Russian special military operation in Ukraine #39

China is due to present a peace plan tomorrow. I wonder if Russia will go to some Minsk again, etc. The West will rather not want to freeze the conflict. For Russia, the freezing of the conflict is also a return to 02/24/22.

dana
@dana916
·
12h
A Russian VTOL UAV was downed by the Ukrainian army in Kherson Oblast.

It was carrying a very interesting munition - a OF-62 76mm HE-FRAG projectile, normally fired from AK-176 naval gun, seen fitted with a AM-A B/V aerial PD fuze.

CyberspecNews

https://thesaker.is/the-dire-significance-of-putins-feb-21-speech/

The Russian Method Projected Forward Just as in December 2021 when Russia asked NATO for security guarantees, Russia follows the letter of the law and procedure. They gave NATO the opportunity to back down or negotiate. When they were rebuffed, Russia intervened militarily in Ukraine, about 70 days after the initial demand for negotiation with NATO.

Following the same method, in 2023, Russia has just made the legal case that the USA and NATO are at war with Russia and pose an existential threat to Russia’s existence.

It seems likely to me that in the coming weeks Russia’s ally, China, will offer a peace deal which freezes the Ukraine conflict within the current lines of contact, i.e. Ukraine conceding lost territory to Russia.

If the West rejects the offered peace, which seems fairly likely, then all of the conditions for a nuclear war will be in place. All it will take is a new provocation by NATO to trigger a first strike by Russia. Or worse, if both parties realize this is the case, both will have the incentive to strike first.

In the next 360 days we are in greater danger of a nuclear exchange between Russia and NATO than we have ever before seen. There is a 60 to 90 day window remaining for this outcome to be avoided. Let us pray that God will turn the hearts of the Western leaders away from the suicidal folly they have embraced.

Forgive if already linked. Cannot keep up.

In any case, seems like a new phase is a-comin'.... I personally doubt nuclear war will happen, but it's possibility will play a part in upcoming dynamics, principal among which is ongoing economic decline and politico-cultural disintegration of the West who will blame others for the evils visited upon them by their own elites.

It is a Water Hare year. Things might flow downhill (water) rapidly (hare)!

It seems likely to me that in the coming weeks Russia’s ally, China, will offer a peace deal which freezes the Ukraine conflict within the current lines of contact, i.e. Ukraine conceding lost territory to Russia. wrote:

Yes, and Russia will now agree to freeze the conflict. For Ukraine to arm itself over the next months and go on the attack. Minsk didn't teach them anything?

Summary here

Kyiv is preparing an armed provocation against Transnistria with the participation of Azov*

This was reported in the Ministry of Defense of Russia. The Ukrainian military is planning to carry out a staged attack.

For staging, Kyiv plans to imitate the alleged offensive of Russian troops from the territory of Transnistria

The regime plans to involve units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Azov for execution *.

Ukrainian saboteurs to participate in the production will be dressed in the uniform of the military personnel of the RF Armed Forces.

The Ministry of Defense of Russia is closely monitoring the situation on the border between Ukraine and Pridnestrovie and is ready to respond to any changes in the situation.


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/34595

Chinese investment in Ukraine and will not close the door on EU membership but no NATO. wrote:

Joining the EU is like joining NATO. The entire EU is under the influence of the US, it is a vassal of the US. So if they agree to it, they're morons.

the Chinese deal will also include and end to all sanctions, so it will be a non starter. wrote:

In the current situation, any agreement between Russia and Ukraine that is not a capitulation of Ukraine is a failure for Russia.

, the long awaited offensive will roll wrote:

Oh such a great mythical offensive that many people here look forward to. There will be no such attack.

Zelensky accepted the loss of Artemivsk for two reasons, by Dmitry Bavyrin for VZGLYAD, 02.23.2023.

The armed forces of the Russian Federation are fighting in the center of Artemovsk, which has turned into a meat grinder for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in recent weeks. Two days before, the President of Ukraine abruptly changed his tone: the city, on which so many resources were spent, turns out to be not too big and significant, so they will not hold it to the last. But this is not just an admission of the inevitable. This is the end of a new round of the propaganda game.

"No one will hand over Bakhmut." This is how Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke about the Russian city of Artyomovsk in early February, while urging the West to equip the Armed Forces of Ukraine with more long-range weapons.

By that time, fierce fighting had been going on in the city for several weeks. It simultaneously turned into a meat grinder for the armed forces of Ukraine and a propaganda myth about an impregnable Ukrainian citadel that will never be surrendered.

The strategic (in terms of the further liberation of Donbass) position of the city has not been canceled either, about which the VZGLYAD newspaper wrote in detail . But now Zelensky speaks of it as a small population (which is true: about 70 thousand before the start of the NWO, much less now) and as if insignificant, as if personally destroying the myth with propaganda.

According to him, Artemovsk will not be held "at any cost" and "so that everyone perishes."

Why such a sharp change in rhetoric - it's not Newton's binomial. The city was taken into a semicircle , Ukrainian troops were driven out of its northern part, the Ukrainian command was withdrawn , and the evacuation of residents of the liberated territories began. The Ukrainian Bakhmut is doomed, the Russian Artemovsk comes into its own - the fighting is going on practically in the center.

The same happened with Mariupol, Soledar and other "strongholds", from which, according to the previous assurances of Ukrainian officials, the Armed Forces of Ukraine "will not retreat for anything."

Therefore, an impregnable fortress of strategic importance is gradually turning into a grape from a well-known fable, which is “too green” to be upset by the impossibility of possessing it.

But there is another important point. In fact, Zelensky managed to “sell” the surrender of Artemivsk to the West and, above all, to the United States, although somewhat cheaper than he originally expected.

The fact is that, judging by numerous publications in Western publications, consultants from America have long persuaded Kyiv not to waste manpower in Artemovsk and focus on preparing a counteroffensive in the direction of the Russian Crimea. This counteroffensive should turn the tide of the conflict and prove that the aid sent to Kyiv makes sense. Billions, they say, have been spent - drive the results.

It is believed that this is what US President Joe Biden insisted on during his surprise visit to Kiev . In other words, the Americans persuaded Zelensky to follow their tactics, and it “persuaded” by receiving the long-awaited tanks, longer-range weapons and the very visit of Biden, as if blessing the spring counteroffensive.

But the question arises - what prevented Zelensky from agreeing with the NATO wise men before, without driving more and more units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the " Artyomov meat grinder "? Why was the decision to save the lives of the soldiers not made at least a month earlier, although the end would still the same?

Because cutting costs for Ukraine and Ukrainians is not what Zelensky succeeds in, and not what he aspires to. The main thing for him is an information picture, PR, propaganda. Ukraine has always been strong in this, his own team is strong, he himself is strong - as a specialized specialist in the show.

The obviously doomed and expensive defense of Artemovsk (from the Ukrainian point of view - Bakhmut) was just that show. Whatever the military strategists say, the majority of both voters and elites in the West understand this genre more clearly, they say, the Ukrainian city is heroically resisting and will not surrender, but you need help.

Those who are forced to retreat want to help much less: victories always have many co-authors, and defeat is always lonely.

One way or another, against the backdrop of this show, Zelensky finally managed to beg for tanks and some other “wunderwaffes”. If (more precisely, when) this counter-offensive bogs down, the Supreme Commander will play what he has played more than once before - he will declare that everything would be different if the AFU were provided with fighters and even more long-range missiles. Then they will be begged for under the guise of defending another "impregnable fortress", probably Slavyansk or Kramatorsk, into the meat grinder of which hundreds and thousands of citizens of Ukraine will be sent.

But the plot with Artemovsk has been squeezed out to the end: it brought tanks, there are no fighters yet, but in general the proclaimed task of both Kyiv and the West does not change - the military defeat of Russia. So much effort and money has already been spent on this project that it is more likely that Zelensky will actually receive long-range missiles and fourth-generation fighters than the leaders of the United States and NATO will admit their mistakes.

What Zelenskiy doesn't want to think about is the rules of the game, outlined by Russia. According to these rules, the longer the conflict continues, the more it will cost Ukraine not only in soldiers, but also in territories.

In order to prevent the SVO, it was enough to give up the dream of the return of the Crimea and give the Donbas self-government even less than that of Catalonia in Spain.

To curtail the operation in a matter of days, it was worth officially releasing the Republic of Donbass. Now, the losses of Ukraine will include at least the territory of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. But this is far from the limit.

As the President of the Russian Federation emphasized in his message to the Federal Assembly , the more long-range weapons the West supplies the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the further Russia's border will have to be pushed back, based on the principles of its security.

In other words, if later long-range missiles appear in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they will have to retreat much further than the borders of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.

In the defense of the Kyiv region, intercontinental ballistic missiles with a nuclear charge will most likely be announced as the key to the success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The hope that by that time the Western world will get tired of the Ukrainian deadly show still remains, no matter what Biden claims . We have already heard a lot of statements destroyed by the Russian army, and the legend of the “impregnable Bakhmut” is just another of them.

If it does not get tired and does not see clearly, the total cost of this show risks becoming unbearable not only for Ukraine and Europe.

https://vz.ru/politics/2023/2/22/1200311.html

Yes I agree with Kiko article

Putin already said, if longer range weapons are supplied them the borders will be pushed back

Which is alluding to a big offensive

You have to be an idiot to deny that after months of tanks and weapons streaming to the border, unknown amounts of troops , increasing production of every weapons available, and the commander in chief himself announcing an expansion of SMO

To deny an offensive is in the works, if Putin himself is saying this, then it should be taken at face value

The guy only speaks what he means

Yesterday, Ukros shelled Belgorod

So the longer range weapons are there, and it will only increase

The offensive will start soon, there are peace proposals by China which will fail, and pullout from START which is big news

Then 2 trains derail, uranium plants catch fire, other plants on fire, in the span of 2 weeks

The naughty FSB is only preparing the field

To deny shelling of Russian territory, Kharkov is a must

And to deny shelling of Crimea, Kherson, Donbass, they must push into Dnipro and Poltava

Which lies behind Kramatorsk-Slavyansk and Ugledar fortresses