Russian special military operation in Ukraine #8

ucmvulcan wrote:

flamming_python wrote:While Russia has redeployed its forces from Kherson, and some from around Kiev and Kharkov - to closing the Donbass pocket

No news on Mariupol all day, far as we know the Azovites are still chilling in the Azov Steel works

It smells like a deal may be getting put together

The Ukro-Russian talks are scheduled in Turkey tommorow I think

The Azeri provocations in Karabakh are part of it, to put pressure on Russia (Iran has already said it would intervene to protect Armenia in response),
as is the French-Turkish-Greek mission to evacuate the Azov battalion from Mariupol,
Ukrainians have pulled up a large number of forces to the Kherson-Nikolayev regional border, which may be part of the pressure, or more likely - the deal

Russia may get LNR/DNR recognition, and a neutral Ukraine. Maybe taking Kherson as well and Melitopol, and it would get its side of the story told as well in Western media as evidence has been put together and there are journalists on the Russian side from European countries as well (although not from any mainstream media). And possibly sanctions relief and a release of its funds, in return for part of those funds being used to rebuild the Ukraine via contracts for European companies.

But overall I don't like it. Especially if Kherson, Melitopol are given up, that would a great betrayal, as well as the settlements around Kharkov that accepted Russian forces.
Another big problem would be this myth of great Ukrainian resistance that would be used to cement the Ukraine as an anti-Russia.
I don't think the war should have been started, but at this point there's no turning back. Putin and his staff miscalculated a lot of things, but what's the alternative now. The regime has to be toppled and the state rebuilt.

As much as I hope for peace, that deal is not going to lead to lasting peace.  NATO will be in Ukraine within weeks to rebuild Ukraine and then provocations will be launched to restart the war and not one damn sanction will be lifted.  Putin is dealing with a snake that wants to destroy him.  The Russians have to get control of the country to at least the east bank of the Dniepr before any talks with the Zelensky regime can be started.

Yes quite right

Russia will have to keep turning territory to co-operation with them, and trying to get Ukrainian servicemen to surrender. It's a hard process, and there will be more casualties.

But the regime is doing a lot to make itself look as the bad guys, and the infowar on Ukrainian territory is slowly, slowly starting to bend in favour of Russia away from the nationalist Ukrainian one.

It's now or never. If Russia folds, the Ukraine will be lost forever, Moldova too, Armenia will drift to Iran, Central Asia to China, and there will be instability on its territory

I think they will only calm down when they see Russian tanks in lviv. They they will listen.

Scorpius wrote:

auslander wrote:

Isos wrote:Ukrainians shooting on captured russians !! Graphic video.  

FFS, pleae put a cognizant link for a video. I don't have and will never have twitter, shchmitter, shitter, whatever. Either that or I'll just put you on 'ignore' for useless bovine scatology and be done with it. I can get all I want but you, in theory, make it easier.

Already on YouTube.

I do not allow, I have never allowed, abuse of any kind on prisoners. Once the weapons hit the ground and arms are raised they are no longer enemy soldiers, they are prisoners. Discipline in my Kompany was iron, you shoot a prisoner and I will shoot you. Fortunately I never had to do this.... but I would have and my soldiers knew this fact. My officers would have said not a word, they for 35 years trusted my judgement. Can I do this today? Yes. Will I do this today? Yes, if I have to. What are they going to do to me? I am old, I am foreign, at least of the moment, I am the 'crazy foreign officer who is nuts'.Works for me and keeps 'them' guessing which is never a bad thing.

I spoke to someone about the conflict today. British person.
He was all "Putin is terrible, those poor people".

So I said "Do you know who the people support where the Ru troops are?"
He got it wrong.
I said "What do you think of Azov?"
He replied "Who are they?"
I said "They're openly Nazi, they destroyed the democracy and took over all the organs of power, police forces, military, ministries, nearly all of it. Human rights groups are outraged. Like Hitler before he became chancellor".
Then I said "Do you realise Russian language and political parties are banned, thats half the population of the so called Ukraine?"
He replied "Oh I don't think its anywhere near half. They had 30 yrs to move to Russia if they don't like it".

Needless to say, my actions following this were rather more blunt.

But it shows 2 things.
1)British people are incredibly ignorant and stupid.
I say that as someone half British (and half Russian) but British born.

2)Russia could probably do more to educate people, esp given that the Russian case is overwhelming.
Its 2022 and we do have an internet. Its not the 1940s where u'd have to airdrop leaflets.

A simple serious of websites of varying degrees of depth.
Together with citation sources for the more deeper delving amongst people.

https://t.me/voenacher/13230

Ukrainian mortar team riding around on a DHL delivery van

Arrow wrote:Let them take control of the Kherson region for now.  It is the Ukrainian army that is taking over the territories after the withdrawal of the Russians.  This Russian operation is starting to look very strange.
https://twitter.com/StJavelinUkr/status/1508070909365661700?t=cQKnPNugcZ55AOhMxR5JUg&s=19

That's the village they took control of I think

Or that's just the Nikolayev region where the Russians withdrew from

An officer of the Ukrainian marines in Mariupol who tried to dress up in civilian clothing and escape was interviewed

https://t.me/wargonzo/6377

He claims that the Azovites put all the regular Ukrainian army on the front-lines and themselves held back.

So as to prioritize their own lives, and if other accounts are to be believed, prevent desertions or the Ukrainian regulars surrendering too. There's a lot of that in Ukrainian units apparently, nationalists making sure the grunts stay in line

It's necessary to create the conditions for their safe surrender in future ops, and encourage them to rebel against their nationalist supervisors if they're threatened.

Indeed humane treatment of prisoners of war is part of that. The other part is not labeling all Ukrainian servicemen as Nazis, and not trying to destroy them all in their barracks, or exterminate them all with artillery, airstrikes if they're not in combat.
I keep saying this and I'm repeating it again. You have to separate the fly eggs from the dough. In the same way as you separate Ukrainian conscripts, and professional militarymen w/o nationalist indoctrination - from the extremists, you will also separate the Ukrainian people from their regime. But no-one says that it's an easy job.

But if they do engage in combat, then they should be destroyed on the battlefield or routed, there can't be any lost battles. And there shouldn't be any dumb retreats like from those around Nikolayev, over some dumb political calculations. That just raises the morale of the enemy and gives ammo to its infowar campaign about beating the russkies back, only leading to more Ukrainian soldiers fighting rather than surrendering.
Putin is a shmuck.

Although there has been some criticism, the campaign in Ukraine is going very well for the Russian army so far. Some losses were avoidable but nobody is perfect and mistakes happen. One must also not forget that there are two theaters of war and Ukraine is only the sideshow. The main war takes place in the economic sphere between the entire West and Russia. Russia has done incredibly well in the theater of war. One indicator of this is the relatively strong ruble exchange rate combined with the ingenious decision to link gas sales to the ruble. You can expect a ruble stronger than before the war in the coming weeks and months.

From my point of view, the campaign in the Ukraine was at least successful. However, Ukraine creates small gains in territory and they can be very dangerous from a psychological point of view. Not the mythical encirclement at Kyiv but the small gains at Kharkiv and Mykolaiv. They give the Ukrainians a false sense of hope and give the meat grinder more meat with it. The Ukrainians and Ukrainian army should feel sheer hopelessness, as hard as it may sound now. From a tactical point of view, it might be wise to lure the Ukrainians out of Mykolaiv and later fight them in the open field. From a strategic point of view it is not so good because more cockroaches are being motivated and recruited in western Ukraine.

The Russian army doesn't field conscripts and I fully understand that because they have poor morale and the images of captured conscripts are always more negative than those of professionals. On the other hand, you can just use the conscripts to secure the conquered hinterland and to ensure the humanitarian supply of the people. It would be nice if Russia would have a few more soldiers on the front lines in Ukraine to pick up the pace.

Another point are the goals of the mission, which will soon have to be communicated very hard. Ukraine as a state should be dissolved. So far there has only been talk of the two new republics, but the people of Kherson, for example, would be betrayed if they withdrew after the mission. Ukraine is so extremely anti-Russian and has gotten even worse that we have to expect genocide here and elsewhere. Russia must go all the way to western Ukraine and denazify the heap of dirt, after which the Ukrainian state should be dissolved and the entire east should migrate to the Russian Federation. Unfortunately, Ukraine is now a Western project and must be destroyed as such.

I do hope the current 'focus on the Donbass' is a ruse

This Ukrainian 'counter-offensive' has been hyped up by Western media for a week now

Russia may just be playing along until the negotiations, or just before them.

At which point the trap will be sprung. Redeployment of the Kherson grouping back again to storm Nikolaev immediately in co-ordination with a VDV landing at the airbase there, marine landing in Odessa region, the cratering of the Azovites at the Azov steel works, the rush of the new group in Belgorod forward to Kharkov and the storming of Kharkov without having encircled it first, the closing of the pincer around Kiev

That would make sense and give the NATO planners a real headache, because at the moment they think they have Russia figured out.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

Arrow wrote:Ukraine has confirmed that it will accept neutrality but is to be guaranteed by third parties.  Probably this guarantee will be provided by NATO troops. :lol:As I wrote.  Ukraine will never be neutral.

Yeah, that's kinda not being neutral lol....

Once russians finish their operation they will be neutral.

Firebird wrote:2)Russia could probably do more to educate people, esp given that the Russian case is overwhelming.
Its 2022 and we do have an internet. Its not the 1940s where u'd have to airdrop leaflets.

A simple serious of websites of varying degrees of depth.
Together with citation sources for the more deeper delving amongst people.

Your 1st and biggest mistake is thinking that western sheeple (especially Anglo-Saxons) fed on a steady diet of mainstream media and government-sponsored propaganda give a crap about Russian culture, history or geopolitical concerns. They don't know and more importantly, they don't want to know.

Werewolf wrote:If you are referring to what he said about POW and how POW should be treated accordingly to Geneva convention, then I would take his side.

Not that at all, I'm in full agreement that Russia shouldn't torture captured orcs even if they deserve it, they have to hold themselves to a higher standard than the lower lifeforms they're working to tame.

Scorpius wrote:

auslander wrote:

Isos wrote:Ukrainians shooting on captured russians !! Graphic video.  

FFS, pleae put a cognizant link for a video. I don't have and will never have twitter, shchmitter, shitter, whatever. Either that or I'll just put you on 'ignore' for useless bovine scatology and be done with it. I can get all I want but you, in theory, make it easier.

Already on YouTube.

Thanks! PM sent.

flamming_python wrote:I do hope the current 'focus on the Donbass' is a ruse

This Ukrainian 'counter-offensive' has been hyped up by Western media for a week now

Russia may just be playing along until the negotiations, or just before them.

At which point the trap will be sprung. Redeployment of the Kherson grouping back again to storm Nikolaev immediately in co-ordination with a VDV landing at the airbase there, marine landing in Odessa region, the cratering of the Azovites at the Azov steel works, the rush of the new group in Belgorod forward to Kharkov and the storming of Kharkov without having encircled it first, the closing of the pincer around Kiev

That would make sense and give the NATO planners a real headache, because at the moment they think they have Russia figured out.

I think the situation around Nikoleav is a trap for ukrainian troops. Russian troops withdrew and were not defeated on battlefield. This leads to a situation where experienced Ukrainian soldiers are found on the flat field and not in the shelter of a big city. I, as a armchair general, would do just that before an attack haha.

Zelensky gave an interview on Russian mass-media
While Arestovich, the Kiev regime functionary, is talking about how Russian troops are being beaten back to everywhere outside the Donbass

Basically all the appearances are, are that Russia is serious about a deal

But then, before the war, all appearances were that Russia wouldn't invade (other than the troops at the border that is)

So..
I'm still going to go for the sudden Russian counter-offensive on all fronts theory

A pro-Russian administration has just been set up at Energodar. Ones are working in Melitopol, Kherson, Berdyansk and a bunch of small towns.

While Zelensky is talking about Russia retreating to the borders before 24th February, with neutrality, non-nuclear status, and a discussion on the Donbass issue being promised, as well as rebuilding of the damage done in the Ukraine.
He'll be disappointed I think. But for the moment, they're letting his hopes bloom.

flamming_python wrote:Zelensky gave an interview on Russian mass-media
While Arestovich, the Kiev regime functionary, is talking about how Russian troops are being beaten back to everywhere outside the Donbass

Basically all the appearances are, are that Russia is serious about a deal

But then, before the war, all appearances were that Russia wouldn't invade (other than the troops at the border that is)

So..
I'm still going to go for the sudden Russian counter-offensive on all fronts theory

A pro-Russian administration has just been set up at Energodar. Ones are working in Melitopol, Kherson, Berdyansk and a bunch of small towns.

While Zelensky is talking about Russia retreating to the borders before 24th February, with neutrality, non-nuclear status, and a discussion on the Donbass issue being promised, as well as rebuilding of the damage done in the Ukraine.
He'll be disappointed I think. But for the moment, they're letting his hopes bloom.

Jeebz.
Which fucking media was that interview given to? Meduza and Dozhd'.
Thats enough said right there.
People honestly working out money paid to them.

Straight out of the Nazi textbooks.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

flamming_python wrote:I do hope the current 'focus on the Donbass' is a ruse

This Ukrainian 'counter-offensive' has been hyped up by Western media for a week now

Russia may just be playing along until the negotiations, or just before them.

At which point the trap will be sprung. Redeployment of the Kherson grouping back again to storm Nikolaev immediately in co-ordination with a VDV landing at the airbase there, marine landing in Odessa region, the cratering of the Azovites at the Azov steel works, the rush of the new group in Belgorod forward to Kharkov and the storming of Kharkov without having encircled it first, the closing of the pincer around Kiev

That would make sense and give the NATO planners a real headache, because at the moment they think they have Russia figured out.

This would require the Russians to deploy much more troops and those troop moves would be noticed

I'm sure they are noticed, the Western media is just running with the invincible Ukrainian resistance line

But Russia is good enough at maskirovka. Make one thing look like another. I think some surprises are in store.

Arrow wrote:Ukraine has confirmed that it will accept neutrality but is to be guaranteed by third parties.  Probably this guarantee will be provided by NATO troops. :lol:As I wrote.  Ukraine will never be neutral.

This was basically what happened in the 1990s. And what happened? This vile atrocity against Russian people... and Romanian, Hungarian speakers etc.

It promised to accept other languages as equal. It promised to respect the Minsk agreement. And not have Nazi juntas in place. ANd respect human rights. ANd not try and get nukes etc etc etc ad infinitum.

An agreement with Banderites can never ever be possible. Its like asking a crocodile to babysit your kids.

My agreement is the vermin that caused all this should be bombed to hell. Literally.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

flamming_python wrote:I do hope the current 'focus on the Donbass' is a ruse

This Ukrainian 'counter-offensive' has been hyped up by Western media for a week now

Russia may just be playing along until the negotiations, or just before them.

At which point the trap will be sprung. Redeployment of the Kherson grouping back again to storm Nikolaev immediately in co-ordination with a VDV landing at the airbase there, marine landing in Odessa region, the cratering of the Azovites at the Azov steel works, the rush of the new group in Belgorod forward to Kharkov and the storming of Kharkov without having encircled it first, the closing of the pincer around Kiev

That would make sense and give the NATO planners a real headache, because at the moment they think they have Russia figured out.

This would require the Russians to deploy much more troops and those troop moves would be noticed

I highly doubt the russians are going for such play, Look at how long Mari is taking.

Kharkov is much bigger and the Ukies are WELLLL dug in there with huge amount of forces

But no-one expects Russia to seize the city with a blind zerg rush and no encirclement

Well I dunno. Anything can happen.