Russian special military operation in Ukraine #36

Ukrs are saying the truth only by mistake&accidentally.
But of course, they have systems capable to take down Ch-22.
S-300V.

Yes and no.

They need early warning radars to detect them first. Their S-300V are hunted by su-35 with kh-31. They aren't turned on always. Shoot an d run tactics are mostly privileged.

Their early warning radars are almost all destroyed and even new nato delivered ones are getting destroyed.

Also kh-32 fly at 40 000m. Not many radars look at such high heights. Soviet p-18, p-14, p-19... have all less than 35km range limit in altitude. Ukraine mostly uses such radars.

S-300V has its own early radar specialized for high altitude targets but who knows if they are in working conditions. I highly doubt. They are much harder to repair and maintain than a p-18.

Belisarius wrote:Air defense systems shot down a UAV over the sea towards Belbek — Governor of Sevastopol
https://t.me/intelslava/43433
Over the past 24 hours, the air defense forces of the Black Sea Fleet shot down 3 Ukrainian drones over the Black Sea that were trying to break through to the harbor and Belbek military airfield.
https://t.me/intelslava/43434

Ten incoming drones downed so far, apparently:
https://www.c-inform.info/news/id/106014

Hope to see some wreckages for IDing. It's likely some western-donated machines, flying from Nikolaev/Ochakov, but I'm still curious. The Ukrainians boasted about having finalized their own "Shahed"-like contraption a while ago, would be interesting to see proof of it existing.

Locals in Sevastopol report Russian fighters patrolling the air above the city now too. Clearly a significant (attempted) attack.

Sevastopol is extremely well-defended though, after all Russia's had to continuously defend it for nearly 250 years against all manners of attacks from Turks, Brits, French, Nazis and what not, and Ukrainians with full-on western support now, so ever since Russia founded the city it's always been a fortress.

Barring that local saboteur/infiltrateur drone strike last year, I believe nothing has actually gotten through? The unexpected USV attacks were almost successful, but now precautions have been taken to prevent those from getting close too.

Some verbal diarrhea from Viktor Medvedchuk, published by Izvestia. Since article is too long to post here, I'll just drop a link for anyone interested to read. TLDR version would be that Medvedchuk is still trying to push for version of friendly Ukraine ( with himself at its helm), after complete and utter failure of that strategy. I really hope that Kremlin has learned better and that this will not be taken into consideration. Eventually, they can put him at the helm of "new Ukraine" that would be a Russian puppet state consisting of its western Regina. East, South and Center should be directly incorporated as new regions of Russia.

https://iz.ru/1454275/viktor-medvedchuk/ukrainskii-sindrom-anatomiia-sovremennogo-voennogo-protivostoianiia

If that Wagner tactical genius move was true (I don't see why not), that perhaps explains the almost comical reluctance of Ukrainian officials to admit what happened. They were in disbelief, in short, over how rapidly they got outmaneuvered, and had to prolong an imaginary fight to make it seem less awkward.

Empty Pantsir-S boosters have been floating up on Romanian shores. Not related to today's events in Crimea (the currents aren't that swift..) but some earlier interceptions over the Black Sea.

Last year, Bayraktar wrecks also floated up on RO beaches, almost certainly related to the "Snake Island" thing, where Ukraine spent twelve recently acquired TB-2s if I recall correctly, to finally defeat the two (?) Tor-M1s that were stationed there.

I rather see Arstovych as new Ukrainian president than Medvechuk (another Yanukovitch)

Anyways, there is no political solution for Ukraine, we can safely assume that

Well, they gave him space in Izvestia, so why not use it to push own agenda? Personally, I wouldn't even exchange him.

Interesting thoughts by Sladkov on building up specialized PMC. It is something to be careful with, but Wagner turned out to be bullseye. Especially, since the start of the war.
It provides an alternative way for people with military background to pursue a career in the field.
I wonder how much Wagner's success in Ukraine is connected to Ru army inability to fight omnipresent and overwhelming bureaucracy?

https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7041

​RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE AND PRIVATE MILITARY COMPANIES: PROSPECTS FOR COOPERATION.

The idea of ​​the possible creation and introduction of new PMCs into the Ministry of Defense invigorated the information space. And I see both "yes" and "no" here.

“No”, because a private company cannot be in the structure of a public institution. And yes, because PMCs can closely cooperate with the military department on outsourcing.

If we are talking about the work of PMCs commissioned by the Ministry of Defense, why should we immediately talk about attack aircraft? Yes, our civilian builders are afraid to build a second line of defense, because missiles fly there, and civilian contractors sometimes die in whole teams.

Let's organize an engineering and fortification PMC, let specially trained and armed specialists professionally create strongholds under enemy fire. Difficult, dangerous, necessary and honorable.

Create intelligence PMCs affiliated with the Ministry of Defense (including RER), tuning of weapons, robotics and UAVs, adaptation and tailoring of equipment for various individual units, delivery, transportation and evacuation from the front line, medical PMCs.

But all this must be done in the presence of such full-time specialized units in the Ministry of Defense itself, at least for competition. Let civilians be engaged in the preparation and use of specialists of various profiles. Maybe they'll do better.

Here, what is more reliable for whom: an oath or a contract.

It seems like Wagner took Kleschevka. If it turns out to be true this will be a great step in taking Bakhmut into operational encirclement. First, they'll have to take Krasna Gora and Paraskievka in the north.

https://t.me/milinfolive/95603

According to WarGozno, the fighters of the PMC "Wagner" drove the Armed Forces of Ukraine out of Kleshcheevka, as previously reported on Twitter by a Czech mercenary.

No official confirmation from the Wagners themselves has yet been received.

@milinfolive

It looks like Sol is taken by Wagner.

https://t.me/milinfolive/95604

Military correspondent Yarem @yaremshooter informs about the capture by the fighters of PMC "Wagner" of the village of Sol, which in recent days has been the last stronghold of the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the outskirts of Soledar.

Also, according to him, the information about the capture of Kleshcheevka is premature, fighting continues for the settlement.

@milinfolive

@FP
Nothing had to be done. Putin's godfather/godson or not. Guy is a spent force for a long time. He showed his worth in 2013.

God I hope kleshcheyevka is true. The village's heights are the key to Artyomovsk.

Well he is Godfather to Putin's dog or whatever it is. Practically family. They had to extract him.

It was this asshole as the rumour goes that encouraged the Russians into the folly of thinking there are some friendly forces to work with in the Ukraine. That all it takes is to turn up and people repressed by the Ukro regime will come out from the shadows and greet Russian troops.
Of course I don't believe that Russian command was ever so naive, truly, but for sure Medvechuk certainly has not done anything to help.

"It ought to be considered, therefore, how vain are the faith and promises of those who find themselves deprived of their country. For, as to their faith, it has to be borne in mind that anytime they can return to their country by other means than yours, they will leave you and look to the other, notwithstanding whatever promises they had made you.

As to their vain hopes and promises, such is the extreme desire in them to return home, that they naturally believe many things that are false and add many others by art, so that between those they believe and those they say they believe, they fill you with hope, so that relying on them you will incur expenses in vain, or you undertake an enterprise in which you ruin yourself."
-Machiavelli

Wagner has to be the best PMC in the world bar none. No wonder African countries seek their help nowadays, instead of various western forces that somehow accomplish nothing in decades supposedly helping to fight local terrorist guerillas etc.

Others, like Blackwater/Academi, the Executive Outcomes etc probably weren't complete shit either, but they never fought against an enemy this big and well equipped (incl with top US/NATO intelligence).

It's not only Putin that is soft. This is why I am glad that Wagner is in charge around Bakhmut. There won't be humanitarian corridors or any other kind of shit there.

Yes, Ukria cannot be fully annexed. The western part is the proper Ukraine and should do what it wants, including joining NATzO.
I never bought into the hypersonic missiles in Ukria argument since they could be deployed in Poland and the Baltics. The only
value of Ukria for NATzO is a wild zone where they could launch all types of attacks on Russia and pretend they had nothing to do
with them. But rump Ukria will have much less value in this regard. NATzO snookered itself and will have to absorb this rump
when it is formed.

Not going to pretend to be a military expert, but I think Wagners successes stem from a few fundamental factors:

1. They don't need to deal with the command chain inertia that Russian regulars have to, so they can adapt much faster to changing battlefield conditions.

2. Related to the above, US SIGINT, OSINT and its many spies in Russia can't really get a good fix on them and what they're planning, as they're rather independent locally, so the Ukrainians in turn receive subpar intel to act on.

3. They don't abide by the same ROE as Russian regulars. Eg in Soledar, there were no several-week long talks of various deals, of the Pope, Sean Penn, the UN, Erdogan and god knows who. It was "you surrender by midnight or you will be killed" and that was it. Perfectly legal in war AFAIK, but markedly different from how incredibly softly such "sieges" have been carried out before by Russian regulars, and that definitely shook the Ukrainians.

4. Vast and varied combat experience, obviously. Especially in urban settings.

Yes, or destroy it all , mine it, and leave a DMZ there