Russian special military operation in Ukraine #25

Hole wrote:
The drones are not needed but if they are cheap... 

But as a russian developer/producer of drones I would ask the MoD: Why the heck do our products have to go through a testing regime lasting 5 or even 10 years, where every wire or bolt is touched, but then stuff from Iran is bought in a matter of days???

Of course they're needed. Iranian drones has seen extensive use. Mohajer-6 and Shahed 129 had seen action in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Ethiopia among others. I'm suspecting that some Russian forces have seen Mohajer and Shahed in action while deployed in Syria. As for Russian producers, only Kronshtadt makes these kind of drones atm. Others are still in development and testing mode. I'm talking about MALE drones, of course. Also, production of small precision-guided munition is still not sufficient or it is in development.

Arrival of Geran-2

Very potent explosion and it seems Ukrainians can't shoot them down and it goes through their AD like a knife through hot butter.

caveat emptor wrote:

littlerabbit wrote:We all talk about mobilisation of 300.000 reservists...are we sure Shoygu told us the exact number? I wouldn't tell, if I were on his place.

Putin signed a document which permits the possibility to mobilize up to 1 million reservists.

Somehow, I'm convinced there will be few hundred thousands more.

Also, what about volunteers, how many so far...50.000...100.000...?

It is easy to call people up. Problem will be training and equipping so many people. And what for? Everyone that's called up needs to be paid and he is taken out from workforce. To have 500-600k people just sitting around is counterproductive.
Even 300k will take time to properly assemble, as per reports, wrong people were called up or some that work in defense industry or have health problems. 
As you maybe know from Serbia, people from vojni odsek are bottom of the barrel, when it comes to efficacy. I read somewhere that in Russia those people get paid sub 15k rubles. So situation has to be similar to same institutions in Serbia. I can always work less than you paid me for, as we in Serbia say.
On a serious note, they'll need weeks just to call up adequate 300k. Some will start training in the meantime. With 3 months of training, we can expect to see numbers in Ukraine changing around New Year or so.

They mobilze no idiots, only the best of the best! You can't compare ordinary Volkshturmists with now mobilizied russian soldiers. These soldiers now mobilzed are ex-officers, ex-sergeants etc. and were back in their time specialized professionals.

The mobilized 300000 soldiers will be ready in 2-3 months. At this time the soil in Ukraine will be frozen and most tress without leaf...perfect conditions for the Russian Army.

After the referendum Russia will have instantly additional 25000 - 50000 soldiers, because conscripts can save the rear. This additional troops will f*ck Ukraine seriuosly and when the 300000 troops arrive Ukraine is history!

Broski wrote:

The map is not accurate anymore...no independent entity "Novorossija"...it's all becoming direct Russia!

ALAMO wrote:

caveat emptor wrote:
These belong to history mostly. Things have changed to a certain degree in last 100+ years. It is clear that Odessa and Kharkov absolutely have to become a part of Russia. I've ommited Chernigov as it is largely very nationalistic and pro-Ukrainian. Sumy is a mixed bag, but it  has long border with Russia and more pro-Russian population, in general.

Folks like to live in their own delusions, while those delusions are the very core of Ukro's agenda and propaganda.
Those territories are not pro-Russian anymore.
Years of brainwashing, human force drilling, nazi education - and what we have is a TROUBLE not a gain.
Dot.
The only way to resove it, would be an ethnic cleansing, no matter how fancy and polite we will call that, and fuel the Russkies to the emptied territories.
Sure, the thing was played multiple times - so let me ask again, if the Russkie are cynical enough to carry that?

You need only a few years, control over media and Ukrainians would think they are white africans from Mars. Joke aside! In a few years you can reverse the brainwashing...just look what the western "friends" doing to Ukraine now? They use the WHOLE population as a meatshield against Russia...the only goal is to weaken Russia they give a f*ck about Ukraine. Ukrainians live in SHIT and western "friends" are spending billions over billions for weapons, but weapons don't feed the population.

Gentlemen, can anyone of you please inform me?

We don't have even an approximate picture of the Russian order of battle, and with good reason, if back in 2014 it was possible to figure out the Ukranian army strenghts and units and approximate location, today it's not the case.

Those maps with Western NATO symbols are pure propaganda. How many troops has Russia engaged in the front? how many battallions?

I think Russian army has about 100 thousand men in the front. Lugansk and Donetsk militas probably can't muster more than 40 thousand between them, probably less accounting for losses.

It just seems me strange that the Russians have so few troops. I calculate about a third of the force or about 30 thousand soldiers are holding the Kherson front, but the fight around the bridgeheads seems to involve only a few battallions.

Same in the north. Two battallions are holding Krasny Liman for two weeks and there doesn't seem to be even a single battallion in reserve behind. The defenders of Liman should have been relieved long ago.

I am suspecting a lot of troops are being amassed behind the frontlines, specially in the south. They are being held back in reserve if the ukrops break through but they are ready to roll forward once it's the time for an offensive.

I disagree with those pessimists that say there's no troops left, that all Russia can muster for now is 100 thousand and those are stretched too thin, but it's really baffling there are no reserves or any kind or some strategic reserve is not available in Russia.


Also, I would like an approximate strength in tanks, artillery and aircraft. I had seen somewhere the figure of 400 aircraft, but don't know if that's planes, helicopters or both, 200 of each.

Is there any resource that does force comparison? , it doesn't matter if it's in Russian, I can read it with automatic translation.

I think the Ukrainians material wise are in their last legs. It seems they already lost most of the 200 tanks they got from Poland and their soviet artillery is running out of ammunition, specially the 122mm pieces. So they are basically left with less than a couple hundred western pieces of 155mm caliber and again 152mm Dana SPGs.

thegopnik wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/Sprinter88000/status/1573379908864294914 go check out this guys twitter posts he is showing a russian sniper sniping ukrainian soldiers in this video,  also remember to check out ghost of kherson or this page for constant updates https://mobile.twitter.com/TheHumanFund5. Ghost of Zeepo got banned i think for posting a video.

Lets hope we see ASh-12.7 perform too.  I hope russian soldiers are using tripod mounted ground search radar too.

Same in the north. Two battallions are holding Krasny Liman and there doesn't seem to be even a battallion reserve behind.

I am suspecting a lot of troops are being amassed behind the frontlines, specially in the south. They are being held back in reserve if the ukrops break through but they are ready to roll forward once it's the time for an offensive.

Thats what im worried about. As for reserves counterattacking, they counterattacked squat when ukrainians occupied izyum.

Is it true even students are getting drafted? I thought Russia was gonna avoid doing that?

In this video (at around the 36 second) the guy explains that he's a student and he's still being sent to Ukraine as part of the mobilization. He also doesn't seem like he's war ready or has past experience. Crap, if this is gonna be the majority of the type of people that are sent, I'm not impressed.

Do you think those of us who would actually know any of the informations you want would post what they know? OpSec. Get real and realistic.

billybatts91 wrote:Is it true even students are getting drafted? I thought Russia was gonna avoid doing that?

In this video (at around the 36 second) the guy explains that he's a student and he's still being sent to Ukraine as part of the mobilization. He also doesn't seem like he's war ready or has past experience. Crap, if this is gonna be the majority of the type of people that are sent, I'm not impressed.

There will be many mistakes. And this is not a sole example. They'll send him back home when they check his documents at training center. You have to understand that military recruitment offices have often outdated info and that civilian bureaucrats work in them. They'll need few weeks if not a month to clear everything out and collect 300 thousand people.

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:well slowly they can reverse the propaganda, but it can last a few decades.

As far as ethnic cleansing, it is the same thing being done even now in many other places. The important thing is not to kill and repress civilians for nothing.


Anyway several millions Ukrainians already left for the west. A starting point is not to welcome back those blatantly pro Bandera and antirussian.


I would still try and relocate some ethnic Russians (even from the Urals or from Moscow) in some of the formerly pro-ukrainian areas, giving them the properties of the people involved in the repression of the Russian speaking population.

I would give (especially to the people from Galicia) the possibility of choosing between:

[1]living in a demilitarised russian protectorate without creating problem and paying higher taxes to finance the reconstruction of Novorossia (including helping rebuilding the industry and infrastructure after 30 years of neglect)[2] or packing the bags and leaving properties and paying them a one way ticket to Canada or Australia.

You can't just relocate people. Modern Russia is not USSR under Stalin. Best you can do is to offer incentives for relocation. Anyway, you annex most friendly and best regions of Ukraine and leave the rest to languish.

I will have to state the obvious. All I am asking for is a rough estimate of comparative strengths. A lot of information is already known to the enemy and is posted online. We could get a decent idea of the Donbass militia capabilities from Ukrainian bloggers.

The problem with enemy sources is that most are propaganda and inflate Russian strengths and losses, for example, the claim of 50 thousand Russian killed, because of the recurring error of confusing dead with casualties (killed, wounded, prisoners)

For example, we were all puzzled here when the Balakleya breakthrough and the fact that there wasn't nothing, zero, zilch, nada, ничего behind the front. That no stop line was traced in the map and that the Ukrops could go all the way up to the Russian border.

There was an heroic attempt at plugging the gap showing that the command has reflexes and can react, ferrying a few vehicles and a few hundred soldiers in the large Mi-26 helicopters to hold Kupyansk.

That was nice, but where are the troops that should have been in the Central Military district? No strategic reserve? The Kremlin guards? Throwing some batallions of Rosgvardiya to set up a roadblock? Anybody?

Russia is supposed to have a rapid deployment force near Moscow. I think it was not available because it has been sucked up in the war. I read somewhere that almost half the force in Kherson is made up of paratroopers.

I really don't understand where's everyone. We know casualties are moderate. I think there are reserves but they are all placed in the south and the northern front for reasons only the high command knows about has to get by with what he has.


I know, perhaps Russia doesn't have enough troops, starting the campaign with 150 thousand and suffering 50 thousand casualties is a major attrition and leaves only a stretched force to hold the line and needing reinforcements before it can undertake the offensive again. Mobilization was coming anyway but Balakleya was a wake up call. But after six months some wounded from the first phase should be returning to duty by now.

Maybe it was folly to hold maneuvers in the Far East, 50 thousand soldiers better employed in the war.

I understand the lack of infantry and pilots. But if there aren't men, there are enough tanks and cannon to compensate. Fifty tanks concentrated or a hundred cannon should be enough to plug gaps.

I really want to believe the Russian army is hoarding troops for a great offensive in the Soviet style with an opening barrage of several hundred guns and a mass armor breakthrough of a couple hundred tanks instead of dispersing the tanks in penny packets like the Ukry do.


PS Great article.

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/holding-ground-losing-war/

All i can tell you is that 20th combined arms Army is around Kupyansk and that general area, 40th Naval Infantry brigade in Ugledar area and parts of 76th Pskov division and 7th Guards Air Assault in Kherson.
P.S. And this talk about OPSEC is just BS. Sure, NATO and Ukrainians will need to read on this forum where which unit is and how many soldiers are deployed in which theater of war.

caveat emptor wrote:

billybatts91 wrote:Is it true even students are getting drafted? I thought Russia was gonna avoid doing that?

In this video (at around the 36 second) the guy explains that he's a student and he's still being sent to Ukraine as part of the mobilization. He also doesn't seem like he's war ready or has past experience. Crap, if this is gonna be the majority of the type of people that are sent, I'm not impressed.

There will be many mistakes. And this is not a sole example. They'll send him back home when they check his documents at training center. You have to understand that military recruitment offices have often outdated info and that civilian bureaucrats work in them. They'll need few weeks if not a month to clear everything out and collect 300 thousand people.

That's a good point. I guess mistakes are expected when you're calling up this many people in such a quick time. Hopefully it all gets sorted through.

caveat emptor wrote:All i can tell you is that 20th combined arms Army is around Kupyansk and that general area, 40th Naval Infantry brigade in Ugledar area and parts of 76th Pskov division and 7th Guards Air Assault in Kherson.
P.S. And this talk about OPSEC is just BS. Sure, NATO and Ukrainians will need to read on this forum where which unit is and how many soldiers are deployed in which theater of war.

Why is the frontline around krasny liman only held by militiamen with no heavy armor and air support though?  
is there any info about that arctic tank division with T-80BVMs that allegedly got mauled around kiev(according to ukrainian sources)? What about the 4th guards tank army? The tamanskaya division?

The russians with attitude podcast claimed that the russian command around kharkov has been complained about for some time as being the most incompetent, compared to the kherson and donbass detachments.

Krasniy liman is partially encircled. Thankfully O group spetsnaz are helping out the militiamen. However, the ukrainian bridgehead is secure. For the first time since june, ukrainians are on the other side of severskiy donets, and the russians are completely unable to push them out.

https://t.me/RVvoenkor/26919

caveat emptor wrote:All i can tell you is that 20th combined arms Army is around Kupyansk and that general area, 40th Naval Infantry brigade in Ugledar area and parts of 76th Pskov division and 7th Guards Air Assault in Kherson.
P.S. And this talk about OPSEC is just BS. Sure, NATO and Ukrainians will need to read on this forum where which unit is and how many soldiers are deployed in which theater of war.

OpSec is never bullshit. I live in Sevastopol, that is no secret. I'll never say a damned thing about what is happening in or around this village unless it's actually in the news and even then I keep a lot to myself. VCO and I have friends fighting up there, close friends.

auslander wrote:
OpSec is never bullshit. I live in Sevastopol, that is no secret. I'll never say a damned thing about what is happening in or around this village unless it's actually in the news and even then I keep a lot to myself. VCO and I have friends fighting up there, close friends.

I agree that OpSec discipline is very important and needs to be enforced by troops on the ground. On the other hand, I'm pretty sure that anyone on this forum can't provide any new info or insight that would be helpful to opposite side.

limb wrote:Krasniy liman is partially encircled. Thankfully O group spetsnaz are helping out the militiamen. However, the ukrainian bridgehead is secure. For the first time since june, ukrainians are on the other side of severskiy donets, and the russians are completely unable to push them out.

https://t.me/RVvoenkor/26919

So the Russian 100,000 soldier operation in Ukraine, out of the "1,000,000" army they theoretically have (to be 1,300,000 soon..?) - can't muster another 10,000 men from professional/top notch units anywhere in Russia for rapid deployment? Liman has been getting hit for a week now. Looks pathetic, honestly. Like, what am I missing here, as a supreme armchair general in front of certain humble wizards?

billybatts91 wrote:Is it true even students are getting drafted? I thought Russia was gonna avoid doing that?

In this video (at around the 36 second) the guy explains that he's a student and he's still being sent to Ukraine as part of the mobilization. He also doesn't seem like he's war ready or has past experience. Crap, if this is gonna be the majority of the type of people that are sent, I'm not impressed.

Your first clue should have been seeing "The Telegraph."