Russian special military operation in Ukraine #15

Scorpius wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

Scorpius wrote:

JohninMK wrote: Well Moscow is only 3 months into its foray into the Ukraine and the lowest estimates show they have lost around 15K troops, its still the honeymoon period , but when the Russian public start to wake up to the fact that they have lost so many of their fathers, brothers and sons then expect outrage.

Please tell this person a few facts:
1. Rumors about the alleged 15,000 KIA among the Russian armed Forces are nonsense. By all my estimates, this figure is at least three-five times too high.
2. Russia lost 16 thousand people in road accidents in 2020 alone. No one noticed it.
3. Over the past 2 years, Russia has lost 370 thousand people from coronavirus. The United States lost about a million for the same reasons. Has anyone noticed these losses?
4. Even if we imagine that Russia has lost 15 thousand in 3 months, Russia has another 265,000 military personnel only in the ground forces, plus an unknown number of civilians who are in the "hot" mobilization reserve (probably several tens of thousands). At this rate, Russia can freely afford a continuous war for at least 5-6 years without replenishing the loss of personnel. Taking into account the fact that the population under the age of 18 in Russia is now 22.4% - in the next 5-6 years, about 30 million people will reach the age and competence to conduct combat operations, among which at least 300 thousand will definitely be able to become combatants.

If I am not mistaken Moscow confirmed its self a few months back they lost around 4k, so saying the figure is 3 or 5 times to high is immense BS, your figures are beyond wrong

BS - these are the statements that you give here. At the end of March, the Ministry of Defense made a statement about the number of losses in Ukraine: it was 1351 KIA and 3825 WIA. March 25 is 30 calendar days away from February 24. March 25 is 48 calendar days away from May 12. Even if we ASSUME that the intensity of losses did not decrease compared to the first days of the military operation, then in the period from March 25 to May 12, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation could have suffered losses in the amount of 2,162 KIA and 6,120 WIA. The total total from February 24 to May 12: 3513 KIA and 9945 WIA. Thus, there is no question of any "losses in three months of war in Ukraine are higher than in 10 years in Afghanistan". The losses of the USSR in Afghanistan have long been known: 15031 KIA and 53752 WIA. And I say this with an effort not paying attention to the fact that the comparison with Afghanistan is an impudent distortion, because there is absolutely nothing in common between these two operations.

flamming_python wrote:There have been 18 servicemen confirmed KIA in Yakutia as of 1-2 weeks ago. Yakutia is a pretty middle of the road region regarding security services and military participation. It's a far-flung Siberian province with considerably above average salaries but a miserable climate and sparse infrastructure.
Anyway, Yakutia has a population of nearly a million
Now lets take those 18 and add another 4-5 to represent those MIA, whose fate the Rus MoD cannot confirm but who are in fact killed (artillery, their bodies having being buried by the Ukrainians themselves somewhere, taken prisoner and killed, or whatever)
Now let's also add another 2-3 to assume that the figure of 18 is only for the MoD (I don't know this for sure), but that there would also be losses among Rosgvardia, FSB on vacation, or volunteers in Kadyrov's units
So 18 + 5 + 3 = 26
Now we have to work out the co-efficient of Yakutia's population to Russia's as a whole.
Going by the 2018 estimate it has 964,330 people, while Russia per the preliminary results of last year's census has 147 million people.
So 147 million/964,330 = 152.4
Now we take the 26 and multiply it by 152.4 to get 3962.
This 3962 is the KIA figure for all of Russia extrapolated from the Yakutia results and some generous allowances for unconfirmed killed and KIA in other branches. I'd say this estimate tends towards the upper bound. In reality, the KIA can be anything from 3200-4200 or so right now.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

If I am not mistaken Moscow confirmed its self a few months back they lost around 4k, so saying the figure is 3 or 5 times to high is immense BS, your figures are beyond wrong

ALAMO wrote:

flamming_python wrote:There have been 18 servicemen confirmed KIA in Yakutia as of 1-2 weeks ago. Yakutia is a pretty middle of the road region regarding security services and military participation. It's a far-flung Siberian province with considerably above average salaries but a miserable climate and sparse infrastructure.
Anyway, Yakutia has a population of nearly a million
Now lets take those 18 and add another 4-5 to represent those MIA, whose fate the Rus MoD cannot confirm but who are in fact killed (artillery, their bodies having being buried by the Ukrainians themselves somewhere, taken prisoner and killed, or whatever)
Now let's also add another 2-3 to assume that the figure of 18 is only for the MoD (I don't know this for sure), but that there would also be losses among Rosgvardia, FSB on vacation, or volunteers in Kadyrov's units
So 18 + 5 + 3 = 26
Now we have to work out the co-efficient of Yakutia's population to Russia's as a whole.
Going by the 2018 estimate it has 964,330 people, while Russia per the preliminary results of last year's census has 147 million people.
So 147 million/964,330 = 152.4
Now we take the 26 and multiply it by 152.4 to get 3962.
This 3962 is the KIA figure for all of Russia extrapolated from the Yakutia results and some generous allowances for unconfirmed killed and KIA in other branches. I'd say this estimate tends towards the upper bound. In reality, the KIA can be anything from 3200-4200 or so right now.

This is a very good beginning but can be easily spoiled.
Yakuts can represent a higher percentage of armed forces personnel.
Nothing bizarre, for pre-war Poland, the Tatar population was overrepresented in the Polish Army by a factor of 3 if I remember.
I suppose that very same can be applied to Buryats, Yakuts, and a few other Russian nations. Like Chechens.
Anyway, I consider the figure about the same level.
Data spread among the western public are pure bullshit.

Firebird wrote:
The Donbass republics would have a higher loss ratio than Ru Fedn soldiers. Probably because they are very aggressive vs the "wait it out" tactics of the Fedn troops.

ALAMO wrote:

Firebird wrote:
The Donbass republics would have a higher loss ratio than Ru Fedn soldiers. Probably because they are very aggressive vs the "wait it out" tactics of the Fedn troops.

Well, considering that there are hundreds of civilians dead in both republics, they don't have the privilege to "wait it out".
We talk about their wives, parents, and children dying there.
They will be aggressive and push forward.
I am actually surprised how humble they behave considering the last 8 years.

flamming_python wrote:Just the amount of cruise missiles, artillery, bombs being arrayed at them every day

You can go by the Rus MoD reports of what has been taken out by every morning and evening, but honestly you don't have to

In Mariupol alone they've lost some 5-6k
And here we have not only Mariupol, but the Kharkov area, Kiev area, Sumy & Chernigov, the Donbass, Kherson & Nikolayev, strikes against Odessa/Lvov/Dnepro and across the country

Regular wrote:

flamming_python wrote:Just the amount of cruise missiles, artillery, bombs being arrayed at them every day

You can go by the Rus MoD reports of what has been taken out by every morning and evening, but honestly you don't have to

In Mariupol alone they've lost some 5-6k
And here we have not only Mariupol, but the Kharkov area, Kiev area, Sumy & Chernigov, the Donbass, Kherson & Nikolayev, strikes against Odessa/Lvov/Dnepro and across the country

Doubt 70k even with injured/missing teroboron at this point.

There was no another Mariupol yet and those cruise missile strikes rarely target Ukrainian formations and just wreck infrastructure, usually at night when collateral damage is minimal.

Battles so far seem to be sporadic and still small in size.

Not saying this number is not possible in near future, but so far, there isn't much going on such a scale.

Firebird wrote:
But there have been quite a few barrack strikes killing 200,300 even maybe 500 at a time.
Aren't Ru MOD claiming 300 or 350 or more Banderites killed per day?
Plus if you look at 2500 bits of Banderite military heavy equipment lost, isn't the general rule of thumb up to 10 troops per heavy vehicle.
This would all suggest serious Bandera-shite losses.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:How many troops are going to be freed when Azovstal  falls?

JohninMK wrote:M777 starting to appear

Ukraine Weapons Tracker
@UAWeapons
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#Ukraine: We also can get a brief look at what ammunition is being used with Ukrainian M777A2 howitzers - M795 and M549A1 RAP projectiles with impressive ranges of 22.5 km and 30km+ for the latter due to the presence of a rocket motor.





https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524474300874604545

VARGR198 wrote:

https://twitter.com/NovichokRossiya/status/1524692422508388352