois the size of an corgi with floppy ears and you get the picture.
he even has the same appearance and fur-type.

i had both sheperds and husky's, and while corgi-sized. he definitely is an shepard in character.

the last 5 months, his entire life he only has known the Charity kennel with his litter.
so after the multi-day journey to western europe he has have a hard time getting used to his new home with me.

He's terrified of new sounds, does not want to go for walks yet and carefully explores his new surroundings. So far he is afraid to be alone as well.
My work has been very understanding and allows me to work from home a lot of times so i can minimize the time he's alone at home. they even offered i can take him to work.

I try my best to make him as comfortable as possible. I sleep downstairs on the couch the last 4 weeks, am sleep deprived as he still needs to get used to an sleep schedule and wakes me up a lot during the nights. etcetera .

he still takes leaks inside the home at times, but at least i got him already to take his dumps outside. so it is everyday a small win with what he gets used to.

I am writing this from my couch, SteamDeck as a monitor and wireless bluetooth keyboard in my lap as he is sleeping next to me in the early morning hours.

so, this all comes at the cost of my hobbies/activity's.

my sobaka first needs to be house-trained and stop demolishing the furniture before i can return to my regular activities.

some damage to wooden furniture i can replace is OK, But if he starts chewing up my computer cables and RGB lighting i willl have real nightmares. not to mention i do not want 230 volts running trough my Puppy.

He's amazingly friendly, happy and wants to play all the time. go everywhere i go and when he wants to sleep he wants to do it pressed tight against me. it is hard to get mad at that.

so I am still alive, but currently occupied raising my corgi-sized MaliGator from Eastern Europe.
I think anyone that has an child can understand the stuff i am going trough now lol.
Sleep deprivation, attention consumed with whatever he tries to stick in his mouth next.
balancing parenting behavior and expectations....just trying to be an good parent......

Take care everyone, eventually i intend to return here
i first need to raise my four-legged furry kid.

I suspect a repeat in the nukes as with the conventional subs.

The Lada class have similar or better fire power than the Kilo class which are already pretty damn good, with a smaller displacement and half the crew, with better sensors and likely better processing power.

Anti sub technology has always been very computer processing focussed so the new subs will essentially be super computers in their own right which makes new subs expensive but very very capable.

I rather suspect they are looking at the future Husky type and thinking that will be sophisticated and capable but also more affordable and better able to be serially produced.

The Yasen and Borei are excellent but the limits on the number of nuke warheads limits the number of SSBNs they are allowed to have.

Members complain that there are only 12 or 16 missile tubes on a Borei, but when the max warhead allowance is just under 1600 warheads then each branch is limited to about 530 warheads each and with 6 to 10 warheads per missile that means 8 Boreis will have too many with 12 launch tubes each and 6 warheads per missile... 576 warheads... with 16 launch tubes and 6 warheads per boat they would have 768 warheads, and 16 launch tubes with 10 warheads per missile you would have 1,280 missiles on your subs.

The US has most of their strategic nuke weapons on subs, but Russia traditionally had them on land based missiles.

So 12 missiles per sub but more subs makes sense... if you put 24 missiles on each sub, not only would the subs be much bigger and rather more expensive, you could only have four of them.

I actually think having 10 missiles on each sub with SLBMs would be better and the new Boreis with 16 tubes could carry all sorts of drones or vertical launch SAMs or conventional land attack cruise missiles or hypersonic anti ship and attack missiles in the 6 spare tubes.

That would give you about 480 strategic SLBMs on 8 subs which would be about right with the majority of missiles on trucks or in silos.

With all their subs and even their corvettes able to carry potent anti ship missiles the need for an Oscar type SSGN is passing, and I would predict that in the future even the Yasen class subs will carry a variety of missiles in its tubes unlike the Oscar that only ever carried shipwrecks (SS-N-19).

Which is not to say later on they wont need SSGNs, but they need other ships right now more urgently.

Further on this, i think it would be advantageous to develop an insertable module to fit a Bulava launch tube that would carry tactical missiles instead of strategic nukes.  Bulava is ~12m in length and 2m diameter, while something like an Onyx is ~9m in length and 0.7m dia.  A canister could conceivably hold 4x Onyx (or Kalibre, or Zircon, or Otvet).  

Russia could build additional Borei-M and kit some out as tactical boats, or as GarryB suggests, fit all strategic Bories with 2-4 canisters with anti-surface and ASW missiles for self-protection.  Let the Orcs of Morgoth ponder which is which...

Unless the US goes through some really traumatic collapse I can't see them agreeing to new strategic arms treaties that don't add Russian and Chinese weapon numbers together, which neither Russia nor China would accept, and I rather think they will want Poseidon and Thunderbird included in the list of strategic arms but equally they refuse to include UCAVs as strategic weapons so a large UCAV could carry a dozen small nuclear warheads and be designed to fly 15,000km or double that on a one way trip but isn't a strategic weapon?

I can see Russia wanting French and British and Israeli nukes to be included with US weapons too, which they wont accept either.

So no replacement deal for the current deal that is currently suspended.

The potential for putting different weapons in the launch tubes of SSBNs is very interesting, they showed on a future sub design what appears to be a central arm launcher for launching long narrow UUVs that are stored in a ring around the central extendible arm, so 6 long narrow UUVs which can be extracted and launched and presumably also caught and recovered by a central arm... once you have that design you could adapt it to SAMs like S-350 or S-400, or just fill the entire tube with an S-500... a flat AESA array pointing directly up could detect objects in space like US spy satellites for interception from any of earths oceans if they wanted....

Flat AESA arrays on each side of the conning tower on the sub could give excellent air coverage for a very small RCS object in the middle of a very big ocean... passive use of radar and other listening sensors and passive equipment like IIR could determine directions to briefly look for threats without emitting large amounts of energy... a 2m wide launch tube is huge and you could pack a lot of smaller missiles on different layers in such a launcher.

With the SS-18 I believe there is a large hockey puck shaped booster to blow the missile out of the tube in a cold launch... a side facing rocket then launches it sideways clearing the tube, so presumably it does not damage or block it falling back in. It would be a useful partition for layers of smaller missiles in a tube...

An old sub like an Akula class (HATO speak = Typhoon) could be converted to carry all SAMs and offer an air defence platform of unlimited endurance and significant capacity... especially if you take out the launch tubes for SLBMs and replace them with all SAM array grids... Shtil and S-350 and S-400 and S-500 tubes... the S-350 tubes would include 9M100 short range self defence missiles but if a swarm is coming it can submerge and move.

A couple of reactor powered laser turrets around the conning tower would increase the number of targets it could deal with at once.

Getting a bit off topic...

Serbia already had an alignment towards China, the non-aligned movement during the Cold War. They didn't manage to do much for you fellas in the end other than have their embassy absorb some bombs, which was even less than what Russia did.

Just be straight with us and admit that you're ready to follow Vucic in preparing his anus for NATO

PapaDragon wrote:How is your anus after getting double teamed by Bulgaria and Romania?

Again

Who?

Anyway I can assure you all is fine here. Sipping my coffee doing a little programming. Don't have to worry about any NATO or their lapdogs.
War's going fine too despite your misgivings. We can take it easy while NATO's raging to try and knock us out in one blow somehow.

I appreciate Serbia's in a tougher position, but you can just be a little more honest with yourselves is all I'm saying rather than trying to cloak your rationalization sessions

The fleet of surface warships is no longer for the further sea zone. On the other hand, Russia, at least on paper, has more than 20 SSN/SSGN submarines, and a country the size of Russia should have more, but by all accounts, further reduction of this component is inevitable.

By all accounts?

Name two.

Yes, project 20380 corvettes have solid weapons but not much because they are small ships and also don't have enough range.

They are Corvettes and don't need range or endurance... they are not supposed to sail the world righting wrongs and saving the day.

And while the project 22350 frigates can be said to have more than a solid amount of lethal arsenal, the sailing range of these ships is not enough either.

They are Frigates and they build some and tested them and decided to modify them with more missiles and more endurance with the new 22350M design... and when they test that they can decide whether they want to make the original ship design in large numbers or the new improved model in large numbers... they will likely end up with 30 or more of such vessels split between three of their fleets... I can't see them wanting lots of big ships in the Baltic Sea as it is a dead end HATO bottleneck.

Experience with the Frigate and the upgraded and improved Frigate will allow them to get the design for their new Destroyers right, which will likely be nuclear powered and electric drive ships and then Cruisers will be on the cards which likely will also be nuclear powered.

The Russians have problems with the delivery of diesel engines for small missile ships of project 22800 and 21631.

The diesel engines were German and the Chinese engines they bought as a stopgap were awful... which suggests all those Chinese ships might not be perfect and when the west starts to impose sanctions on China their western supplied components are going to cause them serious problems too.

You can't just flick a switch and have modern mature diesel engines or gas turbine engines you can put into a ship without problems, so of course there will be delays... in fact I would say the real problem would be if there were no delays I would be suspicious about the quality and performance of the new Russian ships.

They are using all sorts of state of the art technology that they are developing and implementing themselves... of course it is taking time.

Frigates of project 22350 have been under construction since 2006 and in 2023 only two ships are operational. THERE IS NO EXCUSE FOR A COUNTRY THE SIZE OF RUSSIA NOT TO HAVE GAS TURBINES FOR ITS SHIPS AND ONLY NOW TESTING THEM.

First of all stop shouting.

Second of all plenty of countries don't make the gas turbines they use in their own ships and if their current source suddenly stopped supplying them then there would be a gap in delivery of ships there too.... you don't just have to set up production but you also have to supply spare parts kits to keep existing ships with existing Gas Turbine engines running too.

This is a gift in disguise... the Ukrainian engines were made on ancient technology by monkeys who didn't give a shit... new Russian engines will be better just because they will be made of modern materials and improved designs, but the ships that really count... the new Destroyers and Cruisers will be nuclear powered so that really wont be a problem.

The future is electric motors... whether a diesel or gas turbine or nuclear reactor supplies the electrical current does not matter.

Ukraine is doing them a favour.

But it takes time.

The Russians did build idiotic "doves of peace" in the form of project 22160 "Vasily Bykov".

Which again reveals your ignorance... not only is it a valuable ship... a long endurance Corvette that can be used for roles that more expensive ships like Frigates and Destroyers would be used for in the west for policing... it can also be used for commercial shipping escort duties to scare western pirates like the British Navy and the French Navy and the US Navy from trying to steal from Russia or her trade partners.

Started building in 2014 and completed the first ship in 2018, they planned 6 ships and have built four already... that actually sounds rather good work to me.

On top of everything, the Russians also ordered two Arctic patrol ships of project 23350. A mess, a complete mess.

Why?

Most of their coastline is in the arctic ocean.

YOUR OPINION IS THOSE SUBMARINES ARE GOOD WHILE I THINK THE GERMAN TYPE-212 SUBMARINES WOULD BE MUCH MUCH BETTER.

Our opinions don't matter... German submarines are not available to the Russian Navy so your point is irrelevant... what sort of supersonic antiship and hypersonic anti ship missiles does that German boat carry BTW?

And then there is the basis, which is that none of the 3 countries with nuclear weapons in the West USE diesel-electric submarines; neither the US nor the UK nor France.

Because no one is threatening them so they don't need defensive subs, they only need ATTACK subs to attack and murder and kill and steal.

Amazed you have not worked that out yet.

Russia MUST continue building new SSN/SSGN submarines, but Russia is clearly incapable of building at least 20 such submarines in less than 25 to 30 years.

They already have plenty, and their Lada class SSKs will be rather more valuable than any SSNs or SSGNs they might have because they can operate in shallow waters and are actually quiet and rather more manouverable and can carry the same types of weapons the nuke subs carry... for a fraction of the price.

On the other hand, the USA has already announced the construction of over 80 SSN/SSGN submarines. And what now, you will write to me as I quote you "Russia does not need more SSGN submarines".

Hahahaha... good... I hope they make it 100 subs... what difference do you think it will make to the safety and security of the US with all those subs.

How many carriers of theirs are actually operational... their navy is in the toilet... more subs wont fix the problem... they are heading towards a cliff and buying 80 new SSNs is just pressing the accelerator pedal and closing their eyes.

1. The Russian military is a ground army, air defense, helicopters, cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles and coastal systems, as well as hypersonic weapons and nuclear weapons. That is all..THIS IS THE ONLY WHERE RUSSIA IS UP TO THE TASK

If the task is the destruction of the west then Russia is fine because the west is doing it to itself.... whether Russian has 10 SSNs or 100.

2. Russia does NOT have good aviation and an example of this is the effort to preserve 3 factories because there was not enough work for export; Su-34 (NAPO), Su-30SM (IRKUT), Su-35S (KNAAZ). And what is the result of all that, that is, the production of these three types of aircraft in the past 10+ years? Only slightly more than 360 to 370 aircraft of all three types were produced.

They are not HATO and their air defence is not based around aircraft alone. They have an IADS network and aircraft are a serious part of that.

The Ukraine actually had the worlds most formidable air defence network besides Russia and perhaps China and maybe Iran, and Russia has eviscerated it.

They have done a better job than HATO probably could have.

4. THE MOST CRITICAL; Russians talk a lot and the results are weak. VICTORY PARADES 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 - a total of 8 at which we also saw T-14, Kurganets-25, as well as APC "Boomerang". If you ask me, the USSR worked smarter, that is, build a tank and mass-produce it and only then "parade" it. The same applies to the Su-57, Il-112, Il-276, etc. etc.. Lots of talk and bad or weak results.

The Russians are interested in exports and joint production and development, but most of all those parades are celebrating the defeat of Nazi Germany and the fact that Russia is still a country that makes it own decisions and is independent... no country in Europe can say the same.

5. And while most of you are talking about "how the Chinese are copying everything"

Everybody copies... America didn't invent the wheel... for fucks sake they didn't even invent the language they speak...

I know again that China imported the Kilo class submarines but today they are building submarines with AIP propulsion.

There is no evidence the subs they make for themselves are better than the Kilos they bought from Russia.

Making submarines is complex and difficult, most countries can't do it.

And you will all write "Yes, the Chinese bought 24 Su-35S from Russia", but Russia has barely 10 Su-57 (flew as a prototype one year before the J-20) while we know how many J-20s China has.

You don't really know anything about either aircraft, but if making them in large numbers impresses you then that is just sad.

As a Serb, I admire the Chinese,

There is every reason to admire the Chinese, my personal experience is that they are a honest and hard working group of people... here in New Zealand a lot of Chinese arrived when we had a few gold rushes and we (us european white pricks) treated them like shit... we even charged them a chinaman tax to come here... how racist is that!!!

They remain some of our best citizens.

I have no problem with the Chinese at all.

plan, order and discipline in implementing the plan.

23 years from total economic and moral collapse to taking on the entire west and not just surviving but actually growing and developing and expanding ties with the rest of the world to try to help them break away from the west too and you think there is no planning or order or discipline.

Maybe the problem is you?

The hilarious thing is you think making some SSNs and SSGNs will fix everything... I mean obviously such vessels are first priority for Russia at the moment because Zelensky would fold immediately when he hears 10 SSNs have been laid down for production this year....  

There was never a point in history when Russia had anything resembling a plan

The Serbian tag team of doom and gloom strikes again...

Is the solution get rid of Putin still?

In any case, I am of the opinion that the sanctions against Russia will have an additional negative impact on the export of Russian technology and the increase in the export of Chinese military equipment.

So what, but if you think the west will block Russia from selling weapons and will let China sell them in their place you don't understand the west.

They are blocking Russian sales so they can sell their own shit.... Rafales and F-35s... which they can't sell when Su-35s and Su-57s and soon Checkmates are available for a fraction of the price of western products...

The reason for this is the US sanctions against Russia and the threat of sanctions against potential buyers of Russian weapons.

So... who cares?

Countries don't want to buy Russian stuff then let them buy American stuff and see how that works out for them...

* Under construction since 2006; Russia has two operational project 22350 frigates and is currently testing a domestically produced gas turbine on the "Golovko" frigate. The question arises WHY RUSSIA WAITED FOR 2014 AND WHY IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE DISSOLUTION OF THE USSR, it did not work on designing its own gas turbines.

Waa waaa waaa... they waited until they couldn't buy Ukrainian engines because if they started making their own before that the Ukraine would have turned to the west even faster, and besides Klimov and Saturn were already busy making other engines and developing new engines... why waste money and energy trying to make engines they already buy from another country?

* SSK; Whatever anyone writes here I am of the opinion that the project 636.3 submarine is outdated and is the oldest non-nuclear submarine design still in production. The Russians can hang "Zircon" and "Kalibr" and whatever, but those submarines are no longer a technological miracle.

Diesel electric subs are so dangerous the US Navy begs HATO countries with SSKs to train with them so they can learn to deal with such subs in the real world.

Most of the time they get their arses kicked by the SSKs and that is out in deep water where SSKs are at a disadvantage.

The essence of my messages is one thing and ONE thing only - REDUCE the financing and production of ALL possible projects EXCEPT those produced by SEVMASH.

Bollocks.

Tanks and artillery shells and drones and anti tank missiles are vastly more useful to Russia right now than SSNs or SSGNs will be over the next 10 years.