A week ago, I was kind of "questioned" about my stand for this war by a guy, who could not understand that no, T-62 is not using cal. 105mm gun Laughing
He was so fuckin' sure of it!
Hahaha... 115mm smoothbore...
What happened is the plan changed. As plans normaly do in wartime. There was a plan to lure the UkroNazis out of the cities, trade territory for a lot of kills. Then at some point make a relatively small counter-offensive to crush the remaining forces and move towards Kharkov and Nikolaev.
In many ways the overall plan has not changed... they are entering a different phase of the conflict that is all... and based on progress and results they will continue to monitor what is happening and their results and likely change tempo and tactics to ensure max effect.
However, it is most likely that the mobilization will not end there, and there will be further waves, since about 500,000 people are needed to achieve parity, and about a million for a successful offensive.
The Orcs are currently extended, it might be possible to surround them with more troops and then either grind them up in larger numbers with more rifles and artillery barrels and aircraft in theatre, or perhaps accept mass surrenders... a few serious defeats might lead to internal regime changes... for the better or for the worse.
There might be factions remaining not happy with western promises who think like the people in Eastern Ukraine that their future lies with an ascending Russia instead of a corrupt and collapsing west.
In comes Kissinger, long past his prime or with any sort lucid understanding of the world situation (although I suspect he is still plenty sharp enough to understand, he just doesn't want to admit it) - to hint at America repeating the Sino-Soviet split again like in the 70s?
..What?
Except that China agreed to that because they knew they would massively benefit from that situation, but Russia and China now know they are the enemy and the US using one against the other has the purpose of actually destroying both... the same way they are using the EU (rival) against Russia(US created enemy) in Europe and want to repeat in the Pacific with Australia and the UK and India facing off against China...
It was because of people like you that all the failures at the front occurred: because of those who tried to keep silent about errors, because of those who provided incorrect data, because of those who did not want to change anything in their cozy little world full of corruption.
What failures?
Withdrawing from a force that has an enormous numbers advantage in good order with few casualties while doing damage to those enemy forces is not a failure... they did exactly what they were supposed to and tied up forces that could have been used elsewhere for more substantial gains.
And now, when the real problems of mobilization have surfaced, when the state's UNPREPAREDNESS for the current situation has been revealed, you continue to shout that everything is fine. In fact, ignoring the current reality now means letting the Ukrainians and their Washington masters kill as many Russians as possible. Are you fighting on the side of Ukraine?
All mobilisations have problems, it would be impossible for there to be no problems calling up 300K people for anything at all... the fact that it has gone so well shows they were rather well prepared.
Considering the corruption in western countries I would expect things to be orders of magnitude worse if they started mobilising forces... but their brutal suppression of information would mean you would hear nothing at all about it.
The current mobilization is not only being carried out badly, but also
1. It is being carried out with a great delay.
What delay... were you expecting a mobilised force of 300K ready to fight soldiers to step out of a magic box just after Putin signed the piece of paper?
As I said during the cold war second echelon troops would take a month to form up and get to battle and third echelon troops would take 6 months and most of their kit would be needing to be gotten out of storage and given upgrades and improvements and often quick overhauls for it to be ready.
In Desert Storm the US took 6 months to ship its armour and prepare its military force for combat.
2. Conducted on an insufficient scale. I have already written above that in order to defeat the Ukrainian army in the current conditions, about a million active personnel trained in combat operations are needed.
A force outnumbered probably 5 to one mauled the Ukrainian military, and new troops with more equipment should be able to do the same or better... it is not about matching man for man, it is about clever use of air power and artillery and mobile forces on the ground... you know.... blitzkrieg.
The Russian forces don't need to outnumber the Orcs 3 to one to win.
Where they mass up to fight then airpower and artillery can shred them, when they remain in small groups the bigger force of Russians will mop the floor with them.
And I CAN'T understand why not now mobilize, for example, 600-800 thousand, of which 300 thousand will be sent to the combat zone, and the rest will be sent to military courses lasting 4-6 months. So the state will have a strategic reserve of 300-500 thousand COMBAT-ready troops, which is NOT available now.
Because they clearly think they can get the job done with less.
The number they have mobilised was not picked from the sky... that is what they think they need.... why do you think you know better when you don't even know their plan?
Moreover, these measures should have been taken even BEFORE the start of the special operation, but this was not done. And this is an indicator of the level of incompetence of the military leadership responsible for the strategic plans of the special operation.
Before the operation started they had no idea about what was going to be the reaction of the Ukrainian people or the west... well they could guess what the west would do.
Having 800K soldiers mobilised for a year is stupid... you are stripping a significant portion of your workforce and putting them on welfare for a year and for what?
In case you might need them?
Terrible management... terrible misuse of resources...
The answer is that the alternative already exists - it's the BRICS/SCO/etc.. of allowing for moderate protectionism by countries to protect national industries, allowing each nation its own development path and respect for its governance system by other members without interference, a mix of state capitalist and free market policies rather than just pure capitalism, and a focus on spreading development around to populations in 3rd world countries rather than just enriching their elites in retur
The irony is that the struggling and thrashing of the western elite are only hastening its own demise... Putin could never have damaged the US dollar the way the US did when they used it as a weapon against Russia... leading the to stop using it and sell off all US debt they owned.
Ironically the Russians owned US debt which means the Russians were betting on the US economy to be able to pay off said debt... but the US treated them like they were the enemy... careful what you wish for.
Russia wont actively try to destroy the west or the US, but they wont act to save it now... and they will focus on creating independent world alternatives to everything the west dominates and controls and perverts... like WADA and OPICW etc etc.
Su-57 is needed in a special bomber variant with no fancy radars and OLS to keep the price down and stealthier since ols and radar are two good reflectors.
No level of stealth would protect aircraft against everything.
Just accept it... against a fraction of a Soviet Air defence system, Air Power struggles... how is that for a pill to swallow for HATO?
And this is after 8 years of proxy wars with the West.
More like 200 years...
Things could have been better though. For instance, they should have had much larger force in Ukraine in first place. And if they were sending in Rosgvardi to provide assistance, they should have trained them first for such conflict prior to being sent out. Volunteer units, which also is very large, should have actually been I corporated into a proper units with proper training and all. Maybe even called upon them to help fill in mobilized ranks instead.
Not sure why everyone seems to think Russia was planning this attack for years... if Kiev had agree to follow the Minsk agreements the whole conflict could have been avoided, which would be a stupid waste of a large mobilisation...
It was only after the attack started they found documents in Orc HQs near the front showing their attack was going to commence on the 8th of March... otherwise it was mention of bioweapons labs and nuclear weapons that was the motivation.
P.S. As for your comments about social situation in the country, i can see that if war doesn't go well, you can easily get an explosive situation in the society. Masses that work for 35k rubles will always look suspiciously at billionaires that didn't have to work a day in their life to become that and public servants with houses on French Riviera and millions of dollars in foreign bank accounts.
The enemy you are fighting thinks being a billionaire is something everyone should aspire to be and never give a second thought to those less well off than you.... a me me me society where it is OK to have more money that you could possibly need... who are currently funding nazis on your border to murder you.
3-6 months for military courses as in we were lied to that 2 weeks was all that was needed and lied again that 300k would get involved but it was 200k instead? They keep getting more equipment and might do more massive counteroffensives and they might end up eventually reaching Moscow at this rate. Just when I thought the humiliating torture was about to end in 2 weeks of getting shitted on by western media, suddenly it begins to extend.
If you have not been reading all the posts a lot of the territory the Orcs advanced through they have been pushed back from without any massive counter offensives.
No official word on how many were being mobilised... the mobilisation for the new batch is still going on... the normal conscription for this years conscripts was delayed to allow for it to continue properly... and who said anything about 2 weeks officially?
The problem is they use the Su-34 in the wrong role! Since April they haven't really taken out any ukranian AD systems anymore...I don't know why. Maybe complete incompetence?! Or most likely the russian anti-radiation-missiles suck extreme? Most likely!
Seems to me they don't use radar on their air defence vehicles any more, they use HATO support and HATO airspace tracking for warning about aircraft... which is why they fly very fast and very low, so enemy AD vehicles will struggle to get them in their crosshairs and launch weapons in optical guidance mode before the disappear amongst the trees...
It seems the Russian anti radiation missiles cleaned up a lot of AD systems and also continue to clean up battlefield radar on a regular basis too if you are paying attention.
This is amazing. Actually, no system should exist anymore and Russia should have pure air dominance!!!
What a load of rubbish... first of all Russia does have air dominance, what they don't have is supremacy. Orc aircraft get airborne only to be shot down, meaning their air power is totally useless to them for support or other ops.
A BUK vehicle covered in a tarp driven to a building and never leaving that building until they get word Russian planes are on their way could be started up and driven out of a building and the optics systems turned on waiting for cues from HATO radar that Russia can't destroy... if they miss the opportunity the vehicle goes back into the building. Thousands of buildings in a small town... which one has the BUKs?
Or maybe OSA instead... fire a missile and then run into the building for cover... they did the same thing with artillery in a disused shopping mall do you think they wont do the same with AD vehicles?
So instead bombing from above 5 km the Su-34 attacks in a deep dive under 100 m height and gets regularly smashed by manpads.
BUK can reach to 22km altitude and 35km range in the old model SA-11, and 25km and about 50km range in the later BUK models (SA-17)
At this point in the war, no Su-34 should fly less than 5 km and therefore none should be shot down. In addition, strategic bombers should operate freely over Ukraine.
Except BUK and S-300 were both designed to shoot down aircraft in serious ECM conditions without using tracking radar (ie optics)... and both can reach up and touch well above 5km.
If Russia had air dominance in Ukraine, then Ukraine would not have been able to carry out its counter-offensives and now much higher losses of its troops. Let that sink in!
If Russia had air supremacy then they could use air power rather more extensively to make the Orcs suffer greater casualties.
They agree with me since they don't send them far away. They mainly use guided missiles from time to time to be safe.
You have no idea how they are using them...
The aircraft is advertized as a bomver that can go in enemy territory yet it gets destroyed as soon as it fall in range of a AD system.
Actually it is a strike platform that would use standoff weapons in situations where the enemy air defence is still an issue.
Ukros are running tanks and even HIMARS during the day on the front.
Su-34 is a deep strike platform, such targets would be engaged by CAS and attack helicopters...
Just send it above friendly forces and destroy vehicles from 8km away. I don't see what is complicated.
Real combat is not a video game... you need to confirm targets are enemy targets and not friendly forces...
There will come a time when you get to blow your load, but untill then you must endure the foreplay and stop complaining.
Very well put.
That sounds nice in theory, but it is very hard in practice. NATO tried and failed that in Serbia in '99. What really saved their ass was that our AD system were largely obsolete at that point, that couldn't engage anything flying over 5-6 km. Early export models of KUB, Strela-1 and Strela-10M.
And if you had S-300 and BUK they would have really struggled... in fact I don't think they would have bothered...
I saw that few days ago and mistakenly said half. But still 1/4th getting downed is too much for the few sorties they make at low altitude and not deep into enemy territory.
How do you know what missions they have flown?
Rafale, su-57, Checkmate, f-35 have far greater chances to be used as a tactical bomber than this outdated su-34.
Well you can certainly scratch the F-35 from that list... the Israelis wont fly in to Syrian airspace with those... Checkmate not even flying yet, and Su-57 has operated over Orc airspace but we really don't know the details.
As for the Rafale, what amazingly strong enemy air defence systems has it proven capable of penetrating at will?
It lights up on radar like a private jet. It is so easy to destroy by AD that even the soviet systems can't be counter with it eventhough they know them from A to Z and also operate them.
If it was easy to destroy they should have lost them all shouldn't they?
The Ukrainian air force was easy to destroy and as they get airborne they are shot down just as quickly...
And let's not even talk about the pathetic use of their air force. They have planned any importabt attack or coordinated attack. They just send randomly send a pair to go here and there. Not even do they do some simple stuff like attracting AD with dumb drones and attacking with kh-31.
Most Orc aircraft seem to be shot down by the Russian AF, which suggests regular air patrols and airspace monitoring.
What coordinated or uncoordinated attacks are they mounting... you seem to have complete knowledge of their operations... please share.
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
Even the Azeri managed to do this with dumb TB2. Actually they made better use of their tb2 than russia with its all airforce.
TB2s get obliterated when one side has competent air defence... Russia has competent air defence.
It would make sense for them to now use medium sized drones to hunt for air defence systems and also attack ground targets too.
Previously they would just be shot down too easily...
The sooner they admit it's a shitty aircraft the sooner they replace it with a bomber version of su-57.
They don't need a bomber version, the Su-57 is fully multirole and able to perform strike missions as well as Air to Air.
The F-22 is only a fighter that was later adapted to carry custom made small diameter bombs because the F-22 was designed to carry AAMs and their standard sized bombs wouldn't fit.
They needed 7 months to admit their attack drone programs suck and had to buy iranian drones.
Those drones are in production, they must have purchased a production licence years ago... probably while they were fighting in Syria.
Well Russia did mess up by not making cheap cruise missiles aka suicide drones, I suppose, yes.
Drones are considered amazing in the west because conventional cruise missiles and aircraft are 100 times more expensive than they should be... drones don't make as much sense for Russia as they do for the west... not to say they are useless... but three quarters of a million dollars for each Hellfire missile or Javelin ATGM, compared with maybe 5K per Kornet ATGM which is better than either of those missiles...
They are truck launched so it makes their launch timing highly unpredictable, like Iskander-K I suppose (vs. the Kalibr or Kh-101 platforms which NATO can monitor better).
Ship and sub launch are no more predictable than truck launched...
On the other hand, what makes you think that an S-300PS or Buk-M1 can't engage a combat loaded Rafale at maximum range? Rafale isn't a stealthy plane by a long shot even if its RCS is smaller than the Su-34. Or even the wunderwaffe F-35 with external load?
The west simply does not accept that even in the 1980s where the Ukrainian air defences come from the Soviets were already working on SAMs that can operate in environments where the enemy might use extensive jamming or HARM type weapons to defeat radar and mobility and other factors allow them to operate safely despite enemy air superiority.
S-300P is an airforce system while Buk is an army system... army systems are not expecting air control and are independent of the air force.
I said they have better survivability. Rafale's spectra is the best. Everyone knows that.
How exactly would Spectra protect it from optically guided BUK missiles?
Su-34 isn't adapted for modern air wars. You need a reduced RCS.
Traditionally the solution to large RCS and enemy radar is to fly low and fast... which is something it is actually rather good at.
Su-34 has the size of a private jet and a RCS probably bigger than it with weapons. In a space protected by Rafale or typhoons equiped with radar that can detect it at more than 200km and meteors it has no chance to reach its target.
What is going to protect the Rafales and Typhoons from R-37s being launched from Su-57s protecting those Su-34s or even S-70s operating with those Su-34s?
Iskanders would obliterate the airbases the Rafales and Typhoons operate from.
ZELENSKY CALLS FOR PREEMPTIVE NUCLEAR STRIKES ON RUSSIA ***
Shouldn't he be celebrating the collapse of Russia about now...
It is time to take this clown out of the game!
Sounds like panic is setting in... he is starting to realise the position he is in...
Rafale totally jammed Slovak S-300.
Russian SAMs have home on jam functions, as well as optical guidance alternatives when enemy ESM is powerful...
HATO attack and defence is all based around one large set of aircraft... so when you are using it for one or the other any losses are magnified because you are losing defence and attack capability all at once.
HATO would not have gone in to Kosovo if Serbia had the SAMs the Ukraine has.
Su-34 are falling from the skies like moskitos in Ukraine. I don't understand how you can be that dumb and blinded to say it is a good aircraft. It's all recorded.
They even lost a su-35 equiped with "state of art" jammer. At least the Rafale manage to jamm a s-300. Flankers can't even escape some old buk and osa.
Ukraine doesn't even have an IADS, just some system here and there and they still manage to destroy them everytime they enter Ukraine.
Syria didn't have an IADS when the Israelis refused to fly into their airspace with F-35s.
Ukraine has lost over 300 aircraft and counting... the Russians don't seem to have lost more than a dozen... I doubt HATO forces invading Russian airspace would enjoy that sort of exchange ratio.
Old PESA. 120 km against a fighter size target which is target like f-15.
It is a strike aircraft that can defend itself... electronically scanned radars are vastly better than any mechanically scanned set.
Rafale has a clean rcs of around 0.5. Do the math, it can detect it at around 60km and I'm being generous.
Of course... the Su-57 is supposed to have a rcs of 0.4 so obviously the Rafale... a 4th gen fighter would have a RCS of 0.5... because magic.
Plus what sort of value is there in a fighter plane carrying no weapons...
It terrain mapping is worse than that of zhuk-M onboard mig-29smt which is a shame for a bomber.
Not sure where you are getting your information from but it is wrong.
Destroying a su-34 is far easier with radar systems than a f-117 or a rafale.
Does anyone actually know for sure what brought down any Su-34s yet?
The model S-300s the Orcs are using is the old model that are not designed to shoot down aircraft flying very low.
Without knowing anything about any shootdowns and what actually happened I find it amusing that you and others are so happy to jump to conclusions and expect no criticism for that.
and su-34 is being easily shot down with old russian systems but they don't see it.
They are designed for WWIII and in WWIII they will get shot down... even old Russian systems are very capable systems even today... in Kosovo HATO refused to fly below 8km altitude because of MANPADS... such an environment Russian helicopters and CAS aircraft operate in regularly with known thousands of examples of western MANPADS and ex Soviet type MANPADS.
Perhaps the west can prove its superiority... send a dozen Rafales and F-35s to clean up the Russian forces in a few days... but they don't seem interested in anything like that.
Equiped with air to air missile it should be still around 1m2.
But IR sensor ports and radars are what ruin the Su-57s stealth, so how could adding ARH and IR guided missiles to a Rafale make such a tiny difference to its stealth?
Spectra makes a wonderful work protecting it in such configurations anyway.
How would Spectra even work in UHF frequencies... its radar antenna is tiny... the wing mounted L band arrays in Su-35s would detect them at enormous distances and the Rafale would have no idea it has been detected...
In the topic of drones, There really isn't a problem with Russia using cheap Shahed 136 drones. In the case of drones quantity defeats quality. The more you have flying around hunting and taking out targets, who cares if you lose some drones, that's why they are cheap easy to replace
Being cheap means the quantity is their best quality.
Let the orcs waste their air defence equipment on drones... even if they shoot down a dozen send 100 more.
I am going to trim the car stuff and the Su-34 stuff to the talking bollocks thread tomorrow... it is late here right now and I am going to bed. 
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— 3 Members of United States House of Representatives for the Democratic Party introduced a bill to pull out all United States Missile defense systems and US Army troops from the Kingdoms of Saudi Arabia & UAE after the Arab Gulf countries backed OPEC+ oil cuts, which the American Government understand would favor Russia economically.
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