Russian special military operation in Ukraine #18

11E wrote:

Broski wrote:For anyone wondering what the long term solution to the Ukraine and Europe would look like on one map...

J

Hé, were is my country, the Netherlands Did they just bomb the dikes and waterworks and gave our land to the sea? Even the Baltics and Denmark are allowed to survive

Didn't you get the memo? You have been downgraded to a cheese and tulip factory
Gods dis geweldig!

Mariupol, June 2022.

Cleaning-up efforts continue, both by locals and by MChS.

new Banners in Lugansk.

the loading bar with "Denazification" is my favourite

Ok I finally got updated.

Summary of the past 3 days, week, analysis, overall situation, reports on casualties... lots of reading

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/06/12/noticias-de-la-guerra-12-06-2022-informe-especial/

Just decided to post some random vids from Russia's ongoing "genocide"/"terror"/whatever.


Supermarket in Kherson today (griven is still accepted it seems, but no shortages that I can see, looks fine compared to UA-held Nikolaev nearby...):


Little "Russia Day" (June 12th) concert in central Kherson:


By the way, I read somewhere yesterday that 5-6k deserters in Kherson had applied for Russian military service. Didn't catch the source tho so could be bogus, anyone else heard it?

Sujoy wrote:Ukrainian forces using French-supplied Caesar howitzers to target Russian forces

The only novelty this French garbage brings is the automatic gun laying, which is only ever useful if you have rookie artillerists who can't do their own surveying. Apart from that, it does virtually the same thing as any Soviet SPH. Some wunderwaffen this is.

Russian special forces in Kherson battle ukrainian troops



RF troops both have to take in Ukrainian troops that want to surrender and fight those that refuse to.

I am glad that at least Russians be it, socialists, nationalists, and everyone apart from liberals are on the same page. You even see imperialists shaking hands with communists now. I don't think I have ever seen Russians more united, western response backfired.

By the way, check this assessment on Sky News. No wonder West has no clue what is actually going on...  

Pushilin saw no reason to pardon mercenaries convicted in the DPR

https://ria.ru/20220612/dnr-1794896890.html



https://ren.tv/news/v-mire/986984-pod-severodonetskom-likvidirovan-britanskii-naemnik-vsu

Weather: Severdonetsk -1 of course he wasn't a merc no no. He was only helping.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/12/former-british-soldier-jordan-gatley-killed-fighting-russian-forces-in-ukraine

Weather: Severdonetsk -1 of course he wasnt merc no no. He was only helping.

Looks like he quit UK military on March, it wasn't some dusty war veteran. I am no conspiracy theorist, but it does look fishy.

Regular wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/12/former-british-soldier-jordan-gatley-killed-fighting-russian-forces-in-ukraine

Weather: Severdonetsk -1 of course he wasnt merc no no. He was only helping.

Looks like he quit UK military on March, it wasn't some dusty war veteran. I am no conspiracy theorist, but it does look fishy.

officially he was an instructor... who knows how many are till there to denazify? I hope Chechens will catch the whole bunch of merc scum who killed the Rosgvardia  commander. Alive, one by one.


Akhmat Sila:russia:

owais.usmani wrote:

https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/status/1535893478772727809

Something will happen very soon

Western media:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/a-judgment-day-is-coming-for-volodymyr-zelensky

https://www.stalkerzone.org/peace-treaty-for-ukraine/
There will be no peace treaty, according to the author. Mood in the Kremlin and the public is against it.

Ispan wrote:Ok I finally got updated.

Summary of the past 3 days, week, analysis, overall situation, reports on casualties... lots of reading

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/06/12/noticias-de-la-guerra-12-06-2022-informe-especial/

War news 12/06/2022 - special report
12 June, 2022 Zhukov

Brief summary from June 8th to 11th:

Map: https://kot-ivanov.livejournal.com/

The Ukrainian army tried to attack in the area of Davidov Brod (Nikolayev region). Attempts to force the Ingulets River ended with the destruction of infantry units that passed the river. The remnants of the attacking group are scattered throughout the forest areas in the area with Bielaya Krinitsa. The risk of repeated attacks still remains.
The struggle continues for control of the Bakhmut-Lisichansk highway. There is a Russian breakthrough in the area of Kamyshevakha and Toshkovsky (near Gorsky).
After a relative truce, probably caused by heavy losses during the expansion of the bridgehead, the pressure on the defensive lines of Ukraine in the direction of Slavyansk resumed in the Izyum area.
The news about the capture of the Severodonetsk airport is still premature, since the surrounding villages are still in the hands of the enemy.
After the capture of Sviatogorsk, the Sviatogorsk Lavra was liberated, almost without a fight, and from Tatyanovka on the southern bank of the Sev.Donets River. What is it, if not a miracle?

Summaries of Readovka

9 June

https://readovka .news/news/100348

10 June

https://readovka .news/news/100504

11 June

https://readovka .news/news/100573



Detailed reports - Slavyangrad

Forced change of speech

https://slavyangrad.es/2022/06/12/24802/#more-24802

Losses and foreign supply

https://slavyangrad.es/2022/06/11/24794/

The battle is approaching Slavyansk

https://slavyangrad.es/2022/06/10/24785/#more-24785

The road to Slavyansk - summary of the offensive

https://telegra.ph/Doroga-na-Slavyansk-06-10

Week in review: Liberation of Svyatogorsk and growing Ukrainian losses

https://topwar.ru/197585-kratkij-obzor-sobytij-svo-na-ukraine-za-poslednie-dni.html



General situation of operations - personal interpretation



Kharkov Direction: After the Ukrainian advance towards the border, the Russians counterattacked and the front has stabilized again on the northern outskirts of Kharkov

Izyum: The Ukrainians have forces on the other side of the river and periodically try to cross the river to attack the flank and supply line of the Russian 20th and 35th armies, but Russian artillery destroys those attempts.

The battle of the Donbass salient continues slowly, as the terrain favors the defender

To the west of the salient the obstacle is the forests and lakes north of Slavyansk. From Yampol to Severodonetsk is the course of the Seversky Donets River. Lisichansk is at a dominant height, and only in Popasnaya a wedge has been driven into the salient, but the populations of Artemovsk to the west and the agglomeration to the east prevent widening it. To the south the Svitlodarsk reservoir is also an obstacle that until it is left behind will not allow a continuous front. And finally, in the Donetsk-Gorlovka sector there is the obstacle of the Avdeyevka fortifications and that the enemy as in Barvenkovo not being inside the salient is not so pressured and can reinforce its units.



Slavyansk: From Izyum faced with the impossibility of advancing to the south-east towards Barvenkovo to cut the salient by the base, due to enemy resistance and minefields, the Russians turn southeast towards Slavyansk, but this forces them to cross an extensive wooded area of the national park

A bridgehead has already been achieved in Svyatogorsk, and the Seversky Donetsk River can already be forded at several points, but it's one thing to cross it, and it's another to build a bridge for supply trucks to pass through. From Slavyansk to Severodonetsk the front is for now stabilized, although the river does not pose a major obstacle.

At the Severodonetsk end: with the sending of reinforcements and the taking of hostages the Ukrainians cling to the industrial zone. To the southeast of the city the Borovskoye airport has been taken, but the surrounding villages have not yet been cleared, they have not yet managed to align the front with the river and tighten the siege of Lisichansk.

To the south of Severodonetsk is a salient or pocket within the salient, the Kamisevakha-Zolotoye-Gorskoye, the Ukrainians are tenaciously resisting to prevent it from closing from the east and from the west, the forces that took Popasnaya are now trying to take Vubrovka.

Central front: from Zaporozhe to Donetsk unchanged. Every village is a fortress and the Russians lack the means and will to break the front here, it being their mission to fix troops.

Southern Front: Here after the cavalcade to the approaches to Odessa in the first days of the war, and the forces that came to constitute blockades south of Krivoy Rog, the Russians retreated and maintain an extensive front supported by the tributaries of the Dnieper. All Ukrainian offensives from Nikolayev end in disaster, because the ground is open, but the Russians in their counterattacks have come a couple of times to bomb the outskirts of the city and then retreat. It seems that this front is so extensive that it absorbs all the reinforcements that have been sent through the Crimea, although it is possible that the Russians will concentrate forces and supplies for a future offensive to Odessa.

In terms of territory it seems as if the war has stalled in a positional war like that of the First World War, and the advances were agonizing and minuscule. But if the main goal is the destruction of the enemy army, as Clausewitz said, then the war is going favorably. The bulk of the Ukrainian army has been pinned down on the Donbass salient and is being crushed in a methodical battle of attrition.



Reports on Ukrainian losses and ammunition consumption

Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence, has said Ukraine is using between 5,000 and 6,000 artillery shells a day, and has "almost exhausted" its stockpile of Soviet standard 152mm shells. It now relies on NATO standard 155mm howitzers; it is unclear how many it has.

Comment: Assuming that Ukraine has 500 cannons left, that would give an average of 10 shots per piece per day. This also indicates the intensity of the struggle, as the statistics shows that only a minimum protection of the projectiles fired from the rifle bullets grenades barrel causing casualties, of less than 10%, and the artillery caused most of the casualties, the aggregate sum of the effects of artillery fire, mortars and light weapons, as this would indicate a loss of 500 daily low for the russians and allies among the dead and wounded, in the worst case.

As quoted in the Slavyangrad reports, the Ukrainian casualties admitted by the regime are about a thousand daily, of them three hundred dead, which confirms the statements of the Russian army that usually give that figure on average.

The ratio of own to enemy losses would be 1 to 2 for the Russians in the worst case, overestimating their own and underestimating the Ukrainian ones. The real ratio with certainty is 1 to 4 or 1 to 5 and increasing as the Ukrainians lose artillery, armored and formations of trained soldiers are replaced by forced cams. And only counting dead and wounded, if prisoners and deserters are added, the losses can be at least 20% higher.

All this, for me at least, is obvious, the significant thing is that in the West the Horrible Reality is already beginning to be admitted.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/ukraine-casualty-rate-russia-war-tipping-point

Also, another report

The British Independent, citing an intelligence report, provides a great analysis on the ratio of Russian and Ukrainian forces.

Ukrainian troops are 20 times inferior in artillery, 40 times inferior in ammunition and 12 times inferior in range.

The Ukrainian side has almost run out of missiles for the Smerch and Uragan heavy rocket launchers.

Ukraine still has Grady howitzer rocket launchers that can reach a maximum of 20-30 km.

Javelin anti-tank missiles and NLAWS were very useful in the first phase of the war, and they are still useful today, but there is no answer to Russian long-range artillery.

The Russians can attack groups of Ukrainian troops with missiles from many tens or even hundreds of kilometers away. There is a situation of "absolute inequality on the battlefield, not to mention the complete dominance of enemy aircraft in the air."Russian planes and helicopters are rarely shot down.

The "intense fighting" has a serious demoralizing effect on the Ukrainian troops, so the number of defections among Ukrainian soldiers is growing.

The Russians are well aware that the amount of heavy weapons sent by Western countries is still quite small and comes to the front slowly. So they try to use their (overwhelming) advantage while they have it.

After a series of prisoner exchanges, Ukraine has 550 captured Russians left, while the Russians have more than 5,600 Ukrainians left, and Moscow is demanding a 1:1 exchange. Note that, according to the statement of the Russian authorities and the LDNR, more than 7,000 people are being held captive.



Losses of the Donetsk Republic

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7669913.html#cutid1

Losses of the DPR army from 18.02 to 09.06.2022

The total since the beginning of the active phase of hostilities is 2,057 killed and 8,526 wounded. Total losses for 16 weeks – 10,583 people (that is, about 50% of the strength of the 1st Army Corps at the beginning of the year).

The average daily losses gradually decrease over the entire period and amount to:
- irrevocable - 18.5 people daily;
- injured - 76 people daily;

Which would give about 100 casualties a day, assuming similar casualties for the Russian army and the Luhansk Republic, that would give an average of 300 casualties a day and at least 1,000 for the enemy for the entire period of hostilities.

Lostarmour seems to me to be a reliable resource at least as far as material losses are concerned, or at least it was in 2014-2015. But in the comments there are critical voices who say that by relying on open sources it is susceptible to manipulation by elements hostile to Russia. I don't know where they get the data from, although from the sample I have seen of the DPR releases they seem plausible to me, although high. Some commentator says that the real losses must be between 1,000-1,500 dead and about 4-5,000 wounded.

the volunteer experience

ucmvulcan wrote:

Don't know about Florida, but if he lives, I see him taking residence in California and joining Michael McFail (spelling intentional) at Stanford University's Hoover Institute where he will give lectures and talks on regime change.  It sort of depends on how the oligarchs who tell him what to do want.  If they find him more valuable dead than alive he is dead, if they think he is better off on the guest lecture circuit he goes there.  Who knows, he might be hired to be a dictator for hire like Mikhail Saakashvili.  I laughed when the "anti-corruption" Maidanists made him governor of Odessa and I laughed even harder when he was removed because he was so corrupt that Poroshenko said he was too corrupt for us.  My guess though is that he is shot by a "pro-Russian" of some flavor because Ukraine wants to become a one party junta and the west wants to justify giving Ukraine even more guns.

Haha - I just saw McFail give a speech at a work conference... predictable shit.

Squirming, contortioning, kicking and twisting won't set free poor ole' Jen's off his straightjacket:

NATO Secretary General admitted the possibility of territorial concessions to Ukraine, 12.06.2022.

Peace in Ukraine is possible, the only question is the price, what territorial concessions it will cost Ukraine, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said.

https://ria.ru/20220612/nato-1794958946.html

So what's the final verdict on the belogorovka bridgehead? Did the Russians ever secure the opposite shore? Did they sustain heavy losses?
Are these losses the reason there was never a pincer movement to surround lisichansk and meet with the popasna pincer?

How do the Russians plan to surround lisichansk now?

Is the road through seversk still providing a lot of supplies to the Ukrainians? I read that the capture of the balhmut highway is inconsequential because of the road through seversk. I heard the Russians aren't interdicting it be ause the ukrs have too many manpads there and it's too far away for most Russian artillery.

Also, at this point, I don't really believe voenkotenok with this doomerism about every village being a fortress around gulyaipole, as well as his claim that somehow the Russians failed to capture barvenkovo because it's too well defended. There's simply no way Ukrainians can have trench networks spanning thousands of km of Frontline.

What's up with kotenok's doomerism that javelins and NLAWs are "still very effective"? Have they even been "very effective" in the opening phase?