Russian special military operation in Ukraine #20

limb wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:Too much time is being spent on talking about HIMARS. Biggest value to Ukraine is a real time intelligence data provided by US. Most likely, US has ramped up efforts in providing Ukrainians with real time data from recon satellites and planes. It also seems that DPR had some very big ammo depots in the rear, because they didn't expect them getting hit by Ukrainians. Their tactics will have to be changed as to size and locations of ammo depots. It will make logistics more complicated, bit nothing that can't be overcome. Also, command centers will have to be better protected (fully dug in).

Why are russian military tactics always reactive, waiting for a fuckup to happen and then fixing it? They had a month of forewarning that himars were coming.

Nothing to do with Himars. At least read what i wrote. Don't answer while starting from some preconceived point in your head. All these targets could be easily destroyed by number of systems. Surely you don't think they need GPS guided rocket to hit a factory from 50 kilometers away.
It all boils down to the intelligence US is providing.

"He said a plane had struck the building with rockets. AERIAL BOMBARDMENT WAS THE MOST PUNISHING, Dyma said. A plane had dropped a parachute bomb on their positions near Bakhmut, causing devastating damage. “They do not announce it but WE ARE TAKING HEAVY LOSSES,” he said. “WE NEED TO CLOSE THE SKIES,” he added, repeating a request that many Ukrainians make for planes and stronger air defense systems from Western allies to combat Russian aerial attacks."

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/07/nyt-ground-report-debunks-nyt-claim-of-strikes-against-ukraines-civilians.html#more

Wait a minute, wasn't the Russian Air Force a joke?

caveat emptor wrote:

limb wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:Too much time is being spent on talking about HIMARS. Biggest value to Ukraine is a real time intelligence data provided by US. Most likely, US has ramped up efforts in providing Ukrainians with real time data from recon satellites and planes. It also seems that DPR had some very big ammo depots in the rear, because they didn't expect them getting hit by Ukrainians. Their tactics will have to be changed as to size and locations of ammo depots. It will make logistics more complicated, bit nothing that can't be overcome. Also, command centers will have to be better protected (fully dug in).

Why are russian military tactics always reactive, waiting for a fuckup to happen and then fixing it? They had a month of forewarning that himars were coming.

Nothing to do with Himars. At least read what i wrote. Don't answer while starting from some preconceived point in your head. All these targets could be easily destroyed by number of systems. Surely you don't think they need GPS guided rocket to hit a factory from 50 kilometers away.
It all boils down to the intelligence US is providing.

It truthas nothing to do with himars. Its a general trend. Russians had 1 month to decentralise ammo depots before himars came. Yet they didn't.

limb wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:Too much time is being spent on talking about HIMARS. Biggest value to Ukraine is a real time intelligence data provided by US. Most likely, US has ramped up efforts in providing Ukrainians with real time data from recon satellites and planes. It also seems that DPR had some very big ammo depots in the rear, because they didn't expect them getting hit by Ukrainians. Their tactics will have to be changed as to size and locations of ammo depots. It will make logistics more complicated, bit nothing that can't be overcome. Also, command centers will have to be better protected (fully dug in).

Why are russian military tactics always reactive, waiting for a fuckup to happen and then fixing it? They had a month of forewarning that himars were coming.

EXACTLY!!!  

BRAVO!!!

Finally someone that understand the problem.

In wars you fight correctly or you don't fight.  Russian army knew NATO was going to continue arming ukraine , and that they have long range weapons too.. Those himars range is 300km -500km their latest ones.

So why Russia don't prepare from the very start , instead of waiting the shit to the fan ?
This is sheer incompetence , they stocking all their missiles in a warehouse in the open , if they knew
Ukraine could bomb it , if NATO supply them the  weapons for it.

If  Russia army had compentent generals , they will be planning from DAY1.. for a war with NATO ,and not just with Ukraine. And dispersing all this ammo depots , and with very small storage on each , and put them in bunkers  underground Should have been done on day one..  not wait their forces are fucked , for later they fix  things..

Same with the warship destroyed  from Russian navy , they should have taken all precautions from the very start.. Not allow the warships alone..to defend on its own ,versus NATO strikes on them ,through the hands of Ukraine military.

Incompetence .. this is all that i see from Russian generals..  The Russian soldiers are doing all they can , but in the end , the tactics and way they fight in on generals hands. This incompetence can be see how they were caught with pants down , when Ukraine began to strike Russian cities.. fuel storage sites.. Why they didn't they took precautions earlier to prevent that?  

Himars modified could very well hit near moscow city , in case people not aware..
So later no excuses in this forums for deep inside Russian strikes with himars . Because Russia is well aware of what this artillery can do.  And like i said.. that NEVER get tired of repeating.
For the only fucking reason , that Ukraine can freely use their artillery without consequences ,including himars.. is because the Russian airforce ,close air support is missing in action.. Is barely doing anything at all..  None of this artillery strikes could happen if Russian airforce was hours flying above Positions where Ukraine army have their artillery deployed. But they not doing that.. Because the Russian airforce have failed miserably in destroying  Ukraine air defenses too.  this is why you always see Russian airforce throwing  unguided missiles so much , from stand off positions .and then turn 180 degrees quickly ,scared for their lives.  

The real big elephant in the room , is the massive failure of Russian airforce in destroying ukraine air defenses.. this IS the real reason , why Russian military can count on their airforce for air support , and  why is so slow advacing.. Because the entire Russian airforce have been neutralized its efficiency , almost completely.    If All this fixed air defenses were destroyed , then Russian airforce could freely fly anywhere ,above Ukraine positions for hours and smash their artillery..

If this is how Russian army  fights in Ukraine , then god have mercy ,the day they need to invade a NATO country.. it will be million times worse for Russia ,with NATO airforces smashing russian soldiers positions.. and smashing russian artillery , as turkey did in armenia. Those S-400s bullshit records, will not protect Russia , versus NATO in a real war . Only Russian nukes deterrence  , is what makes  Ukraine with help of NATO ,not flatern to the ground Russian cities ,close to  moscow with himars .

This entire conflict have exposed the major weakness of Russian military .. they will need to go to the drawing board and transform Russian army airforce completely , into an effective one..  because in ukraine is scandalous bad, their poor performance.  allowing all this artillery strikes and drone strikes for long months on Russian positions on russian convoys and ammo depots with impunity.

caveat emptor wrote:
Too much time is being spent on talking about HIMARS. Biggest value to Ukraine is a real time intelligence data provided by US. Most likely, US has ramped up efforts in providing Ukrainians with real time data from recon satellites and planes. It also seems that DPR had some very big ammo depots in the rear, because they didn't expect them getting hit by Ukrainians. Their tactics will have to be changed as to size and locations of ammo depots

All i see is excuses and more excuses.
Intelligence alone don't win wars.. You need weapons that can do the job to to hit the places you need to win the war.. and HIMARS can that job..  What win wars is to have a very strong Airforce
and strike drone force that can do the job ,and hit artillery and air defenses left and  right.

IF Russia is well aware that NATO have many eyes in space , why they don't camouflage better their ammo depots?  or put them underground in strong bunkers?   Even mobile containers on the surface ,could be a major problem ,if they deploy thousands of fake ones as distraction all over Donbass and they constantly moved .  

something like this..



NO more excuses , simply Russian general staff is full of very lazy fat people ,that have no clue
what they doing. They have good weapons ,thanks to very good scientist , but not used correctly.

And go try to explain if you can , the sheer incompetence of Russian army ,allowing 2x mi-8 to enter in Russian airspace , bomb fuel depots and then return without a scratch in the paint.. then repeat the same thing for the next days with turkish drones..  This is pure incompetence.. nothing more and nothing else.. Fat generals ,with very low IQ.. not doing their job correctly in protecting Russia.
For an entire week , Ukraine was smashing Russian cities in main land.. and those super amazing S-400s ,S-300s ,and all other air defenses ,totally absent .

In fact all this "mysterious fires" in Russian military bases , mysterious accidents of top scientist that blow in thousands of pieces , working in last generation weapons of Russia ,would not be surprising are just strike drones from NATO that sneak deep inside Russian territory..  same with those "Accidents , with ammo detonation"  that sink Russia best warships..  Incompetence can't be hidden for long.


in summary ,there are lots and lots of ways , endless tactics that Russian military could do and is not doing , for pure incompetence of their generals..  to smash for once Ukraine artillery ,including himars and keep drones always flying above ukie positions.  You can't hide any artillery that is used from airforce,  it will be seen from 50km away the positions from the artillery can even been seen from space . the fire of the artillery is located with precision with infra red sensors. .

But intelligence alone will do nothing..  you need weapons to hit those important targets... Russia have the weapons , but they can't use them , because Ukraine tactics are better. Something that could be fixed , had Russian airforce was flying for  hours Right above Ukraine army positions.. to keep their heads low ,and those artillery quiet.  It seems Russia have very few strike drones left.. and can't monitor ukraine territory for long..

Russia should use those su-25 flying low and fast ,for surveilance of Ukraine army armor and artillery positions , and  deploy strike drones or kamikazi drones, when they detect artillery  , to smash Ukros artillery ,if so scared they are to use their manned airforce for precision ground strikes for fear of ukraine air defenses, then they can use drones or even smart missiles ,that hit  armor without human controlling it ,to do the job. Something like what british army have , in ukraine..  

Is not intelligence in the ground the problem , for Russian general staff . is the intelligence in their brains, that is not there yet ,when it comes to tactics and strategy. they simply want to do it all with artillery ,the soviet way.  

Belisarius wrote:"

Wait a minute, wasn't the Russian Air Force a joke?

Russian airforce close air support to protect their ground forces and cities is the joke , it doesnt exist.

Russian firing missiles from stand off far positions is the only thing they can do .
So yep is a joke.


-bombing a building ,that can be done by a cruise missile or artillery strike with precision.


-bombing moving targets is a different  beast , and intercepting moving drones before they guide artillery on  Russian positions  .This is where russia is doing very bad.


when it comes to excuses..  

-Mistakes is when people do something wrong , and later understand the problem and fix it.
-Incompetence ,is when does mistakes are not fixed and happen again and again and again.

The problem with Russian airforce is not mistakes ,but incompetence. It not competent enough to stop Ukraine artillery in the open in flat terrains , smashing their positions. They simply don't fly above Ukraine artillery positions, for fear of Air defenses.. What they doing is desperate use of unguided rockets from far away distances ,without visual confirmation of  what they hit , or firing at times long range missiles guided by  satellite.. But close air support ,adequate support doesn't exist.
For adequate close air support you need airforce or strike drones all the time flying above your military positions and enemy positions too. bombing those artillery and ballistic missiles.. hitting civilians and their soldiers.  So is not a mistake , is incompetence the Russian airforce problem.
Generals that have no clue what they doing.. and not using their airforce ,to suppress the enemy firing positions.

-it can't be expected that Russia air defenses can always intercept 100% of the missiles fired at them. specially if they fired too many.
-what can't be justified is why Russian airforce is not supressing the firing artillery positions of Ukranians, with their fucking airforce. or  Why they not shutting down ukraine drones , BEFORE they guide artillery towards Russian positions.

Providing manpads to all Russian soldies units ,and ask them to take down  those drones , can solve the problem and take down 95% of the drones that Ukraine is using.  the other 5% that fly higher altitude can be taken down by Russian airforce. IF... IF they were doing their job they are supposed to do ,in  covering their military forces from hostile fire  .

sepheronx wrote:Thanks JohninMK for that.

Yes, its true, LDPR are easy targets right now because of these systems.  But this is where I believe Pantsir's will be wonderful - as the gun (not so much missiles) can be quite effective against smaller projectiles coming en mass.

I have seen videos of pantsirs moving into LDNR as of recently so I presume the Russian's are gonna try to beef up the LDNR defenses on key areas.  Unfortunately guaranteed civilian structures will still be prime target for terrorism from Ukraine.

LDPR received some Buk-M1 few days ago. That's a decent upgrade from OSA systems, they now use.

JohninMK wrote:More realstic perhaps than Strelkov.

Dr.Snekotron
@snekotron
·
17h
Legitimniy explains what is going on with Ukraine and the HIMARS/M270.

1) It's good marketing for US weapons sales
2) Targets have generally been LDPR militia because they have less air defense
3) Air defenses are being beefed up which will limit HIMARS effectiveness in future

Nice Public relations /damage control wall of text..

The claim that now Russians will deploy air defenses in donbass is pure bullshit . because donbass was being hit day and night for 8 years.. so if there is a zone that had to be very well protected is Donbass by now.. and can't believe that it was all this time without air defenses..

Dozens of toscka misisles were hitting donbass ,and  Russia for months should have known they
need better air defenses for donbass..
SImply himars defeated Russian air defenses , and they can be saturated easily.

Now like i said , the saturation vs air defenses is a game that the offensive weapons will always win.
Still this is not excuse , because Russia don't strike firing positions of ukraine army with their very big airforce..  the airforce weakness is the major elephant in the room.   the reason why Ukraine can strike russia positions with impunity.. because airforce is not doing what is supposed to do , deny the use of artillery by flying over those positions.

ANyone that believe that himars could hit donbass so easily and bomb the hell of storage depots , because they dont have air defenses ,is lying. Russian main cities ,fuel depots are also being attacked and hit with precision.. with missiles ,strike drones and hellicopters ,so what excuse for that? how about the excuse of the sinking of the mosca destroyer? No good air defenses? or perhaps "accidental detonation of munition because of a storm?"
how naive people in this -All is Great in Russia military- forum can be.

sorry if it was posted already, but put simply every Ka-52's video is a military porn

Is it difficult to intercept Himars missiles?

DerWolf wrote:Is it difficult to intercept Himars missiles?

I was going to ask if a system like the Irom Dome is capable of intercepting HIMARS projectiles, and if so, what is its Russian counterpart.

Ned86 wrote:sorry if it was posted already, but put simply every Ka-52's video is a military porn

Talking about porn.

https://russian.rt.com/ussr/news/1024371-ukraina-zamministra-po-evrointegracii?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop



the new deputy minister of social affairs in Ukraine. she has some previous experience in consulting of hairdressers  and beauty parlors.
Some need head to run government some need to give a head too.






https://knowinsiders.com/who-is-anna-sergeeva-ukraines-25-year-old-deputy-minister-35289.html

PhSt wrote:

DerWolf wrote:Is it difficult to intercept Himars missiles?

I was going to ask if a system like the Irom Dome is capable of intercepting HIMARS projectiles, and if so, what is its Russian counterpart.

Even the best rockets for the HIMARS are purely ballistic type. People are running around acting as if Russian anti-missile defenses
are total crap and can't handle this. GTFO.

Mercouris is also spewing this crap where he keeps repeating that it will take some time for Russia to tune its interception ability.
This is total nonsense since the equipment is fully functional now. The only way that there would be "tuning" required is if there
was some super duper stealth coating on the HIMARS missiles making them "invisible" to Russian "radars". This gets us back to the
stealth wonder waffle fanboi masturbation all over again. Has anyone seen stealth and HIMARS munitions used in the same paragraph?

PhSt wrote:

DerWolf wrote:Is it difficult to intercept Himars missiles?

I was going to ask if a system like the Irom Dome is capable of intercepting HIMARS projectiles, and if so, what is its Russian counterpart.

Tor/pantsir can do the job against rockets. Against the missiles fired from himars, S-300/400 as well as buk and s-350 can do the job.

However against the rockets you would quickly run out of missiles. Tor carry 8 missiles mostly (can be 16 for newest variant but still not widely adopted) so if himars fires 12 rocket 4 will always go through.

AD aren't a credible option against MLRS even if you can shoot down the rockets. Thry can quickly overwhelm the AD. You need to hunt the MLRS with aviation. Thry need a shiton of armed orions flying the front. Himars are limited to 70km so when yse they will always be 70km max from the frontline. Artillery radar can detect and track the launches and give an approximate location of the mlrs, then send Orion with thermals to find them.

Only good solution.