No one really knows the goals and/or mission of the Russian forces in Ukraine. There has been a degree of speculation on this, though ultimately that is what it remains - speculation. For example, the vast majority of videos from Ukraine originate from FSVNG, DNR, and LNR units. We rarely see videos from SV, SpN, PVO, VDV, or VMF (unless they originate from RuMoD). This has created a 'fog of war' to outside observers (duh) and we are forced to heavily rely on Telegram/Twitter users to regurgitate information they themselves read someone (Only a few are primary sources of the information they provide).
The lack of information on the objective and status of the conflict has caused a problem in many discussion forums. People started to invent their own justifications for what is happening. This, combined with a warped view of armed conflict in general (and especially the state of equipment, be it Western or Eastern), has led to some really wild speculations and finger-pointing among many people here (Couch-generals ahoy). For example, a user holding a strong belief that a particular type of equipment is invulnerable (wunderwaffe) is shocked to see it destroyed out in the field. Then, after the shock subsides he decides it is due to the 'incompetence' of the troops operating the equipment of the general staff of the army completely ignoring that, perhaps, his initial belief of invincibility was not correct.
Before the war started, the VSU had the following equipment (approx. estimates): >1000 tanks (T-64's, T-72's, T-80's), >4000 APC/IFV (various models), >300 MLRS (BM-21's, BM-27's), ~100 SRBM's launchers (mostly Tochka), >500 SPG's (various), ~200 000 active military personnel, and >600 00 reserve military personnel. Compare that to other European countries (i.e. Germany, France, United Kingdom, Poland, Czech Republic) and you'll realize that before the war Ukraine was one of the bigger military powers in Central Europe. A lot of users here (unfortunately, myself included) did not understand this before the conflict started.
The reason why the Russian Federation calls this a 'Special Military Operation' (SMO) is, in my opinion, because they do not consider this a war. They have not called up their reservists, that make up large chunks of their unit formations (Sidenote: In general, people do not realize how modern Russian Ground Forces are structured. Beyond specialized units, most require reservists to fill the rank and file). They have not announced general mobilization. Instead, they are using limited SV, SpN, VDV, VMF, and PVO forces and are making heavy use of FSVNG (mostly Chechens) and DNR/LNR forces to do the legwork. I believe this is evident based on the videos we receive from Ukraine.
They have successfully pushed the conflict away from Russia and into Ukraine. From there they can escalate to whatever degree the military and political leadership of Russia deems sufficient (People tend to be complacent with w/e is happening, as long as the effect is not felt domestically)... and that is that. Of course, the SV, SpN, VDV, VMF, PVO, FSVNG are going to have losses in equipment and personnel. It's war (duh). However, personnel can be replaced, the equipment can be replenished by modernizing reserve stock or building additional units and doctrine can be changed to accommodate modern combat situations.
To this day, nothing that would constitute a national tragedy has happened. Domestically the situation is calm and people are supporting the SMO. There were no land losses to the VSU. The current equipment losses are acceptable. Personnel losses (at least, according to RuMoD) are minimal (Sidenote: Let's be real, no one in Russia gives a rats ass that some Chechens or DNR/LNR guys die fighting as they haven't for the last 8-years of the conflict). The economy, despite heavy financial sanctions, is holding strong (some might argue they'll be better off once all of this is over). Their strategic partners haven't been dissuaded by the operation (namely India and China) and they're going to find new partners to sell their energy resources to.
So what is the problem?
Certain people (You know who you are) need to be more truthful with themselves and admit you know **** all about anything related to military or war. Leave it to the professionals out in the field and watch it all play out over a 3-6 month period. Won't need to make a lot of predictions then.
Last edited by nero on Sat May 07, 2022 5:15 pm; edited 3 times in total
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Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.
High-precision, long-range air-based and sea-based weapons at military airfields near Artsys, Odessa and Voznesensk have destroyed Ukrainian Air Force aviation equipment, including unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as air defence equipment.
In total, 154 aircraft and 115 helicopters, 764 unmanned aerial vehicles, 296 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,902 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 333 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,378 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,728 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.
Fresh summary of Snake Island:
