Russian special military operation in Ukraine #24

Svyatogorsk taken by AFU


t.me/asbmil

Wtf is this

A dear friend of mine sent me today news that Russian authorities are preparing to change the status of SMO in Ukraine. When I read the news, I commented " War? That's the way I interpret it". The answer was " basically". So, what this means exactly? Russia can by voting in State Duma proclaim an Anti-terrorist operation in Ukraine. Similar action has been done during the last war in Chechnya. We all know how that ends. It was swift and brutal. You will say, Ukraine is not Chechnya. It's not. But it will be brutal. Not so swift. But another good friend of mine, as well as a good amount of readership is thinking that Russia is withdrawing and searching for an exit from Ukraine. Let's discuss it simply. If Russia withdraws now, or in near future, I believe that her significance in world affairs would be totally diminished, with a big internal crisis which consequence I can't predict at all. Maybe even the existence of Russia as an entity came into question. But, in the last few days, we heard many high-ranking Russian officials simply saying that all goals of SMO would be fulfilled. Certainly, we don't expect them to say, "all is lost, each on his own". But the coldness and tone with which the message is repeated, are entirely different from the slow, annoyingly careful, and patient way and language which characterized the Russian diplomatic approach to affairs. I was thinking, you don't bump yourself into the chest, playing gorilla, and then run away with your tail between your legs like some chihuahua. If the second is in question, we can repeat all negative scenarios about Russia's future. Every single one of them, and each would be perfectly plausible and possible. But if the first option is in case, which I think it is, I expect a significant escalation of hostilities in not so distant future. I don't believe that idiots are sitting in the Kremlin or the General staff of the Ru army. Annoyingly slow, as mentioned above, but far, far away from being idiots. In the end, my friend and I finished the short discussion with " So, the stone age for Ua? ". Answer was

@Slavyangrad
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nomadski wrote:

Caveat Emptor wrote " Let's just deploy numbers they had in May .... " Not too difficult to determine the numbers needed . First you need numbers deployed now and square area under control . Then you find out area East of Denieper River , to be captured ,  and multiply to find number needed to defend area . But ! To capture area at first , you need to multiply number by three . QED . Oh and don't forget Odessa too . About negotiations , there is little to no chance of success . A division of territory and withdrawal of forces along Denieper River . But the negotiations , if they take place , should be made public .

Guesstimate : ( 120,000 x 2 ) x 3 = 680,000 , to capture East and 240,000 to defend .

Of course it is known. My point was made mostly about need or absence of need for mobilization. 
As for Odessa, i don't know what to say.

Russia must make a total mobilization. It can't go on like this.

Without a full mobilization and an escalation by Russia in Ukraine. This war will be lost. Ukraine is getting too many high-end, effective weapons and they have too many soldiers right now for Russia to accomplish anything in eastern Ukraine. Russia will be on the backfoot constantly if they leave things as they are currently.

Why don't you attack for Belarus? why don't you surround Ukraine by the border? destroys everything Stop having mercy on the fucking Ukrainians. This stupidity of the special operation, of wanting to live normally when you are in a terminal war, is absurd. Let the Russians move their asses.

Why are forces in liman and ugledarnot reinforced? Wtf is this? Where are the Russian reinforcements? Has russia been lying that there are reinforcements this whole time?

Yes. Let's mobilize 5 million people and do human wave attacks. People, this is not a video game.

SolidarityWithRussia wrote:Reports about massacres in Kharkov region are increasing. This is not good.

And you expected different outcome?

billybatts91 wrote:Without a full mobilization and an escalation by Russia in Ukraine. This war will be lost. Ukraine is getting too many high-end, effective weapons and they have too many soldiers right now for Russia to accomplish anything in eastern Ukraine. Russia will be on the backfoot constantly if they leave things as they are currently.

The best alternative for Russia at this point is a negotiated settlement with the least amount of humiliation possible followed by Putin's departure. What exactly will full mobilization accomplish? NATO can still up the ante technologically - there are no Ukrainians flying around in F-22s - so it is not as if Russia has some secret conventional military technology they haven't yet deployed. NATO has demonstrated that they can mitigate Russia's strike capability and totally deny Russia air superiority. They appear to have full situational awareness and probably communication and EW dominance. How else do you explain Ukraine's ability to move their force structure at will? Russia's production capacity for high tech weapons may be stretched - NATO countries can produce weapons (safe from shortages of essential components) till the cows come home. Energy is not going to be the ace in the hole Putin thought. China hasn't lifted a finger to help Russia - China's direct entry into the war materially and with manpower would change the outcome, but I see little odds of this happening. Ukraine may have the demographics of a panda, but so do ethnic Russians. I seriously doubt there is much will among Russians to see their young men expended in a meat grinder that could go on for years. Putin rolled the dice after blithering inaction for years. The Orange Revolution was in 2004. Did they spend the next 10 years preparing for 2014? Developing non-lethal crowd control techniques? Contingency plans? The ability to legitimately contest the lawful presidency in Ukraine? In 2014, all those regions of Ukraine with minimal Russian military intervention would have declared autonomy from an illegitimate coup government and they would have had a strong case.

caveat emptor wrote:Yes. Let's mobilize 5 million people and do human wave attacks. People, this is not a video game.

How about transfer all aircraft and infantry Divisions around moscow to Ukraine?

limb wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:Yes. Let's mobilize 5 million people and do human wave attacks. People, this is not a video game.

How about transfer all aircraft and infantry Divisions around moscow to Ukraine?

It has nothing to do with military manpower or equipment or strategy

It is a complete failure of the political leadership

A complete failure of management

caveat emptor wrote:

Backman wrote:
For what ? To fight 10's of 000's of nato troops pouring into Ukraine maybe ?

Let's just deploy numbers they had in May. Kharkov didn't happen because Ukrainians did something outstanding, but because it was almost undefended.

Why not just defend it instead of walking into a propaganda land mine that blows your legs off ?

There's been a lot of English language commentators ,like Nick Fuentes, Haz and Jackson Hinkle. They've been going to bat for the Russian cause at a cost. And then they just get smoked by this.

More wise words from Slavyangrad -

Look, I will make this plain: This week and the next will decide the outcome of this conflict.

Either Russia will pull together its resources—I am not even talking about mobilization, but even the resources immediately available, like all the reserves prepared at this time to go into Ukraine and the troops and equipment already on the ground, and stops this wave of the Ukrainian offensive, or the next war will be a war for Russia itself—whether it starts immediately, with NATO smelling blood, or even in a few years, with Ukraine and its vulture partners even better prepared.

If the Ukrainian offensive is stopped and turned back—as Russia is fully capable of doing now—then the counteroffensive may well be even more rapid than what we’ve seen from Ukraine in the past two weeks. In the face of such counteroffensive, the enemy’s morale may well crack.

It all depends on political will and the proficiency of military command. The fact that the front has not collapsed any further that it has, and the at pace of the Ukrainian offensive has slowed considerably, compared to the Balakleya breakthrough, indicates resilience on the part of even the light defensive lines that Russia had on the Izyum front.

The key here is to maintain the morale of the troops—lose that, and the conflict is largely over. And by that defeat I mean even Russia retaining Kherson, Zaporozhye and the Donbass.

Properly organized—and considering that the withdrawal appeared to have been orderly and controlled—the Russian pullback would work to create a counteroffensive spring that can be utilized.

But it will require political will. If anyone at the top is sitting pretty and thinking that they can force Ukraine into a peace or a ceasefire in the face of this rout, they will get defeat and shame, rather than just shame.

Political will, an appeal to the nation, positing that this war is a matter of Russia’s survival—and the outcome will be clear and in Russia’s favour.

Political indecision, and the next war Russia will be fighting to defend its borders.

Backman wrote:
Why not just defend it instead of walking into a propaganda land mine that blows your legs off ?

There's been a lot of English language commentators ,like Nick Fuentes, Haz and Jackson Hinkle. They've been going to bat for the Russian cause at a cost. And then they just get smoked by this.

Listen, i thought that Kharkov was a **** up, which is not good, but it can be rectified. But, seeing how  quickly they folded and left without a fight, i am starting to suspect some backdoor deal. And that's much was worse than some officer's misjudgment.
I have no idea who the gentlemen are, but they are of no consequence for this situation.

billybatts91 wrote:More wise words from Slavyangrad -

Look, I will make this plain: This week and the next will decide the outcome of this conflict.

Either Russia will pull together its resources—I am not even talking about mobilization, but even the resources immediately available, like all the reserves prepared at this time to go into Ukraine and the troops and equipment already on the ground, and stops this wave of the Ukrainian offensive, or the next war will be a war for Russia itself—whether it starts immediately, with NATO smelling blood, or even in a few years, with Ukraine and its vulture partners even better prepared.

If the Ukrainian offensive is stopped and turned back—as Russia is fully capable of doing now—then the counteroffensive may well be even more rapid than what we’ve seen from Ukraine in the past two weeks. In the face of such counteroffensive, the enemy’s morale may well crack.

It all depends on political will and the proficiency of military command. The fact that the front has not collapsed any further that it has, and the at pace of the Ukrainian offensive has slowed considerably, compared to the Balakleya breakthrough, indicates resilience on the part of even the light defensive lines that Russia had on the Izyum front.

The key here is to maintain the morale of the troops—lose that, and the conflict is largely over. And by that defeat I mean even Russia retaining Kherson, Zaporozhye and the Donbass.

Properly organized—and considering that the withdrawal appeared to have been orderly and controlled—the Russian pullback would work to create a counteroffensive spring that can be utilized.

But it will require political will. If anyone at the top is sitting pretty and thinking that they can force Ukraine into a peace or a ceasefire in the face of this rout, they will get defeat and shame, rather than just shame.

Political will, an appeal to the nation, positing that this war is a matter of Russia’s survival—and the outcome will be clear and in Russia’s favour.

Political indecision, and the next war Russia will be fighting to defend its borders.

I agree with this. Gleb is a smart guy.

limb wrote:
Apparently Ukrainians didnt use all of their resrves in their push in kharkov. Russian amd ldnr trcommanders massively underestimate the amount of equipment and soldiers that Ukraine has. If kalibr strikes actually caused as many casaulties as reported, yhen Ukraine wouldnt be able to casually muster 70000-80000 troops for 2 offensives, while holding the artemovsk line more or pess successfully.

This will become serious. But then AFAIK Ukraine already mobilized even if Kalibr do take that amount of casualty. Ukraine still have alot of troops to mobilize.

People this is not about military, but political decisions.
Can Russian army perform better? Sure. But present level of performance is more than enough to deal with Ukraine, given enough forces are deployed.

caveat emptor wrote:People this is not about military, but political decisions.
Can Russian army perform better? Sure. But present level of performance is more than enough to deal with Ukraine, given enough forces are deployed.

If Putin does not send the army, and lavrov is trying to negotiate, what can be done ?

I thought everything was in the bag two weeks ago? According to the dimwitts and propagandists obviously... (lets forget the last 8 years of unfiltered stupidity, as they forgot that quickly )

My question to the dimwitts, that is, to those still crazy enough to believe their own diarrhea and that of the propagandists that feed them the diarrhea they spout here daily..... so what happened? What's going on? The rout was on remember? The Donetsk offensive? The third stage?

I do have to say... it's gotta be sort of weird to watch idiots realize, deep down, that they're idiots. And to try to get others to their level of stupidity, with a total lack of self awareness of their sad condition is the cherry on top. That moment must be truly awful. Not even a million dislikes can make up for the feeling.

Del