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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #26

    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:40 pm

    owais.usmani wrote:Well it seems NATO is pushing hard to provoke Russia to use nuclear weapons first.

    If they do end up using it first, it should not be in Ukraine. Rather first 3 of them should be right there on Washington, London and Paris.
    It is more likely that the US would use nukes in Ukraine to attack a large Russian army formation while they are assaulting a town in Ukraine than Russia using nukes in Ukraine.

    One scenario some Russian analysts gave in the late 1990s was Russia striking all NATO bases in Europe with tactical nukes or use the threat of a strike to force the US army to leave Europe. But such a scenario does not match current Russian nuclear posture and doctrine.

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    Post  limb Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:41 pm

    Backman wrote:

    Not according to starshie eddy and voenkotenok.

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    Post  LMFS Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:43 pm

    JohninMK wrote:Maybe this is what all the shouting about Russians using nukes was leading up to.

    Exactly. But even terminally deranged narcissists should know that nuking by proxy gets you nuked by Russia in return. There are no more tricks in the bag, either they hold their bluff until the end or they lose.

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    Backman
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    Post  Backman Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:46 pm

    zorobabel wrote:
    LMFS wrote:The

    Anglo maniacs do not accept anything else than surrender, they may learn that Russia does not accept anything different than sovereignty. The meaning of those talks about "striking decision centers" becomes clear now.
    US absolutely wants to goad Russia into the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

    Time will tell if Putin and co fall into the trap.

    They will just stage a nuclear attack themselves if Putin doesn't "fall in". Will they , we don't know. All we know is that its one of their ideas.

    But the Budapest mem BS looks like they might try and make Ukraine a nuclear state. But to do that the US would have to pull out of the non poliferation treaty too.

    It looks like the mobilization is more than 300,000. This is the real deal. Russia will use its manpower. There's no need for nukes at all. It looks like enough man power to counter if NATO jumps in , in the west.

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    Post  Backman Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:55 pm

    Russia's overly diplomatic reaction to the pipeline attacks is rather tiring.

    "Our pipeline has a suspicious leak. An investigation must be conducted blah blah blah"

    How about "the CIA bombed our pipelines. They said they would do it. Now they have done it. An investigation will be conducted."
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    Post  LMFS Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:57 pm

    Backman wrote:But to do that the US would have to pull out of the non poliferation treaty too.

    The US wipes his ass with NPT, what were German bombers doing some time ago, training with US tactical nukes?

    Ukraine will declare that they are facing existential threat, the West will stage some PR farce and the stage will be set for them to "defend" with nukes, striking the newly accepted regions. If Russia is attacked with nukes, US, UK and UE are history, period. I assume Putin will make this abundantly clear tomorrow, and we will see what happens next. But it is strange to take care of our daily business, with the knowledge of what is hanging over our heads. Fucking surreal, if you ask me...

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    Podlodka77
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    Post  Podlodka77 Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:00 am

    And so, little by little, what I wrote a few months ago is happening, that is, that our writing "there will be no nuclear war" means absolutely nothing.
    We are just observers and that's all. Severe psychopaths rule the West..I think that the West is in a much greater decline than is assumed, something really stinks.
    So, from guns and cannons and jets , one could switch to the most destructive armed platforms - submarines.

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    Post  Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:06 am

    New Toys...

    War Monitor
    @WarfareReports
    ⚡Near Moscow, reportedly today.


    Shahed hit on Nikolayev
    grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr........................................... Buuuuuuuuuuuum


    Last edited by Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E on Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:07 am; edited 1 time in total

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    zorobabel
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    Post  zorobabel Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:07 am

    Backman wrote:
    zorobabel wrote:
    LMFS wrote:The

    Anglo maniacs do not accept anything else than surrender, they may learn that Russia does not accept anything different than sovereignty. The meaning of those talks about "striking decision centers" becomes clear now.
    US absolutely wants to goad Russia into the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

    Time will tell if Putin and co fall into the trap.

    They will just stage a nuclear attack themselves if Putin doesn't "fall in". Will they , we don't know. All we know is that its one of their ideas.

    But the Budapest mem BS looks like they might try and make Ukraine a nuclear state. But to do that the US would have to pull out of the non poliferation treaty too.

    It looks like the mobilization is more than 300,000. This is the real deal. Russia will use its manpower. There's no need for nukes at all. It looks like enough man power to counter if NATO jumps in , in the west.
    I agree that I think the mobilization is more than 300,000, based on a few back-of-napkin calculations. The city of Azov in the Rostov region would only need to muster 165 men, based on per capita figures, but videos seemed to show a couple thousand. Even accounting for people from surrounding regions, I think the mobilization could be closer to 1 million.

    Time will tell.

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    Post  Podlodka77 Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:08 am

    Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E wrote:New Toys...

    War Monitor
    @WarfareReports
    ⚡Near Moscow, reportedly today.


    Shahed hit on Nikolayev
    grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr........................................... Buuuuuuuuuuuum


    Kamaz K-4386 Typhoon-VDV...

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    caveat emptor
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    Post  caveat emptor Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:10 am

    Backman wrote:It looks like the mobilization is more than 300,000. This is the real deal. Russia will use its manpower. 
    How did you conclude that they will mobilize more than 300 thousand people? And why?
    From what i can see in Russian sources, some heads of military enlistment offices proved to be too zealous about mobilisation and called too many people or wrong groups and were scolded for it. Even Putin came today and gave speech about the problem. 

    https://t.me/readovkanews/42855

    ❗Mobilized must undergo additional training - Putin

     Vladimir Putin discussed partial mobilization with the Russian Security Council.  The main thing:

     - Cases when doctors during mobilization enroll motorized infantry, and volunteers are “turned back” are outrageous;

     - Only citizens in the reserve are subject to the call for mobilization, first of all, those who have the required specialties and experience;

     – It is important to deal with all the mistakes during mobilization without fuss, calmly, but quickly, in detail and thoroughly;

     - In the course of partial mobilization, many questions arise, all mistakes must be corrected and prevented from happening in the future;

     - It is necessary to correct all mistakes during mobilization and return home those who are called unlawfully;

     - The Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation must immediately respond to violations during mobilization.

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    Post  zorobabel Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:11 am

    JohninMK wrote:Full list of latest US gifts, in case it wasn't already put up. Note no artillery ammo but more logistics trucks inc 40 tank etc transporters for the first time, wonder what for.


    Items in the $1.1 billion package include:

       18 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and associated ammunition
       150 Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs)
       150 Tactical Vehicles to tow weapons
       40 trucks and 80 trailers to transport heavy equipment
       Two radars for Unmanned Aerial Systems
       20 multi-mission radars
       Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems
       Tactical secure communications systems, surveillance systems, and optics
       Explosive ordnance disposal equipment
       Body armor and other field equipment
       Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment

    The total bill was $12.1 billion in aid. https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1575561838925795328 The US can pass these monthly, possibly even bi-weekly, indefinitely. Total forever-war spending in the US runs about $300b per year.
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    Post  mnztr Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:13 am

    Sometimes the Russians seem to make things less clear then they need to. The need to make it clear that ANY nuclear weapon or WMD used against Russia will result in retaliation against the USA, France and UK simultaneously with nuclear weapons. ALL 3 even if its only 1 tactical weapon. And that Russia hold the 3 nuclear powers in NATO responsible for any and all use of WMD by alliance members. It will not wait or hesitate. 1 strike = 3 strikes. The power/yield and choice of city will be proportional where possible with the understanding that the min yield for their strategic weapons is X. (100KT I think) And those are the only means of reliably striking the USA.
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    Post  caveat emptor Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:16 am

    zorobabel wrote:I agree that I think the mobilization is more than 300,000, based on a few back-of-napkin calculations. The city of Azov in the Rostov region would only need to muster 165 men, based on per capita figures, but videos seemed to show a couple thousand. Even accounting for people from surrounding regions, I think the mobilization could be closer to 1 million.

    Time will tell.
    Azov might be rallying point for certain reserve unit or close to assigned  training facility.  People in the video you saw maybe arrived from multiple different regions.

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    zorobabel
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    Post  zorobabel Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:17 am

    caveat emptor wrote:
    zorobabel wrote:I agree that I think the mobilization is more than 300,000, based on a few back-of-napkin calculations. The city of Azov in the Rostov region would only need to muster 165 men, based on per capita figures, but videos seemed to show a couple thousand. Even accounting for people from surrounding regions, I think the mobilization could be closer to 1 million.

    Time will tell.
    Azov might be rallying point for certain reserve unit or close to assigned  training facility.  People in the video you saw maybe arrived from multiple different regions.
    Agreed
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    Post  JohninMK Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:18 am

    Ispan wrote:nothing much in today's briefing, Krasny Liman is about to be surrounded, but who knows?

    https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/09/29/parte-de-guerra-29-09-2022-el-cerco-de-krasny-liman-se-estrecha/


    Part of war 09/29/2022 – the siege of Krasny Liman narrows
    29 September, 2022 Zhukov

    Summary of Yuri Podoliak 19:00 hours

    https://t.me/rpd_es/703

    Krasny Liman continues to hold out, despite the increasing pressure of the enemy who continues to advance, despite huge number of casualties. Light enemy advances were observed near Shandrigolovo and Zelenaya Dolina. Unpleasant, but not critical; the truly critical point is the village of Drobyshevo, where the BARS volunteer units are still holding out. As of 19:00, the situation has not changed substantially for either side despite the very intense fighting. The enemy did not try to attack from the Kupyansk bridgehead.

    Yuri hopes that, once the 4 regions of Ukraine are accepted into the Russian Federation next week, Moscow will present Kiev with an ultimatum, which, apparently, will be rejected. So, Yuri hopes that a "completely different war" will begin.

    The day has passed without reports, I copy Rybar's, kindly sent by a reader.





    "At the moment Liman is under pressure from the north, the Ridkodub gap is widening, the Ukronos have taken Seredne, Shrandyholove, Novoselivka, Zelana Dolyna, Kolodyazi, with reconnaissance patrols approaching Zarichne. The Svatove-Terny highway is cut off. There is only one escape route at the moment by Zarichne-Tors'ke.

    Rybar talks about extremely compromised situation due to lack of reinforcements, Liman is about to fall and the defense of the borders of Luhansk is committed.

    We will see if the command orders the retreat, otherwise it is that they intend to hold the position, perhaps thinking of an imminent counteroffensive. The Ukros in any case are throwing out the remains.»



    Ukrainian units continue to surround Liman, developing an offensive towards the territorial boundaries of the Luhansk People's Republic. The Liman garrison is fighting in an operational environment with superior enemy forces.

    ▪ On the outskirts of Liman

    The enemy tried to attack the city from three directions: from the Dibrov side, the Brusino railway station and Stary Liman. The garrison holds out, all attacks are repulsed.

    Ukrainian Forces are intensively shelling Liman with all available means of destruction, including HIMARS rockets

    ▪ North of Liman

    Units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine occupied Kolodezi, Zelenaya Dolina and cut off the Svatovo - Makeevka - Terny - Lyman highway.

    From the side of the village of Kolodezi, an enemy platonwith the support of armored vehicles, conducted a reconnaissance in combat in the direction of Zarechny (Kirovsk). After being beaten by the artillery fire of the People's Militia of the LNR, the Ukrainian formations were forced to retreat.

    Through Zarechnoye - Torskoye passes the last road connecting the Liman garrison with the territory controlled by the Allied forces. Ukrainian forces are attacking villages from the north from the side of the village of Kolodezi and from the south - from the bridgehead on the banks of the Seversky Donets.

    ▪ West of Liman

    The enemy occupied Shandrigolovo and Novoselka. The western flank of the Liman defense in Drobyshevo is held by fighters of BARS-13 and the Russian 20th combined arms army.

    In this situation, without the transfer of significant reinforcements and the concentration of the attention of the Russian command in the direction of Liman, there is a serious risk of the fall of Liman and a collapse of the defensive lines of the Russian army on the western borders of the Luhansk People's Republic.

    The President of the Donetsk Republic, Dennis Pushilin, stated at 22:40 that

    "the situation in the Krasny Liman sector remains the most difficult, but very soon there will be a turning point in favor of the Allied forces"

    24:00 hours

    https://t.me/DonbassDevushka

    "the situation is extremely difficult. The enemy strikes the main blow near Yampol and Torskoye, aiming to finally cut off the Kremennaya-Liman highway and surround our troops. Attacks with large forces supported by artillery, HIMARS and armored vehicles. Today will be a very difficult night and tomorrow a very difficult day.»



    War Gonzo

    Tonight will be decisive for Krasny Lyman. Some may skeptically say "one more time." But we confidently assert, relying on several reliable sources at once, that the situation has never been so difficult and so dangerous there. In addition to the breakthrough, to the Headquarters and the actual blockade of Drobyshev, fragmentary information was added that the battles for Yampol had also begun. The tongs around Lyman can be closed at any time. Our people are still fighting there, fighters of the militia of and of the Russian Army. The drama of the situation adds to the fact that tomorrow, it should be a solemn and historical day. Therefore, God forbid that the tragedy will not happen! We pray for you, our heroes!

    https://t.me/wargonzo/8519



    Other fronts

    Izvestia reports offensive in Artemovsk (Bakhmut)

    The Allied forces launched a crushing offensive on the entire sector of the front in the Bakhmut district, Izvestia correspondent Denis Kulaga reports.

    "You can hear how the rocket launchers and artillery are firing. There, on the front line, assault detachments are going into battle"

    https://t.me/izvestia/105724



    War crimes of Ukraine

    Shelling of a column of refugees in Kupyansk

    Militants tracked a column of refugees heading to Svatovo with drones and attacked civilians with HIMARS MLRS-source Readovka

    Ukrainian militants fired at the convoy with refugees from the Kharkov region with HIMARS rocket launchers. Ukrainian militants tracked a convoy from Kupyansk in the direction of Svatovo in LNR with drones, after which they attacked civilians.

    In total, about 40 people were traveling to Svatovo by car; at least 30 people were killed, including children. According to Readovka, five people were seriously injured: one was transported to the Rostov region, and the rest were evacuated to Moscow for further treatment. Seven other people with less serious injuries remained in NRL hospitals.

    According to the LN ambassador to Moscow, Rodion Miroshnik, two children are among the survivors. Their parents were killed in the bombing, and the children were taken to the children's hospital of the republic. Their lives are not in danger, but now they are orphans.



    About the possible Russian offensive on the Zaporozhye front

    https://t.me/south0wind/2821

    The situation with rumors about the imminent offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Zaporozhye front is more like an information campaign in Kiev, because there are no forces to open a new front. The combat line of contact in this area has been stable for a long time, Russian troops have created reserves, prepared defense lines. At least two brigades are needed for an offensive here, but there are none. There is the battered 65 Brigade and a regiment of the National Guard, less than half of 1 motorized battalion and elements of the territorial defense. With such forces, the Ukrainian army can only simulate activity and perform demonstration actions, which is exactly what they do.

    Ukrainian troops are now actively conducting offensive operations in the Krasny Liman and Kupyansk areas, less actively in the Kherson region, where the enemy is accumulating forces for another launch on Kakhovka. On the Donetsk front, Ukrainian Forces conduct defensive battles, sometimes attempting counterattacks. It is in these areas that the main forces are concentrated. The 53rd Mechanized Brigade in the Cherkasy region and the nationalist units of "Azov" in Rovno are available. But the 53rd was defeated by our troops on the Donetsk front and is licking its wounds, so it is unlikely to go anywhere for the next week or two.

    But most likely, the "Azovites" are preparing for an offensive operation in the first days of October. There are only three possible places: – Krivoy Rog direction;– Svatovo Front (north of Liman); -the Vremyevsky direction, already familiar to the militants, is a bridgehead occupied by Russian troops between Gulyai-Pole and Velikaya Novoselka. The latter option fits into the logic and repeats the plan of operation Balakleya, the success of which eliminated the threat of encirclement of the Ukrainian group of forces in the Donbass salient and allowed to align the front, and release units for further offensive in the LNR. In the case of the Vremyevsky leadership, the removal of the bridgehead will nullify the threat to block Ukrainian units conducting defensive actions in the Ugledar and Kurakhovo areas.

    It is also advisable to align the front and create prerequisites for further advance towards Berdyansk and Melitopol. Maintaining a constant threat in the Zaporozhye direction shackles the Russian troops and does not allow them to respond quickly to changes in the situation. Under such conditions, the defeat of the reserves in the Cherkassy and Rovno regions, combined with a counteroffensive in Zaporozhye, would allow Russian troops to take the initiative.
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    Post  LMFS Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:22 am

    Intel Republic

    ⚡BREAKING NEWS⚡

    Putin signs decree recognizing independence of Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, South Ukraine.

    Zaporozhye and Kherson regions of Ukraine voted overwhelmingly to join Russia in referendum carried out from 23-27 September.

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    Post  caveat emptor Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:25 am

    They are waiting for proclamation in order to properly enforce Lyman and that whole sector? That can't be correct, surely.
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    Post  Backman Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:31 am

    caveat emptor wrote:
    zorobabel wrote:I
    Time will tell.
    Azov might be rallying point for certain reserve unit or close to assigned  training facility.  People in the video you saw maybe arrived from multiple different regions.

    Just anecdotal evidence mostly. Every day , there's videos of trains pulling away , from all over Russia. North central , far east ect. For 100 men here or there , you wouldn't need trains.


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    Post  mnztr Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:34 am

    Stealthflanker wrote:Well Baranovichi has always been host to Russian fighters, since the beginning of SMO.  Google Earth image still shows some Su-30SM's and Su-34 in its Ramp in August this year.

    -------
    Also things that western friends missed or deliberately missed in mobilization :

    https://twitter.com/natashasrussia/status/1575266861238960128


    When you think about it, most produced and revered assault rifle in history. What are the chances Russia has any shortage of them, or even the new variants? None I would say.
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    Post  mnztr Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:36 am

    Military summary channels today talks about the possibility if attacking down from Belarus and closing off the main rail route to Kiev. DO IT!! I have been saying this for a while CLOSE THAT ROUTE!!!

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    Post  Backman Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:42 am

    zorobabel wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:Full list of latest US gifts, in
    The total bill was $12.1 billion in aid. https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1575561838925795328 The US can pass these monthly, possibly even bi-weekly, indefinitely. Total forever-war spending in the US runs about $300b per year.

    The US is slowly but surely getting closer and closer to its fiscal unsustainablity point. So i think you are over stating this a bit here

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    Post  JohninMK Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:44 am

    Another really good read from Big Serge laying out what he thinks is likely to happen now.

    A very sobering read for some no doubt.

    This is the intro

    I have been attempting for several days to collect my thoughts on the Russo-Ukrainian War and condense them into another analysis piece, but my efforts were consistently frustrated by the war’s stubborn refusal to sit still. After a slow, attritional grind for much of the summer, events have begun to accelerate, calling to mind a famous quip from Vladimir Lenin: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”

    This has been one of those weeks. It began with the commencement of referenda in four former Ukrainian oblasts to determine whether or not to join the Russian Federation, accompanied by Putin’s announcement that reservists would be called up to augment the force deployment in Ukraine. Further excitement bubbled up from the Baltic seabed with the mysterious destruction of the Nordstream pipelines. Nuclear rumors circulate, and all the while the war on the ground continues.

    In all, it is clear that we are currently in the transitional period towards a new phase of the war, with higher Russian force deployment, expanded rules of engagement, and greater intensity looming. Season 2 of the Special Military Operation looms, and with it the Winter of Yuri:


    https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-war-has-just-begun

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:45 am

    The US is now printing funny money by the trillion. It is in a meta-stable state where the global perception of the value of the US
    dollar is keeping it afloat. But the moment is coming when the adjustment instability kicks in and sending the funny money closer
    to its true value.

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    Post  JohninMK Fri Sep 30, 2022 12:52 am

    Baron of the Taiga
    @baronitaigas
    ·
    51m
    ⚡🇷🇺: President Putin has signed an executive decree recognizing the secession of Kherson and Zaporozhye from Ukraine. They are to be considered independent states for the next 15 hours or so, by Russian law.


    Also

    Putin has signed decrees recognizing Zaporozhye oblast and Kherson oblast as independent states. These are now independent states recognized by a UN and UNSC member⁠. Not for long, though, as tomorrow their heads⁠ together with the heads of the DPR and the LPR⁠ will sign accession agreements with the Russian Federation.

    Interestingly, the entire Zaporozhye oblast has been recognized as an independent state, although the referendum was only held on Russia-controlled territory. According to Vladimir Rogov, the chairman of We Are Together With Russia movement, another referendum will be held in the rest of Zaporozhye oblast territory after it falls under control of Russia and allies.

    BUT NO

    NO
    A period of three years is needed to adjust the legislation of the Zaporozhye region, if it decides to join the territory of the Russian Federation, while an action plan on this issue is already being worked out, Head of the military-civilian region of the Zaporozhye region Das informed the US government Yevgeny Balitsky on Thursday with.

    "We are facing a transition period of about three years," said Balitsky, who arrived in Moscow on Wednesday. "It's all related to the cadastral system of the territory and the land registry, as well as the tax payment system," Balitsky said on a program on Russian TV channel Rossiya-24, adding that the roadmap on this issue is currently being drafted.

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