Russian special military operation in Ukraine #25

Hole wrote:
The drones are not needed but if they are cheap... 

But as a russian developer/producer of drones I would ask the MoD: Why the heck do our products have to go through a testing regime lasting 5 or even 10 years, where every wire or bolt is touched, but then stuff from Iran is bought in a matter of days???

Higher forces. Iran is a newly minted SCO member and more importantly at the moment, is holding the fort over the Caucasus situation.
The Russians are doing a bro a solid by providing effective advertising for the products of the Iranian MIC, among other things.

Not a massive fan of either in fact I can't stand piers. But Peterson actually speaks some sense and the west will be banning him now lol.

Ispan wrote:Gentlemen, can anyone of you please inform me?

We don't have even an approximate picture of the Russian order of battle, and with good reason, if back in 2014 it was possible to figure out the Ukranian army strenghts and units and approximate location, today it's not the case.

There's a Russian order of battle wiki page. If you add it up the BTG's, the forces that went in were between 32,000 and 59,000. I have no idea what to make of it

Ispan wrote:I will have to state the obvious. All I am asking for is a rough estimate of comparative strengths. A lot of information is already known to the enemy and is posted online. We could get a decent idea of the Donbass militia capabilities from Ukrainian bloggers.

The problem with enemy sources is that most are propaganda and inflate Russian strengths and losses, for example, the claim of 50 thousand Russian killed, because of the recurring error of confusing dead with casualties (killed, wounded, prisoners)

For example, we were all puzzled here when the Balakleya breakthrough and the fact that there wasn't nothing, zero, zilch, nada, ничего behind the front. That no stop line was traced in the map and that the Ukrops could go all the way up to the Russian border.

There was an heroic attempt at plugging the gap showing that the command has reflexes and can react, ferrying a few vehicles and a few hundred soldiers in the large Mi-26 helicopters to hold Kupyansk.

That was nice, but where are the troops that should have been in the Central Military district? No strategic reserve? The Kremlin guards? Throwing some batallions of Rosgvardiya to set up a roadblock? Anybody?

Russia is supposed to have a rapid deployment force near Moscow. I think it was not available because it has been sucked up in the war. I read somewhere that almost half the force in Kherson is made up of paratroopers.

I really don't understand where's everyone. We know casualties are moderate. I think there are reserves but they are all placed in the south and the northern front for reasons only the high command knows about has to get by with what he has.


I know, perhaps Russia doesn't have enough troops, starting the campaign with 150 thousand and suffering 50 thousand casualties is a major attrition and leaves only a stretched force to hold the line and needing reinforcements before it can undertake the offensive again. Mobilization was coming anyway but Balakleya was a wake up call. But after six months some wounded from the first phase should be returning to duty by now.

Maybe it was folly to hold maneuvers in the Far East, 50 thousand soldiers better employed in the war.

I understand the lack of infantry and pilots. But if there aren't men, there are enough tanks and cannon to compensate. Fifty tanks concentrated or a hundred cannon should be enough to plug gaps.

I really want to believe the Russian army is hoarding troops for a great offensive in the Soviet style with an opening barrage of several hundred guns and a mass armor breakthrough of a couple hundred tanks instead of dispersing the tanks in penny packets like the Ukry do.


PS Great article.

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/holding-ground-losing-war/

Tracking ORBAT is my interest and I spend hours daily trying to track... and I know very little for certain to show. And the 50,000 casualties would be inclusive of the LDPR forces, volunteers and Rosgvardia IMO.

thegopnik wrote:hes back lol

Can't stand westerners like this guy trying to larp as "bad-ass Russians". He needs to take his ass back to America where he truly belongs. Go fight your own battles there.

ALAMO wrote:

Airbornewolf wrote:

Werewolf wrote:I am seriously thinking to just take a vacation from this....

Guys sitting at their homes discussing military strategies and tactics while watching everything from their homes, thousands of kms away from the front. Users like the Jean-Claude X Damme and his alter egos with some Napoleon complex trying to lecture how to win WW3... You are praying the same phrases every few pages up and down like mantra. It is getting repetitive.

I am just waiting for further NATO movements since the German side appears to do something in terms of logistics and I would expect other PONOS spearheads doing something similiar. So sit back and observe the further steps.

Those people here do not understand what is happening, or the escalation that is about to happen on the battlefield.
I come here and scroll trough the pages of comments until i see an username i DO want to read what they have to say.
The level of armchair expertise here is not good for my health either

Oh guys, c'mon
You have to admit that some of them bring a pure joy while observing
Armchair field marshals and strategists, who have no bloody idea what the railway gauge is
Or can't show the place we talk about on the map, still have tons of expert thoughts on how the campaign should be carried there
Actually I love it, some of them can make my day all along!

well, no actually.
I'm happy for you that you can enjoy it.
No sarcasm intended, i just get annoyed with their attitude.

And the following is not directed at you Alamo, but as a general post:

With some here i highly put their mental maturity in question.
some remarks posted by some makes me want to ship them on the first truck to the frontline to find out first hand how it is to be on an battlefield.
"Russia MOD this and that", ....get lost. like where do they base their criticism on?. their Call of Duty experience on their PlayStation?. Watching this one war-movie?.
Everyone is Captain Hindsight or think the RF can just pull bunny's out of their asses on a moments notice on the battlefield.

They treat this like it is some sort of game, or show they are watching.
This is dead serious business, It is not a game. it is not a show.
And these individuals have no right to speak so lightly or out of place when daily RF/LPR/DPR soldiers and civilians lose their lives in this war daily.

I keep myself out of the discussion, because i see a lot in sources daily. including its rawest of footage.
And while i have been to Afghanistan on combat deployments. And i wondered some moments if i would live to get out alive.
It is nothing compared to the war and firepower what is unleashed on the battlefield of Ukraine.

RF/LPR/DPR Troops and civilians in the battlefield of Ukraine daily lose their lives under horrific conditions.
It is not sensation, it is not entertainment, these are real people that suffer, get hurt and killed.

I will not, and i have not the right to render judgement as an OSINT gatherer on the actions of the RF/LPR and DPR.
This war, is about the survival of Russia. Defending it's people from Nazi's And stopping the NATO Military's Industrial complex.
The stakes could literally not be higher at the moment.

Who am i to judge from the safety and comfort of my home in Western Europe?. where i only can see materials/information what other's post online?.
If i, as an Combat veteran that has gone trough various combat situations. shut my mouth in humility of what is transpiring right now.

Why can not the rest of keyboard warrior, armchair generals here just shut up and go do some self-reflection first?.
Get off your high-horse. and have some Respect for the people there in the war.
And try to activate those braincells before you post something absolutely stupid.

and shit,...there are a lot of dumb posts lately here in this thread.

Or at least if you are an expert of troop deployment and strategy. go sign up for an decade of frontline service.
Either you survive and learn an very important lesson, or you get removed from the Gene-pool.
Both acceptable outcomes.

I know my words will land on deaf ears with these individuals, as usually that is the way with internet idiots and wannabe's.
But i guess it was good to at least express my views on the matter.

Airbornewolf wrote:

well, no actually.
I'm happy for you that you can enjoy it.
No sarcasm intended, i just get annoyed with their attitude.

And the following is not directed at you Alamo, but as a general post:

With some here i highly put their mental maturity in question.
some remarks posted by some makes me want to ship them on the first truck to the frontline to find out first hand how it is to be on an battlefield.
"Russia MOD this and that", ....get lost. like where do they base their criticism on?. their Call of Duty experience on their PlayStation?. Watching this one war-movie?.
Everyone is Captain Hindsight or think the RF can just pull bunny's out of their asses on a moments notice on the battlefield.

They treat this like it is some sort of game, or show they are watching.
This is dead serious business, It is not a game. it is not a show.
And these individuals have no right to speak so lightly or out of place when daily RF/LPR/DPR soldiers and civilians lose their lives in this war daily.

I keep myself out of the discussion, because i see a lot in sources daily. including its rawest of footage.
And while i have been to Afghanistan on combat deployments. And i wondered some moments if i would live to get out alive.
It is nothing compared to the war and firepower what is unleashed on the battlefield of Ukraine.

RF/LPR/DPR Troops and civilians in the battlefield of Ukraine daily lose their lives under horrific conditions.
It is not sensation, it is not entertainment, these are real people that suffer, get hurt and killed.

I will not, and i have not the right to render judgement as an OSINT gatherer on the actions of the RF/LPR and DPR.
This war, is about the survival of Russia. Defending it's people from Nazi's And stopping the NATO Military's Industrial complex.
The stakes could literally not be higher at the moment.

Who am i to judge from the safety and comfort of my home in Western Europe?. where i only can see materials/information what other's post online?.
If i, as an Combat veteran that has gone trough various combat situations. shut my mouth in humility of what is transpiring right now.

Why can not the rest of keyboard warrior, armchair generals here just shut up and go do some self-reflection first?.
Get off your high-horse. and have some Respect for the people there in the war.
And try to activate those braincells before you post something absolutely stupid.

and shit,...there are a lot of dumb posts lately here in this thread.

Or at least if you are an expert of troop deployment and strategy. go sign up for an decade of frontline service.
Either you survive and learn an very important lesson, or you get removed from the Gene-pool.
Both acceptable outcomes.

I know my words will land on deaf ears with these individuals, as usually that is the way with internet idiots and wannabe's.
But i guess it was good to at least express my views on the matter.

I agree with you for the most part, it's very serious

But- explain how in the world it makes sense that it being so serious

It was managed the way it was on day Z?

Explain to me why Ukraine was not devastated as it should have been?

Why overtures and peace talks, sending armored units in as recon in force, walking into ambushes, exchanges of nazis and so on and so forth?

What it seems like is that those in charge did not take it as serious as you are saying it is

Which indeed it is

But only just now did it dawn on them how serious it is

Arkanghelsk wrote:

I agree with you for the most part, it's very serious

But- explain how in the world it makes sense that it being so serious

It was managed the way it was on day Z?

Explain to me why Ukraine was not devastated as it should have been?

Why overtures and peace talks, sending armored units in as recon in force, walking into ambushes, exchanges of nazis and so on and so forth?

What it seems like is that those in charge did not take it as serious as you are saying it is

Which indeed it is

But only just now did it dawn on them how serious it is

1. Last thing first, they [Putin and stavka] knew how serious this was from at least late last year. They just thought

2. (And this is the first point) that Ukronazism was not as ingrained as it is. A poster, I forget who, said Russia is dealing with 30 years of nazi propaganda. Holy hell, Zhukov is depicted as a bad general, youtube has videos about when was the first time Russia invaded Ukraine, and all sorts of bullshit and that is just scratching the surface. Putin thought a soft approach would bring more sober minded Ukrainians to his side and bring down the nazis. He miscalculated because the brainrot in that country runs very deep. That is why Z Day was not as effective as he wanted

3. The other miscalculation is that Putin thought this could be a limited military operation with precise and surgical engagements. Sadly, he is dealing with NATO. Have ya read the Rand Corporation's 2019 report on Extending Russia? The monsters who run the show in my country and in Europe would risk nuclear fueled extinction to destroy Russia. The brainrot among the leadership is severe and the propaganda budget is only second to the offense budget.

4. That is why Russia attempted negotiations and troops on parade and why Russia attacked with less than 100,000 regulars.

The good news is that by late spring and early summer the Military leadership learned it's lesson and started destroying Ukrainian forces, the bad news is that there still is not the political will to destroy Ukrainian government, transportation, and energy infrastructure to the extent needed to put the dagger into the heart of the fascist beast, but I get the feeling with the call up currently underway and the referendum in the liberated territories that maybe just maybe that political will is now emerging and that just maybe we are going to see what should have been the aim from day one, a drive to the Dniepr and Odessa.

[quote="Airbornewolf"][quote="ALAMO"][quote="Airbornewolf"]

Werewolf wrote:I am seriously ernet idiots and wannabe's.
But i guess it was good to at least express my views on the matter.

Use the ignore list feature.

The collective West went for broke. Akhra Avidzba, commander of the "Pyatnashka" battalion and Hero of the DPR. "There are all Western PMCs, there are many released prisoners, supplies come from all over the world."

Big_Gazza wrote:

Ispan wrote:PS Great article.

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/holding-ground-losing-war/

Great article. If only the Washington Beltway and the Brussels retard-factory had more people with McGregors sensibility and adherence to reality-based views.

Awww, who am I kidding

Its bullshit. Washington wanted this war. And whatever happens too Ukraine (they don't give a shit) the USA has achieved its objectives. It has turned the EU into a weakened and terrified vassal that cannot compete economically without Russian energy. Winners - 1 China (Russia driven into their arms) 2 US, EU subservient and no longer a competitor. EU will probably collapse and be replaced by and evolved NATO after booting out Turkey. 3. Russia has a tough slog. It will win the war, but we will see if they can develop their economy. Losers #1 Ukraine, ruined, and probably at most a reduced landlocked puppet state. EU- they are fucked. And they bent over nicely to help.

Hole wrote:
The drones are not needed but if they are cheap... 
But as a russian developer/producer of drones I would ask the MoD: Why the heck do our products have to go through a testing regime lasting 5 or even 10 years, where every wire or bolt is touched, but then stuff from Iran is bought in a matter of days???

It is not as much a matter of testing, but the money.
Rial is weak. The whole Iranian economy is not a brilliant example of welfare, you know
They are hungry for lots of products the Russkie can supply to them, so what you have here is a double gap. The first one is the real-term price of those drones and the second is that they can pay for them with products that have a profit margin already.
Last but not least, each and any developed product supplied to them opens a niche for further cooperation. And vice versa of course.
I would have been really surprised if those drones cost more than a few thousand $ a piece. Russkie can just blow the whole bloody Ukropia with them, placing in 3x3m squares

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:
Azerbaijan did exactly that with the Armenians that used to live in Baku after the fall of Soviet Union (i mean, kicking them out of the country and losing their properties.
About relocation of ethnic russian, I did not mean forced relocation, as you mentioned, I meant offer incentive per relocation and free properties that used to belong to banderists

Oh, but sir, it was a common practice for a whole 90s.
Ethnic cleansing was a direct casus beli for the federal intervention in Chechenya in 1994. Chechen ultras cleansed the whole Chechenya of any non Muslim they could find. A common practice was throwing a flat owner out of a window, if the true Muslim liked the location

mnztr wrote:

Its bullshit. Washington wanted this war. And whatever happens too Ukraine (they don't give a shit) the USA has achieved its objectives. It has turned the EU into a weakened and terrified vassal that cannot compete economically without Russian energy.  Winners - 1 China (Russia driven into their arms) 2 US, EU subservient and no longer a competitor. EU will probably collapse and be replaced by and evolved NATO after booting out Turkey. 3. Russia has a tough slog. It will win the war, but we will see if they can develop their economy.  Losers #1 Ukraine, ruined, and probably at most a reduced landlocked puppet state. EU- they are fucked.  And they bent over nicely to help.  

Washington not only wanted this war, but planned it and framed it, what is a very sad observation.
Russia was busy avoiding the conflict for the last several years, even at the expense of leaving Russkie population that counted on the Fatherland.
The leaked RAND materials leave not a single question mark.
It is a war directed toward European Union, with the goal to destroy it, bankrupt it, drill it out of capital and the human factor, kill its industry and destruct any links it has with Russia.
The best and most effective way to do this, was to stage a war that will involve the Russian Federation and Germany, on the territory of Ukraine. Carried out by inflicting a constant military danger and pressure on the LDNR, that Russia could not leave unasnsered, while lacking the tools other than direct military involvement.
They have admitted that openly, and that is just another tool they have used, after migrant crisis in the 2012+.

billybatts91 wrote:

thegopnik wrote:hes back lol

Can't stand westerners like this guy trying to larp as "bad-ass Russians". He needs to take his ass back to America where he truly belongs. Go fight your own battles there.

Patrick is fine, he has been living in the Donbass since at least the 2014 coup, he probably knows far more about the area than most people on this forum. He certainly speaks Russian better than I do.

Erk wrote:
Patrick is fine, he has been living in the Donbass since at least the 2014 coup, he probably knows far more about the area than most people on this forum. He certainly speaks Russian better than I do.

Cm'n
His Russian is horrible.
What is actually interesting, as he lives there indeed for years, and has a Russian wife and kids if I remember.
Maybe he is an example of people having language skills deficits.

Just read those western articles that TOR and Pantsir failed to hit drones, helos and that's how Ukrainian TB2 drones were able to hit Russian targets . What they don't mention is that U.S/NATO QR-SAMs will also fail to hit Russian drones, helos on several occasions.

That aside western analysts need to understand a couple of things.

Pulse doppler Radars need movement to extract information. If NATO/Ukrainian chopper is hovering, i.e stationary i.e at the same speed as clutter i.e both aren't moving relative to the radar, you need rotor movement to extract data. If the low  radar cross section rotor tips are not at optimal angle to the radar beam, they can be lost in clutter.

Radars of the kind of TOR, Pantsir ones are mobile, vehicle mounted, are at a relative low height. Mast mounted radars look down on targets, can hence pick up a lot more target signature to extract data from. Want mobility, you can't have masts. So radars are optimized for picking up threats at specific ranges. If a target is too close (very small, point blank, low alt)could get below the radar coverage but that's unlikely given radar placement of TOR, Pantisr, plus it's a chopper. Blind spots are covered by EO sensor too.

So what Russia will probably do is tweak their radar algorithms, filters accordingly. Put more power for this many seconds, don't reject targets unless processed thrice etc etc. This is why tests are done. Simulations only go so far.

Karsniy liman is still in russian hands for now. Ukrainians still have massive reserves to throw and are trasnfering several thousand to over 20000 troops for a final attack on K. liman. Russian cruise missile strikes so far have failed to destroy ukrainian reserves enough to have any remotely tangible effect on the frontline. The ukrainians have 0 problems with fuel supplies, which allows them to transfer reserves anywhere they want with 0 problems.

No progress in artemovsk and soledar at all. The "pesky flower" is still a pipe dream. There has been 0 progress around avdeevka.

Backman wrote:The collective West went for broke. Akhra Avidzba, commander of the "Pyatnashka" battalion and Hero of the DPR. "There are all Western PMCs, there are many released prisoners, supplies come from all over the world."

They can mobilize everyone in 404 or from every goddamn shitpile there is. All the same meat to the Russians. They'll slaughter each and every one of you.

limb wrote:Karsniy liman is still in russian hands for now. Ukrainians still have massive reserves to throw and are trasnfering several thousand to over 20000 troops for a final attack on K. liman. Russian cruise missile strikes so far have failed to destroy ukrainian reserves enough to have any remotely tangible effect on the frontline. The ukrainians have 0 problems with fuel supplies, which allows them to transfer reserves anywhere they want with 0 problems.

No progress in artemovsk and soledar at all. The "pesky flower" is still a pipe dream. There has been 0 progress around avdeevka.

How do they hide 20,000 troops in an area?

Arsenic wrote:

limb wrote:Karsniy liman is still in russian hands for now. Ukrainians still have massive reserves to throw and are trasnfering several thousand to over 20000 troops for a final attack on K. liman. Russian cruise missile strikes so far have failed to destroy ukrainian reserves enough to have any remotely tangible effect on the frontline. The ukrainians have 0 problems with fuel supplies, which allows them to transfer reserves anywhere they want with 0 problems.

No progress in artemovsk and soledar at all. The "pesky flower" is still a pipe dream. There has been 0 progress around avdeevka.

How do they hide 20,000 troops in an area?

The same way they hid 50000 troops near balakleya.