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From my blog comments, I was asked the question in another forum and thought it worth reposting here
My opinion about the defensive battle in Kherson
(I have not said anything stupid, what I am stating below would be endorsed by any officer, I think they will resist, my two military commentators are more pessimistic, one thinks that the Russians will lock themselves in Kherson and fight house to house like Stalingrad to bleed the Ukrainians, the other is more pessimistic and believes that the best thing would be not to get into trouble, retreat to the other side of the Dnieper and thus release troops to go on the offensive elsewhere. )
Actually I don't think the fighting will be fought in the city of Kherson, there is enough space to give ground and fight in several successive defense lines supported by the obstacles that are the irrigation canals, which go at right angles to the Ingulets River and therefore hinder the hypothetical Ukrainian advance, which in addition, to take the key population of Berislav-Novaya Kakhovka, any force advancing along the river bank would be beaten flank by the Russian artillery of the central front, which could pull from the other side of the river Dnieper. The reservoir is on average about 5-8 km wide, 152mm heavy artillery and Grad rockets reach 20 km, Uragan reach 30. That allows them to hit the road that runs parallel to the river and then some.
From Davydov Brod to Dudchany, which is the current front, there are about 40 km. If the Russians are forced to retreat to Berislav-Novaya Kakhovka, where the reservoir is, concentrated artillery on N. Kakhovka could reach up to 10-20 km of the front firing from the south bank of the Dnieper, allowing the Russians to concentrate more batteries in the northern part of the front.
Summing it up, defending a 40 km wide front in the steppe should be possible for the available Russian troops. The perimeter is very long but in reality they only have to keep the current bridgeheads on the Ingulets bottled up, and defend that 40 km front successively taking advantage of the small rivers that shorten it, such as the current position in Dudchany, and then using as positions villages, canals and the forestal plantations that act as barriers and dividers of the cultivated fields.
The evacuation of civilians from the city is simply necessary because the Antonov Bridge has become unusable and it is difficult to supply the civilian population, which frees up the capacity of the temporary pontoon bridge for military needs.
I don't think it will come to fight inside Kherson, but the Ukrainians could get close enough to have it under artillery fire and evacuation is convenient to avoid civilian casualties.
(...)
I repeat, there is no need to retreat to Kherson. The terrain is flat and makes it possible to take advantage of the range of the guns of tanks, armored vehicles and anti-tank missiles. As I explained in my post about the struggle in the fields, every tree planting along the paths separating the crop fields is an obstacle, as well as the irrigation canals. As long as the mud lasts, wheeled vehicles and many of the western Ukrainian armored vehicles get stuck and can only move forward along the roads, the terrain it is similar to Holland polders. The Ukrainians cannot repeat the success of the Kharkov offensive. The superiority in command and skill of the crews allows the Russian tanks to defeat in a maneuvering battle any ukranian armored column trying to exploit a rupture, it is highly doubtful that they will manage to advance further than by isolated companies. Aviation and attack helicopters make it possible to destroy any column that comes out in the open. Whatever the Ukros do, they will have a hard time. If they concentrate, they are crushed by artillery. If they advance scattered, that invites to be defeated in detail. Even if they break the front, which is likely, experience shows that it is enough to separate the tanks from the accompanying infantry. And unsupported tanks fall into the ambushes of infantry equipped with anti-tank missiles. And I haven't talked about the obstacle of minefields, which force a stop in any attack while lanes are being cleared. Nor I mentioned the villages in the steppe, which can be turned into strong points or defensive hedgehogs.
Ground will probably be lost and the Ukros will reach the second defensive line in Berislav, but taking the population implies hard urban fighting and time. And if they break through, there is still a third position on the Snegurovka – Kherson line, leaning on the meanders of the Ingulets River.
All this assuming an advance from the NE, any attack from the bridgeheads is ruled out, so far the Russians have contained all attacks and hold Davidov Brod. It would be better for the Ukrainian command to forget about the bridgeheads and to trying to cross the Ingulets and entrust everything to the attack on the steppe towards Berislav. A concentric attack on the Russian bridgehead of Kherson is not possible, only an advance to the southwest
It should not be forgotten that the advance lengthens the Ukrainian supply lines, exposing them to artillery and air strikes and shortens the Russian supply lines, and the front is also shortened, increasing the troop density.
I think the Russians can approach the defensive battle with confidence. They may have to give ground up to the Davidov Brod – Berislav line, but I don't think the blood will reach the river…
My opinion about the defensive battle in Kherson
(I have not said anything stupid, what I am stating below would be endorsed by any officer, I think they will resist, my two military commentators are more pessimistic, one thinks that the Russians will lock themselves in Kherson and fight house to house like Stalingrad to bleed the Ukrainians, the other is more pessimistic and believes that the best thing would be not to get into trouble, retreat to the other side of the Dnieper and thus release troops to go on the offensive elsewhere. )
Actually I don't think the fighting will be fought in the city of Kherson, there is enough space to give ground and fight in several successive defense lines supported by the obstacles that are the irrigation canals, which go at right angles to the Ingulets River and therefore hinder the hypothetical Ukrainian advance, which in addition, to take the key population of Berislav-Novaya Kakhovka, any force advancing along the river bank would be beaten flank by the Russian artillery of the central front, which could pull from the other side of the river Dnieper. The reservoir is on average about 5-8 km wide, 152mm heavy artillery and Grad rockets reach 20 km, Uragan reach 30. That allows them to hit the road that runs parallel to the river and then some.
From Davydov Brod to Dudchany, which is the current front, there are about 40 km. If the Russians are forced to retreat to Berislav-Novaya Kakhovka, where the reservoir is, concentrated artillery on N. Kakhovka could reach up to 10-20 km of the front firing from the south bank of the Dnieper, allowing the Russians to concentrate more batteries in the northern part of the front.
Summing it up, defending a 40 km wide front in the steppe should be possible for the available Russian troops. The perimeter is very long but in reality they only have to keep the current bridgeheads on the Ingulets bottled up, and defend that 40 km front successively taking advantage of the small rivers that shorten it, such as the current position in Dudchany, and then using as positions villages, canals and the forestal plantations that act as barriers and dividers of the cultivated fields.
The evacuation of civilians from the city is simply necessary because the Antonov Bridge has become unusable and it is difficult to supply the civilian population, which frees up the capacity of the temporary pontoon bridge for military needs.
I don't think it will come to fight inside Kherson, but the Ukrainians could get close enough to have it under artillery fire and evacuation is convenient to avoid civilian casualties.
(...)
I repeat, there is no need to retreat to Kherson. The terrain is flat and makes it possible to take advantage of the range of the guns of tanks, armored vehicles and anti-tank missiles. As I explained in my post about the struggle in the fields, every tree planting along the paths separating the crop fields is an obstacle, as well as the irrigation canals. As long as the mud lasts, wheeled vehicles and many of the western Ukrainian armored vehicles get stuck and can only move forward along the roads, the terrain it is similar to Holland polders. The Ukrainians cannot repeat the success of the Kharkov offensive. The superiority in command and skill of the crews allows the Russian tanks to defeat in a maneuvering battle any ukranian armored column trying to exploit a rupture, it is highly doubtful that they will manage to advance further than by isolated companies. Aviation and attack helicopters make it possible to destroy any column that comes out in the open. Whatever the Ukros do, they will have a hard time. If they concentrate, they are crushed by artillery. If they advance scattered, that invites to be defeated in detail. Even if they break the front, which is likely, experience shows that it is enough to separate the tanks from the accompanying infantry. And unsupported tanks fall into the ambushes of infantry equipped with anti-tank missiles. And I haven't talked about the obstacle of minefields, which force a stop in any attack while lanes are being cleared. Nor I mentioned the villages in the steppe, which can be turned into strong points or defensive hedgehogs.
Ground will probably be lost and the Ukros will reach the second defensive line in Berislav, but taking the population implies hard urban fighting and time. And if they break through, there is still a third position on the Snegurovka – Kherson line, leaning on the meanders of the Ingulets River.
All this assuming an advance from the NE, any attack from the bridgeheads is ruled out, so far the Russians have contained all attacks and hold Davidov Brod. It would be better for the Ukrainian command to forget about the bridgeheads and to trying to cross the Ingulets and entrust everything to the attack on the steppe towards Berislav. A concentric attack on the Russian bridgehead of Kherson is not possible, only an advance to the southwest
It should not be forgotten that the advance lengthens the Ukrainian supply lines, exposing them to artillery and air strikes and shortens the Russian supply lines, and the front is also shortened, increasing the troop density.
I think the Russians can approach the defensive battle with confidence. They may have to give ground up to the Davidov Brod – Berislav line, but I don't think the blood will reach the river…
sepheronx
